Upload
others
View
13
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
December 2019
BCV Swiss Franc Bonds
2
3.48%3.70%
5.48%
0.11%
5.90%
2.08% 2.16%
0.61%
-0.04%
2.53%
3.19%
1.84%
5.91%
-0.55%
4.71%
0.86%1.06%
0.20%
-1.01%
2.49%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
BCV Swiss Franc Bonds SBI AAA-BBB Peer Group Lipper Schweiz
Expertise in Swiss bonds
Gross performance for the fund
Recognized experience in managing Swiss franc bonds by the 2016 & 2017 «Bester Fonds» FERI
award
Source: BCV, Bloomberg, Lipper
3
Swiss Franc Bonds universe: SBI AAA-BBB
Source: BCV, Barclays Point
SBI AAA-BBBMarket
value (%)Yield (%) Duration CHF (Bn) # Issues
Confederation 16.53 -0.24 12.67 81 23
Pfandbriefe 26.00 -0.05 7.74 127 214
Gov. related & securitized 29.30 -0.06 7.32 143 624
Corporates 28.17 0.14 4.84 138 610
Total 100.00 -0.07 7.61 488 1471
Total [1;5] [5;10] [10;+[
High Grade MV(%) 72.1 23.4 24.7 24.0
Yield (%) -0.19 -0.50 -0.31 -0.08
Corporates MV(%) 27.9 17.5 9.1 1.3
Yield (%) 0.07 -0.08 0.09 0.49
Market
value (%)Yield (%) Duration Spread
AAA & AA 77.01 -0.12 8.45 28
A-BBB 22.99 0.20 4.81 75
4
Recent rates and credit spread evolution
• After two years during which CHF 10 year yield fluctuated
between -0.20% and +0.20%, interest rates failed to hold
and dropped in 2019
• Among the global economic slowdown and trade tensions
backdrop, yields were pushed to record lows before
rebounding during last quarter thanks to an improvement in
investor sentiment
• Yield curve also significantly flattened mostly on the long
end
• The U-turn initiated by the Fed at the beginning of the
year switching from tightening to easing mode and
followed by the main central banks across the globe
created a favourable environment for credit. In this context
spreads tightened considerably. Thus “SBI BBB” rated
index performed +3.94%, close to the Swiss treasuries
performance of 4.47% but with a duration three times
lower
2019
-0.25
-0.47
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
Conf. 10 ans
Source: BCV, Bloomberg
2019
147
91
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
12.2016 06.2017 12.2017 06.2018 12.2018 06.2019 12.2019
Spread CHF BBB
Spread BBB
5
5.69%
4.47%
3.15%
3.05%
2.97%
2.06%
-1.00%
1.00%
3.00%
5.00%
7.00%
9.00%
11.00%
13.00%
12.2018 01.2019 03.2019 04.2019 05.2019 06.2019 07.2019 08.2019 09.2019 10.2019 11.2019 12.2019
Swiss Fixed Income Market Performance
• All sectors recorded positive performance in 2019 thanks to both a decrease in yields and to credit spread
tightening
• Domestic utilities exhibited the best performance with 5.69% supported by an important spread tightening of the
sector and a higher carry compared to other corporate sectors
• Swiss treasuries also enjoyed a strong performance of+4.47% thanks to the fall in yields, mostly on the long-end
of the curve
Duration Rates Spread Total
SBI AAA-BBB 7.56 1.53% 1.52% 3.05%
SBI Confederation 12.54 4.47% 0.00% 4.47%
SBI Foreign Financials 4.07 -0.45% 2.51% 2.06%
SBI Domestic Industrials 5.60 0.43% 2.72% 3.15%
SBI Domestic Utilities 5.97 0.41% 5.28% 5.69%
SBI Lettres de Gage 7.69 1.56% 1.41% 2.97%
Source: BCV, Bloomberg
6
Gross performance 2019
• Short positioning in duration has been the main factor explaining the lag in performance this year
• Overweight in corporates mainly financials and domestic utilities on tenor shorter than 5 years has contributed
positively through higher carry and spread tightening mitigating in part the impact of the short duration
