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Equity Research 13 December 2013 Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 13. U.S. REITs Real Estate: The Year Ahead Conference – Key Takeaways On Tuesday and Wednesday December 10-11, 2013 we held our annual Real Estate conference – Real Estate: The Year Ahead. The program consisted of 13 thematic panels comprised of senior management from more than 40 companies (public and private), an Urban Land Institute Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014 presentation, keynote addresses from Ken Rosen (Chairman, Rosen Consulting) and Darcy Stacom (Vice Chairman of Investment Properties, CBRE), and one-on-one meetings with managements. In this note, we provide a summary of each panel. Key themes heading into 2014 include the following: The broad macroeconomic recovery may seem painfully slow to many, but panelists suggested that slow and steady is not such a bad thing and the recovery may not be as fragile as it might appear. Improving job growth remains key, but the real estate market seems to have some wind at its back, countering what will likely be a rising interest rate environment. The commercial real estate recovery appears to be broadening out in terms of property types and markets. Panelist sounded generally positive across the board and while core cities remain in vogue, there are opportunities emerging in many markets around the world. As we have seen in recent months, increasing interest rates appear to remain the most obvious threat to real estate and particularly real estate securities. However, improving NOI, strong investor demand (including foreign capital) and available financing should support asset pricing even in a rising rate environment. We believe the uncertainty ahead of tapering may continue to weigh on the REIT stocks, but that uncertainty may prove to be more of an overhang than actual higher rates – perhaps setting the stage for better performance in the back half of 2014. The conclusion from three days of speakers, panels, meetings and events appears to be that the outlook is good for commercial real estate in the year ahead. Industrial real estate appears to be among the most in favor, but even apartment supply concerns appear to be overdone. Selection of submarkets (and sub property types) will be important and investors will need to look for the right individual opportunities, whether it be a (re)development, acquisition (more challenging) or disposition. But there will be opportunities and they will likely be in a growing number of places. We expect to have an audio replay of the panel presentations as well as related slide decks available via our conference website shortly. INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S. REITs NEUTRAL Unchanged U.S. REITs Ross L. Smotrich 1.212.526.2306 [email protected] BCI, New York Michael R. Lewis, CFA 1.212.526.3098 [email protected] BCI, New York Kristina Lazarevic 1.212.526.4691 [email protected] BCI, New York Charles Croson, CFA +1 212 526 7164 [email protected] BCI, New York

Barclays US REITs Real Estate the Year Ahead Conference - Key Takeaways

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  • Equity Research13 December 2013

    Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

    Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

    PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 13.

    U.S. REITs

    Real Estate: The Year Ahead Conference Key Takeaways On Tuesday and Wednesday December 10-11, 2013 we held our annual Real Estate conference Real Estate: The Year Ahead. The program consisted of 13 thematic panels comprised of senior management from more than 40 companies (public and private), an Urban Land Institute Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014 presentation, keynote addresses from Ken Rosen (Chairman, Rosen Consulting) and Darcy Stacom (Vice Chairman of Investment Properties, CBRE), and one-on-one meetings with managements. In this note, we provide a summary of each panel.

    Key themes heading into 2014 include the following:

    The broad macroeconomic recovery may seem painfully slow to many, but panelists suggested that slow and steady is not such a bad thing and the recovery may not be as fragile as it might appear. Improving job growth remains key, but the real estate market seems to have some wind at its back, countering what will likely be a rising interest rate environment.

    The commercial real estate recovery appears to be broadening out in terms of property types and markets. Panelist sounded generally positive across the board and while core cities remain in vogue, there are opportunities emerging in many markets around the world.

    As we have seen in recent months, increasing interest rates appear to remain the most obvious threat to real estate and particularly real estate securities. However, improving NOI, strong investor demand (including foreign capital) and available financing should support asset pricing even in a rising rate environment. We believe the uncertainty ahead of tapering may continue to weigh on the REIT stocks, but that uncertainty may prove to be more of an overhang than actual higher rates perhaps setting the stage for better performance in the back half of 2014.

    The conclusion from three days of speakers, panels, meetings and events appears to be that the outlook is good for commercial real estate in the year ahead. Industrial real estate appears to be among the most in favor, but even apartment supply concerns appear to be overdone. Selection of submarkets (and sub property types) will be important and investors will need to look for the right individual opportunities, whether it be a (re)development, acquisition (more challenging) or disposition. But there will be opportunities and they will likely be in a growing number of places.

    We expect to have an audio replay of the panel presentations as well as related slide decks available via our conference website shortly.

    INDUSTRY UPDATE

    U.S. REITs NEUTRAL Unchanged

    U.S. REITs Ross L. Smotrich 1.212.526.2306 [email protected] BCI, New York

    Michael R. Lewis, CFA 1.212.526.3098 [email protected] BCI, New York

    Kristina Lazarevic 1.212.526.4691 [email protected] BCI, New York

    Charles Croson, CFA +1 212 526 7164 [email protected] BCI, New York

  • Barclays | U.S. REITs

    13 December 2013 2

    Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014 Urban Land Institute/PricewaterhouseCoopers

    Presenter: Stephen Blank, Senior Fellow Finance, Urban Land Institute Generally Positive Outlook for 2014. We are now reaching an inflection point where we have economic and fundamental improvement. Rising corporate profits and an improving single-family housing market are poised to provide a tailwind to counter interest rate headwinds.

