Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
••
BCURA 1990 ROBENS COAl SCIENCE LECTURE
~.~.,.'
-. t ... ~~-~.;-:''", ~:.'
PREsENJEQ .AT' rHe-,IOYA(IN$TI1'trobN- ONHQVEMlER STHi::499Q~- - . --" .' - . .
-
The Greenhouse Effect and Global Worming
Slll JOHN MASOt-r CB FitS
..•.•
/
ne toU1 ~, ~,of cuboa di9Xick .~
u~.';J~~;~~~•• =)~~~ImaJSctaua.·J1600tC ron~'~ biosp~ ••.of '" '
c.;.'. --,~.,.';- .,.
~~:ffi;:~:'. ~n(J() J f(t~~ril
(~. '£ltii:nbfttl.!«J.f ' "Q/f ~B'Nt.."> ~At1{llIOpogel,K1)IIUs.'art,>.:Jl: r-U$iiind C:rnrtr; ,." .~91fJ).c';>'::i2,!/';· , . -:,
~ "~- "
2. The &lobaJ bud&ct or carl>on dioxide
lA order to estimate mo~ accurately (be future~ QCacmospbetic ~ dioxide, it willbcDCte5saq CO study aDd lIDC1etsWs4 ill 100" d~tW cbe"ompI*~ tl~8. The JK.'ObI~ is,that putitioGoC tho .,d.dedman·made wboo diQuck b:twoea ~~, ~ ~ ~Ospb.eR. u.volvec difficultcsti..atec.of~;ditr~.~ '~,~)'ti~.bctweeG aI00D0U' ~n, la itt~.:cdiDrJ1118 1.
betw.oea the Itroospbt.re and, tbG. Eu1h'. wrf~.wtUcb eltcced 200 Gte/fr. lbeat'lDOIpberc recam.lbout 3.4 GtCll' (almost SO" of (be tmiuioos)leavillll ate/)'f to b6takeG up bydJe 0CCIIIs. Theact fiXl~ of ~ ~ide, \1.;~t.belel)' bypbyCoplaok&04lrOwinJ'~:~ .~, lOOm orto, of ocec le.&out lOOGtCfJt~·"Cbc:.~ ••r~ ~letI'a,tria1 bi~bcte. MOscqt~~I"R~
E_1¥&~~
'-'.-_;".. ;,~ ',:,.-·'f.'
1·'2- !
~ iD cbe Ilmospbcnt win be &\Ibj~ toCOGSidcnb&owteecUi.ACy. HoMvcr. ID evea Jars«~ lies iD.die fu&ure ,1obI1 •.••• of iDercut ofeombuslioca or foIIa1 Cucb lad wood. for wILidaad.... ••••• from••••• 'Ui I*' - •cSoublc dailfi&\ln.
J. CatIMm cIioIdde. Cbe atmospbeR
•
About 19 ~ is absorbed by wate, vapour,ozooe Mddust IUSd about • ~b)' clouds as the ndiaUoa ~throuJb the a.cmospberc, so oaty 46 ~ il absorbed Itthe surface. ThiJ is traas(cmdco Ibt acmospbere ISiIlfra.nd ndiatioQ (a ad .l5 units where 100 wsiu~pre&CDts the 'iDcomin, solll'radialiOllJ ••• seasiblcbw(1 uni~). leavlne 24 wUli co napora1e wJl.ef
(. which later tOQdeasa to fonD clouds aod • I~
1Imua1 •.~ n.Ulr~of \04 ~
~". the ~. of the, .~ndiafiOa catbcti&hl haad ~ Q(fi~ 3. of ibI. ns\!Slits (l9<JW/ra;CQl.iUcd by~~·. ~'oal19 ~ .~cttJd throuch ".~'~ wiDdow cq'
"\ ..,cM ·other 106 bciQa ..' abIo&bcd··1Iy.1H~1~:ma~OA (19 .ui!i")Ip1~.;~~~~,Jlg(1
wu~·Of IHW/iQ.. '. • ..... . .
