Bank of England inflation report - May 2012

7/31/2019 Bank of England inflation report - May 2012

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Cgnb`}cdg [axd{}

O`s ;80;


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K@GL DN AGFB@GM

Cgnb`}cdg [axd{}O`s ;80;

Cg d{ma{ }d o`cg}`cg x{cja z}`kcbc}s" }ea Fd~a{goag} e`z za} }ea K`glz Odga}`{s Xdbcjs

Jdooc}}aa %OXJ# ` }`{fa} nd{ }ea `ggq`b cgnb`}cdg {`}a dn }ea Jdgzqoa{ X{cjaz Cgmau dn ;!'

Zqkiaj} }d }e`}" }ea OXJ cz `bzd {apqc{am }d zqxxd{} }ea Fd~a{goag}z dkiaj}c~a dn o`cg}`cgcgf

ecfe `gm z}`kba f{dv}e `gm aoxbdsoag}'

]ea Cgnb`}cdg [axd{} cz x{dmqjam pq`{}a{bs ks K`gl z}`nn qgma{ }ea fqcm`gja dn }ea oaoka{z dn

}ea Odga}`{s Xdbcjs Jdooc}}aa' C} za{~az }vd xq{xdzaz' Nc{z}" c}z x{ax`{`}cdg x{d~cmaz `

jdox{aeagzc~a `gm nd{v`{m/bddlcgf n{òavd{l nd{ mczjqzzcdg òdgf OXJ oaoka{z `z `g `cm }d

dq{ majczcdg o`lcgf' Zajdgm" c}z xqkbcj`}cdg `bbdvz qz }d ze`{a dq{ }ecglcgf `gm auxb`cg }ea

{a`zdgz nd{ dq{ majczcdgz }d }edza vedo }eas `nnaj}'

@b}edqfe gd} a~a{s oaoka{ vcbb `f{aa vc}e a~a{s `zzqox}cdg dg vecje dq{ x{diaj}cdgz `{a

k`zam" }ea n`g je`{}z {ax{azag} }ea OXJz kaz} jdbbaj}c~a iqmfaoag} `kdq} }ea odz} bclabs x`}ez

nd{ cgnb`}cdg `gm dq}xq}" `gm }ea qgja{}`cg}caz zq{{dqgmcgf }edza jag}{`b x{diaj}cdgz'

]ecz [axd{} e`z kaag x{ax`{am `gm xqkbczeam ks }ea K`gl dn Agfb`gm cg `jjd{m`gja vc}e

zaj}cdg 05 dn }ea K`gl dn Agfb`gm @j} 0335'

]ea Odga}`{s Xdbcjs Jdooc}}aa9

Oa{~sg Lcgf" Fd~a{gd{

Je`{baz Ka`g" Maxq}s Fd~a{gd{ {azxdgzckba nd{ odga}`{s xdbcjs

X`qb ]qjla{" Maxq}s Fd~a{gd{ {azxdgzckba nd{ ncg`gjc`b z}`kcbc}s

Kag K{d`mkag}

Zxagja{ M`ba

X`qb Nczea{

M`~cm Ocbaz

@mò Xdzag

O`{}cg Va`ba

]ea D~a{~cav dn }ecz Cgnb`}cdg [axd{} cz `~`cb`kba dg }ea K`glz vakzc}a `}

vvv'k`gldnagfb`gm'jd'ql$xqkbcj`}cdgz$X`faz$cgnb`}cdg{axd{}$cgn{ax'`zxu'

]ea ag}c{a [axd{} cz `~`cb`kba cg XMN `}

vvv'k`gldnagfb`gm'jd'ql$xqkbcj`}cdgz$X`faz$cgnb`}cdg{axd{}$c{0;8;'`zxu'

Xdva{Xdcg} ~a{zcdgz dn }ea je`{}z cg }ecz [axd{} `gm }ea m`}`

qgma{bscgf odz} dn }ea je`{}z `{a x{d~cmam `}

vvv'k`gldnagfb`gm'jd'ql$xqkbcj`}cdgz$X`faz$cgnb`}cdg{axd{}$c{0;8;'`zxu'


4/56


5/56

D~a{~cav 1

0 Odgas `gm `zza} x{cjaz 3

0'0 Odga}`{s xdbcjs 3

0'; Odgas 00

0': Ncg`gjc`b o`{la}z 0;0'= J{amc} jdgmc}cdgz 01

Kdu Odga}`{s xdbcjs zcgja }ea Nak{q`{s [axd{} 08

; Mao`gm 06

;'0 Mdoaz}cj mao`gm 06

;'; Au}a{g`b mao`gm `gm QL }{`ma ;8

Kdu Oa`zq{cgf {a`b fd~a{goag} jdgzqox}cdg ;0

: Dq}xq} `gm zqxxbs ;=

:'0 Dq}xq} ;=

:'; B`kdq{ mao`gm `gm zqxxbs ;1

:': X{dmqj}c~c}s gm jdox`gcaz zx`{a j`x`jc}s ;3

Kdu ]ea cox`j} dn zxajc`b n`j}d{z dg }ea x`}e dn FMX f{dv}e cg ;80; ;>

= Jdz}z `gm x{cjaz :0

='0 Jdgzqoa{ x{cjaz :0

='; Au}a{g`b cgnbqagjaz dg cgnb`}cdg :;

=': Mdoaz}cj cgnbqagjaz dg cgnb`}cdg :1

Kdu [ajag} ma~abdxoag}z cg odg}ebs cgnb`}cdg {`}az ::

