Baseline Study on Climate Change in Bangladesh Delta

Copyright Bandudeltas - 2015

1

Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

and the

Baseline Study on Climate Change

Special Lecture, International Conference on Climate Change related to Water and Environment, 10 April 2015

Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga

in cooperation with Dewan Abdul Quadir and Fulco Ludwig and BDP team

[email protected]


2

Overview of the presentation

1. Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

2. Climate Change Baseline Study

1. Current Climate in Bangladesh

2. Climate Change

» Temperature

» Precipitation

» Sea level rise

» Tropical cyclones

3. Climate change scenarios and climate change in future

4. Demonstration: Interactive climate maps

5. Links to other baseline studies

6. Conclusions

Copyright Bandudeltas - 2015 3

II. What is a Delta Plan

Delta Plan

What is a Delta Plan?

Why would Bangladesh need one?

An indicative plan for the delta (=whole country)

To improve safe living and sound economic development

Longer term time frame (50 to 100 years)

Integrated and holistic plan

Based on a vision about the future

Need to cope with uncertainty and complexity – using vision and scenario development

It is a different approach to planning!

Not: knowing it all first, and then doing something

But: Parallel start between policy, research, implementation

Requires: Change in mindset (not business as usual)

Unusual business!

Working with a longer term vision (fore-casting – back-casting)

2010 2100

1 2 3 4 5 6

Instead of:

Create a longer term vision for e.g. 100 years (fore-casting, 1), use back casting to ‘translate’ it back to the present (2); and subsequently integrate it in regular (short and medium term) planning (3)

2010 2100 1

2

3

Copyright BanDuDeltAS - 2015 5

II. What is a Delta Plan

Importance of a Delta Plan for Bangladesh

Need of a Long Term Delta Vision and Program

Bangladesh:

Shows consistent average economic growth rate of 6%

Is on its way to become middle-income country by 2021

However,

Climate change is threatening these significant achievements,

as it is related to delta issues as flooding and droughts, sea level rise, salt-

water intrusion, access to fresh water, which influence water safety, food

production and economic growth

Challenges:

A long term integrated approach to water safety, food security and economic

growth in relation to future water and land management

An Institutional and governance setting to make such long term holistic Delta

Plan 2100 approach possible and implementable

Priorities for investments for the future to be set today

Copyright BanDuDeltAS - 2015 6

IV. Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

Partners to GoB/GoN: BanDuDeltAS

Plus sub contractor: Climate Adaptation Services foundation

Copyright Bandudeltas – 2015

7


Interactive Strategic Planning process

Governance, Content, and Stakeholders will come together, via learning cycles

Concepts:

- Planning as Learning

- Adapative Management

- Strategy Process sense-

making - sensegiving

8

Overall Process



Overall expected outputs

Inception Report

Background Reports on the delta themes creating a common

Knowledge Base by sharing those studies and data with stakeholders

involved

Input for the 7th Five Year Plan

An Institutional Delta Framework which contributes to BDP 2100

formulation and realization of new projects in line with the BDP 2100

A Delta Plan Document with Vision, Scenarios, Strategies/Measures

and Program

Implementation Strategy and Guideline for the coming 5 to10 years with

geographical and sectoral priorities for BDP 2100 implementation,

including 2 - 3 projects developed parallel to the BDP 2100 formulation

June 2014

December 2014

March 2015

2015

2016

2016



Clustering of Themes and Baseline Studies

Water Resources

I. Morphological dynamics of Bangladesh Delta

II. Water resources

III. Coastal Polder issues

Water Supply and Sanitation

I. Public heath, water supply and sanitation

Disaster Risk Reduction

I. Climate change issues

II. Disaster management

Spatial Planning

I. Land resources

II. Urbanization and settlement

Food Security

I. Agriculture and food security

II. Fisheries and livestock

Environmental Management

I. Ecological Settings

II. Forest and biodiversity

III. Environmental pollution

Economics and Finance

I. Growth of Population and Management in the context of resources setting

II. Socio-economic and demographic condition

III. Sustainable Transportation and Infrastructures

Governance

I. Information and creation of knowledge management Institution

II. Institutional framework/arrangement

III. Regional cooperation

Eight Clusters with 19 themes

to be studied

The Baseline Studies include:

- Quick scans

- Start up Document with

Study Plans

- Study of Baseline Conditions


Climate Change in BDP2100

Baseline Study Climate Change

Knowledge (What do we know?) Provide an overview on CC & impacts in

BGD

Identify knowledge gaps

Data (Which data do we need?) Make an inventory of key information

and Data

Current Climate of Bangladesh Analyze BMD data of 60 years for 35

stations and other reliable data on TC from JTWC and pear reviewed

publications.

CC Science and scenarios for BGD Current Climate Change

What are possible futures in respect of Development?