eoOCCQlratiOQ of ea.rbocl. diolide (lS4 ppmv) l~& ~vd allDO~Cftl1X of SO Wlm • I Dut~liDf la 600ppmv would'iDcruse the nUl 111only1 Wlm . &ad ~sc fh4. surf," ~~ by oalyO.9°K iD dle .bsoeo~ otr~k: effec:tldue &0WltuYIPQUt, cloUds. kc,ee;, .ne~itativc ~ ofthe vuiol&$ feccl-~ mcci1aniADi U! Ihe pbalclimate Jystem UQ ~ ~Uucci4cXdl ;..olD ~~u ofhJp,eomp'" IQQdeII d~ribci4 ia .SectioI· 7.However. I simple qJcu1atiQq t9f .~lill)ala~ UI~ itibniUD .• ' . .: .that· ,Cbe " •eil'I . .,; '""'~_"" ~~~'. IQ' '.~. V&pQUf ~d ~1i(y the~~.; riM ~ Ii>. ~ dkrdde;\ijoafadl.lr of1.~1o1•• ~ QQ'tbC ~ .~. Chc!inib~of~ ~~:tt60~d,~~~.W~& of~O.$ ~K.~ :- ", ,,'
,;/
'fABlE 1. GlOBAl WARM,t(Q ay QREENHOUSE a,,$t$ If4 1990 R£LATlVE TO 1765.
eo, 0i4 N,QCon~nltatioos. (17651 279 190 285Concentration (lm) 354 112() 310
pem Ilpb ppbIncreaseq heat flux 1.5 0.42 0.10%. contri~.tjOO5 60 18 l
crc., CfC1l HCFClZ0 0 0
280 480 320pet pp1 P!)t0.06 0.14 0.08 [-2.JOW/mz
12
6. Is areenhoux warmi"l app~ ia theohsen.dous?
.~I)' Insurfacetem.pmtuIeI"C. 0-$- .:
1900.~.
1980.1920 1940re.
//I 1 Tbc cimiliB of •••• f1vetu.ltiou Ut. ch. Cc~tu,~{\t I ~ IIl4 rho (actUaac ~ wanailll is litdy,( 110 be delayod lot (lOll» decadce becau.se of chc:
themsaJ iDcftiIof Cbeocau(_ ktioA '). &Ctoa"y..". tbat .._ are urural climatic nuctuatioas.If '" __ 1bIl:cbi, la it&doIId tbecu:e. "'" -1 w.• c:aupW ••.~ .••• eo .ti_e. ~Joar itwill. Cor. ~ sipll oc. M,,0.5-Kto· '- ~ ""'ODI)'pl~blM4· .ccouot~tt" t99O).of a eOupte6. atmospbenl~p~ ..w. la wbicb·Qdce tSioUde i'S allowed 10
. ~ at 1.pcr'taAWa c:olDpOUDd aM *0 doubleiD10 "...,. ptddI lA IWt'Ip Pc*' ~•.•••of 2 • ,ox:. • n. 01 0.$ -.c; ~J aftu 20
~'7. Model •• ulat:.loas andpredictiClftl 01 dimateaa..1.1····tatrof.odIoa
Qaups la pow •• "~ dlmatel due to~I'" will •••·smdr.1Iow ad dimwit tocJtMcc ..I&ovo ••••• ~ ••• dM aut ~OtoZO.)'t8II.it wiJI"-fOftl···"- __ sary·Co ftly bMvil)'0A.ad ptOdicIiooIot •••••• ~&Dd..w.n. ic. ~.t:"ladM.iD ••••Ibteece oflD),difec;l ~ coac:ma ~ CbI a~ .".et is .
;••••... a.hDaIt. tIltird,. OD 1ao4Ii. ~, wbidt~ . .,.., .·~·w:6iy do -yet~. ~ •• ~"b-'~.ectice. . . ... ...aiate •••••••••••••• tiIIil* •• cli~
-.eo&q)' .•••••••.. - .•••• ·ID··tIIOt......,..~•..~I~r.........•......~ .\ortst...,...,.. ••• -1wIea .~. duria,tM••• 20.,....; ••.•.•••••• ., •• ~ ill
·INVSAw.,·II'" Ri(~ Offke.UetiI ,...,.. dbt WIt~ .:OD dew!opiq•••• {O;iW •••• ,.. •••• pMictica ~)of,IbIPW""·.""t'CMifWtotlle ~ ••~, •••• (- fIIII.1M4 ->oal7dJrwP ,....,"'bialaa4~"""""". tucta.~at .•••••• ~_ tI••".,..,...u.tdcprocfiCdoaa olbta_ ~.lactia.te. ~ Of
1aIIl~ ••• ia¥oMJ'" 1CIDcltf.... ~cqoepben-~lt Uaebiolpben. treatecf· ••• .,.. •....,., ..c:oupd •• ~ BY•••• n..
·0CIeIII.p1t.1·atllljor • .,.ti~,_Ia.atoW ell••••••••• of dMiir··~ ···1Ddbelt· •• capacity.Moteo!IW.·..,·~ ....ty. ·DdI'*t lJetweeo.•••••••••••. potee·••. doesllle~. 1beOCIIIIIiI..,...IIlIOIt ••• f orMeam.dmide emiUedbJ···bIil·"" •• WI1t •••.• ~y 'warmia, of cbe.••- •••••.n. ~._' •••••••_ ~ •.JOOcI"'ofcbe~·addi"'beat flux ff'OftlIt» _otpIatIL ... ..