1 X{dzxaj}z nd{ cgnb`}cdg :5

1'0 ]ea x{diaj}cdgz nd{ mao`gm gm cgnb`}cdg :5

1'; Las iqmfaoag}z `gm {czlz =;

1': Zqoo`{s `gm }ea xdbcjs majczcdg =6

Kdu Ncg`gjc`b gm aga{fs o`{la} zzqox}cdgz =8Kdu D}ea{ nd{aj`z}a{z auxaj}`}cdgz =5

Cgmau dn je`{}z `gm }`kbaz =3

X{azz Gd}cjaz 10

Fbdzz`{s `gm d}ea{ cgnd{o`}cdg 1;

Jdg}ag}z


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D~a{~cav 1

D~a{~cav

Ncg`gjc`b `gm j{amc} o`{la}zZcgja }ea Nak{q`{s Cgnb`}cdg [axd{}" }ea OXJ e`z o`cg}`cgam

K`gl [`}a `} 8'1! `gm }ea zcya dn c}z `zza} xq{je`za

x{df{`ooa `} :;1 kcbbcdg' ]ea Aq{dxa`g Jag}{`b K`glz

bdgfa{/}a{o {ancg`gjcgf dxa{`}cdgz va{a `zzdjc`}am vc}e `g

cgc}c`b cox{d~aoag} cg k`gl nqgmcgf jdgmc}cdgz" `b}edqfe zdoacgmcj`}d{z dn qgzajq{am nqgmcgf jdz}z zqkzapqag}bs xcjlam qx'

Zx{a`mz dg zdoa aq{d/`{a` jdqg}{caz fd~a{goag} mak}

{ao`cgam aba~`}am' QL k`glz {`czam zcfgcncj`g} nqgmz n{do

mak} o`{la}z cg ;80; P0' ]eas jdg}cgqam }d x`zz }e{dqfe

a`{bca{ {czaz cg }eac{ nqgmcgf jdz}z }d od{}f`fa {`}az' Odgas

f{dv}e xcjlam qx cg P0< j{amc} f{dv}e {ao`cgam va`l'

Z}a{bcgf e`z `xx{ajc`}am ks :! zcgja }ea Nak{q`{s [axd{}'

Mao`gmFbdk`b f{dv}e {ao`cgam qga~ag `j{dzz mcnna{ag} {afcdgz'

Dq}xq} cg }ea aq{d `{a` }ea Qgc}am Lcgfmdoz odz}

coxd{}`g} }{`mcgf x`{}ga{ jdg}{`j}am cg ;800 P= `gm

kqzcgazz zq{~asz xdcg}am }d ` nq{}ea{ n`bb cg ;80; P0' Cg

jdg}{`z}" }ea QZ ajdgdos {ajd{mam zdbcm cgj{a`zaz" zqxxd{}am

ks edqzaedbm zxagmcgf' @j}c~c}s cg }ea aoa{fcgf ajdgdocaz

Dq}xq} e`m k`{abs f{dvg nd{ ` sa`{ `gm ` e`bn `gm v`z az}co`}am }d e`~a jdg}{`j}am zbcfe}bs cg }eax`z} }vd pq`{}a{z' ]ea aq{d/`{a` ajdgdos {ao`cgam va`l" kq} fbdk`b `j}c~c}s d~a{`bb jdg}cgqam }daux`gm `} ` odma{`}a x`ja' @ gqoka{ dn dga/dnn n`j}d{z `{a bclabs }d `nnaj} }ea x`}}a{g dn pq`{}a{bsf{dv}e dn mdoaz}cj dq}xq} mq{cgf ;80;' Bddlcgf }e{dqfe }edza annaj}z" qgma{bscgf mao`gm f{dv}ecz bclabs }d {ao`cg zqkmqam cg }ea ga`{ }a{o" kand{a ` fag}ba cgj{a`za cg edqzaedbmz {a`b cgjdoaz`gm jdgzqox}cdg eabxz }ea {ajd~a{s }d f`cg }{`j}cdg' Z}coqbqz n{do odga}`{s xdbcjs zedqbmjdg}cgqa }d zqxxd{} mao`gm" `b}edqfe ea`mvcgmz n{do }ea au}a{g`b ag~c{dgoag}" }cfe} j{amc}

jdgmc}cdgz `gm }ea nczj`b jdgzdbcm`}cdg `{a bclabs }d xa{zcz}' ]ea xdzzckcbc}s }e`} }ea zqkz}`g}c`bje`bbagfaz vc}ecg }ea aq{d `{a` vcbb ba`m }d zcfgcncj`g} ajdgdocj `gm ncg`gjc`b mcz{qx}cdg jdg}cgqaz}d xdza }ea f{a`}az} }e{a`} }d }ea QL {ajd~a{s'

JXC cgnb`}cdg z}ddm `} :'1! cg O`{je ;80;" mdvg n{do ` xa`l dn 1';! cg Zax}aoka{ ;800' ]e`} n`bb{anbaj}am }ea annaj}z dn a`{bca{ cgj{a`zaz cg aga{fs x{cjaz gm @] m{dxxcgf dq} dn }ea }vab~a/odg}ecgnb`}cdg {`}a' ]ea x{dzxaj}z nd{ cgnb`}cdg `{a qgja{}`cg' ]ea ga`{/}a{o dq}bddl cz iqmfam }d kazdoave`} ecfea{ }e`g auxaj}am }e{aa odg}ez `fd" vc}e cgnb`}cdg gdv bclabs }d {ao`cg `kd~a }ea;! }`{fa} nd{ }ea gau} sa`{ d{ zd' Kq} ` f{`mq`b a`zcgf cg }ea cox`j} dn au}a{g`b x{cja x{azzq{az"