BCV Swiss Franc Bonds SBI AAA-BBB
2.53%
3.05%
-2.10%
-0.10%
1.90%
3.90%
5.90%
7.90%
12.2018 01.2019 03.2019 03.2019 04.2019 05.2019 06.2019 07.2019 08.2019 09.2019 10.2019 11.2019 12.2019
Differential
Performance (%) FundSBI
AAA-BBBDifference
Carry 0.14% -0.01% 0.15%
Rates 1.12% 1.99% -0.87%
Credit 1.27% 1.07% 0.20%
Total 2.53% 3.05% -0.52%
Source: BCV, Bloomberg
7
Long term performance attribution
• The carry of the fund has contributed positively each
years. Credit carry has compensated the carry forgone
by a short duration positioning
• Excluding 2014 and 2019, years in which interest
rates have fallen sharply, the impact of rates on overall
performance has been moderate
• Most of the time, Credit risk management has
contributed positively on the performance when carry
and spread change is taken together
Carry
(pb)
Rates
(pb)
Credit
(pb)
Gross
perf. (pb)
2012
Fund 158 70 321 548
Index 123 73 225 421
35 -4 96 127
2013
Fund 172 -279 118 11
Index 132 -308 46 -130
40 29 72 140
2014
Fund 150 335 104 590
Index 110 452 120 682
40 -117 -16 -92
2015
Fund 99 281 -172 208
Index 49 260 -132 177
50 21 -40 31
2016
Fund 65 137 15 216
Index 24 111 -3 132
41 26 18 84
2017
Fund 68 -42 35 61
Index 49 -47 11 13
19 5 24 48
2018
Fund 64 22 -90 -4
Index 57 43 -93 7
7 -21 3 -11
2019
Fund 14 112 127 253
Index -1 199 107 305
15 -87 20 -52
Source: BCV, Bloomberg
BCV Swiss Franc
Bonds*
SBI
AAA-BBBDifference
2011 3.70% 4.83% -1.13%
2012 5.47% 4.21% 1.26%
2013 0.11% -1.30% 1.41%
2014 5.89% 6.82% -0.93%
2015 2.09% 1.77% 0.32%
2016 2.16% 1.32% 0.84%
2017 0.60% 0.13% 0.47%
2018 -0.03% 0.07% -0.10%
2019 2.53% 3.05% -0.52%
Annualized 2.48% 2.29% 0.19%
* Gross of fees
8
Fund Characteristics
Attractive carry…
The yield of the portfolio is 0.06% compared to -0.07%
for the benchmark
72.1% of the index exhibits negative yields compared to
46% for the fund
…despite lower duration
Short positioning in duration is at -1.35 years with
respect to the benchmark and is focused on the long end
of the curve, tenor 10 years and more
Credit exposure
• Underweight on very high grade bonds rated
AAA and AA in favour of corporate bonds
which offer higher yield and lower duration
• Overweight of 14.6% in BBB rated bonds is
concentrated on tenor less than five years
• Low exposure to high yield bonds
Exposure by rating
0.0
0.0
10.2
12.8
23.9
53.1
3.2
0.5
24.8
22.6
10.5
38.4
-5.0 5.0 15.0 25.0 35.0 45.0 55.0 65.0
Cash
BB
BBB
A
AA
AAA
Fund Index
BCV Swiss
Franc Bonds
SBI
AAA-BBB
Yield (%) 0.06 -0.07
Duration 6.26 7.61
Spread 56 39
Duration Time Spread (DTS) 1.27 0.96
Positions 361 1471
Rating AA-/A+ AA/AA-
Ex-ante volatility (%) 2.81 3.28
Ex-ante beta 0.61
Source: BCV, Bloomberg
9
Relative duration (ctrb) Total ]0;5] [5;10] [10;+[
Confederation -1.95 -0.10 -0.29 -1.57
Pfandbriefe 1.36 -0.21 0.24 1.33
Gov. Related & Securitized -0.93 -0.13 -0.22 -0.58
Corporates 0.18 0.36 -0.15 -0.03
Total -1.35 -0.07 -0.42 -0.85
• Strategic overweight on corporates bonds on the front end of the credit curve
• Tactically neutral on longer tenor in credit as this bucket is more sensitive to volatility => opportunistic approach
Duration and Credit positioning
• Short positioning in duration is focused on the long end of the curve 10 years and more, on treasuries (Confederation)
and government related like cantons and cities
• The shorter duration in government related and securitized is offset by the overweight in domestic Pfanbriefe which
offer more liquidity for the yield.