·.K~.()ftb •••~oped pem.pa thepo IIIIOet ~ -*l till tbo .,1obaI •••••
~pled to si. modeb of the OCCUl, LaadID4 ••ice. _ b.u ueci ••• to M\ldy * .t'fct$ of-..,doubli.a. lAc prucot lc~ of ca&boo 4i.o~_ 10 6Q) •.,.,aw.1.2 'fbt atmospMnc modd
Tbe.phydco-lIWbt~ ,.•~"of d!c .,~•• buo4. Oa •••• )'&icat.a'4)'Iwaiw laws ••,oWAldlebirth,powdl. ~8ID4~ or et...m ~ ~ ••.. ~ be ftIIOlvta '" ••IDOIW. la. cda« WOt4k, ••...•. ~ •• pwoperIy ......- .•• ftlcyUlt Of ••~&at. __ of1lll:itQ
ud dldrooa·J.ioar ~1M,1IDCOIb out tU CbIsmtUtt IiICaIa 1IItJticIGI.w caDGt· •• 1IIt1' •..,.
~edot iepceaea-S lDdivicNaU1 •.u••••••lot ~ ovtn11 cootri1Ntioa ~~ .••• ....,eouetV&lioo ~. by ~I daeir-sti~1 av.,.,eel propa1iu •• IInIII of~ ~ 1bat QIl be meuwed. ,.pan.moteritatioa .Of'~ ~·.acale,",cl.n"COl' Of ••••. ~.IID4 ..~ fcatuniI of··weatber_di•• ~t -.~. p4cW·01-..pNIIIIiIC',eu Irclefbt..
Tbe.·IDOdeII·"FCW* lbepriDciplef o(~of.mu&, •••• fihII.. aerp..1IIII •..,. ill aD ••.••••••..••..•~.~ ••....••-> ••••••. .,
·.100 JppIitcl'.·. paal ..Ol lit. die lawsettbett.Docbumiealli4radiativ..... •• Ik~ of __ of'bumic1 air. ~ epecilied•.••• ~ •..u...~ .•••,..•.,••..' ·:...,or••.•.•.••. _~· ••.. _~..:.~IDCl.•..•.l4 .•.,.,...-~ •••••• ~iM~ of ••••••••••~ ..taJ- •...,..,. ..•.of the'tOil. tail aisCWt..e,-- •••••..,.,;;;.•- •• cowr." oI111tiA••.,.........,w ... $ •..-..or- I'WIt1 Po
ne ~. is dividecliato It ccaccoW .••(It'Jev.II) ~·dse ••••••• _20. (,.,...30 km) wi\tl., .1mIs ....la. die 1iIIrfaCa·. ~ la,.00WC(IC k1arf4)alt~ .Clkult,tiQD ..of die surfo .a-of1Mal. ~ .••••• D.... .. "t"tacr. 1ft alto JStvdi.bafM.oiho ~=-"""llux~"IOU ••.••••••••• tu.diIoeAe..... ..,..YNiabIcI Me •.C*k1IJ••••. ca i~ ,ri4 ••••2.$ ~rees· '~A '.'15 ••••• lOctIitc••••1OIDe30,OOOpoiatldada level. et abcM 3$0,000poio&s iD ,It .
b
The main phYJicalproe.esac& rcplUeotecl in the model
~rer of heat hy;
• - solar ItId kn'estrial (infn-red) n.d.iatiO'Cl~includilllabiorpdon bylbe.~ ,ues waccr YJPQlK.~ mcni4c. OZODC IDd ~.e
-~tlCriDJ' &l)d~ by·clouds•.~~ •. the ·Earth'. ~ by.soil.
,,~LWa. Rl()W. 'W and sea ice and by IhoOQCUS
• sballow &Dddeep c:.aavectioa.
• cooduc.~ at t:be.'SafIb's surface
tU hydrolopw cycle!
• evaporation of moistllte from bad &11d ~autfaca. eoodcn.sauoa. in 1hc..atmosphere to formetc. miD_ --: ~0Cl). cakulatioo of.nm-off aDd soU ~
.lramport 'of bClt. ~ aDd 1flO1DCIIImm iD 1helowest IlluJospbcric la)"«.l (atmospbcric boundarytar-).by matJ.-cde ~ ID13tioGI
• tile frictioa..l ~ OQ the atmosphere exerted byrDouataias. the W:I4 .urface, brca1d.a, ••.• vity way. iathe at~ _ ~ waves OQ t1seocaa. surface.