}dfa}ea{ vc}e ` jdg}cgqcgf m{`f n{do ajdgdocj zb`jl" zedqbm ba`m cgnb`}cdg }d n`bb k`jl }d `{dqgm }ea}`{fa}' Qgma{ }ea `zzqox}cdgz }e`} K`gl [`}a od~az cg bcga vc}e o`{la} cg}a{az} {`}az `gm }ea zcyadn }ea `zza} xq{je`za x{df{`ooa {ao`cgz `} :;1 kcbbcdg" }ea {czlz dn cgnb`}cdg kacgf `kd~a d{ kabdv}ea }`{fa} ks }ea agm dn }ea nd{aj`z} xa{cdm `{a iqmfam }d ka k{d`mbs k`b`gjam'


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> Cgnb`}cdg [axd{} O`s ;80;

aux`gmam z}a`mcbs" `bkac} od{a zbdvbs }e`g `} }ea kafcggcgf dn

b`z} sa`{' QL auxd{}z f{av odmaz}bs cg ;800" qgma{xcggam ks

zdbcm auxd{} f{dv}e }d gdg/AQ jdqg}{caz'

@} edoa" FMX f{dv}e v`z va`l mq{cgf ;800' ]e`} va`lgazz

v`z jdgjag}{`}am vc}ecg mdoaz}cj mao`gm' Jdgzqox}cdg nabb"`z }ea zpqaaya dg {a`b cgjdoaz jdg}cgqam `gm edqzaedbmz

z`~am od{a' @gm kqzcgazz cg~az}oag} {ao`cgam zcfgcncj`g}bs

kabdv c}z x{a/j{czcz ba~ab" eabm k`jl ks va`l mao`gm"

eacfe}agam qgja{}`cg}s `gm }cfe} j{amc} jdgmc}cdgz'

Dq}xq} v`z x{d~czcdg`bbs az}co`}am }d e`~a n`bbag ks 8';! cg

;80; P0" }ea zajdgm jdgzajq}c~a pq`{}a{ dn jdg}{`j}cdg' ]e`}

n`bb v`z m{c~ag ks ` b`{fa majbcga cg oa`zq{am jdgz}{qj}cdg

dq}xq}' F{dv}e cg }ea {az} dn }ea ajdgdos v`z `bzd az}co`}am

}d ka va`l" vc}e o`gqn`j}q{cgf `gm za{~cjaz dq}xq} kd}e

k{d`mbs nb`}' Kq} kqzcgazz zq{~asz" b`kdq{ o`{la}

ma~abdxoag}z `gm {axd{}z n{do }ea K`glz @fag}z `bb xdcg}am}d zdoave`} z}{dgfa{ `j}c~c}s cg }ea nc{z} pq`{}a{" zqffaz}cgf

}e`} }ea qgma{bscgf xcj}q{a v`z bazz va`l'

]ea Jdooc}}aaz x{diaj}cdgz `{a jdgmc}cdgam dg }ea }ù `gm

zxagmcgf xb`gz za} dq} cg }ea O`{je Kqmfa}' ]edza xb`gz

zqffaz} }e`} }ea {amqj}cdg cg }ea nczj`b mancjc} `z ` x{dxd{}cdg

dn gdocg`b FMX cz bclabs }d ka ` bc}}ba zbdva{ cg ;80;$0: }e`g cg

}ea x{a~cdqz }vd sa`{z'

]ea dq}bddl nd{ FMX f{dv}e

Je`{} 0 zedvz }ea Jdooc}}aaz kaz} jdbbaj}c~a iqmfaoag} nd{ndq{/pq`{}a{ FMX f{dv}e" `zzqocgf }e`} K`gl [`}a ndbbdvz `

x`}e coxbcam ks o`{la} cg}a{az} {`}az `gm }ea zcya dn }ea `zza}

xq{je`za x{df{òoa z}`sz `} :;1 kcbbcdg' ]ea x`}}a{g dn

pq`{}a{bs f{dv}e cg ;80; cz bclabs }d ka `nnaj}am ks ` gqoka{ dn

dga/dnn n`j}d{z" cgjbqmcgf }ea Pqaagz Mcòdgm Iqkcbaa gm }ea

Dbsoxcjz' Bddlcgf }e{dqfe }edza annaj}z" qgma{bscgf f{dv}e cz

bclabs }d {ao`cg zqkmqam cg }ea ga`{ }a{o kand{a ` fag}ba

cgj{a`za cg edqzaedbmz {a`b cgjdoaz `gm jdgzqox}cdg eabxz

}ea {ajd~a{s }d f`cg }{`j}cdg' Z}coqbqz n{do odga}`{s xdbcjs

zedqbm eabx }d zqxxd{} `j}c~c}s" kq} jdg}cgqam z}{`cgz vc}ecg

}ea aq{d `{a`" }cfe} j{amc} jdgmc}cdgz `gm }ea nczj`b

jdgzdbcm`}cdg `{a `bb bclabs }d }aoxa{ }ea x`ja dn aux`gzcdg'

