BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE

How Big is the Threat?How Big is the Threat?

Bush’s promise• 2000- Campaign pledge to deploy an effective missile

shield• Presidential Promise

• December 17th, 2002- Promised to have a Ballistic Missile Defense Program running by 2004-2005– Presidential Address

Is the threat to the United States strong enough to merit rushing an incomplete

Ballistic Missile Defense Program?• Important to understand the threat in order to plan an appropriate

defense• 2 opposing camps

– Proponents of ballistic missile defense• Conservatives• Believe that an imminent threat exists that makes it necessary to speed up our ballistic

missile defense program– Opponents of ballistic missile defense

• Liberals• Believe that the threat that the United States presently faces from the nuclear states is

not great enough to merit rushing a defense program that has not been fully developed

Main points of Disagreement

• Testing• Costs• Countermeasures

Is testing necessary?• Proponents

– Not necessary to test– Testing will reveal

the secrets of our defense capabilities

– Current defensive capabilities are sufficient for primitive nuclear missile attacks

– Test

• Opponents– Only 8 of the 19 tests have been conducted, and

with mixed results• Tests start out simple and get more complex• Only simple tests have been conducted; still in R

& D phase– Tests that have been conducted have not been

accurate because the testing conditions were not realistic

• Simplified tests• Involved “surrogate components” (i.e. slower

defensive rockets than the ones that would be used in a real situation; GPS satellites)

– The government has been misrepresenting the testing success they have had

• NY Times April 18th, May 18th• Wall Street Journal January 14th 2000

Is the present threat great enough to justify the costs of

BMD?• Proponents

– Defense needs to be number one priority of the United States government

– The nuclear states, specifically North Korea, Russia, China, Iran and Iraq, have made huge technological gains

• Most countries that have the technology can produce nuclear arms within a matter of months

• Russia and China have long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States

• North Korea, Iran and Iraq are within 10 years of having missiles that can reach United States

• Opponents– The government is devoting too

much money to ballistic missile defense

• 10 billion dollars a year too much to spend

• Spending billions of dollars to defend against a threat that does not exist

– North Korea not as much of a military threat as a proliferation threat

• Country low on money- can’t even afford the fuel to keep their fighter pilots in the air

• It is profitable to sell nuclear secrets and materials

The question of countermeasures

• Proponents– The nations that we face as

threats do not possess the ability to produce countermeasures complex enough to deceive our defenses

• Must keep in mind who it is we are defending against (North Korea’s economic resources; sophistication of Soviet Union)

• We have prepared for countermeasures which are far more complex than anything the offense could use

• Opponents– Too many unknowns

• BMD program cannot be pushed forward before we understand how to deal with the countermeasures of the offense

• We do not yet know what countermeasures are within the technological capabilities of the threatening nuclear states, nor how effective our program would be in defending against them

– Countermeasures

Question: So, what does the rest of America think?Answer: It depends on who you talk to

• Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA)– Conducted polls of

registered voters in AZ, MS, NH, SC and PA over the past year (most recent 05/26/04)

– 78% support the plan to deploy a partial missile defense system in 2004

Insert graph here

The Other Side of Public Opinion:

• Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers– April 2000 survey of 1000

adults was conducted by the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, the Council for a Livable World Education Fund, and the Fourth Freedom Forum

– 59% support waiting to decide on deployment of national missile defenses until after the 19 tests are complete

How Can This Be?• Contradicting polls results have been published on

a continual basis over the past 10 years• Both sides use techniques to skew the results:

– Preliminary questions to elevate concerns• Remind people about continuing Russian/ Chinese threat

– Introductory clause• “knowing that…” (US cannot currently stop one incoming

missile…/ many scientists conclude that it is unlikely such a system will work…)

– Compare costs to another cause (popular/unpopular)• Health care and education/ peacekeeping in Bosnia

What Does This Mean?

• Poll results do not always give an accurate representation of public opinion

• The ease at which the opinions of respondents can be skewed could indicate a general lack of knowledge of Ballistic Missile Defense, and lack of exposure to all sides of the issue

• Political propaganda, world events, and the media are also reasons for constant fluctuations in results

Where Do You Stand?

Work Cited• Special Thanks To:

– Dean Wilkening– Michael May– Carlos Seligo

– Dena Slothower• Work Cited

– Butler, Richard. Fatal Choice. Cambridge: Westview Press, 2001.– Carter, Ashton B. ed. and N. Schwartz, ed. Ballistic Missile Defense. Washington D.C.:

The Brookings Institution, 1984.– www.clw.org/coalition/pollmd2.htm

– http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/ohanlon/20040412.htm– http://www.state.gov/t/ac/rls/fs/2001/4892.htm

– http://www.ucsusa.org/– http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/12/20021217.html

– http://www.clw.org/pub/clw/coalition/polling.htm#bmd