SWtUI. from initial val•• derived ~OD a puIicuJar" '. pent.iqequatiou an . ill timo-*JM;., D:Ii.JM.ei, toaiqDCWn1ue& of 4ra ~I~ at all die~. &rid points, Which are Ihea avenged to aivemoodJ,ly'~ ,ieluea OYer tOtal iatep400 tilllCla ofyeat& or cik •• " '. . .The most imporbtd ~ variables are:
E·W tn4 N.s compDllelltS of the wiDe!Vedicat taOtioaAir tempeftture and lll.tuidityRei,.. f)f tU It IpOCified ~ sutfacaShort-lllcl lon,-w&Ve ndiatiOll fluxesQoud amov.at, hciJblIDd 1iqui4-watef coateatPrclCipitatioa •. niDI •••.AI.mQspbeck ,~ It Euth's surfaceLlD4svf¥e~Soil moishUe COQt.ealSQUW cover aDd dqMhSea-ice cover and ¥l~~Se&-surf.::c tempenturc
Th~ allQo5pbcric model is coupled to • ai.:npte shallowwcU-mixcd octarl. laya' QQ,(y SO m dt!ep. whichclUISpOrU heat horimoWly and verticallyaad aUOWJcomputations of the. ftuxes of heat. moi~ and
momentum. betWeen Cbe ocaa surface md the~ Aa CGtfI1-1Wa.Ql:e su..u:c. modd allowstM a.real covet, mowdepth Md tee thickDcss to be~ub,ted c.vety5 d.ap and tM a1bt4o CO d«reuerraduaUy as the k:c mellS and··rcccda. lbc SUffICekmperatureoflhe~.~i~tIlculaud from dle batbal.uce.~tioo alevery,moad time.~.
A. 24 bour iot.elrWoa. for 'dle whole syaWIl iDvolvcaabout ur1 numcric:&l operations. 10 Chat • c:omplercannul cycle ~ M:!otlt to IMNft 011 die most
. powerful supercomputcr. the CRAY YMP.
Sucb models have bcca mnarbhly SUCCC$SM Insimulatia, tbe maiD featum of !he ~ 11Qb.lc:limare. - the distribWOII gf temperature. raiDrdl.winds. dC•• aod Ibeir ~a1 and re&ioDal variatioas.They do. bowe:vcr. wntai,ll $Gmt. syslCmatiC errorS(diffem!Jt iD: diffen!dt model.) ad will requireronliJJucd 6eYdopmatt m4 i1Dpt'O'Rmcnt in onkt toprovick ~ ~oaslpredictioas o( thefnctloatty n.1t but. ~ ·.potMfWly voqimpor1aDl, claaops chat 11I41 rault from •• twa1. or~,,~
7.' ~lodcl_ubIioasfortM doubWw ofcarhoodiQx.ickt
1'ho cbaDJa iD ,lobi) ~ aI'I4,precipitatiooto be cxpectaf ftom • UIr 4ov.bliD, of carboDdioxWo •. 6QO ppm. •• ~ by 1beMeceoroloaical .ot1ic;e tDQdel ,·before cbe RCeat••••• 'ill •• ,~ ,0{ i::louds' deacritxd below.atO. &howD ia fiautelS • 7. n..~. achievedMlta dM ' . .~ by die IDOI.W
bII COJrIfI • with die eahallCed~ . the bi&hest JIiCIdiaedby ut, «,the , " A4eW"kd 'accouoIis a;tvalaod Mitcbdl (1981). AlthouehRCCIIt. , .'tQ ••.. ~.~sc:bc,.lIave pfOduco4 ~ c_P. Cbese 'upper'estimates ••.• ~ __ ~ they briq outmo~ elMY t,he pcnphied &Dd &ea&cw patternsof dae .\IIIUdi.&ft: IlOt Ift*l)' altaed ha.&beaewer si
The a10balavmp temperatw'e b ~ by S.t'K.acco~. by • US iDcrQse bl bodl .Jtobalprccipit&cioo ••• cVapORliw of Wit« from cbesw1..co. c.omp.nWo 1'O$Ul(l from other Idvaac:ed~ arc ahowaaT'" 1. 1'be cahanttd,radiative beatiD, of Ibe sutr.co duo to iDcn:ascI iDcatbaG. ,diodcfo ••• wa&w W{IOIK. QUIIS ~evaporatioa (whU:b .emjcts the tcDIpCRtuI'C rise),and ptOCJuc:a..., __ inteoso .lobaIty ••venpthydcolop:.J c)'d$. Eabaacc4 carbatt dioxide c;ausa_rased emissioa of Ioa&-wav. ndiatioo In;Nu dietop of I1tJe .t~ to spat:O at c:oasc:querrtl)'. acootiq of the. 1ttI~ (PiPB 5).
