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Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 1
Water Resource ManagementChallenges in the 21st Century
Balázs M. FeketeDepartment of Civil Engineering
CUNY CREST InstituteCUNY Environmental CrossRoads Initiative
The City College of New YorkCity University of New York
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 2
Planetary Boundaries
Rockström et al., Nature 2009
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 3
Balanced Triangle
Bogardi et al., COSUST 2013
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 4
Desert Locust
Swarm size: 1200 km2
Density: 40-80×106 llt/km2
Weight: 2g
http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/bugs/locust.html
ppl/km2 ha/ppl
World 51.2 1.96
Urban 943.9 0.11
Urban + Cultivated 350.2 0.29
Australia 2.8 36.1
Bangladesh 1083.7 0.09
European Union 113.7 0.88
Hungary 106.5 0.94
India 351.9 0.26
Japan 336.3 0.30
The Netherlands 402.4 0.25
United States 31.2 2.98
Desert Locust Swarm 1100.0 0.09
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 5
Physical Boundaries
Population Density ppl/km2 ha/ppl
Eurpean Union 113.7 0.880
India 351.9 0.284
United States 31.2 3.205
World 51.2 1.953
Urban 943.9 0.106
Urban + Cultivated 350.2 0.286
Population Density ppl/km2 ha/ppl
New York, USA 1,776 0.056
Paris, France 2,845 0.035
Tokyo, Japan 4,357 0.023
Beijing, China 5,216 0.019
Kathmandu, Nepal 18,433 0.054
Lima, Peru 14,506 0.069
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 6
Do the Math
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 7
Doubled Energy Use Distribution
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Per Capita [W] Total [TW] Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Population
Pe
r C
apita
Co
nsum
ptio
n [
W]
Tota
l Con
sum
ptio
n [T
W]
2000 kCal day-1 ~ 100 W Solar insolation over land is 183 W m-2
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 8
Random Numbers
● 0.9 billion people has no access to safe drinking water
● 2.3 billion people has no piped water in their home● 2.6 billion people has no proper sanitation● 1.1 billion people defecate in the open● 2 million people (mostly children) die every year
due to diarrheal diseases (285/million)● 70,000 mostly elderly people died (harvesting) in
the 2003 European heatwave affecting 0.5 billion population (140/million)
● 184 l/capita released untreated would require 18,720 km3 yr-1 dilution water
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 9
Global Freshwater Fluxes to Oceans
Source Discharge
Baumgartner and Reichel (1975) 37,713
Korzoun et al. (1978) 46,900
L’vovich et al. (1990) 39,700
Oki et al. (1995) 22,311
Postel, et al. (1996) 40,700
Grabs, et al. (1996) 42,700
Nijssen et al. (2001) 36,103
Fekete, et al. (2002) 38,320
Dai, et al. (2009) 37,288
Schlosser and Houser (2007) 36,000
Syed et al. (2010) 32,851
Wisser et al. (2010a) 37,405
Haddeland et al. (2011) 42,000 – 66,000
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 10
Climate Drivers and Runoff Response
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0Min. Max.
StdDev StdDev-
Air
Tem
per
atu
re [º
C]
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0AM GO OS
TG Max. StdDev
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0AM GO OS
TG Max. StdDev
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
-1000-800-600-400-200
0200400600800
1000Minimum Maximum
StdDev StdDev-
Pre
cipi
tatio
n [
mm
/yr]
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300AM GO OS
TG StdDev StdDev-
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300AM GO OS
TG StdDev StdDev-
20th Century 2030 2050
-100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Run
off C
han
ge [m
m/y
r]
-60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00
-75.0
-55.0
-35.0
-15.0
5.0
25.0
45.0
65.0
AM GO OS TG
-60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00
-75.0
-55.0
-35.0
-15.0
5.0
25.0
45.0
65.0
AM GO OS TG
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 11
GCM Climate Forcings
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 12
Runoff Estimates Using ISI-MIP Data
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5
Time [yr]
Run
off [
mm
/yr]
HadGEM2-ES
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5
Time [yr]
Run
off [
mm
/yr]
IPSL-CM5A-LR
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5
Time [yr]
Run
off [
mm
/yr]
GFDL-ESM2M
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
250
300
350
400
450
500
RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5
Time [yr]
Run
off [
mm
/yr]
NorESM1-M
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 13
Temperature Stations in NCDC
D'Aleo and Watts, 2010
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 14
Tornado Graph of GRDC's Data Archive
Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 15
Information Age