]ea x{dzxaj}z nd{ QL f{dv}e {ao`cg qgqzq`bbs qgja{}`cg' ]ea

zcgfba kcffaz} }e{a`} }d }ea {ajd~a{s z}aoz n{do }ea je`bbagfaz

vc}ecg }ea aq{d `{a`" cg x`{}cjqb`{ }ea gaam }d {amqja }ea

cgmak}amgazz `gm cox{d~a }ea jdoxa}c}c~agazz dn zdoa

oaoka{ jdqg}{caz' A~ag cn ` j{amckba `gm annaj}c~a za} dn

xdbcjcaz cz zqjjazznqbbs coxbaoag}am" }ea zj`ba dn }ea gajazz`{s

`miqz}oag}z zqffaz}z }e`} ` x{dbdgfam xa{cdm dn zbqffcze

f{dv}e `gm eacfe}agam qgja{}`cg}s cz bclabs' @ n`cbq{a }d

coxbaoag} zqje xdbcjcaz jdqbm e`~a za~a{a coxbcj`}cdgz nd{ }ea

QL ajdgdos' @z v`z }ea j`za cg x`z} [axd{}z" }ea OXJ zaaz

gd oa`gcgfnqb v`s }d pq`g}cns }ea zcya `gm bclabceddm dn }ea

odz} au}{aoa xdzzckcbc}caz `zzdjc`}am vc}e ma~abdxoag}z cg

}ea aq{d `{a`" `gm }eas `{a }ea{and{a aujbqmam n{do }ea n`g

je`{}z' Kq} }ea }e{a`} dn }eaza od{a au}{aoa dq}jdoaz cz

5

6

>

1

=

:

;

0

8

0

;

:

=

1

>

6

5

;885 83 08 00 0; 0: 0= 01

Xa{jag}`fa cgj{a`zaz cg dq}xq} dg ` sa`{ a`{bca{

X{diaj}cdgK`gl az}co`}az dn x`z} f{dv}e

DGZ m`}`

,

Je`{} 0 FMX x{diaj}cdg k`zam dg o`{la} cg}a{az} {`}a

auxaj}`}cdgz `gm :;1 kcbbcdg `zza} xq{je`zaz

]ea n`g je`{} maxcj}z }ea x{dk`kcbc}s dn ~`{cdqz dq}jdoaz nd{ FMX f{dv}e' C} e`z kaagjdgmc}cdgam dg }ea zzqox}cdg }e`} }ea z}djl dn xq{je`zam zza}z ncg`gjam ks }ea czzq`gja dnjag}{`b k`gl {aza{~az {ao`cgz `} :;1 kcbbcdg }e{dqfedq} }ea nd{aj`z} xa{cdm' ]d }ea ban} dn }eanc{z} ~a{}cj`b m`zeam bcga" }ea mcz}{ckq}cdg {anbaj}z }ea bclabceddm dn {a~czcdgz }d }ea m`}` d~a{ }eax`z}< }d }ea {cfe}" c} {anbaj}z qgja{}`cg}s d~a{ }ea a~dbq}cdg dn FMX f{dv}e cg }ea nq}q{a' Cnajdgdocj jc{jqoz}`gjaz cmag}cj`b }d }dm`sz va{a }d x{a~`cb dg 088 djj`zcdgz" }ea OXJz kaz}jdbbaj}c~a iqmfaoag} cz }e`} }ea o`}q{a az}co`}a dn FMX f{dv}e vdqbm bca v c}ecg }ea m`{laz}jag}{`b k`gm dg dgbs 08 dn }edza djj`zcdgz' ]ea n`g je`{} cz jdgz}{qj}am zd }e`} dq}}q{gz {a`bzd auxaj}am }d bca vc}ecg a`je x`c{ dn }ea bcfe}a{ f{aag {a`z dg 08 djj`zcdgz' Cg gs x`{}cjqb`{pq`{}a{ dn }ea nd{aj`z} xa{cdm" FMX f{dv}e cz }ea{and{a auxaj}am }d bca zdoavea{a vc}ecg }ea n`gdg 38 dq} dn 088 djj`zcdgz' @gm dg }ea {ao`cgcgf 08 dq} dn 088 djj`zcdgz FMX f{dv}e j`g n`bb`gsvea{a dq}zcma }ea f{aag {a` dn }ea n g je`{}' D~a{ }ea nd{aj`z} xa{cdm" }ecz e`z kaag

maxcj}am ks }ea bcfe} f{as k`jlf{dqgm' Cg gs pq`{}a{ dn }ea nd{aj`z} xa{cdm" }ea x{dk`kcbc}so`zz cg a`je x`c{ dn cmag}cj`bbs jdbdq{am k`gmz zqoz }d 08!' ]ea mcz}{ckq}cdg dn }e`} 08!ka}vaag }ea k`gmz kabdv gm kd~a }ea jag}{`b x{diaj}cdg ~`{caz jjd{mcgf }d }ea zlav } a`jepq`{}a{" vc}e }ea mcz}{ckq}cdg fc~ag ks }ea {`}cd dn }ea v cm}e dn }ea k`gmz kabdv }ea jag}{`bx{diaj}cdg }d }ea k`gmz `kd~a c}' Cg Je`{} 0" }ea x{dk`kcbc}caz cg }ea bdva{ k`gmz {a }ea zòa z}edza cg }ea qxxa{ k`gmz } Sa`{z 0" ; gm :' Zaa }ea kdu dg x`fa :3 dn }ea Gd~aoka{ ;886Cgnb`}cdg [axd{} nd{ nqbba{ mazj{cx}cdg dn }ea n`g je`{} gm ve`} c} {ax{azag}z' ]ea zajdgmm`zeam bcga cz m{`vg } }ea }vd/sa`{ xdcg} dn }ea x{diaj}cdg'


