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The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. “Bear market” spurred by financial and inflation uncertainties indexes, Jan1 2008=100 . TOPIX. Dow Jones. CACI. MSI. Source: Thomson/Datastream. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The External Environment for Developing Countries
July 2008The World Bank
Development EconomicsProspects Group
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
“Bear market” spurred by financial and inflation uncertainties indexes, Jan1 2008=100
Dow Jones
MSI
TOPIX
CACI
U.S. inflation pipeline suggests further price hikes for consumer
Headline CPI, PPI- and Import price indexes, ch% 3mma y/y
0
3
5
8
10
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-080
5
10
15
20
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
PPI [left]
Import price [right]
CPI [left]
Industrial countries
Stimulus checks boost disposable incomes in May – but outlays rise less
disposable income and personal consumption, ch% saar
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
income personal consumption
retail sales
Consumer expectations at record lows... a threat to second-half growth
expectations for economy: percentage of survey responses, 3mma
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08
Source: Conference Board.
expectations “worse”
“better” minus “worse”
expectations “better”
Manufacturing losses had been spared worse outturns by overseas demand goods export volume and IP, ch% saar
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Source: Department of Commerce, Thomson/Datastream.
Export volume [R]
IP manufacturing [L]
Japan’s households retrench after strong spending in first quarter
retail sales volume and houshold expenditure, ch% 3mma y/y
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08
Source: Cabinet Office-- Thomson/Datastream.
HH expenditures
Retail sales
Japan’s export growth waning as import demand plummets
Export- and import volume growth, ch% saar
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08
Source: Japan Cabinet Office.
Exports
Imports
Fall of the yen and new orders growth sustain export hopes
USD per Yen index [right], and factory orders [left] ch% 3mma y/y
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-0895
100
105
110
115
120
Source: Japan Cabinet Office; Thomson/Datastream.
Dollar per Yen index [right]
Factory orders [left]
1.2
3.2 2.9
-2
0
2
4
Q4-2007 Q1-2008-P Q1-2008-F
Source: Eurostat and DECPG calculations.
Euro Area first-quarter GDP marked down on investment and net-X growth of real GDP, and contributions to
growth in percentage points
Change in StocksFixed Investment
GovernmentConsumptionNet exports
German exports drop sharply in May in step with export orders growth export volumes and overseas factory
orders, ch% 3mma
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08
Source: Bundesbank-- Thomson/Datastream.
Export volume
Export orders
HICP breaches 16-year highs illiciting ECB 25-bp rate hike
HICP ch% y/y and ECB policy rate (%)
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08
HICP
Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.
Industrial production
Other East Asia
Latin America and the Carribean
Industrial production growth across developing regions is slowing IP ch% saar: ECA, LAC [left]; Other East
Asia [right]
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08-10
0
10
20
30
40
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
Europe and Central Asia
China remains strong; output in the remainder of East Asia is lapsing
IP ch% saar
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
Other East Asia
China
Weaker manufacturing orders take a toll on German production
IP ch% saar: production [left], orders [right]
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
IP
Manufacturing orders*
* One month lag
International trade
G-3 exports slow into second quarter of 2008
export volumes, ch% saar
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007M1 2007M3 2007M5 2007M7 2007M9 2007M11 2008M1 2008M3 2008M5
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG calculations.
Japan
USA
Germany
Export market demand falling more quickly than anticipated
nominal imports, ch% saar
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2007M1 2007M3 2007M5 2007M7 2007M9 2007M11 2008M1 2008M3 2008M5
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG calculations.
Taiwan, China
Russia
East Asia
High-income
Brazil Non-OECD High-income
High-tech exporters see slowdown in outbound shipments
nominal exports, ch% saar
-25.0
-12.5
0.0
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
62.5
2007M1 2007M3 2007M5 2007M7 2007M9 2007M11 2008M1 2008M3
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG calculations.
