Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
1
]
Barclays Charity Fund Quarterly Performance Report June 2020
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 2
Contents
Contents ........................................................................... 2
Market Backdrop ........................................................... 3
Fund Performance......................................................... 4
Portfolio Activity ............................................................ 5
Portfolio Asset Allocation ........................................... 6
Direct Equity Portfolio .................................................. 7
Responsible Investing .................................................. 8
Looking Forward............................................................ 9
Keeping up to speed with our research ..............10
Appendix – Historical Performance ......................11
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 3
Market Backdrop
Fig 1: Market returns as at 30th June 2020. Past performance of investments is not a reliable indicator of their future performance. The value of investments and any income can fall. For discrete 5-year performance of these indices, see page 11. Source: Bloomberg. Indices used: Bloomberg Barclays Sterling Gilts, MSCI USA Net Total Return, MSCI UK Net Total Return, MSCI Europe ex UK Net Total Return, MSCI Emerging Markets Net Total Return (GBP)
Coronavirus continues to dominate headlines…
As most countries seem to have moved past their peaks in new cases cautious moves have been made to reopen
economies. Investor sentiment is still very sensitive to news of new outbreaks but authorities have been faster and more flexible in their containment strategies, as has
been seen following localised incidents in China and the US. In some corners of emerging markets the pandemic
remains a significant threat. While significant investment has been made, the timeline for potential vaccines and
treatments remains uncertain.
… and policies remain accommodative…
The enormous level of policy support has lifted investor sentiment as fears of the worst case economic scenario
have receded. However, the short-term consequences for the world’s economy will be severe and so policy will
remain accommodative. This means interest rates have
been lowered from already low levels before the pandemic and are likely to remain so for some time. Governments
have announced stimulative policies such as infrastructure projects in the US while Europe took steps closer to fiscal
integration to fund its plans. There have been promising economic statistics released towards the end of the quarter
with the US labour market recovering faster than expected.
… fuelling a strong rebound so far.
Having entered the crisis earlier economies such as China are further along the path to recovery. As investors turned
their focus to prospects post the pandemic we saw global stock markets recover even in the hardest hit sectors. Corporate bonds were helped by the improved sentiment
while all bonds were supported by the lower interest rates introduced by central banks and inflationary pressures
remaining muted.
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
UK Government Bonds(£)
UK (£) USA ($) Europe ex UK (€) Emerging Markets (£)
2019 2020
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 4
Fund Performance 2020 Q2 – Performance has picked up alongside market rally
Fig 2: Charity Fund performance to June 2020 Past performance of investments is not a reliable indicator of their future performance. The value of investments and any income can fall. For a description of the ARC Index and discrete 5 year performance of indices, see page 11.
The calm after the storm
• As frequently happens, periods of stress in markets are very quickly followed by strength. The second
quarter of the year followed this pattern. The Fund recovered strongly in the quarter delivering a total
return of 12.8%.
• All asset classes delivered positive returns over the quarter but it was the Fund’s exposure to Equities
that drove performance.
Income remains subdued
• Dividends were cut as companies stayed prudent and solvency remains the priority while shutdowns
were enforced.
• We expect dividends to return given the high quality
bias to our holdings and support provided from the authorities, although there will be some caution
while risks remain on the horizon.
Performance contributors and detractors
• In a reversal of Q1, all asset classes provided a positive return though Equities led the way. We saw very strong performances from funds such as
Fidelity Asia, Blackrock Continental European Income and Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity.
• Exposure to Technology stocks within the Loomis Sayles US Growth fund saw this holding maintain its extremely strong performance over the year.
• Investment Grade and High Yield Bonds also
delivered strong returns with the GlobalAccess Global High Yield Bond fund generating positive
returns of 9.3% this quarter.
• Areas of Real Estate remain challenging, as questions regarding the future use of Office space have emerged. However, other sectors exposed to
Logistics have more positive prospects as the demand for online shopping continues to grow.
Fig 3: Barclays Charity Fund performance comparison to ARC
Past performance of investments is not a reliable indicator of their future performance. The value of investments and any income can fall.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%BCFARC Steady Growth ACI
to end-June 2020: 2020 YtD 2019 2018 2017 3 yr (pa) 5 yr (pa) Fund -7.3% 17.6 % -4.1% 11.7% 3.7% 6.2% 12m distribution yield 3.1%
Next distribution 0.96p ARC Steady Growth -5.1% 15.6% -4.9% 9.4% 2.9% 5.2% Distribution date 31-Jul relative -2.2% 2.0% 0.8% 2.3% 0.8% 1.0%
Income Summary
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 5
Portfolio Activity Finding selective opportunities in volatile markets
Fig 4: Transactional activity over the last quarter
Tactical adjustments to exposure • As asset markets sold off in March, the value of
corporate debt also became much cheaper. The swift response from central banks included extensions to bond purchase programmes, the
purpose of which was to bolster market activity and mitigate the risk of default. With such support
provided to these markets, we viewed valuations as very attractive and increased our positions in both
Investment Grade and High Yield Bonds.