9/56


10/56

5 Cgnb`}cdg [axd{} O`s ;80;

]ea dq}bddl nd{ cgnb`}cdgJe`{} : zedvz }ea Jdooc}}aaz kaz} jdbbaj}c~a iqmfaoag} dn

}ea dq}bddl nd{ JXC cgnb`}cdg" k`zam dg }ea zòa `zzqox}cdgz

`z Je`{} 0' ]ea ga`{/}a{o dq}bddl cz ecfea{ }e`g cg }ea

Nak{q`{s [axd{}" vc}e cgnb`}cdg bclabs }d {ao`cg `kd~a }ea

;! }`{fa} nd{ }ea gau} sa`{ d{ zd' ]ecz qxv`{m {a~czcdg {anbaj}zkd}e }ea cox`j} dn ecfea{ aga{fs x{cjaz `gm cgmc{aj} }ùaz" `gm

`bzd ` iqmfaoag} }e`} jdz} x{azzq{az n{do x`z} {czaz cg

jdoodmc}s x{cjaz `gm va`l x{dmqj}c~c}s `{a bclabs }d e`~a `

f{a`}a{ cox`j} dg cgnb`}cdg cg }ea ga`{ }a{o }e`g auxaj}am

}e{aa odg}ez `fd' Kq} ` f{`mq`b a`zcgf cg }ea cox`j} dn

au}a{g`b x{cja x{azzq{az `gm ` jdg}cgqcgf m{`f n{do ajdgdocj

zb`jl zedqbm j`qza cgnb`}cdg }d n`bb k`jl }d `{dqgm }ea }`{fa} cg

}ea zajdgm e`bn dn }ea nd{aj`z} xa{cdm'

]ea x{dzxaj}z nd{ cgnb`}cdg {ao`cg qgja{}`cg" gd} ba`z} kaj`qza

c} cz mcnncjqb} }d f`qfa vc}e `gs x{ajczcdg }ea jq{{ag} z}{agf}edn qgma{bscgf cgnb`}cdg`{s x{azzq{a' ]ea au}ag} }d vecje

cgnb`}cdg zbdvz cg }ea ga`{ }a{o maxagmz dg }ea x`ja `} vecje

au}a{g`b x{cja x{azzq{az a`za" `gm eagja dg ma~abdxoag}z cg

jdoodmc}s `gm d}ea{ coxd{} x{cjaz' ]ea x`}e dn cgnb`}cdg vcbb

`bzd maxagm dg }ea f{dv}e cg jdox`gcaz mdoaz}cj jdz}z"

vecje vcbb ka ea`~cbs `nnaj}am ks }ea x`ja dn x{dmqj}c~c}s

f{dv}e `gm }ea au}ag} }d vecje zb`jl cg }ea b`kdq{ o`{la}

bcoc}z v`fa f{dv}e' ]ea maf{aa }d vecje jdox`gcaz zaal }d

{az}d{a }eac{ x{dnc} o`{fcgz ks {`czcgf x{cjaz vcbb `bzd e`~a `g

coxd{}`g} ka`{cgf dg cgnb`}cdg'

]ea mcnncjqb}s dn x{amcj}cgf }ea x{ajcza cox`j} dn }eazacgnbqagjaz oa`gz }e`} }ea Jdooc}}aa xb`jaz od{a vacfe} dg

}ea k{d`m ze`xa dn }ea cgnb`}cdg dq}bddl }e`g c}z au`j}

j`bck{`}cdg' @gm }ea{a {ao`cgz ` {`gfa dn ~cavz òdgf

Jdooc}}aa oaoka{z {af`{mcgf }ea {ab`}c~a z}{agf}e dn

mcnna{ag} n`j}d{z' Dg k`b`gja" edva~a{" }ea Jdooc}}aaz kaz}

jdbbaj}c~a iqmfaoag}" k`zam dg }ea jdgmc}cdgcgf `zzqox}cdgz

mazj{ckam `kd~a" cz }e`} ks }ea agm dn }ea nd{aj`z} xa{cdm" }ea

{czlz dn cgnb`}cdg kacgf `kd~a d{ kabdv }ea ;! }`{fa} `{a

k{d`mbs k`b`gjam %Je`{} =#'

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je`bbagfaz ndbbdvcgf }ea ncg`gjc`b j{czcz `gm zqkzapqag}

{ajazzcdg {ao`cgam }ea zòa' FMX f{dv}e v`z bclabs }d

{ao`cg va`l cg }ea ga`{ }a{o `gm }d z}{agf}eag f{`mq`bbs

}ea{a`n}a{' Ma~abdxoag}z cg }ea aq{d `{a` jdg}cgqam }d xdza `

zcfgcncj`g} }e{a`} }d }e`} dq}bddl' Cgnb`}cdg e`m majbcgam

ze`{xbs zcgja b`z} `q}qog" k{d`mbs `z }ea Jdooc}}aa e`m

auxaj}am' @gm `b}edqfe cgnb`}cdg v z bclabs }d {ao`cg `kd~a

;! nd{ }ea gau} sa`{ d{ zd" c} v`z ga~a{}eabazz bclabs }d n`bb

k`jl f{`mq`bbs }d `{dqgm }ea }`{fa}' ]ea Jdooc}}aa }ea{and{a

majcmam }e`} c} v`z `xx{dx{c`}a }d o`cg}`cg K`gl [`}a `}

8'1! `gm }ea zcya dn }ea `zza} xq{je`za x{df{òoa `}

:;1 kcbbcdg cg d{ma{ }d oaa} }ea ;! JXC cgnb`}cdg }`{fa} d~a{

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ka `kd~a }ea }`{fa}

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cg}a{az} {`}a auxaj}`}cdgz `gm :;1 kcbbcdg `zza}