    Broad Improvement (And Still Broadening). The Emerging Trends survey revealed improving expectations for each property type, other than multi-family where overbuilding appears to be a concern. Respondents generally consider 2014 the beginning of the middle innings. It should be an operators market and investors may move out from core with more confidence and in search of higher yields. Investors will also look to create value in redevelopment and renovations.

    More Markets Look Attractive in 2014. The top performing and investment markets are expected to include San Francisco, Houston, San Jose, New York, Dallas and Seattle. Several of those markets, as well as Miami, are favored for development. In general, many markets will hold opportunity, but investors will need to look closely within those markets.

    Choosing the Right Niche Is Important. Survey respondents appear bullish on warehouses but not R&D/flex, neighborhood centers but not power centers, mid-priced apartments but not high-rent ones, and CBD office but not suburban office.

    Warehouses Are Most Favored, High-end Apartments Least. Industrial appears to be the favored opportunity, despite holding the highest new development prospects (followed by apartments). The trade for 2014 appears to be buying warehouses (and perhaps select hotels) and selling high-rent apartments.

    Availability of Capital not a Problem. There is little change expected in the availability of capital, although notably CMBS should continue to grow in popularity.

    A Sellers Market. Owners do not appear to feel any pressure to sell (and potentially redeploy proceeds into high-priced acquisitions) and therefore may choose to hold and ride improving fundamentals.

    Multi-Family: Addressing Misperceptions Moderator: Ron Witten, President, Witten Advisors LLC

    Panelists: Ric Campo, CEO, Camden Property Trust

    Justin Chang, CEO, Colony American Homes

    Charles R. Brindell Jr., CEO, Mill Creek Residential

    Timothy Naughton, Chairman & CEO, AvalonBay Communities

    Lou Taylor, SVP & Partner, Paulson & Company

    Misperception: The Multi-family Sector Is in the Process of Overbuilding again. Although deliveries have increased the past two years from the 2011 low, new starts appear to be stabilizing and new supply is expected to peak in 2014 before declining each year from 2015-17. Existing deals that were slowed or halted in the downturn were the first to be constructed but continued increases in land and construction costs are making deals harder to pencil, thereby reigning in new supply. Mr. Naughton said land prices have doubled from the trough and, as such, AVB sought to acquire many entitled parcels early on before costs rose further. Both he and Mr. Campo expect to decrease total starts next year, although Mr.

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    Campo noted that he isnt seeing any pressure in construction lease-ups given strong job growth in CPTs markets.

    Despite a slight pullback over the past several months in equity availability for apartments, Mr. Brindell noted that there is still plenty of institutional capital available on the development side, provided returns are met. Although yields on current pipelines are lower than projects started several years ago, equity can be attracted for core urban, high-density suburban, and high-quality institutional assets. Mr. Brindell expects to deliver between 4,400-4,500 units this year and between 4,000-4,500 units in both 2014 and 2015; given good fundamentals, he does not worry about oversupply. Further, Mr. Taylor pointed out that improved data availability has made markets much more transparent and therefore he thinks that the U.S. generally will not get overbuilt nationally.

    Misperception: The Single-family Market Recovery Means that the Apartment Run Is over. Mr. Chang said there is an overall housing shortage nationally for both single and multi-family. Although single-family rentals are leasing up quickly, Mr. Chang noted that single-family rental and multi-family tenants are different demographically. Single-family renters are typically married and have children and either lost their home or cant afford to buy. Conversely, the prime multi-family cohort is not married or does not yet have children, and wants to be in urban or high-density suburban locations. Mr. Campo said that only 1%-2% of CPT move-outs are to rent single-family homes.

    Concerns and Opportunities Going Forward. Mr. Taylor said overall housing undersupply will increase costs, rents, and home prices. Mr. Chang similarly said he thinks home price appreciation is still in the future, creating current buying opportunities, but that continued job growth will be necessary. Mr. Brindell said the industry is in the best supply/demand position in the past 20 years, driven by transparency, and although there could be some indigestion in a few markets in 2014 as apartment deliveries peak and are absorbed, he thinks there is opportunity in 2015 and 2016. Mr. Campo and Mr. Naughton said that great fundamentals have created a long runway for growth, but policy uncertainty, particularly monetary policy, is a concern.