~~~~
~~~+
-~~~
~~~~
i·~~
~++~
~~~
, .~~~
~~~~
~~~~
~~~8
'f .~~~
~~~~
~~~~
~~.~
~~~~
~~~
'~fi
t+...
,....~
F---
I+-+
~~;.+
.M1
++
~H
-~~
~~
1..
;JII
i
i ;" •
3'H'~
~~,"
-+~~
~,y.
SH++
+~~~
~~~
•'~
:t:t
-'h
-T-H
4~
~S
- e_••
_._II.fl
le~!II"
__~,
,,_"'f
lftlp
e~,..
_~_
•••_"
"'_
·'--,.'
"Ill!
.-
-Ill
.•~-•..•--~
....-"
"""..-,
...
//iI
/I
I
TA8L( 2. GLOBAL MEAN CHANGES CAUSEO BY OOUBLlNG CO, AS PREDICTED BY VARIOUS MODElS UNDEREQUILIBRIUM CONDITIONS wmc OfFFERENTClOUO'S,CHEMfSAll models consi!.t of a globa' atmosphere '*"th 9 t6\ \ teYe\und a ,ha\low mi.ed-~ytf ocean witl'! presCflbed heat tfiMportModel Cloud(epr~se.ntation RadtatJ\1! properties T~~lure P~cipltatlon
ot cIotI<Is ttW·.·~· . li\tl'tase %FI~ed 5.2 15UKMO{l) Emplfital·hnke(Jto
relative humidityAII·water clouds.Compt,!ted liq\jid wate'and j:e ~ntant
fix~ 3.2 8
Variable-function of 1.9 3Wilt~ ancs keCQflt~t
fIxed 4.0 8
Fixed 4.8: 13Variable 3.5 4
UKMO (2}
t.I'5MO (3)
GFOC.If
EmpirieaMinkedto.·fe~~ humidity
GISSeGC ,.'UI(M9:.tlQF'Ol:,.G.GISS:GCCC,CaA
t·
.I
.I.I
/ December .February180 -t20W~N~~~~~~~------~~o 120t
iQ-- 60
30
o o
30
!0
Detember - Febl\laryISO 120w 120E 180~Nt---~~~--~~~~~~~~~~--~~~--~--1I:~N
9OS~~~~" "\180'"
/1.
--- ~II
"-to.)
,<,
P.•.·...f
1.".1:
,1 1>11
.'I'i'..
1.•'1•.·11'.•'"
..1.t..I..
•....
'..&..'..•.,..I..•:.,r.'I...·I'•
.·.~..s•...•i,'..'..1'·
'".r'".:
tJ...'I.'·.1.
i··•...•.
..I1s,!..
··I.·.,.fl·
.!.~...·.;i..".'.1
..1..•.·1,.·
.1.....i".i'ri
I-II
.....'
.I''."I
[I'11
f1,(1
1,I
.I..
r:.,t!
Sit
0·1
it.'
1:.
l11r
a,.,,
'L'.I.
'.(~
.~~,
l~fh
'sl31 i
lil~
~ff
I.".'
st,'.i.II
''.'
.:tf
I...,.
[•.
•...
'..'.
1'•••t..··I
I....•..
..,..•.
I.f..,4
'.'..1I.
JI"I"1
ft.
Cl"~I'
..~
t'
'.•
'1
1".e,I
t't
..'I
I.·'
.•.
f
:~Ua~.
,.~.4U.t.!I
!t··.ti~
t··:\.t.'i.·.
.r~I···..··'$ll
.·~i
,Ill...'.;~{.I·
JI··I'.till
."IJifh
~!!r
'tli
IfI.
r•t.
'•••·I
lI.
t;~
rI·
fp'·.
I..
I.•
I''01
•
t.i...
····.1~
Ji';~
1[l11,
.I.'.,.!.
':.'.1'.'.1.
..'.'.5,...'.I.·•.•.....'...
.I.,.1...•rl
.'I.
.~·~i
il"i'6t..!f
f.'.'
d.1.-;.1
-i=
!!5
lEZ:i
t'It
~:1.1,
6·Ji,JI
f«I~
···ll
.tll,J
'r1l
!.~
i,ll.i~U~
hhIt.5
;aI;t
'uIi
i'llf
f,."••
iI5J.
I'fIi
.f8ttf
[j',
f!~s.
f1-1J.
fr:
!I
C':iI
:r•f
f[
II
.'.i'.f.!