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11/56

0 Odgas `gm `zza} x{cjaz

Zaj}cdg 0 Odgas `gm `zza} x{cjaz 3

Zcgja }ea Nak{q`{s [axd{}" }ea OXJ e`z o`cg}`cgam K`gl [`}a

`} 8'1! `gm }ea zcya dn c}z x{df{òoa dn `zza} xq{je`zaz `}

:;1 kcbbcdg %Zaj}cdg 0'0#' Zaj}cdg 0'; mczjqzzaz edv `zza}

xq{je`zaz o`s e`~a nnaj}am odgas f{dv}e' @b}edqfe }ea

Aq{dxa`g Jag}{`b K`glz %AJKz# }e{aa/sa`{ bdgfa{/}a{o

{ancg`gjcgf dxa{`}cdgz %B][Dz# kddz}am ncg`gjc`b o`{la}

zag}coag} cg a`{bs ;80;" }e`} annaj} e`z kafqg }d v`ga `gm

jdgja{gz `kdq} }ea cgmak}amgazz `gm jdoxa}c}c~agazz dn

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vaalz %Zaj}cdg 0':#' ]ea B][Dz eabxam }d cox{d~a nqgmcgf

jdgmc}cdgz nd{ k`glz cg P0" kq} nqgmcgf jdz}z {ao`cgam ecfe'

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0'0 Odga}`{s xdbcjs

]ea OXJ e`z o`cg}`cgam K`gl [`}a `} 8'1! zcgja }ea Nak{q`{s

[axd{}' @b}edqfe d~a{gcfe} cgmau zv`x {`}az zqffaz} }e`} }ea

xdcg} `} vecje K`gl [`}a cz auxaj}am }d cgj{a`za e`z kaag

k{dqfe} nd{v`{m o`{fcg`bbs d~a{ }ea x`z} }e{aa odg}ez" c} cz

gd} auxaj}am }d z}`{} {czcgf qg}cb ;80: %Je`{} 0'0#'

]ea OXJ e`z `bzd o`cg}`cgam }ea zcya dn c}z x{df{òoa dn`zza} xq{je`zaz ncg`gjam ks }ea czzq`gja dn jag}{`b k`gl

{aza{~az `} :;1 kcbbcdg' @{dqgm }e{aa pq`{}a{z dn {azxdgmag}z

}d }ea [aq}a{z xdbb dn ajdgdocz}z }`lag dg : O`s mcm gd}

auxaj} `gs nq{}ea{ aux`gzcdg cg }ea zcya dn }ea x{df{òoa'

@odgf }edza ved mcm auxaj} nq{}ea{ `zza} xq{je`zaz" }ea

oamc`g auxaj}`}cdg v`z nd{ `g `mmc}cdg`b 18 kcbbcdg cg }d}`b'

]ea {a`zdgz kaecgm }ea OXJz {ajag} xdbcjs majczcdgz `{a

mczjqzzam cg od{a ma}`cb cg }ea kdu dg x`fa 08'

]ea OXJz `zza} xq{je`zaz zaal }d kddz} `zza} x{cjaz `gm" d~a{

}coa" zqxxd{} gdocg`b zxagmcgf'%0# Cgc}c`bbs" cg~az}d{z zabb fcb}z

}d }ea K`gl `gm }e`} cgj{a`zaz }eac{ odgas edbmcgfz' Kq}

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Je`{} 0'0 K`gl [`}a `gm nd{v`{m o`{la} cg}a{az} {`}az%`#

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%`# ]ea Nak{q`{s ;80; gm O`s ;80; jq{~az {a az}co`}am qzcgf d~a{gcfe} cgmau zv`x {`}az cg}ea ncn}aag vd{lcgf m`sz }d 5 Nak{q`{s ;80; gm 3 O`s ;80; {azxaj}c~abs'

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12/56


Odga}`{s xdbcjs zcgja }ea Nak{q`{s [axd{}

]ea OXJz jag}{`b x{diaj}cdg cg }ea Nak{q`{s [axd{}" qgma{ }ea

`zzqox}cdgz }e`} K`gl [`}a ndbbdvam ` x`}e coxbcam ks o`{la}

cg}a{az} {`}az `gm }e`} }ea z}djl dn xq{je`zam `zza}z ncg`gjam

ks }ea czzq`gja dn jag}{`b k`gl {aza{~az {ao`cgam `}:;1 kcbbcdg" v`z }e`} f{dv}e v`z bclabs }d {ao`cg va`l cg }ea

ga`{ }a{o kand{a f{`mq`bbs z}{agf}eagcgf }ea{a`n}a{' Qgma{

}ea zòa `zzqox}cdgz" }ea OXJ iqmfam }e`} cgnb`}cdg v`z

bclabs }d jdg}cgqa }d majbcga n{do c}z {ajag} xa`l mq{cgf ;80;'

Ga`{/}a{o fbdk`b `j}c~c}s cgmcj`}d{z {aba`zam d~a{ }ea odg}e

x{cd{ }d }ea OXJz oaa}cgf dg 65 O`{je e`m ma~abdxam

k{d`mbs `z auxaj}am `gm jdg}cgqam }d xdcg} }d ` f{`mq`b

{ajd~a{s cg f{dv}e' Cg }ea Qgc}am Lcgfmdo" ndbbdvcgf }ea

8';! n`bb cg FMX cg ;800 P=" kqzcgazz zq{~asz {ao`cgam

jdgzcz}ag} vc}e ` {azqox}cdg dn f{dv}e cg kd}e za{~cjaz `gmo`gqn`j}q{cgf cg }ea nc{z} pq`{}a{ dn ;80;'