• Since adding to Equities towards the end of Q1, global markets have rebounded sharply and new
economic risks, such as secondary outbreaks and renewed US-China tensions, have emerged. These
events, coupled with excessive investor optimism, have led us to reduce equities towards the end of
the quarter.
• We also adopted a more cautious view on Emerging Market Bonds, where local central banks stepping
in to ease the burden through monetary policies would weigh on EM currencies.
Thematic repositioning of Equities • Markets this quarter have been characterised by
volatility, which presents good opportunities to make tactical changes to our stock positions, whilst keeping our focus on high-quality companies that
can weather the coronavirus storm and beyond.
• New positions in the fund include Medtronic and Visa. Both provide long-term growth potential as
they benefit from structural trends in Healthcare and Digital payments respectively. Not only a
market leader in medical devices and supplies, Medtronic also boasts an impressive pipeline of
innovative products that it can produce at great economies of scale. Similarly, Visa has made
strategic investments to take advantage of the rapid rise of online payments.
• We fully sold HSBC and John Wood Group in view of their financials and structural challenges that would hamper their recovery and future growth.
• We decided to sell Aveva and switch into Alphabet. Although Aveva is a great UK Tech stock with excellent management, they remain heavily
exposed to the Energy sector which could be more challenged in the short term. Consequently, we took our profits and placed the proceeds in
Alphabet, which brings a different structural story to our direct holdings. Overall, this tech giant offers
compelling growth and financial strength at a reasonable valuation.
Increased Equity
Added Structured Note
Increased Bonds
Reduced EquitiesRefined Direct Equity
March April – May June
Wealth and Investment Management Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 6
Portfolio Asset Allocation Interest rates remaining lower for longer will continue to support equities
Long term focus on equities • Our longer term investment horizons mean that we
have a relative preference for equities over bonds to
generate returns over longer periods through a combination of income and capital growth.
• Within global equities, Asia and US make up the bulk of the allocation (nearly two-thirds of equity investments are outside the UK).
• Our low conviction in returns prospects for commodities dilutes our enthusiasm. Our “alternatives” exposure is gained through property
providing strong and secure income and via a structured note delivering a high level of income.
Fig 5: Broad Asset Allocation as at 30 June 2020
Our Current Portfolio CASH & SHORT MATURITY 4.0%
GOVERNMENT BONDS 1.2%
DIRECT INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS 4.3%
HIGHER YIELDING BONDS 7.0%
Pimco Global Diversified Income
Global Access High Yield Fund
iShares JPM Emerging Market Bond ETF
TOTAL EQUITIES 73.3%
UK Equities 38.9%
Direct Equities
Merian UK Mid Cap Fund
European Equities 4.0%
Blackrock European Income Fund
US Equities 11.8%
xTrackers USA ESG ETF
Loomis US Growth Fund
Findlay Park American Fund
Robeco US Premium Fund
Direct: Visa, Medtronic, Alphabet (Google)
Japan Equities 1.1%
xTrackers Japan ESG ETF
Global Equities 4.3%
Henderson Global Sustainable Fund
xTrackers Global ESG ETF
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets 13.2%
Robeco Emerging Conservative Equity Fund
Henderson Asia Dividend Fund
Fidelity Asia Fund
PROPERTY 8.2%
Mayfair Property Income Trust for Charities
iShares Developed Property ETF
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS 1.9%
Goldman Sachs 9.5% Structured Note
Cash, 4.0 %
Bonds, 12.5 %
UK Equities,
38.9 %
Global Equities,
34.4 %
Property, 8.2 %
Alternative Investments, 1.9 %
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 7
Direct Equity Portfolio A focus on higher quality companies with international exposure
Fig 6: Charity Fund Direct Equity Sector Allocation
A recovery for UK equities Alongside global markets, UK equities rebounded this
quarter as the economy slowly emerges from lockdown. Some of the hardest hit sectors have begun to catch up, as investors are encouraged by early signs that the
trough in activities is now behind us.