·..II.!t.:.
!..•11:.:lJ.I.'I
~..,,;.J,JlC
.1..'.J..•.•
.....,1:1·-.
t·.~.'"<..~
.',...•J,'.'"'
.11..,•..,1•....
•....~.'..'J.,•....
.4'.·1.'(.
I..'i.•.
l·.·I.:I.
.lll~
l1',t.
tjI...~
."!.f~.'.~.:.
~.'I
if~rfr
IJi
!"It.
}'.J
11:";
1.1
'.It
·••
••Jr2
,IIfa
i1i~
11.5
1111
SliJ1
,Jt..
tl,J~
f"·htl
.~dih
~lUilr=
J,rr..'
~;~t
~~".i'
"".·.'12.........•
..".•.......
.•..•...t..·..t...
..•.i~,.,r.
. l·.·'..·.'
1·.:..1.'
:.1.',.·:..'
'1,1'1••.
....·..•.,.1...••.1'.•.
.,..,".•..
...·{
·..:·.·I.,'.·'..'.··
.·.,·.'·'..'..'..:t.•
.•..
'.•...
...'.,.....
..•..
,.4"'.•..
..('''!~.•.
..:.
':i,.,
•."'C·J...
..•....
.,~..,..•
.,I,
·1,......
.•.1.',·
11..•..••..1ii.,
f,.,'•...
.Ii
R~
l:i
r•
'.',•
.if
f!lI
,I,,:
~J.f,
'.r!rt
,',
fI.i
_\It
''''C
~:
Ig;'
!it
i
li.
1.,.r
.1:'1·
'I.
..~
'I.
ge.
r..
•Alf
I~.~
'"J.i'1
tfj
(rJJi
;lh.[
Itil!J
Urttfh
!l!tH
j!rH!I,!
riF;
it:~~
IIf
1~Ii'r
eIt:l
f~rill
l5tlt
:E~I:r
;!t.;I
;f:l~t
1!IJ"
The'lqe tb~rmal.~ity qf tbo ~ IDI1 t1:1eir&bUlty to ~ . ..s. \nD.spoIt.' Some of lP',. a&titiooa1
~ loql«.c.etm chuaes. OIl ~es of decadea beal ~" ..f~ tbo cn.:e. lUea wt'U' ••• ,. IM&oceaturia..wiJ1belataclY~by,~o:eauo ~ .~ bUt ••..•...••• tt:s.t~ oal,.,iQdK sudacalJym,'~ ••• d~.Jtil ~~ will~UIO ri.., JOD'after IQ)'1henf~~U1.fD dev~ fidly~i~'" .•••.~ •••~~~,.ace..1lIia ••~,modch,of_llobll ~ ..~Whic1l .•.,.~ the' ~'.' .•~ ~ 1b6re.',' ..is...u yet. 80 toaviDcm,coupled' eo, .•.au4 drivai by, ,tht' wmdl .Jit Cbe o~.tiOcil1.~~o(,l.o~ risee.- todaeatmospheriC H ~. Sucb 1DIS4o\$. Ire ',~, aues~ul.tecajl!»"'1-r.·:dt:ve1opedih.~. USA Md", M~e;kaI:offict:. "v.;a ~C .~." •••• ';M ~1'1C) ~~t~~9f~.~ Willbo ~utilise diU ~'''~fC~i' ~.~ by Cbe 1Ict,~~.~·~,~IIl·thc~ .sutfIce
"'wPJ4··~-..l4'ciswI~ ".dIi:I~.Ia"" ~ 1Jt··.~•.~~(~~ct'fcetiYCOftho~i.~tIic 1JCVoI~~ .~1i1t1la be.t~iry9f~~;:~eb.is~by IbctbooUly1tWQj.a&, ~;: }JowcVcr.".:y.t.,. ~:;Qr ····'hcl6w ••• ~ wUally'
r.w1aa&~-iI3"~ "~-~·mIde~.~' ~lOO".··,\vai'mmID·~.·or:: .••.•..•·.·.·.<.~...·.·..~,.·,-.'_·,<. .'.':':'~'.··'·_"."~':"'~'·'~'·~_-"_"-"ft",:n,!..·..,..·.·~.••<-.-..'.'f~~O.~._,oaJ·.···.•~yf.:~~~ • .E.._u ...9'.-.._, •••••.•~. d &oats .cMt·•.•• -•.. ~of~".' ".•:0. >~.·....,'.i.:.~OIlsr.~t.:.·...~...··•.=.·.'.'.',=.< ..•·J:.'.':_~'··'·":',~4tM.••*.·.tm.'.·.~. b.:AbIU.' •••un.· 4imeari~'; •• ¥beii.~·~>tIiI=i.~9$gf ••. bf~ ••,<._J~eltPJo$iOQl+.~ ','
'ft._ .-.' ". . .••,~ ~..Jl. Will- •••.•·.i...-A&I!!II"~-;,- .... ~"'" --t-ai.E~l~_.