JXC cgnb`}cdg e`m n`bbag }d :'>! cg I`gq`{s n{do c}z {ajag} xa`l

dn 1';! cg Zax}aoka{' ]e`} majbcga {anbaj}am" cg x`{}" }ea

annaj} dn }ea x{a~cdqz sa`{z {cza cg }ea z}`gm`{m {`}a dn @]

m{dxxcgf dq} dn }ea }vab~a/odg}e jdox`{czdg' ]ea{a v`z bazz

ja{}`cg}s `kdq} }ea au}ag} `gm x`ja `} vecje cgnb`}cdg vdqbm

n`bb zqkzapqag}bs" b}edqfe }ea Jdooc}}aaz jag}{`b ~cav v`z

}e`} cgnb`}cdg vdqbm n`bb nq{}ea{ `z }ea jdg}{ckq}cdgz dn aga{fs

`gm coxd{} x{cjaz jdg}cgqam }d v`ga `gm `z zx`{a j`x`jc}s

vacfeam dg v`faz `gm x{cjaz'

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nd{ j{qma dcb x{cjaz' ]ea x{cja dn K{ag} j{qma dcb e`m cgj{a`zam

ks `{dqgm 0;! zcgja }ea agm dn I`gq`{s" vecje `xxa`{am }d

e`~a kaag x{co`{cbs m{c~ag ks zqxxbs n`j}d{z' @gs vd{zagcgf

dn }ea qgma{bscgf }agzcdgz cg }ea Ocmmba A`z} jdqbm e`~a

zcfgcncj`g} coxbcj`}cdgz nd{ nq}q{a dcb x{cjaz `gm JXC cgnb`}cdg'

Mdoaz}cj`bbs" }ea{a v`z ` {czl }e`} b`kdq{ o`{la} zb`jl ocfe}

ka ` bazz xdva{nqb {az}{`cgcgf nd{ja dg a`{gcgfz f{dv}e `gm

cgnb`}cdg cg }ea nq}q{a' Za} `f`cgz} }e`}" }ea{a va{a zcfgcncj`g}

{czlz }d ajdgdocj `j}c~c}s }e`} ocfe} {azqb} cg cgnb`}cdg n`bbcgf

o`}a{c`bbs kabdv }ea }`{fa} cg }ea oamcqo }a{o" cg x`{}cjqb`{"{ab`}am }d agmq{cgf jdgja{gz `kdq} }ea cgmak}amgazz `gm

jdoxa}c}c~agazz dn zdoa aq{d/`{a` jdqg}{caz'

D~a{`bb" }ea Jdooc}}aa iqmfam }e`} }ea {ajag} m`}` e`m

a~db~am cg bcga vc}e c}z auxaj}`}cdgz `gm }e`} }ea{a e`m kaag

bc}}ba je`gfa }d }ea k`b`gja dn {czlz }d QL `j}c~c}s `gm cgnb`}cdg'

Odz} oaoka{z z`v gd {a`zdg }d je`gfa }ea z}`gja dn

odga}`{s xdbcjs' Kq} }vd oaoka{z jdg}cgqam }d }ecgl }e`} `

b`{fa{ odga}`{s z}coqbqz v`z v`{{`g}am }d {amqja }ea {czl

}e`} xa{zcz}ag}bs va`l f{dv}e vdqbm mò`fa }ea nq}q{a zqxxbs

j`x`jc}s dn }ea ajdgdos' ]ea Jdooc}}aa ~d}am qg`gcodqzbs}d o`cg}`cg K`gl [`}a `} 8'1!' Za~ag oaoka{z ~d}am }d

jdg}cgqa vc}e }ea x{df{òoa dn `zza} xq{je`zaz }d}`bbcgf

:;1 kcbbcdg' ]vd x{ana{{am }d cgj{a`za }ea zcya dn }ea

x{df{òoa ks ;1 kcbbcdg'

@ea`m dn }ea OXJz oaa}cgf dg =1 @x{cb" }ea{a e`m kaag

mdvgzcma gavz dg }ea ga`{/}a{o x`}e dn FMX bclabs }d ka

xqkbczeam ks }ea DGZ' ]ea{a e`m kaag qgauxaj}am n`bbz cg }eaDGZz oa`zq{az dn dq}xq} cg o`gqn`j}q{cgf gm" cg x`{}cjqb`{"

jdgz}{qj}cdg' C} v`z xdzzckba }e`} }ea DGZz x{abcocg`{s

az}co`}a nd{ FMX jdqbm {ajd{m ` n`bb cg `ff{af`}a dq}xq}' Kq} `

vcma {`gfa dn zq{~as cgmcj`}d{z xdcg}am }d ` odma{`}a {`}a dn

f{dv}e cg `j}c~c}s cg }ea nc{z} e`bn dn }ea sa`{ `gm qgma{bscgf

`ff{af`}a `j}c~c}s f{dv}e v`z bclabs" cn `gs}ecgf" }d e`~a

xcjlam qx zcgja }ea zajdgm e`bn dn ;800'