The mining sector rebounded strongly as China, the world’s largest commodity consumer, remains the
furthest along the path to recovery. Manufacturing surveys indicating robust sentiment fuelled optimism for
BHP and Rio Tinto while industrial companies also rallied. In particular, Bunzl reported strong results with resilient
margins amidst difficult trading conditions. Having had a difficult Q1, it was pleasing to see Melrose post better
returns in Q2.
After selling HSBC, our financial exposure is to less challenged companies. London Stock Exchange, which we believe is one of the best quality financial names in
Europe, contributed positively this quarter. More
generally, having improved both their capital bases and lending practices, financials have higher relative security now than at the time of the Great Financial Crisis.
Defensive businesses continued to contribute to
portfolios, as earnings visibility proved valuable in these uncertain times. Consumer behaviour during lockdown
also boosted sales due to panic buying with companies such as Reckitt Benckiser and Unilever extending their
rallies year-to-date.
In contrast, the energy sector has not participated in the rebound, as oil companies such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell continued to lag. Although they have recently taken prudent steps to reassess their long term assets and
dividend plans in light of current challenges to the business model, oil prices have not recovered as global demand remains tepid.
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 8
Responsible Investing Accelerated themes resulting from the pandemic
The coronavirus pandemic has had a massive short term
impact globally but will also change the world in the longer term. As economies recover the focus on some of
the trends that hit the headlines in 2019, such as single use plastics, are temporarily being reversed as health
considerations outweigh ecological ones.
However, some trends have been vastly accelerated by the implications of the lockdown world. Two of which
were the cashless society and the increasing use of technology in our healthcare systems.
The pandemic caused the use of cash to be actively
discouraged with contactless payments and online transactions taking its place. This is clearly a trend before the pandemic but significantly accelerated
especially in emerging economies where cash is more prevalent.
Today about half the world’s adult population deal
exclusively in cash; this is risky, expensive and inefficient . According to the World Bank, increasing digital
payments leads to significant administrative savings and helps reduce corruption and fraud.
There are some concerns about restricting cash in the
most vulnerable of communities but increasing digital payments is a key enabler of financial inclusion, which
the World Bank links to seven of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.
Healthcare systems have been placed under significant strain by the pandemic with shortcomings in capacity
and capability exposed. Vital equipment, such as PPE, was in short supply, and diagnosis and treatment has
been wanting. We see a likely result of this being increasing use of technology in the sector as consumers
embrace different ways of managing their own wellbeing.
Portfolio implementation
Visa is ideally set to benefit in a cashless world. The company has about a 15% share of global physical point
of sale payments, but this rises to 43% in the digital space. The company has also made recent acquisitions
to take share beyond the consumer space. In 2015, Visa made a commitment to provide payment accounts for
another 500 million people who do not use banking services as part of the World Bank’s call for Universal
Financial Access by 2020.
Medtronic is the largest medical equipment company whose portfolio includes a number of products that are focused on reducing re-hospitalization, some
incorporating wearable technology, remote patient monitoring capabilities and predictive healthcare analytics. The company has significant exposure to AI (Artificial Intelligence) and robotics and the portfolio is
well positioned to benefit from the mega-theme of aging populations with many of its therapies aimed at the over
65s.
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 9
Looking Forward Global recession for this year, followed by a rebound next year
Fig 7: Real economic growth by region for calendar years 2019 and 2020/2021 (estimates) Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments and any income can fall. Source: Barclays Research as at 18th June 2020 Weights used for real GDP are based on IMF PPP-based GDP (5yr centred moving averages). Weights used for consumer prices are based on IMF nominal GDP.
The road to recovery is uncertain…
Governments globally are carefully weighing the net benefits of lifting current restrictions. The US experience
has recently been somewhat concerning, but many countries in Europe and Asia have implemented effect i ve strategies to bring back normal mobility conditions.
When implemented successfully, the re-openings have proven to unlock pent up demand and fuel a strong
rebound in economic activity, even though it may take some time to reach pre-virus levels. The UK is slightly
lagging in this process since the number of cases had taken a while to peak, but there is fundamentally no first-
mover advantage in reopening earlier.
…as companies reassess shareholder compensation.
As we mentioned last quarter, prudent companies are
suspending dividend payments. Payments year-to-date include commitments made in 2019, so it is in the second half of 2020 where we expect payments to be cut the
most. However, dividend growth is expected to return in 2021 as businesses regain clarity.
Economies face a delicate balancing act
Although data released from the early part of the quarter has confirmed the historic fall in economic growth, more
recent figures suggest consumers and businesses are slowly returning to normal. Investors’ optimism
regarding the full reopening of economies and the potential for a vaccine will be tempered by concerns
regarding a second spike. Governments must balance the withdrawal of fiscal support with the health of both
their economies and peoples.