    Capital Markets: Debt/Equity Public/Private Moderator: Larry Kravetz, Managing Director & Head of Primary CMBS Finance,

    Barclays

    Panelists: Dean Adler, Co-Founder & CEO, Lubert-Adler Partners LP

    Spencer Haber, Chairman & CEO, H/2 Capital Partners

    Brian Harris, CEO, Ladder Capital Finance LLC

    Jeff Krasnoff, CEO, Rialto Capital Management

    Doug Weill, Managing Partner, Hodes Weill & Associates

    Are There too Many Dollars Chasing too Few Deals? Mr. Haber said that although there are lots of participants, he sees decent relative value in the commercial mortgage space. Mr. Adler said that investors buying yield (as opposed to creating yield) need to factor difficult headwinds into their investment decisions, such as new supply, rising rates, and declining NOI growth. Although he thinks money can still be made, the environment is very different than several years ago and investors need a more targeted strategy today in picking opportunities.

    The Changing Landscape of Financing. Mr. Weill said that capital is meaningfully more disciplined as lessons learned are being taken into consideration. Mr. Harris added that pro forma underwriting has changed and that there is sensitivity around speculative investing. Regarding private lenders, he doesnt think they are big enough to attract regulatory

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    attention. Mr. Krasnoff said that more lenders are good for the market as players each find their niche.

    Opportunities Going Forward. Mr. Weill expects great managers that weathered the downturn to do exciting things as they apply lessons learned. Mr. Adler said that execution will be key as higher yields are needed to absorb potential rate increases; he is focused on corporate, private real estate (operating companies looking to monetize real estate holdings) and redevelopment opportunities (such as buying C-quality apartments in A locations). Mr. Haber is optimistic that the world is largely getting through the deleveraging of the past five years and although there is a different set of opportunities globally, he is looking forward to potential volatility created when rates rise. Mr. Krasnoff said that pent-up demand will be the driver of future opportunity. He said that the industry is moving from a period of distress (assets, borrowers, owners) to expansion and that this inflection point in the cycle will create huge demand for capital.

    Office: The Changing Calculus Moderator: Mary Ann Tighe, CEO New York Tri-State Region, CBRE Inc.

    Panelists: Tom August, President and CEO, Equity Office Properties

    MaryAnne Gilmartin, President and CEO, Forest City Ratner Companies

    Douglas Linde, President, Boston Properties

    Robert Underhill, EVP, Shorenstein Properties LLC

    Tenants Are Operating More Efficiently and Their Wish Lists Have Changed. Todays employees desire fresh/modern spaces and employers are looking to combine that with more efficient floor plans. Companies are looking to encourage innovative thinking by shifting to more collaborative working environments. As a result, some older buildings will have to face the question of what price it will take to get non-traditional users to lease traditional office spaces. The FIRE and law industries are being significantly impacted by the shift to more efficient floor plans. For example, many financial services firms are going from roughly 250 sf per employee closer to 170 sf. Further, co-location options, such as WeWork, are helping change the way some companies think about renting office space.

    Preference for CBD vs. Suburban. The preference for CBD office over suburban is not a new theme and was consistent throughout many of this weeks panels with coastal markets generally the most in favor. However, it was noted that suburban locations can work if they are part of a smaller urban core with live/work/play (and mass transit) options.

    Tech, Media and Entertainment Markets are Outperforming... We believe this trend has been well established by now: technology, media, entertainment, and energy markets are leading the economic recovery. As a result, markets such as San Francisco, Boston, New York, several Texas markets, etc. are likely to continue to outperform.

    But Investors Need to Look More Closely. Landlord pricing power increasingly varies by micro market. For example, there are many technology companies looking for space in the relatively small Cambridge, MA market, pushing rents higher. Another example: there is very little space available on the highest floors in the best buildings in Manhattan, so these spaces also command very high rents. In contrast, the outlook for typical Midtown Manhattan buildings/spaces is less robust. San Francisco appears to be a rare market where the tide is rising for most of the market all at once.

    Mixed Outlook for New York Overall. Most of the panelists warned against betting against New York and Midtown, while agreeing the market is in need of a refresh, given a lot of older product. However, Mr. Linde was less optimistic, noting the large amount of Midtown inventory relative to current/projected demand. There will likely always be opportunities in

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    pockets of the market and/or in specific buildings. New supply in Lower Manhattan and at Hudson Yards will get leased up, though pricing will bear watching. Anecdotally, it appears that it would be a good 2014 from a leasing perspective downtown the issue will be pricing.

    The Next Opportunity? Mr. Underhill believes Southern California is poised to outperform although he noted that he held the same view two years ago and the market has not rebounded as quickly as he predicted. Though fundamentals have been improving in Southern California, we have taken more of a wait-and-see approach and still expect better growth from other core office markets.

    Real Estate Taxes Poised to Rise. Landlords are still offering relatively high concessions in some markets and real estate taxes are clearly a risk heading into 2014 as all levels of government search for higher revenues.

    Developers/Tenants Thinking Ahead. In many cases, the time line for new development is getting elongated as developers look at lease rollover farther into the future.

    Pricing Is Relatively Aggressive and Likely To Stay that Way. It is a good market to be a seller of office properties, though core properties and those with redevelopment potential are likely to achieve the best pricing opportunities in between these two ends of the spectrum are not as coveted by potential buyers. The best buildings in the best markets are commanding especially competitive pricing, supported by ample foreign capital. This weight of capital (and expectations of improving fundamentals) should help support cap rates even in a rising rate environment.

