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Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 CEO Rune Bjerke

Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

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Page 1: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial

crisis

London, 5 October 2011 CEO Rune Bjerke

Page 2: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

Reflection 1:

Stick to your strategy

Retail Corporate

50% 50%

2

Page 3: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

3

Reflection 2:

Have a sustainable industry sector strategy

Page 4: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

4

Our international presence reflects our strategy

Singapore

Chennai

Hong Kong

Shanghai

Mumbai

Rio de Janeiro Santiago

Houston

New York

London

Oslo

Page 5: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

Reflection 3:

Norway has unique advantages in times of crisis

5

Public net wealth, per cent of GDP (2011)

Source: IMF (World Economic Outlook), DnB NOR Markets and Revised National Budget

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

General government financial balance (in per cent of GDP)

Page 6: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

The Norwegian oil age is not yet over

6 Source: DnB NOR Markets

2600

1900

1200

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Mmbbl Original reserves on the Norwegian shelf

Page 7: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

One of the fastest growing populations in Europe

7

Annual population growth in urban areas

> 750 000 inhabitants, 2005-2010

Estimated population growth in Europe

2010-2030*

Source: United Nations population division, World population prospects: The 2010 revision

Oslo

Norway

Istanbul

Turkey

Madrid

Spain

Toulouse

France

Munich

Germany

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

Norway

UK

Sweden

France

Denmark

Germany

Per cent

*Indexed, 2010 = 100

Page 8: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

8

Household financial wealth exceeds household debt

Norwegians savings June 2010 Households wealth and debt June 2010

Deposits

and cashEquity and

bonds

Other

financial wealth

Holiday

housing

Residential homes**

Billion NOK

Insurance funds*

Mutual funds

*Occupational pension, private pension, life insurance savings etc. ** Finance Norway’s estimates

Page 9: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

9

Reflection 4:

Liquidity is crucial

2.43

4.40

1

2

3

4

5

2008 2009 2010 2011

Average life of long-term funding (Senior debt and covered bonds)

Share of stable long-term funding*

*Deposits from customers, subordinated debt, covered bonds and senior debt > 12 months residual maturity

80 %

85 %

90 %

95 %

100 %

105 %

110 %

2003 2005 2007 2009 1 H

2011

Page 10: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

10

Solid access to short term funding

Outstanding in USCP/YCD/ECP/CD USD million

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

USCP ECP/CD YCD

Page 11: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

Reflection 5:

New regulations emerge – start to adapt as soon as possible

• Prepare for the schedule presented in December 2010 Implementation

• Leverage ratio best among Nordic peers Leverage ratio

• Capitalisation above expected requirements Capitalisation

• On track Liquidity

11

Basel III - four main issues

Page 12: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

DnB NOR is adequately capitalised

9.2 %

11.2 %

Expected range

10.0 – 12.0 %

9.8 %

11.9 %

Expected range 12.0 – 14.0%

CE T1 ratio CE T1 ratio New standard

T1 ratio T1 ratio New standard Full IRB Full IRB

*Common Equity T1 and Equity T1 for DnB NOR as of 30 June 2011, including 50 per cent of profit for the period

Capitalisation of DnB NOR as of 30 June 2011* compared to expected new Basel III standards

12

Page 13: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

Reflection 6:

Cost focus increases following a crisis

13

Streamlining of business processes

Consolidation and centralisation

Improving procurement routines

Reorganising IT operations

350-400

300-400

200-250

NOK million

Increased cost savings (NOK million)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2011 2012 2013 2014

50 -100

Page 14: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

14

Reflection 7:

The market is sensible to fluctuations in the shipping industry

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600 2009 2010

Actual write-downs vs. expectations

MNOK

Market

expectations DnB NOR

expectations Actual

Page 15: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

15

Our clients are not solely dependent on the spot market

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

SPOT RATES DnB NOR Base case

DnB NOR Risk case

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

SPOT RATES DnB NOR Base Case

DnB NOR risk case

Dry bulk (USD/day)*

Tankers (USD/day)**

60 per cent of our portfolio has an average coverage of 50 per cent in

2012

75 per cent of our portfolio has an average contract coverage of 30 per

cent in 2012

*Spot rates for dry-bulk capesize vessels last 10 years vs. DnB NOR's assumptions **Spot rates for VLCC tanker vessels last 10 years vs. DnB NOR's assumptions

Page 16: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

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Reflection 8:

The perception of state ownership can change rapidly

100% private State share ownership

Top 30 European banks – state share ownership 30 June 2007*

*Top 30 in terms of Tier 1 capital. Source: The Banker and company reports

Page 17: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

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Reflection 8:

The perception of state ownership can change rapidly

Top 30 European banks – state share ownership 30 September 2011*

100% private State share ownership

* Top 30 in terms of Tier 1 capital Source: The Banker and company reports

Page 18: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

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Reflection 9:

It's all about image and reputation

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

07.08 01.09 07.09 01.10 07.10 01.11

Deutsche Bank HSBC Barclays

Lloyds TSB Royal Bank of Scotland DnB NOR

Danske Bank Nordea

Image development 2008 -2010

Source: Brandindex, YouGov 2011

Page 19: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

19

Reflection 10:

Crisis can create opportunities

DnB NOR’s position ranked by market value 31 Dec 2006

Nordic countries

6

Europe

34

Global

83

DnB NORs posisjon målt etter markedsverdi 30. Juni 2011

Norden

2

Europa

20

Globalt

67

Page 20: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs

20

Reflection 10:

Crisis can create opportunities

DnB NOR’s position ranked by market value - 31 Dec 2006

Nordic countries

6

Europe

34

Global

83

DnB NOR’s position ranked by market value - 30 June 2011

Nordic countries

2

Europe

20

Global

67

Page 21: Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial crisis London, 5 October 2011 ... Actual write-downs vs