·fotdleit~tioDuatOr.tDe ." 'dog ..:s-::;~iOf':~;..:~I'*._it.·., . ".~.•'...~..'I)'I&emJtaclf~-·.PrOv:isUlG9f,~~.oa,l' ••.•..Of.dle mai4: ~'OC .•• ;Wad4·~-tQ*,uc:h.-' "-_.. Iba ·W~A. '.ace.. Ci ...··':..·:,f:lVpm!II&'" .·..on"" .... .~0Il.~. ~ ~~,.,M ••• (19I1)•
•• ~.~~ol"~~.~j_yl •• _edS;~;Uat ocrAQI .
V~, aD1bc Dloder'Ca1~ • ~-' 10 4a&o havo _,_ tblitbotb'fbe .8ormal
;' ~~{~~' ~tt<..t.'*tyItempctIWW bi.~ ·~of~~~'"ill oqui~ •• ~TM ~.~.double!l ••••060 ••••••• ·tho .modeI~'. -t.JtCIIl'."alJ0\W4 .10 .CQa ..'~ eqaUibri_ wiat ., .....IIIM'~'1Il cM·_woiI4dU.WiU IictOrblt cbo -
. ease bocaUM tb6 ltaoe ,.. '1'0 '.~iD£' ·,-ndu4tJ1wida Iima aac!···cba reipoae orebe cowcUmitelJ*aa
/, ',I
spatial nsolUlioa, ne tamer wiU requite moreinteasive study or the p~ ill Ihc rWalmospb.te asUt,lUlflty-in$l.fUmected C'UW'tbaUu21t. ra.dan, lasen. d(:. Riper fe$()lutioll.~blin. of wbich ~rusellbc &moqat. ofromputalioG It least a-fold. requira .ptaIcfrompllliJlJ power tJwl is ~t1,. availJbl.... 00.therdote.1wto choose, or effect. * ~mptomj~.bctweca ••.. 1.O!Jd' f«JJi.b te$Ol~ Idd'~cSetailecSp\,s~.~ U)~~,.oa1baOM. ~ .·Q4thc .·Ucd fQt IQIJI.1QO!Iet .·tUaS-:1q-studyiat«~ udIoaP .•.• ·~ Ut.cH. ODthe oChu.·
depc4ds VpoQ t variety ofpb)'sical &Ddbto-lcocbemicat pnxessea I«;.U, ()Il widely different\la~. 1)e. ltmospbere e . toc<th« with the seaice, the upper layc~ of the OCCID. and thel&HunK1C h~. ~ ctuitcnpidtl _ruch aquasi.equilibfiQaa iodae JDQdd." a!tu a fewmauaJ ~~IC$. ()QdJoodler<~ lite '~.~ctmJlatiOll and' the ~JIOd-blUCd ice ~u rapoDdanda· moR SJc;r.vb'~"1EIC ·~o(.lU14ra!s of ,.-.n;.ancllOwiJi ~~~llalbebiad tU· ~oftbe&UDO$f~".
13
/
It!
'j" .
<~. Rtes of cml$,iou. ~oa for wbicbdifftr SOwidelytIW a.timala of the time likely COelapse· befon: thecatOOD dio~We ~'~"~ ~ d.aycoac;c:atta1ioa raopfroCD ..•..SO .to .'J.~ )'tVI-
p~ ri-.iD ..awnp ..afobal ~ tor.D1QDber of emiMica JCeQari~publisbod •• tbelPCCRqIort. Hou,htoA,<cc AI (1990) arc .~iD Table 3.These arc eomput.d frOIll 'a liaplified
~b~,JDOdd ~l~"~~GDFL,1oba1 ~"lIX>dd~ribod ~;IO·.pvC.2 ..5 oJC ~ ..WhCIlia}5~i~ri!lDl·with·a doubled arboodi()xi4e~~ ... ... - .
flux of beat from dM: aurfac;e to ,real deptht (seeI Fipte 9) wbctc iti"Cored Ior 1D&111 4ec&d.. '1'his
very iotem.tio, result shO\lld be IRated wilh «u600.bccaU5C thi$ it oaJyth6 6.~ Cllperimellt with a'modddW. like all (.()Qp\e4 oeeao-lIlmOSphe3 models. Us
. consideftble difficulty in reprodllClaC the ~n~caof_.·-a moistuJo at ••. ~8C4.H~.it point.l ro the mocIemiIltaad dda)'jn,efT~toftM<!c:e&ISS oa ~w~ oltM~Accotdia. ·eo·this ~aCioe. • temperatwc. rise·o(O.s~~~fOC<Ut' aftec 2Q)'e&t'S.
