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Baron Hurricane Index Atlantic Case Studies

NOAA SBIR Phase II

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Hurricane Ike September 8, 2008

Advisory 31

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Hurricane Ike at the time of Advisory 31 was about to cross Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, and make landfall by the end of the 5-day forecast. This forecast track wound up being very similar to the actual track, with the landfall forecast to be a little further south then where Ike did make landfall in Galveston. Ike strengthened from a 65 knot storm entering the Gulf of Mexico to a 95 knot hurricane prior to landfall. The BHI consistently forecasted for Ike to remain in “Favorable” environmental conditions that would support strengthening, and it steadily did until reaching Galveston.

FORECAST: Advisory 31 INITIAL was issued as Ike’s position was just south of Cuba. All three products, Wind Shear, Sea Surface Temp, and Ocean Heat Content indicate favorable conditions for intensification. Therefore, the BHI algorithm indicates that Ike is in an environment “Highly Favorable” for strengthening. (NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point in time.) ACTUAL: Ike is currently a 70 knot Hurricane.

Initial

Hurricane Ike Advisory 31 September 8, 2008, 21 UTC

INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.4 -79.7 70 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8 -81.4 80 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.6 -83.2 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 10/0600Z 23.6 -84.8 75 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.4 -86.0 85 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5 -89.0 95 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0 -92.5 100 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0 -96.0 95 KT...INLAND

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NHC Forecast Track

Actual Track

Hurricane Ike Advisory 31 September 8, 2008, 21 UTC

INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.4 -79.7 70 KT

12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8 -81.4 80 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.6 -83.2 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 10/0600Z 23.6 -84.8 75 KT

48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.4 -86.0 85 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5 -89.0 95 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0 -92.5 100 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0 -96.0 95 KT...INLAND

FORECAST: Advisory 31 48HR is a FORECAST for Ike’s position and strength at 18z on 9/10/08. Once again, all three products, Wind Shear, Sea Surface Temp, and Ocean Heat Content indicate favorable conditions. Therefore, BHI algorithm indicates that Ike is in an environment “Highly Favorable” for strengthening. (NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point in time.) ACTUAL: Ike strengthened to winds of 85 knots, after maintaining 65 knot winds crossing Cuba. After crossing Cuba, Ike experienced the “Highly Favorable” environment.

48 Hr

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NHC Forecast Track

Actual Track

FORECAST: Advisory 31 96HR is a FORECAST for Ike’s position and strength at 18z on 9/12/08. In this case, Wind Shear is moderate but decreases as the storm approaches the Texas coast, Sea Surface Temp is moderate, and Ocean Heat Content is moderate. The BHI calculates Ike’s environment that as a mix of “Favorable” conditions where shear us lower and SST is higher and “Unfavorable” conditions. The SST cools closer to the coast, causing the BHI to indicate more “Unfavorable” to “Highly Unfavorable” conditions for intensification. (NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point in time.) ACTUAL: Ike peaked around this time at 90-96 knots. Ike sustained this intensity as it made landfall in Galveston.

96 Hr

Hurricane Ike Advisory 31 September 8, 2008, 21 UTC

INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.4 -79.7 70 KT

12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8 -81.4 80 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.6 -83.2 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 10/0600Z 23.6 -84.8 75 KT

48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.4 -86.0 85 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5 -89.0 95 KT

96HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0 -92.5 100 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0 -96.0 95 KT...INLAND

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NHC Forecast Track

Actual Track