Develop initial climate change scenarios for BGD

Visualize: Develop key maps for stakeholder interaction

Develop Linkage with Other studies

Objectives:


I. Climate Change in BDP2100


Process related to the tasks:

Involving cc experts and policy makers in increasingly wider circles, collecting information, creating consensus

- Meeting with team (Dhaka, Rotterdam)

- Meeting with experts (16 Sep)

- Meeting with wider circle (Gobeshona platform)

Scenario team starting up

- Scenario team start (first note, October)

- Scenario meeting (4 Nov, Utrecht) also linking to socio-economic team


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Baseline Study on Climate

Change in Bangladesh Delta Delta Plan 2100 Project

1. Current Climate

• Temperature

• Rainfall

• Cyclone pattern

Method: Analysis BMD data, consultation, literature review




Introduction to Bangladesh Climate

• Vulnerable geographical position of Bangladesh: downstream confluence of mighty rivers, highly variable climate.

• Even more vulnerable due to climate change

• Dynamic changes

• Focus of the study: science of climate change,

• The results will feed to the other thematic studies

• Bangladesh Meteorological Network: 35 stations, data 1948-present




Seasons in Bangladesh

General Overview of Bangladesh Climate

Maximum Temperature: peak in April (33.5 0C) and secondary peak in September (31.6 0C).

Minimum Temperature:

The lowest minimum temperature is observed in January (12.5 0C).

Bangladesh annual 2425 mm; standard deviation of around 286 mm.

Monsoon: 1750 mm(72 % of the annual).

The pre-monsoon 17 % of the annual rainfall.

The post-monsoon season occupies 9 % of the annual rainfall.

The winter is relatively dry and receives about 1.5% of the annual rainfall.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Tem

pera

ture

( o C

)

0

1

2

3

Sta

ndar

d de

viat

ion

(o C

)

Mean TmaxMean TminSD TmaxSD Tmin

0

100

200

300

400

500

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Rainfall(mm)

S.D.

CV%

Ser.

No.

Coastal Region Number of

tropical cyclones

hit the coast

% of the total

number of

tropical cyclones

1 Sundarban coast (Satkhira, Khulna and

Bagerhat)

Central coast (Borguna, Potuakhali,

Pirozpur, Barisal, Bhola

17 27.9

2 Central coast (Borguna, Potuakhali,

Pirozpur, Barisal, Bhola

10 16.4

3 Meghna estuary, east central coast

(Noakhali and Chittagong)

16 26.2

4 Southeastern coast (Southern

Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar and Teknaf

18 29.5

Total 61 100

Coast wise distribution of Tropical Cyclones in Bangladesh (1961-20130




Cyclone tracks of some cyclones that hit

Bangladesh and adjacent territories during

the period 1991-2013

[prepared by BDP CC baseline team]


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Delta Plan 2100 Formulation Project

2. Current Climate Change

• Minimum and Maximum Temperature

• Rainfall

• Relative Sea Level Rise based on published data

• Tropical Cyclones using data of JTWC

• Trends of SST and response of SST on Tropical Cyclone Intensity (ongoing, not yet complete)

Method: Analysis BDM data, consultation, literature review

Current Temperature Trends

Country Avg Temperature (min, max and mean)

y = 0.0103x + 4.9261 R² = 0.3582

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

19

48

19

53

19

58

19

63

19

68

19

73

19

78

19

83

19

88

19

93

19

98

20

03

20

08

Tem

per

atu

re (°C

)

Year

Annual Trend of Mean Temperature

Season

Trend (oC/year)and R2 values

Tmin p Tmax p Tmea

n p

Annual 0.014 <0.001 0.008 <0.001 0.010 <0.001

Winter 0.021 <0.001 0.000 n.s. 0.013 <0.002

Pre-

monsoon 0.014 <0.002 -0.004 n.s. -0.001 n.s.

Monsoon 0.008 <0.001 0.015 <0.001 0.011 <0.001

Post-

monsoon 0.016 <0.001 0.024 0.528 0.016 <0.001

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Annual Winter Pre-mon Monsoon Post-mon

0C

/ye

ar

Tmin

Tmax

Annual Trend of Mean Temperature (0C/decade) (Shahid,2010)

.

CLIMATE RESEARCH, Vol. 42: 185–193, 2010

Rainfall

Season

Trend

value

(mm/year)

% of

Season

al

rainfall

in 50

year

R²

value Probability p

Winter 0.181 25 0.016 n.s.

Pre-

monsoon 1.719 20.5 0.055 <0.05

Monsoon 3.082 8.5 0.067 <0.05

Post-

monsoon

0.279 3.4 0.002 n.s.

Annual 5.207 10.7 0.102 <0.02

y = 5.207x - 7933.R² = 0.102

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Rain

fall

(mm

)

Year

Annual rainfall trends (mm/year) (Shahid,2010)

Pre-monsoon

Monsoon

Stations Latitude Longitude Sea Level Rise

(mm/year)

IPCC (AR5)

observed

1981-2000

Western Sundarban

Coast (Hazra, 2002)

- - 3.24

2.0 mm/year Hiron Point 21°48’ N 89°28’E 4

Char Changa 22°08’ N 91°06’E 6

Cox’s Bazar 21°26’ N 91°59’E 7.8

Observed Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) during the period 1978-1998

Based on tidal station data

• According to IPCC- AR5 (2014) observed SLR = 2.0 mm/year (1981-2000)

• The differential nature of SLR at 4 locations and with that in IPCC AR4

report indicate that the local factors are strong in Bay of Bengal coastal zone

in Bangladesh and adjacent areas. These factors are subsidence and

sedimentation, former being more dominant.