Figu~9. Zqff4l:mttlif4(Jfprnce ;n femprlUlu~/'CJ oftlK~~·~~fltlJl.klb«ween m.t 11'"
::;~!;f.f{:':::"~=:t~h:iQ~~~~~~~i~tP6ItlIt!d Iq ~suifotes. . .','
lAB~3.futURt PRtotenON$ Of COlCONeENTJATIONS.ta$ES.IH:~LOSAL .T£MP(~1lJ,mANQ:"E~;uYJl.l.()R VARIOUSE¥{S.~t9N·SCE~Rt~··.:;:;;.!,..••..:~;..CA) ;BtJSINESS~~USU~~.HIGHt~tSsIONSCENARIO
.·~d1::~~\;J':u.:~~~=r::time,~"*,l5!Ki'~te~,.CH.&.'f'd Hp contirnlt10 rncr'~,e~ll~,!'~es . ....
c·.'-. 1990-~30.,;)206p 2100AQCO COI'I~l\tfatioo'354 '. 470'-~590"85O'~'~(~l '···Olk·t·:i?,~~
18J·~~~~!fir:Sl'f!ESAll!K)'U' .•.•..''. P:(l:12'U '1.6-$'4!.~ti..e-(~l ·OtS· 21·' 42
.',-\!~:~t~":·~,,: .' fQ$et~l'~-~ Si. It· 2~·l
(~)~~.A.~~l1t~'~;£M'$~. ·lggo...'2010;,~~~A~:flADECRf}&
~~_354'''';458'<t64. ATrK}7 ">0 <j)J3 0010se.·~~(~} Q·ii28" 3('
9.··~e..·re
>ar~~0~~$.- .••••• ~~apud
q•.•.•.~-r.:'DI
. ---.,. x--,
•a
-----~-
.~
<,
U!1
8fU
r:p
uC
l
ffi~
lf.1
~~flt
f•
iI.
_.-.
.-"
~..
-a,.
.'••
•..'
••...
..•.
86'
."'
..SI
.....
..
..--i
f.§
er
:.i\l
,f•9.
5ilt
".ftI)
!".bl..
fJhi
'.E
f.tIt
.g~C
lI8
ii"t8.fl
ltlttHl
!~!dJ
!fhn;~f
IJ:U.
rHI~
!IHil!
ii~~i
P!Hi5
.lJ't'j
.~J...~
~.·1.··'ll!
:l.l~.rl·...·1
e.I(IE
.·.:lfi...j·.
..t1ct.,.=..
..!r
.ilS.
ft.11.[
8.,'&1
tf.·
~
It-T(t
sIt
rBr'
1 18'.
Ill'"!-
~~.ta
~ItI
2la
'<i
g.I[
.'f
trllEs
·n!"
;II~
~~
:·tt•
.(J9.)IJ
f'l,jJli
.. I/
t
If- .' -.
NclJ. Tbf. del;iiioo of ~ IQv~t to restricl UI{emissions of Qrboa dioxide by lOOS to· CUIIent levels,I4d ID reduce: emissions of CFC. in tine with theMontreal AJfccment, arc realistic fl~ steps.
In additioQ~ wc mould Rvc!op. without delty,adap<iv~ sqatelies iD .,ricu1tuR. forestry. coastaldc~. ~cuppliM _IQ. qa.to maP Choo;onom1J~ V\llne •.•b1e todi~~1imJes ~.they~W. It. ~ ~ ..th4 we t.v •• breathUt, J.PACC
of some .sO)'efn but'this may,pcove tooQPtill:listlf;m_y ~. itil (J0De too loo,. . .
'\~'~~mt
1'billwp~ v~ion~f the .~lW1: "$Ja($lSlr~(lCI-.mQ\6 .~.liUed;"JlttQ~>iffect".~iD CQ~Icmp,M'Pilysi~ iD Nov~mb« 1989~>~wutellded ..s brouiI1t ~ •... , ....
.'-": "..~'.'',
Mad,8.1.,·Ccla~:Pb,....u..p..~9.1?ali".
Mi~~.J,,~ •• ~$eGior.C:A. ~101flm. ".5.N•.••• Hh·p.lJ1. 1989. .
wiI~C.~ aad~i~n.I.p~ •..I.(ifJopIl)'lo .••• u.',.U)l~··1~'7.