Taiwan, China
Thailand
Malaysia
Hong Kong SAR China
Oil prices
Oil prices climb on low stocks and sluggish supply growth
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-082400
2500
2600
2700
2800
$/bbl million bbl
WB Oil price [L scale]
OECD stocks [R]
Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.
Tight distillate market bidding up prices for light crudes
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-06 Jan-07 Dec-07
$/bbl
Crude (WTI)
Gasoline
Distillate
Price differentials relative to crude
Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.
Open Interest Crude Oil NYMEX (‘000 lots)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160$/bblOpen interest
Source: NYMEX and DECPG Commodities Group.
Non-oil commodity prices
100125150175200225250275300325350
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
Grains
Fats & Oils
Other Food
Beverages
Continued gains in food prices(2000=100)
Source: DECPG Commodities Group.
Copper and aluminum remain firmwhile other metals prices drop
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000Cu/Al $/ton Ni $/ton
Nickel
Copper
Aluminum
Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06
Iron Ore Prices ($/mt)
Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.
International Finance
Bank lending leads flows in June
Source: DECPG Finance Team.
Gross capital flows to emerging markets
$ billion 2006
Total H1 H2 Total H1 Apr May Jun
Total 494 357 326 683 267 48 45 58 Bonds 137 107 39 146 58 13 12 19 Banks 246 164 180 343 165 22 24 36 Equity 111 86 107 194 44 13 8 3
Lat. America 116 69 88 157 54 14 12 9 Bonds 41 31 14 45 17 5 6 1E. Europe 179 156 96 252 104 15 16 35 Bonds 64 50 14 64 33 7 5 15Asia 153 110 113 213 90 16 13 11 Bonds 19 18 6 23 7 0 1 3Others 45 32 28 60 20 3 4 2
2007 2008
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08325
350
375
400
425
450
475
Source: Bloomberg.
Equity market downturn appears mirrored in commodity market gains
MSCI global equities (USD) [left]; Reuters/Jeffries CRN [right]
MSCI equity [left]
CRN commodities [right]
255
260
265
270
275
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08405
410
415
420
Source: JPMorgan-Chase and Morgan-Stanley.
Returns on high-yield assets suffer amid flight to quality
Developed market- high-yield bond index [left]; EMBIG [right]
EMBIG [right]
JPMorgan Developed HY [left]
Currencies
1.410
1.430
1.450
1.470
1.490
1.510
1.530
1.550
1.570
1.590
1.610
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
yen/USD
USD/Euro (inverse)
Dollar continues move-up on yen... step-down on euro at ECB rate hike USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per
USD [right]
Is oil being viewed as a dollar hedge? USD nominal effective rate [left], oil price
[right], index 2000=100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-00 Nov-00 Sep-01 Jul-02 May-03 Mar-04 Jan-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Jul-07 May-0850100150200250300350400450500
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG Commodities Group.
Oil price [right]
USD NEER [left]
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
Emerging market currencies show mixed movements against the dollar
LCU per USD indexes, Jan1 2008=100 [*increase = weaker LCU]
Turkish lira
Brazilian reis
Indonesian rupiah
Korean won
Philippine peso
FOCUSJuly 2008
Difficulties at Fannie and Freddie
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5/1/2008 6/1/2008 7/1/2008
Fannie Mae Freddie Mac
Share prices ($)
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
Fannie and Freddie share prices halve over the 2nd week of July
Freddie, 2.2 trillion
Fannie, 3.0 trillion
Others, 6.9 trillion
Source: OFHEO.
Mortgage portfolios and guarantees held by Fannie and Freddie
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08
Fannie Mae
CDS spreads of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
Basis points
Freddie Mac
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
Market tension eases post actions by Treasury and Federal Reserve
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
Treasury bonds Agency bonds Corp. bonds Corp. stocks
$ billion
Value of US LT securities held by foreign official institutions(As of June 30, 2007)
Source: U.S. Treasury.
Further difficulties could carry worldwide repercussions
The External Environment for Developing Countries
July 2008The World Bank
Development EconomicsProspects Group