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Global US Euro Area UK Emerging Asia
2019 2020e 2021e
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 10
Keeping up to speed with our research
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 11
Appendix – Historical PerformanceDiscrete 5-year performance of gilts and equities across regions
Market 2020
(to Jun) 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Gilts (£) 9.7 7.1 0.5 2.0 10.7 0.5
UK (£) -17.7 16.4 -8.8 11.7 19.2 -2.2
USA ($) -2.5 30.9 -5.0 21.2 10.9 0.7
Europe ex UK (€) -9.2 27.1 -10.9 11.4 2.4 10.7
Emerging Markets (£) -3.3 13.9 -9.3 25.4 32.6 -10.0 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments and any income can fall.
Index Source: Bloomberg. Indices used: Bloomberg Barclays Sterling Gilts, MSCI USA Net Total Return, MSCI UK Net Total
Return, MSCI Europe ex UK Net Total Return, MSCI Emerging Markets Net Total Return (GBP). All returns include income
reinvested and are in local currency apart from MSCI Emerging Markets which is in £.
Discrete 5-year performance for the Barclays Charity Fund
2020
(to Jun) 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Portfolio (net) -7.3% 17.6% -4.1% 11.7% 17.6% -0.4%
ARC Steady Growth -5.1% 15.6% -4.9% 9.4% 12.6% 2.1%
relative -2.2% 2.0% 0.8% 2.2% 5.1% -2.5%
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments and any income can fall. Performance data is net of fees for the Fund.
ARC Further information The Manager compares the performance of the Trust against the ARC Sterling Steady Growth ACI (the “Index”), one of the ARC Charity Indices. The Trust is not constrained to, or managed in line with, the Index and it is relevant only for the purposes of comparing the Trust’s performance. ARC Charity Indices are specifically designed to be used by charity trustees and advisers in assessing the performance of discretionary charity portfolios. The Manager compares performance of the Trust with the Index to help investors understand how it has performed versus an appropriate peer group. The Index is used because portfolios included in it have comparable risk characteristics. The Index is compiled by taking the performance of each portfolio submitted by the data contributors where the historic volatility of that portfolio has been in the range of 60–80% of that experienced by UK equity markets.
Barclays Investment Solutions Charity Investments Team
Barclays June 2020 12
Disclaimer and Risk Considerations
Risk Factors
Investments of this type will be exposed to a variety of risk, including but not limited to: Investments Long Term: Investments should be regarded as long term and are not suitable for money which may
be needed in the short term, you should always have a sufficient cash reserve.
High Yield Bonds: The fund invests in high yield bonds. High yield bonds carry a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds, and economic conditions and interest rate movements will have a greater effect on their price. Income levels may not be achieved and the income provided may vary.
Value of Investments: The value of investments, and any income, can fall as well as rise, so you could get back less than you invested. Neither capital nor income is guaranteed.
Disclaimer
This document has been issued and approved by Barclays Bank UK PLC. Where information in this document has been obtained from third-parties, the sources are believed to be reliable but we do not represent or warrant its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This document does not constitute a prospectus, offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell securities and is not intended to provide the sole basis for any evaluation of the securities or any
other instrument, which may be discussed in it. Any estimates and opinions included in this document constitute our judgement as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an
indication of future performance. The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested. This document is not a personal recommendation and you should consider whether you
can rely upon any opinion or statement contained in this document without seeking further advice tailored for your own circumstances. This document is confidential. It may not be reproduced or disclosed (in whole or in part) to any other
person without our prior written permission. Law or regulation in certain countries may restrict the manner of distribution of this document and persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves of and observe
such restrictions. We or our affiliates may have acted upon or have made use of material in this document prior to its publication.
You should seek advice concerning any impact that any investment described in this document may have on your tax position from your own tax adviser. You have sole responsibility for the management of your tax and legal affairs including making any applicable filings and payments and complying with any applicable laws and regulations. We have not and will not provide you with tax or legal advice and recommend that you obtain your own independent tax and legal advice tailored
to your individual circumstances.
Barclays offers banking, wealth and investment products and services to its clients through Barclays Bank UK PLC, and its
subsidiary companies. Barclays Bank UK PLC is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (Financial Services Register No. 759676). Registered
in England. Registered No. 9740322. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP.Barclays Investment Solutions Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange and
NEX. Registered in England. Registered No. 02752982. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. © 2018 Barclays Bank PLC (All rights reserved).