    Strategic Inflection: A Value Creation Proposition Moderator: Douglas Sesler, President, True Square Capital LLC

    Panelists: Joseph (Joe) Coradino, CEO, Penn REIT

    James (Jim) Hiestand, President & Chairman, Parkway Properties

    Ed Pettinella, CEO, Home Properties

    Jay Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager, Nuveen Asset Management

    Jerry Sweeny, CEO, Brandywine Realty

    Changing the Course Common Themes. Panelists represented diverse backgrounds across the REIT universe, but there were common themes to their companys turnaround strategies, which were previously marked by asset portfolios in low-growth, low-barrier-to-entry markets, overextended balance sheets and lack of interest and heightened criticism among the investment community. Strategies included: significantly de-levering and refinancing the balance sheet, shedding non-core assets, focusing on high barrier/CBD markets and reframing their image to investors.

    Shifting to Urban Cores. Jerry Sweeny and Jim Hiestand noted that retail, office and multi-family tenants are demanding space in more urban locations that carry a variety of amenities, such as easy access to public transportation and walkability to restaurants. Ed Pettinella noted this trend is being driven by younger demographics entering the workforce who wish to work in a more convenient and urban setting. Natural benefits of this for property owners include high barriers to entry and often a premium for rents, underscoring Brandywines strategy to tip the portfolio balance to CBDs and Parkways to higher growth markets in the Sun Belt.

    Positive Outlook for Quality Malls. With virtually no new supply coming online, rents are increasing in existing Class A and even Class B malls as retail tenants seek quality space. Joe Coradino noted that organic growth is solid given this dynamic, but external options remain

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    very limited. That said, development interest is growing and Joe sees potentially 2014 or 2015 as the year(s) we see the pipeline across the space expand, albeit at still well below historical levels. Lower end B and C class malls on the other hand are expected to continue to struggle, with many potentially being repurposed.

    E-commerce Foreseen To Be Complimentary. Internet sales account for about 9% of total retail sales in the US and are projected to reach about 14% over the next few years. Despite concerns this will eat into retailer sales and ultimately rents and occupancy, Joe Coradino thinks this trend will actually prove to be a positive as tenants such as the GAP utilize their websites to draw customers in. Specifically, customers can shop online and pick up their purchase at a nearby store, thus potentially spurring additional sales.

    No one way To Clean up the Balance Sheet. Strategies to de-lever the balance sheet and improve the portfolio ranged from JVs and incremental asset recycling in Brandywine and Penn REITs cases to quick surgical asset culling and use of a strategic investor as with Parkway Properties. All panelists noted however that there is no one right method, but rather one that suits the needs of the company, as well as what is feasible. However, the common goal should be to keep debt flexible and the cost of capital low. Case-in-point, Ed Petinella noted that while Home Properties traditionally accessed low cost GSE debt, the firm was looking into issuing corporate level debt that will allow more flexibility and could actually improve the cost of capital.

    Replicating Success - Advice for Troubled REITs. For REITs sitting in the penalty box and looking to mimic some of the panelists strategies, Jay Rosenberg noted that having a clear plan in place that investors can easily understand is crucial. Just as important, there should be little, if any, material deviation (assuming no major external/macro changes), once the plan is in place. Consistent progress updates were also mentioned as a crucial component.

    Retail: Intersection of Main Street and the Cloud Moderator: Meredith Adler, Managing Director, Barclays

    Panelists: Mike Carroll, CEO, Brixmor Property Group

    Mary Hogan, Managing Director & Co-Head - Americas Real Estate, APG Asset Management US

    Greg Maloney, President & CEO of Retail, Jones Lang LaSalle

    Sandeep Mathrani, CEO, General Growth Properties

    Joyce Storm, President, JSS Advisors & Principal, Wheelock Street Capital

    Outlook for Retail REITS Should Improve in 2014. Mary Hogan noted that REIT performance in 2013 has lagged due to interest rates. However, retail REITs have not done as badly relative to other sectors. Shes more optimistic than most on expectations for holiday 2013. She believes that it is not so much that actual rising rates negatively impact REITs, but the uncertainty around its timing which has a more detrimental effect; once that cloud has been lifted, we should see a nice recovery through 2014.

    Correcting Investor Perception around GGP. Sandeep Mathrani believes that GGPs stock has been incorrectly categorized by investors as growth, in light of strong REITs performance in 2011 (FTSE NAREIT Equity Index, up 21%). Rather, due to the stability of its profitability and earnings growth, he believes that GGP should be viewed as a core holding -- a desire we think could be facilitated by the recent news (December 4th) that GGP is joining the S&P500. GGP is looking for sustainable EBITDA growth north of 4% and SSNOI growth of 4% to 5%.

    Redevelopment Currently Offers the Best Returns for Shopping Centers. According to Mike Carroll, there is very little new development amongst large format retailers like KSS

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    and TGT. Retail sales have only been "okay", but it has been a reasonable environment in which to operate versus five years ago, when the landscape was more overbuilt.

