BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO

Stockholm 5-6 October 2009

Anders Kofoed-Wiuff,

Ea Energy Analyses

Objectives1. To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the

involvement of key stakeholders

2. To provide a substantial basis for discussion of different energy scenarios for the region based on an analysis of energy data

May 2008 Oct 2009

Process

Feb 2009

Developing scenarios

ScenarioAnalyses

Fuel pricesEnergy

demand

Infrastructure

Technology

data Renewable resources

Efficiency measures

Stakeholder dialogue

CO2-emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

DG TREN1990

DG TREN2005

Ref_North NorthScenario

DG TREN2030

Storage CO2

Other energy

Electricity and district heat

Tranport

Results

Phase I

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005

TJ/M€ Energy intensity

Old democracies New democracies

-

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

2005 Reference 2030 Small-Tech Big-Tech

PJ

Gross energy consumption

Nuclear

RE

Natural gas

Coal

Oil

50% oil target

-200

-

200

400

600

800

1.000

Mt CO2 / year CO2- emissions

Other energy

Electricity and district heat

Transport

Stored CO2

50% CO2 target

Targets for 2030CO2: -50 % (1990)Oil: -50 % (2005)

Phase II

• Targets– 2020: EU targets for CO2 and RE

– 2030: 50 % CO2 reduction compared to 1990

• Model decides new investments in generation capacity except nuclear and hydro power

• Fuel prices according to International Energy Agency - 120 $/bbl in 2030

• Baseline scenario and three variations– Regional targets for renewable energy– Lower electricity demand– More CO2 reduction in 2020

Detailed analyses of the electricity markets 2010-2030

A balanced view on nuclear power

Future generation capacity

Generation outlook

Utilisation of biomass resources

Long term potential for forestry residues and energy crops

Long term biogas potential

Long term biowaste potential

Long term municipal waste potential

-

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

PJ

Utilization of biomass resources

Biogas Biowaste Municipal waste Forestry residues and energy crops

CO2emissions

• Marginal CO2 price - 7 €/ton in 2020- 60 €/ton in 2030

Marginal cost of increasing RE generation0 – 30 €/MWh in 20200 - 11 €/MWh in 2030

Scenario variations

• Regional target for increasing the share of renewable energy– Benefit: 5 billion Euro NPV , One RE price: 19 €/MWh

• 10 percentage points additional CO2 reduction in 2020– Cost: 16 billion Euro NPV, CO2-price in 2020: 7 => 30 €/ton

• Lower electricity demand (approx. -22 %)– Benefit: > 100 billion Euro NPV

(excl. cost of saving measures)– Electricity price: 40-50 €/MWh in 2020

Key findings

• The targets can be met at reasonable costs

• Potential for more efficient generation and consumption

• Benefits of regional cooperation– Interconnectors– Electricity markets– RE policies and projects

• Stronger targets are possible

Recommendations from the stakeholder dialogue• shared vision “A Green Valley of

Europe”• energy stakeholder forum• regional projects• common interconnector strategy• action plan for efficient and

sustainable heating• common regional training

programme

Phase III

• Modellling tool and data for the whole region is now available

• How to utilise this potential in the third project phase?

• Suggestions for further analyses– Develop a ”strategy scenario” with input from

each country in the region– Identify and evaluate concrete projects in

cooperation with stakeholders– Expand the scope to 2050

Phase III

• Input for- EU Baltic Sea Region strategy in parallel with

Baltic Energy Market and Interconnector Plan (BEMIP)

- Regional perspective on the National renewable energy Action Plans and national energy efficiency efforts

Input from BDF Summit

• The study could provide useful input for concretisation of EU Baltic Sea Strategy – climate, economy and security of supply

• We need concrete plans and actions – ”lighthouse projects”– Grids and wind power– Combined heat and power and energy efficiency– Training and education

• Incorporate national policies in the study (including nuclear) – develop a road map for the region

• Look at a portfolio of technology options, include a technological development, e.g. solar and wave

• Expand the scope to 2050 – explore ”truly” sustainable scenarios (no fossil fuels)