Duration
Credit
Net exposure (%) [10;+[
Confederation -7.82
Pfandbriefe 8.30
Gov. Related & Securitized -4.74
Corporates -0.31
Total -4.26
Net exposure (%) Total ]0;3] [3;5.5] [5.5;10] [10;+[
High Grade -23.92 -8.71 -9.29 -1.66 -4.26
Corporates 20.74 19.64 4.19 -2.78 -0.31
Cash 3.18
Total 0.00 10.94 -5.11 -4.44 -4.57
SBI AAA-BBB
yield (%)]0;3] [3;5.5]
High Grade -0.51 -0.40
Corporates -0.08 0.02
Source: BCV, Bloomberg
10
65
0
50
100
150
200
250
bp
s
CHF Swaps 5Y30Y
CHF Swaps 5Y30Y Moyenne
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Yield (%)
Differential
-0.35
0.06
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Yield (%)
SWISS 3.5 04/08/2033 PSHYPO 2.125 11/28/2033
Attractive yield pick-up on «Pfandbriefe» versus
Confederation
Source: BCV, Bloomberg
• Yield spread between “Securitized” stands at 40
bps for equivalent duration risk…
• ... interesting pick up in a carry environment
11
Investment themes and positioning
• Financials : Overweight focused on tenor less than five years
Favour Non Preferred Senior (NPS) versus Seniors
• Domestic utilities: Defensive sector with higher spread relative to other corporate sectors
• Real Estate : Exposure on shorter bonds less than 3 years which offer attractive on a relative basis
• Confederation : Underweight on treasuries as the entire curve including tenor 50 years is in negative
territory
Market value
(%)
Net exposure
(%)
Relative
duration [cntr] Spread Yield (%)
Total 100.00 0.00 -1.35 56 0.06
Financials 25.28 13.38 0.31 76 0.09
Industrials 12.94 0.63 -0.26 65 0.03
Utilities 6.76 4.30 0.12 93 0.68
Real Estate 3.94 2.43 0.01 66 0.05
Pfandbriefe 30.21 4.21 1.36 38 0.04
Gov. Related & Securitized 16.65 -12.65 -0.93 51 0.02
Confederation 1.05 -15.48 -1.95 0 -0.22
Cash 3.18 3.18
Source: BCV, Bloomberg
12
Positioning
Source: Bloomberg, BCV
Exposure by sector
Favour financials and domestic utilities
Exposure by country
Weight (%) FundSBI
AAA-BBBDifference
Italy 1.7 0.2 1.4
Spain 1.4 0.4 1.1
Luxembourg 1.0 0.1 0.9
United States 4.1 3.4 0.8
Russia 1.4 0.6 0.8
Poland 1.0 0.3 0.7
Austria 2.0 1.4 0.6
Mexico 0.9 0.3 0.5
South Korea 1.3 1.0 0.2
Qatar 0.3 0.1 0.2
Finland 0.6 0.5 0.0
India 0.0 0.0 0.0
United Kingdom 0.9 0.9 0.0
Ireland 0.1 0.1 0.0
Philippines 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slovakia 0.0 0.1 -0.1
Denmark 0.2 0.3 -0.1
Kazakhstan 0.0 0.1 -0.1
Norway 0.3 0.4 -0.1
France 3.4 3.7 -0.3
United Arab Emirates 0.1 0.4 -0.3
Sweden 0.1 0.6 -0.4
Liechtenstein 0.2 0.6 -0.4
New Zealand 0.1 0.6 -0.4
Germany 1.4 2.1 -0.6
Canada 0.4 1.4 -1.0
Supranational 1.8 2.8 -1.1
Netherlands 0.9 2.1 -1.2
Australia 0.1 1.3 -1.3
Switzerland 71.0 73.9 -3.0
Cash 3.2 0.0 3.2
FundSBI
AAA-BBBDifference
Domestic 70.6 74.5 -4.0
Confederation 1.1 16.5 -15.5
Gov Related 6.3 18.1 -11.8
Securitised 33.9 26.6 7.3
Corporate Financials 15.2 4.8 10.4
Corporate Industrials 7.6 6.5 1.1
Corporate Utilities 6.5 1.9 4.6
Foreign 26.3 25.5 0.8
Gov Related 3.5 7.4 -3.9
Securitised 3.2 3.1 0.0
Corporate Financials 14.0 8.6 5.4
Corporate Industrials 5.4 5.8 -0.4
Corporate Utilities 0.3 0.5 -0.3
Cash 3.2 3.2
13
Corporate bonds longer than one year
• The 10 biggest positions in corporate bonds longer than one year represent 5.9%, all shorter than five
years
Biggest corporate exposure
Net exposure by issuer
• Biggest overweight on issuers are focused
financials and utilities