    GGP Still Sees Store Growth at its Malls. GGP noted that retailers still need to find a way to grow; every domestic retailer is expanding its footprint. LTDs Victoria Secret's Pink is increasing its store size from 6,000 sq ft to 10,000 sq ft. Victorias Secret Sport, another spin-off brand, like Pink, is also being expanded. Victorias Secret is offering 12 fashion sets a year, up from four, which should drive transactions and inventory turns. Gap is rolling out Athleta stores and Lululemon has a new yoga line for young girls aged 6 to 12 called, Ivivva Athletica.

    Limited Supply Has Loosened Retailers Store Specifications. Retailers are now less picky about the technical specifications of where they open stores. Previously, stores had to be in an exact size and location. Now due to limited supply, one is witnessing a blurring of formats, i.e. such as grocery stores opening up in malls. Leasing has also become more flexible, according to Greg Maloney. Whereas retail leases used to be 10 to 15 years, now they are more like 5 to 7.

    Omnichannel Is just Another Point of Distribution. Similar to the role of catalogs pre-internet, omnichannel is simply another distribution channel. GGP believes that rather than fearing the internet, landlords should embrace it. Omnichannel represents the ability to buy anytime, anywhere and this represents opportunity for landlords.

    JCP Penney/Sears. Mary Hogan believes that JCP could survive and they might begin to regain share again. GGP is not intimidated by the idea of a JCP or SHLD bankruptcy as it would provide them the opportunity to bring in a vastly more productive retailer.

    Breakfast Keynote: The Economic and Real Estate Outlook

    Presenter: Ken Rosen, Chairman, Rosen Consulting Group Low for Longer. Mr. Rosen cited rising interest rates as the biggest headwind because yield vehicles become less attractive. However, he thinks Yellen, whose confirmation vote is next week, will focus on employment and will keep rates low for longer. That said, the risk to lower for longer is the creation of asset bubbles.

    Moderate and Choppy Recovery. Mr. Rosen expects the recovery to continue to be moderate and choppy in 2014 (70% probability). He forecasts 2.3% GDP growth, a 6.5% unemployment rate (2.1 million jobs created), and a 3.5% T-bond rate in 2014. Although a double dip is unlikely (10% chance), he noted that it would be internationally produced.

    Look at Fly-Over Cities. Mr. Rosen pointed out that lots of smaller cities outside of the coast are doing well and deserve attention. For example, Fort Worth, Austin, Charlotte, and Nashville rank among the highest secondary and tertiary markets for year-over-year job growth.

    Large Caps: Beyond The S&P Moderator: Ross Smotrich, Managing Director, Barclays

    Panelists: Ron Havner, Chairman, CEO & President, Public Storage

    Hamid Moghadam, Chairman & CEO, Prologis

    David Neithercut, President & CEO, Equity Residential

    Sheridan Schechner, Managing Director & Head of Americas Real Estate Investment Banking, Barclays

    David Simon, Chairman & CEO, Simon Property Group

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    PLD Sees Significant Development Opportunity. Hamid Moghadam noted that following the financial crises, ProLogis moved close to $50 billion from their balance sheet to related entities, either in a private format or in the form of a J-REIT. Asset movement would have happened in normal course of operations, but during the financial crises of 2008, assets piled up and PLD began to systematically remove assets from its balance sheet to its funds to reduce its exposure to these assets. PLD exited markets they felt they should not have been involved. Currently, the company has a lot in its land bank and it believes it has enough land to support $10 billion of development.

    EQR Has Improved Its Portfolio Quality. This resulted from wanting to change markets. Previously, EQR operated in 50 markets commonly defined by being low-barrier with a low cost of housing, which was not expected to increase. In order to raise its growth profile, it needed to be in different markets, which it did by spreading out its footprint to include high-barrier gateway cities.

    SPG's (and Others) High-class Problem of Selling Highly Valued Assets. David Simon discussed the conundrum of selling assets in a rising market. In his view, one of the REIT model's limitations is large asset sales result in taxable gains. Performing an asset exchange via a 1031 transaction avoids big tax gains, but is logistically complicated. Further, if there is a large gain and it is distributed to shareholders, the stock's multiple yields no benefit because it's episodic in nature, therefore shareholders don't assign a benefit to the stock's multiple.

    Generally, SPG Strives to Retain Its Value for Its Shareholders. Rather than selling B properties to "promoter" types, SPG would rather keep that profit for its shareholders. There are a lot of investors interested in smaller malls, but SPG believes that there is too much value transfer that occurs from the mall owner to the investors buying it.

    PSA Tends To Retain Its Assets due to the Nature of Its Business. Since PSA owns storage units, their sales occur in $4 million increments. Since 1998, the company has divested and is now down to four businesses. In the company's view, selling assets poses a big tax problem. If reinvestment doesn't occur, then it becomes a liquidation of the company. Even if a 1031 is attempted, the question remains of what new investment opportunity is more attractive than the one they just exited. By way of illustration, PSA said it wouldn't unload a property for an 8% cap rate to buy at a 5% cap rate.

