Accepted Manuscript

Balancing water demand for the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China

Feng Wu, Yuping Bai, Yali Zhang, Zhihui Li

PII: S1474-7065(16)30212-1

DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2017.07.002

Reference: JPCE 2627

To appear in: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

Received Date: 22 August 2016

Revised Date: 6 April 2017

Accepted Date: 5 July 2017

Please cite this article as: Wu, F., Bai, Y., Zhang, Y., Li, Z., Balancing water demand for the Heihe RiverBasin in Northwest China, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth (2017), doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2017.07.002.

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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

Balancing water demand for the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China

Feng Wu 1, 2*, Yuping Bai1, 2, 3, Yali Zhang1, 2 Zhihui Li1, 2, 3

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,

Beijing 100101, China. 2. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China. 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100149, China.

Abstract

Water resource crisis becomes the most serious threat to global economic sustainable

development. Balancing water demand under the pressure of economic development

is a new challenge faced by water resource managers. In this study, we investigated

the mutual feedback mechanism between economic systems and eco-hydrological

processes in the Heihe River Basin of China with a Water Economic Model (WEM).

The WEM is built based on input-output table that embeds water-land resource factors

and focuses on the interactive route between water resource and economic elements.

On one hand, we investigated the routes and patterns of how eco-hydrological

processes acted on economic systems in the upstream of Heihe River Basin, and

analyzed how climate change disturbed the economic systems through its impacts on

water yield. On the other hand, we explored the feedback of economic systems on

eco-hydrological processes through land use interface. We determined the key

parameters of simulation and designed the economic development scenarios for the

Heihe River Basin. Based on the WEM, we simulated the change of water demand

under urbanization and industrial transformation scenarios, supporting scientific basis

for the water resource management and policy.

Keywords: Hydro-economic; Input-output table; Heihe River Basin; Scenario

analysis

1. Introduction

The rapid economic development and continuous population boom aggravate regional

water resource supply-demand contradiction. Characterizing the double drives of

climate change and economic system on water resource evolution is a new challenge

faced by water resource managers (Deng et al., 2015). United Nations Environment

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