The study of CEGIS (2011) has

shown that the sea level rise is

• 5.5 mm/year at Hiron Point

• 7.5 mm/year at Mohesh Khali

• 5.1 mm/year at Cox’s Bazar

• 7.0 mm/ year at Sandwip.

The differential nature of the

observed sea level rise is also

related with subsidence of the

delta.

0

1

2

3

4

5

1978-1987 1988-1997 1998-2007

Vmax=>218

Changing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones of Bay of Bengal

• The long term variation of tropical cyclones have shown that the Cyclonic storms (Vmax= 62-88 km/hour) shows that the tropical cyclone frequency is decreasing •At the same time the severe cyclonic storms (Vmax>88 km/ hour) has increased using data of 1877-2004

a)

b)

c)

A. K. Singhvi, D. A. Quadir and others, 2010: INSTRUMENTAL, TERRESTRIAL AND MARINE RECORDS OF THE CLIMATE OF SOUTH ASIA DURING THE HOLOCENE: PRESENT STATUS, UNRESOLVED PROBLEMS AND SOCIETAL ASPECTS. In: 'Global Environment Changes in South Asia: A Regional Perspective', A.P. Mitra & C. Sharma (Eds.), Springer Publishing Co.

Variability and Trends of week and strong TC

y = 0.0162x + 0.4789 R² = 0.1280

0

1

2

1978 1983 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

An

nu

al f

req

ue

ncy

5 year moving average

Vmax=62-118 km/hour

Vmax>152 km/hour


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Baseline Study on Climate Change

Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 Formulation Project

3. Climate Change in the future

(climate change scenarios)

• Future temperature • Future rainfall • Runoff scenarios • Future Sea Level Rise (IPCC) • Future Tropical cyclone frequency and intensity • Meteorological indicator analysis

Method: IPCC Climate model results for south Asia using 5 GCMS : • MPI-ESM-LR • IPSL-CM5A-LR • HADGEM2-ES • ECEARTH • CNRM-CM5

Interpolated to 0.5x0.5 deg lat/lon

A few maps showing the preliminary results of climate scenarios

Average change in the rainfall (mm) at the end of the century (2070-2099 compared to 1970-1999) for rcp4.5 and rcp8.5.HIGHER QUALITY FIGURES WILL BE MADE Average change in the rainfall (mm) at the end of the century (2070-2099 compared to 1970-1999) for rcp4.5 and rcp8.5.HIGHER QUALITY FIGURES WILL BE MADE

Average change in the rainfall (mm) at the end of the century (2070-2099 compared to 1970-1999) for rcp4.5 and 8.5

Changes in the average length of the largest period of consecutive dry days at the end of the century (2070-2099 compared to 1970-1999) for respectively the rcp45 and the rcp85 scenario. A cdd period is counted when more than 5 consecutive dry days occur.




Future climate change: seasons

Next step: assess seasonal

characteristics of future climate

change

Parameters

- Temperature: Tmin, Tmax, cold spells, hot spells

- Rainfall: Average, seasonal rainfall, number of consecutive wet and dry days, extreme rainfall events (intensity)


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Baseline Study on Climate

Change in Bangladesh Delta Delta Plan 2100 Project

4. Interactive climate map http://www.climateadaptationservices.com/nl/interactieve-

klimaatatlas-bangladesh

Visualising the data – for discussion,

verification, planning

F:\BDP Atlas_Bangladesh_november2014.pdf

http://www.climateadaptationservices.com/nl/interactieve-klimaatatlas-bangladesh







F:/BDP Atlas_Bangladesh_november2014.pdf



5. Link to other baseline studies

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Water x x x x x x x

WatSan x x x x x x x

Drr&CC x x x x x x x x x

Spat.pl x x x x x x

Food sec x x x x x x x x x x x x

Envt mgt x x x x x x x x

Econ&Fin

Govern

Meteorological indicators 1. Average maximum temperature (Tmax) 2. Average minimum temperature (Tmin) 3. Difference Tmax-Tmin 4. Heatwaves (>5 days above normal) 5. Number of days Tmax above treshold 6. Average precipitation

7. Duration and length of dry spells 8. Duration and length of wet spells 9. Average rain intensity 10. Average highest one day prec.amount 11. Average highest 5 day prec.amount 12. Number of wet days

Clusters indicated (vertical column) and link to meteorological indicators


Climate Change in BDP2100


6. Conclusion

- Business as usual: Conclusion that more

research is needed

- Unusual: Scenarios/Focus on uncertainties

& Improving data availability for users

- Need for data collection at field level

(improve spatial data)

- Enhance the link from global models to the

field (enhance temporal and spatial data)

- Downscaling

- Translation of model results into useful

knowledge for planners (e.g. decadal

change)

- Provide factual data so that climate change

projects will be based on factual climate

change data

Ph

oto

c r

ed

it: C

are

l d

e G

roo

t

Documents

Baseline Study on Climate Change in Bangladesh Delta