JXC cgnb`}cdg e`m n`bbag }d :'=! cg Nak{q`{s' Kq} }ea n`bb zcgja

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auxaj}am' ]ea{a v`z ` {czl }e`} cgnb`}cdg vdqbm n`bb bazz {`xcmbscg }ea ga`{ }a{o }e`g `g}cjcx`}am cg }ea Nak{q`{s [axd{}'

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mq}caz `ggdqgjam cg }ea Kqmfa} vdqbm xq} qxv`{m x{azzq{a dg

cgnb`}cdg' Zdoa z}`}cz}cj`b x{diaj}cdgz va{a xdcg}cgf }d ` x`}e

nd{ JXC cgnb`}cdg cg }ea jdocgf odg}ez zdoave`} `kd~a }ea

jag}{`b x`}e jdg}`cgam cg }ea Nak{q`{s [axd{}'

]ea zxaam `} vecje cgnb`}cdg vdqbm {a}q{g }dv`{mz }`{fa}

jdqbm gd} ka iqmfam vc}e `gs x{ajczcdg `gm }ea{a va{a {czlz dg

kd}e zcmaz' ]d }ea qxzcma" aba~`}am cgnb`}cdg ocfe} ka od{a

xa{zcz}ag} }e`g }ea Jdooc}}aa auxaj}am cn }ea{a va{a nq{}ea{

zedjlz }d dcb d{ d}ea{ jdoodmc}s x{cjaz d{ cn }ea{a v`z f{a`}a{

x`zz/}e{dqfe dn au}a{g`b x{cja x{azzq{az }d jdgzqoa{ x{cjaz'

Mdoaz}cj`bbs" jdox`gcaz jdqbm zaal }d {akqcbm o`{fcgz od{a

`ff{azzc~abs }e`g `g}cjcx`}am' ]d }ea mdvgzcma" }ea {czl v`z

}e`} mao`gm vdqbm gd} ka z}{dgf agdqfe }d `kzd{k }ea

jdgzcma{`kba o`{fcg dn zx`{a j`x`jc}s cg }ea ajdgdos"

azxajc`bbs fc~ag }e`} }ea{a v`z ` {czl }e`} kqzcgazz `gm

edqzaedbm zag}coag} jdqbm ka nq{}ea{ mag}am ac}ea{ ks oamc`

{axd{}z dn }ea ajdgdos {a/ag}a{cgf {ajazzcdg d{ ks

ma}a{cd{`}cdg cg }ea zc}q`}cdg cg }ea aq{d `{a`'

Vecba }ea gavz `kdq} }ea ga`{/}a{o x`}e nd{ cgnb`}cdg v`zqgvabjdoa" nd{ odz} oaoka{z }ea{a v`z bc}}ba zdbcm

a~cmagja sa} }e`} }ea k`b`gja dn {czlz }d cgnb`}cdg cg }ea

oamcqo }a{o e`m je`gfam' Acfe} oaoka{z dn }ea Jdooc}}aa

~d}am }d jdg}cgqa vc}e }ea :;1 kcbbcdg `zza} xq{je`za

x{df{òoa `gm o`cg}`cg K`gl [`}a `} 8'1!' Dga oaoka{

x{ana{{am }d cgj{a`za }ea zcya dn }ea `zza} xq{je`za x{df{òoa

ks ` nq{}ea{ ;1 kcbbcdg" `b}edqfe }ea majczcdg v`z ncgabs

k`b`gjam'

@} c}z oaa}cgf dg 308 O`s" }ea Jdooc}}aa ~d}am }d o`cg}`cg

K`gl [`}a `} 8'1!' ]ea Jdooc}}aa `bzd ~d}am }d o`cg}`cg }eaz}djl dn `zza} xq{je`zaz ncg`gjam ks }ea czzq`gja dn jag}{`b

k`gl {aza{~az `} :;1 kcbbcdg'


13/56


cg~az}d{z `{a bclabs }eag }d {acg~az} }ea x{djaamz cg d}ea{ `zza}z"

zqje `z apqc}caz d{ jd{xd{`}a kdgmz" xq}}cgf qxv`{m x{azzq{a dg

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dn }ea OXJz fcb} xq{je`zaz dg odgas cz gajazz`{cbs qgja{}`cg'

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kae`~cdq{ dn gdg/{azcmag}z' Gdg/{azcmag}z z}a{bcgf maxdzc}z"

vecje `{a gd} oa`zq{am `z odgas" e`~a {czag {ajag}bs" vecje

jdqbm ka kaj`qza }eas e`~a kdqfe} nava{ fcb}z }e`g }eas vdqbm

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%k# O`s gd} apq`b }ea zqo dn c}z jdoxdgag}z mqa }d }ea oa}edm dn j`bjqb`}cdg'


14/56

0; Cgnb`}cdg [axd{} O`s ;80;

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15/56

Zaj}cdg 0 Odgas `gm `zza} x{cjaz 0:

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17/56


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18/56

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19/56

[a`b mao`gm f{dv}e v`z va`l mq{cgf ;800 %]`kba ;'@#'

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20/56


C} cz bclabs }e`} ` las m{c~a{ dn }ea va`lgazz cg edqzaedbm

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21/56

Zaj}cdg ; Mao`gm 03

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22/56

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23/56

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24/56

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28/56

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FMX f{dv}e cg ;80;

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}eas md gd} {anbaj} agmq{cgf je`gfaz cg qgma{bscgf `j}c~c}s'

]ea cox`j} dn }ea Mcòdgm Iqkcbaa@z x`{} dn }ea Mcòdgm I

Documents

Bank of England inflation report - May 2012