    PLD Expects Its Growth To Be Organic. The "major gymnastics" within PLDs portfolio is done. Over time, the company expects to wield a cost of capital advantage on its debt of 40 to 50 bps, but will only buy if it makes sense. Near-term, 90% of growth will be organic, deriving mainly from rent increases and putting land back to work. While development is easy to do, shareholders are not paying for it. PLD noted that the market goes through phases and becomes overzealous at times in paying for development and at times reaps zero benefit (as is the case for them right now).

    Feeling Unloved Like It's 1999. In light of REIT's underperformance, panelists largely agreed that the current environment feels similar to 1999, when REITs were out of favor. David Simon noted that the non-dedicated REIT investor has left the space due to rising interest rates. He provided an anecdote that sovereign wealth funds would rather buy a mall or company at 4% cap than buy SPG at 6% cap. However, on a more positive note, he believes that SPG is a much better company than it was in 1999 and he also feels better about its prospects. PSA thinks investors don't care about its cash flows. PSA produces a lot of cash flow and has a lot of buildings. At some point, these attributes will play in PSAs favor again.

    Stock Misperceptions. PLDs CEO noted that three misperceptions prevail: 1) the company doesn't get any multiple benefit in its stock for its development efforts 2) PLDs overhead is not high 3) because PLD is a global company, if one region is experiencing issues, the

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    company is perceived negatively even if the other regions are performing well. PSA believes that very little credit is given to its franchise and to the stability and predictability of cash flows. For SPGs CEO, he believes that investors don't effectively differentiate between it and other retail REITs in light of SPG's much greater size and scale.

    Luncheon Keynote: New York Real Estate Market

    Presenter: Darcy Stacom, Vice Chairman Investment Properties Institutional Group, CBRE Favorable Population and Job Growth New York City employment is at an all-time high, up 8.5% from 2009, driven by tech/media (+25%) and professional business services (+13%). Meanwhile, the population (8.4 million) is up 14% in less than 25 years and is projected to increase by 1 million (12%) by 2040.

    Driving Rent Growth Year-to-date leasing activity in Manhattan is up 10% YOY and rents are up in Midtown, Midtown South and Downtown. Midtown South remains the most popular NYC office submarket (beginning to push some tenants further south), although Midtown office rents have improved for five consecutive months.

    And Investment Sales Growth. U.S. office transaction volume is up 26% over the past 12 months, supported by strong investor demand and available liquidity (including more aggressive lenders and tighter spreads). New York real estate is in especially high demand and 2013 office volume is nearly three times that of the second-place CBD (Los Angeles). The amount of foreign capital seeking real estate investments is substantial and New York remains a favored destination.

    Ms. Stacom Noticeably Bullish on Downtown. Midtown inventory continues to age and Downtown is becoming an increasingly attractive option for its newer inventory and often lower rent (not to mention improving transportation and amenities). Overall Manhattan office deliveries are expected to spike after 2016 with several large projects, including Hudson Yards North Tower, Manhattan West, 425 Park Avenue and 740 Eighth Avenue. However, many are missing the impact residential conversions continue to have in reducing Downtown office inventory and mitigating new office supply risk.

    New York Continues To Have Some Things Going for It. Tens of billions of dollars of infrastructure investment, accommodating capital markets (and an influx of foreign capital), and the markets stability/liquidity point to high investor demand and strong pricing for New York office buildings.

    Industrial: E-Commerce and the Changing Supply Chain Moderator: Michael Lewis, VP, Barclays

    Panelists: Matthew Broberg, Director Business Devel. FMCG, Kuehne + Nagel Inc.

    Frank Cohen, Senior Managing Director, Blackstone Real Estate Advisors

    Ben Conwell, Director N.A. Ops. Real Estate, Amazon Fulfilment Services

    Craig Meyer, President Industrial Brokerage, Jones Lang LaSalle

    Jay Leupp, Managing Director, Lazard Asset Management LLC

    Conditions Are Good. Growing e-commerce and changing supply chains are driving strong industrial demand. Big boxes are essentially full, driven by e-commerce and other sophisticated tenants who are making well-informed, data-driven decisions. Smaller warehouses are recovering and appear to have room for improvement, which is expected to continue in 2014.

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    13 December 2013 10

    Two Excellent Examples: The two tenants represented on our panel, Amazon and Kuehne + Nagel, are expected to demand roughly 8-11 million sf and 35-40 million sf, respectively, in 2014. Much of this demand will be met with build-to-suit development, particularly for Amazon, due to a lack of adequate product in key locations. The strong growth for Kuehne + Nagel is notable for being roughly a third driven by e-commerce related demand, as well as for being comfortably above recent growth rates.

    New Supply Is not a Major Concern. There appears to be plenty of demand to absorb new product. Meanwhile, obsolescence is offsetting some of the new building, even as some warehouses get repurposed to keep up with changing tenant needs (a significant theme in Keuhne + Nagels portfolio).

