Upload
augusta-kristina-welch
View
216
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Balance of payments and related statistics:
a European perspective
Rodrigo Oliveira-SoaresDublin, 23 February 2012
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.
2
Outline
• Introduction
• ECB Monetary policy
• Monitoring macroeconomic
imbalances
• Macroeconomic oversight
• Euro area statistics
3
Introduction
"a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty."
Wilson Allen Wallis (1912–1998),
US economist and statistician.
4
Monetary policy of the ECB
5
Monetary policy of the ECB
Relationship between balance of payments and international investment position
6
Monetary policy of the ECB
Euro area as a whole
Risks to price stability
Flows affecting monetary conditions and
exchange rate markets
Macroeconomic projections
Quarterly sector accounts
7
Monetary policy of the ECB
Euro area as a whole
Balance of paymentsMonthlyQuarterly vs. main counterparts
International investment positionQuarterlyAnnual vs. main counterparts
Data in public data warehousehttp://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/
8
Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances
Current-account balances, euro-area Member States (as % of GDP) – Surplus and deficit countries
Source: European Commission
9
Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances
Source: European Commission
10
Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances
Improve EU economic governance
Alert mechanism to prevent and correct imbalances.
Early warning system based on 10 economic indicators of competitiveness, among which:
Current account balance
Net international investment position
Export market shares of goods and services
11
Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system
12
Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system
Independent EU body reduce systemic risks to financial stability avoid financial distress smooth functioning of the internal market
Set of indicators (White Book), including: Current account balance Gross external debt Net interest payments
13
Statistics for the euro area as a whole
How do we gather statistics?
Transactions and positions with non-residents (“extra”)
17 countries + ECB own accounts
ECB Guideline and Recommendation
Portfolio investment– security-by-security– centralised database
14
Statistics for the euro area as a whole
Implementation of new standards by 2014
Timely quarterly statistics Consistency with national accounts Relevance of the international investment position Financial intermediaries Investment fund shares Listed / non-listed equity
15
Thank you for your attention
Questions?