• Except on Kwlili, a domestic utilities with
longer dated bonds, duration is close or lower
than 5 years
Issuer Description NominalWeight
(%)
Yield
(%)Spread Duration Rating
HYPO NOE LB NOE WIEN AG HYNOE 0.2 03/31/22 7'075'000 0.76 -0.24 51 2.24 A
BAWAG P.S.K. BAWAG 0.01 09/15/21 6'070'000 0.64 0.10 87 1.71 A
RAIFFEISEN SCHWEIZ RAIFFS 3 ⅞ 12/21/21 5'515'000 0.63 0.00 76 1.93 BBB+
BANCO SANTANDER SA SANTAN 0 ¾ 06/12/23 5'500'000 0.60 0.05 76 3.40 BBB+
GAZPROM (GAZ CAPITAL SA) GAZPRU 2 ¾ 11/30/21 5'275'000 0.59 0.03 80 1.89 BBB-
PSP SWISS PROPERTY AG PSPNSW 0 ½ 02/16/24 5'300'000 0.57 0.04 72 4.08 A-
ADUNO HOLDING AG ADUHOL 1 ⅛ 07/16/21 5'175'000 0.56 -0.23 54 1.53 A
SULZER AG SUNSW 0 ¼ 07/06/20 4'900'000 0.52 0.00 78 0.51 BBB
PARTNERS GROUP HOLDING PGHNSW 0.15 06/07/24 4'700'000 0.50 0.08 75 4.42 A
CRED SUIS GP FUN LTD CS 1 04/14/23 4'500'000 0.49 -0.02 69 3.23 BBB
IssuerWeight
(%)
Net exposure
(%)Duration
CREDIT SUISSE 1.70 1.27 2.96
ALLREAL HOLDING AG 1.23 1.02 1.72
AXPO HOLDING AG 1.13 0.98 0.77
KRAFTWERKE LINTH LIMMERN 1.39 0.92 7.11
HYPO NOE LB NOE WIEN AG 0.98 0.89 1.96
MET LIFE GLOB FUNDING I 1.05 0.86 5.18
GRANDE DIXENCE SA 0.99 0.84 4.52
FCA CAPITAL SUISSE SA 0.83 0.78 1.07
BALOISE HOLDING AG 1.03 0.73 1.85
COMMERZBANK FINANCE & CO 0.73 0.73 2.86
Source: Bloomberg, BCV
14
Investment Process
Strategy is built around three axes:
Strategic and tactical allocation
• High grade bonds versus credit bonds
• By region: Domestic versus foreign issuers
• Sector and rating
Positioning on the interest rate curve
• Outright level of portfolio duration
• Steepener / flattener
Bottom-up & credit risk
• Security selection based on strong bottom-up
approach
• Diversification of issuers
• Complete coverage of Swiss universe
15
Portfolio Management Team
Agim Xhaja joined BCV
Asset Management as head
of fixed income in 2006. He
also manages different
mandates and funds in Swiss
and International bond
portfolios. Previously he held
various positions in the credit
risk control and financial
research divisions for UBS in
Zurich and also worked in
Man Investment as financial
engineer.
He has more than 20 years
of experience in different
aspects of fixed income.
He holds a PhD in Finance
through the FAME program
(now the Swiss Financial
Institute) and the University
of Lausanne, and a Master’s
in International Economics
from the Graduate Institute of
International Studies in
Geneva. He also has a
degree in Mathematics from
the University of Tirana.
Joël Lopes joined fixed
income team in January
2014 and manages semi-
active and index-based
bond funds and
discretionary mandates
denominated in Swiss
francs.
He holds a Master's in
economics from the
University of Neuchâtel and
a Bachelor's in
management from the
Business and Economics
Faculty of the University of
Lausanne.
He has five years of
financial-market
experience.
Gaël Fichan is foreign
currency bond investment
manager responsible for
selecting securities and
building portfolios. He
brings a bottom-up
perspective to the bonds
investment committee. A
part of our team since
2013, Mr. Fichan has five
years of experience in the
financial industry.
He previously worked at
Swisscanto on the fixed
income investment team
and holds a Master's in
Banking and Finance (joint
degree program between
the: University of Zurich
and ESGF Business
School, Paris).