    Asset Pricing Should Remain Firm. Cap rates are not expected to move much in 2014, even if the 10-year Treasury continues to drift higher, supported by a good growth outlook and strong demand from both tenants and investors.

    Big vs. Small Is a Clear Distinction, but Both Can Work. Mr. Cohen sees opportunity in smaller warehouses where occupancy has room to improve. However, he is more concerned with owning the right product for a specific market. For example, he does not want to own a small warehouse in what is a large distribution market, nor does he want to own a large bulk warehouse in a more consumer market where smaller product is in higher demand.

    Bright Outlook for 2014. The panellists were uniformly bullish on industrial real estate for 2014 and view that we share. Perhaps our biggest takeaway is that some investors may be too concerned by potential new supply and not focused enough on how the actual product and industry have changed and grown more sophisticated. The panelists also have a favorable view of opportunities in Europe, which is undergoing a large shift/upgrade in its logistics corridors. Mr. Meyer also echoed Hamid Moghadams (CEO of PLD) comments from a prior panel that there is a great deal of attractive opportunities in other parts of the world, such as Mexico, Brazil, Japan and China.

    Global: From RiskTo Opportunity Moderator: Aaron Guy, VP, Barclays

    Panelists: Steve Buller, Portfolio Manager, Fidelity

    Ric Clark, CEO, Brookfield Property Partners

    Gary Garrabrant, MD, Jaguar Growth Partners

    Chaim Katzman, Chairman, Gazit-Globe

    Adam Metz, MD, Carlyle Group

    Global Capital Flows Are Picking up Steam. Global real estate transaction volumes are up 21% year over year, amounting to roughly $140 billion for 2013. This compares with just $40 billion at the lowest point during the financial crisis and is quickly approaching pre-recession annual levels of $180 billion. Aaron Guy noted that a significant chunk of the capital is flowing into Europe and the US from Asia, particularly China.

    London Benefits from a Flight-to-safety, other Alpha Cities Benefit too. Despite several years of a global slow-down in the developed markets, asset prices in London are at historic highs. Adam Metz noted that London has benefited from a flight-to-safety, primarily via foreign investors, which are pushing cap rates down to historical lows, particularly for trophy assets. Ric Clark confirmed this by giving an example that one tenant publicly announced leasing for a space even before it was signed. As mentioned in other panels, New York City and Hong Kong are also seeing similar phenomena with the former expected to garner a wave of capital from China.

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    13 December 2013 11

    De-levering a Little too much. With the global macroeconomic situation generally improving, Steve Buller and Chaim Katzman noted that many REITs have de-levered too much and need to move back up the risk spectrum. However, Steve was also quick to caution that firms need to do a better job this time with matching debt maturities and cash flows and Gary Garrabrant noted that too much leverage can reduce barriers to entry.

    The Coming M&A Wave. With leverage ratios continuing to recede and implied private asset values above those of public REITs, the panelists saw a wave of incoming M&A activity. Most of the distressed opportunities in the developed world have been accounted for (the remainder mostly being in Southern Europe), but dislocation remains plentiful. Additionally, the consensus on the panel speculated that PE firms could seek to take some public REITs private. Public-to-public mergers are also expected.

    Where to Invest? EMs and Eastern Europe. The majority of panelists favored countries in the emerging markets and Eastern Europe. Adam Metz was a fairly strong bull on China, noting that despite slower growth going forward, the rate will still be remarkably high compared with the developed world and augmented by several big transformations such as the end of the one-child policy and continued massive urbanization. Gary Garrabrant also favored China, but prefers seeking distressed opportunities in Latin America, particularly Brazil. For similar reasons as Mr. Garrabrant, Chaim Katzman sees opportunities in Brazil and is also looking into Eastern Europe, particularly Poland. Veering from the pack, Steve Buller currently prefers the developed markets, primarily the US.

    Global Investing Mistakes. One of the biggest challenges noted by the panelists and often under looked by the investment community is FX risk. Hedging is quite difficult and expensive, leading many REIT management teams to simply do nothing. However, this exposes their firms and ultimately investors to undue risk from currency headwinds. Another challenge management teams and investors should be keen to look out for, as noted by Chaim Katzman, is cultural differences. As an example, Mr. Katzman said that management teams in the US tend to be more sophisticated and quick to move on projects, which can cause friction with their European colleagues. Adam Metz noted that in places like Hong Kong and China, real estate investor interests are often sidelined by tycoon families. Understanding the local dynamic and customs are essential. One last hang-up mentioned by Steve Buller was that all too often REITs seek out the best and priciest properties. Such assets may have limited return and instead Mr. Buller suggests management teams look at dirty assets, which may possess better potential upside.