A member of BCV's fixed-
income investment team
since October 2015, David
Wehrli manages bond
funds and asset
management mandates in
selecting sector-specific
securities from, for
example, the non-cyclical
consumer goods and
automotive sectors.
He has a Master in
Finance and a Bachelor in
Accounting and Finance
from the University of
Neuchâtel.
Agim Xhaja Gaël Fichan Joël Lopes David Wehrli
PhD, CIO Fixed Income Investment Manager Investment Manager Investment Manager
Julien manages bonds
funds and mandates. He is
in charge of selecting
securities and building
portfolios. Julien worked for
more than 3 years at
Edmond de Rothschild as
interest rates and
currencies portfolio
manager. Prior to that, he
spent 7 seven years as a
bonds and commodities
fund manager at Diapason
Commodities
Management. He hold a
Bachelor in Management
and a Master in Financial
Engineering from HEC
Lausanne a well as a
license in Mathematics
from the Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology of
Lausanne.
Julien Marcel
Investment Manager
16
Fund Facts
Legal structure Swiss-based fund approved by FINMA, in the “Other traditional investment funds” category
Registered in Switzerland
Custodian Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCV), Lausanne, Switzerland
Auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers SA, Pully, Switzerland
Fund manager Gérifonds, Lausanne, Switzerland
Index SBI AAA-BBB TR
Liquidity Daily
Inception 27.04.2005
Flat fee (pa)
Class A: 0.60%
Class B: 0.30% (min. of CHF 5m)
Class C: 0.25% (min. of CHF 30m)
Base currency CHF
ISIN / TK
Class A: CH0020943954 / 2094395
Class B: CH0020944051 / 2094405
Class C: CH0020944150 / 2094415
17
Your Asset Management Advisor
021 212 31 18
Banque Cantonale Vaudoise
Asset Management
CP 300 [email protected]
1001 Lausanne www.bcv.ch/invest
Frédéric Gardet Urs ZieglerMichel Aubry
044 388 71 30
Banque Cantonale Vaudoise
Asset Management
Talacker 35 [email protected]
8001 Zürich www.bcv.ch/invest
Gilles Guyaz Philippe
Maeder
Martin Koenig Ulrich Lüthy Philippe Schlatter
Jürg BaltenspergerRiccardo Cutruneo Adrian Leiser
Sergio Del GottardoJulien Brasey
18
Important legal information
Waiver of liability. While we make every reasonable effort to use reliable information, we make no representation or warranty of any kind that all informationcontained in this document is accurate or complete. Only values and performance figures calculated by the custodian bank are authoritative. We disclaim all liabilityor responsibility for any loss, damage or injury that may result directly or indirectly from this information. The information and opinions contained in this document arerepresentative of the situation on the date this document was prepared and may change at any time, particularly as a result of changes in the general market trend,interest rates and exchange rates, and legislative and/or regulatory changes. We are under no obligation to update or modify this document.
No offer or recommendation. This document is for information purposes only; it does not constitute bookbuilding, an offer to buy or sell or a personalizedinvestment recommendation. Before conducting any transaction, we recommend that you contact your advisors to carry out a specific examination of your risk profileand that you seek information about the risks involved. One such source of information is the SwissBanking brochure "Special risks in securities trading" (available atBCV offices and on the BCV website www.bcv.ch). In particular, we draw your attention to the fact that prior performance must not be taken as a guarantee of currentor future performance, and does not take into account commissions or fees for the issuance/purchase or redemption/sale of units.
Interests in certain securities and relations with third parties. It is possible that BCV, companies in our Group and/or their directors, managers and employeeshold or have held interests in or positions on certain securities, which they may buy or sell at any time, or that they have acted or traded as a market maker. Theymay have or have had business relationships with the issuers of certain securities, or provide or have provided them with corporate finance services, capital marketservices or any other financial services.
Restrictions on distribution. Certain transactions and/or the distribution of this document may be prohibited or subject to restrictions for persons in jurisdictionsother than Switzerland (particularly Germany, the EU, the UK, and the USA) and for US persons. The distribution of this document is only authorized to the extentallowed by applicable law.
Trademark and copyright. The BCV logo and trademark are protected by law. This document is subject to copyright and may not be reproduced unless thereproduction mentions its author, copyright and all the legal information it contains. Prior written authorization from BCV is required to use this document for public orcommercial purposes.
Telephone. Please note that calls to BCV phone numbers may be recorded. By calling us, you tacitly agree to this practice.