    The Year Ahead: How to Make Money 2014 Moderator: Richard Saltzman, President, Colony Capital LLC

    Panelists: Jeff Blau, CEO, RELATED Companies

    Stephen Furnary, Chairman & CEO, Clarion Partners

    Jay Sugarman, Chairman & CEO, iStar Financial

    Rise in Market Has Been Liquidity Driven. Richard Salzman noted that we are in an interesting period. Over the last several years, market gains have been liquidity driven. There's been very little real improvement in the economy and growth patterns have been anemic. On the one hand, land values have recovered courtesy of monetary policy, but actual fundamentals are just beginning to improve. Going forward, he doesn't expect the same accommodative Fed policy.

    Slow Growth Is Our Friend. Stephen Furnary noted that even with the prospect of rising interest rates, he thinks it's being balanced by a slowly recovering economy. Investors bemoan slow growth, but it's being offset by limited development. For the most part, the industry is nowhere near peak development and that's been in the past one of the biggest

  • Barclays | U.S. REITs

    13 December 2013 12

    disasters. The slow growth environment elongates the length of the recovery. However, given rents have doubled and caps rates are at such low rates, then slow growth ultimately behooves investors. To offset the impact of higher rates, where it's possible, Clarion is lengthening the duration of its borrowing. However, a lot of investors don't like this. Even on the private side, clients speak up when they see leverage being used to extract incremental returns from a portfolio. Managing both sides of a balance sheet can help avoid the impact of rates. Strategically, it is trying to buy more assets and use more leverage.

    Related Is Doing well. Jeff Blau noted that at its core, Related is a development firm and for the markets in which they operate, it has been a positive environment. The majority of its efforts and exposure is in NYC. NYC employment is above where it was in 2007 and the economy is more diversified. Post 2008, it did quite a bit of development in a weak market amidst plentiful, cheap labor and materials. Now, its come out in a cycle in which it bought low, asset values have risen and its currently in a position to make a lot of money.

    Match Maturities to Lower Risk. Related has a lot of different assets, so it tries to match maturities. Related expects short rates to stay low. On retail and commercial assets, it locks in rates as much as possible. For multi-family and hotels, it prefers floating. The CEO thinks that the high level of capital flow and flight to safety (i.e. to hard real estate assets) is countering higher interest rates and he could even see cap rates going down.

    The Big Trade in 2014. Jay Sugarman envisions a situation when the government keeps short rates artificially low and lets long rates go up, allowing investors to make money easily. For example, if tapering occurs and agencies go up to 4% to 4.5%, the Fed will lend short rates at 0%, investors will borrow at AAA rates, leverage up and get as much return as possible. Each time this happens, the market tends to pull it back down, allowing investors to make a lot of money. This could happen since most of the world doesn't understand duration, in his view.

    Dislocation, not Distress. The market is experiencing dislocation, but not distress. The market is really competitive, but it still has dislocation and gaps and no one is selling cheap for non-economic reasons. Outside the U.S., Brazil and Mexico look pretty good. Brazil has pulled back a lot and Mexico has been a disaster. The underlying fundamentals of Mexico should yield good investment opportunities if one is a good operator.

  • Barclays | U.S. REITs

    13 December 2013 13

    ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S):

    I, Ross L. Smotrich, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related tothe specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

    IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

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    Guide to the Barclays Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:

    Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as Overweight, Equal Weight or Underweight (see definitions below)relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry (the "industry coverage universe").

    In addition to the stock rating, we provide industry views which rate the outlook for the industry coverage universe as Positive, Neutral or Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.

    Stock Rating

    Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

    Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

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    Industry View

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    Below is the list of companies that constitute the "industry coverage universe":

    U.S. REITs

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (ARE) Apartment Investment & Management Co. (AIV) Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI)

    Avalonbay Communities Inc. (AVB) Boston Properties Inc. (BXP) Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN)

    Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) Brookfield Office Properties (BPO) Camden Property Trust (CPT)

    Campus Crest Communities, Inc. (CCG) CBL & Associates Properties Inc. (CBL) CBRE Group, Inc. (CBG)

    Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR) Douglas Emmett Inc. (DEI) Duke Realty Corp. (DRE)

    DuPont Fabros Technology, Inc. (DFT) Equity One Inc. (EQY) Equity Residential (EQR)

    Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) Excel Trust Inc. (EXL) General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP)

    Home Properties Inc. (HME) Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. (JLL)

    Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM) Lexington Realty Trust (LXP) Macerich Company (MAC)

  • Barclays | U.S. REITs

    13 December 2013 14

    IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

    Mack-Cali Realty Corp. (CLI) Newcastle Investment Corp. (NCT) Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PEI)

    Post Properties Inc. (PPS) Prologis (PLD) Public Storage Inc. (PSA)

    Regency Centers Corp. (REG) Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG)

    UDR, Inc. (UDR) Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Winthrop Realty Trust (FUR)

    Distribution of Ratings:

    Barclays Equity Research has 2575 companies under coverage.

    44% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 49% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

    39% have been assigned an Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 43% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

    15% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 38% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

    Guide to the Barclays Research Price Target:

    Each analyst has a single price target on the stocks that they cover. The price target represents that analyst's expectation of where the stock will trade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analyst's pricetarget over the same 12-month period.

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