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Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

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Page 1: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Beer Industry Update, 2008

Lester Jones, Beer InstituteJune, 2009

Page 2: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Beer Serves America

The Beer Serves America (BSA) study is the industry’s primary communication platform describing the breadth and economic contributions of the beer industry to the public and government .

Throughout the year, the Beer Institute, its members, and allied organizations use the Beer Serves America (BSA) message in communications to the media, government, special interest groups and the general public.

Page 3: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

BSA Study Summary The brewing industry is a dynamic part of the U.S. economy,

accounting for $198.2 billion in economic output or 1.5% of US GDP. Industry directly or indirectly employ almost 1.9 million

Americans Employees earn almost $62 billion in wages and benefits The industry and their employees pay $30.1 billion in

direct federal, state and local taxes In addition, the consumption of beer generates $3.7 billion

in federal excise taxes, 1.7 billion in state excise taxes and another $5.7 billion in sales and other related state taxes

The Hops Industry alone contributes over 2,500 jobs, $90 million in wages and almost $300 million in economic output to the US economy

Every state and virtually every community in the country contributes to the brewing industry in some way.

Page 4: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Beer’s Economic Contributions(2,083 Brewery, 2,869 Wholesalers and 521,725 Retailers)

United StatesUnited States JobsJobsContributions Contributions

(billions $)(billions $)

BreweryBrewery 42,947 42,947 $35.1$35.1

WholesaleWholesale 95,399 95,399 $16.0$16.0

RetailRetail 888,433 888,433 $35.0$35.0

Supplier ImpactSupplier Impact 441,319 441,319 $66.9$66.9

Induced ImpactInduced Impact 417,077 417,077 $45.2$45.2

Total Jobs/ContributionTotal Jobs/Contribution 1,885,1751,885,175 $198.2$198.2

Business and Personal TaxesBusiness and Personal Taxes $30.2$30.2

Consumption Taxes (excise, Consumption Taxes (excise, sales, others)sales, others) $11.2$11.2

Source: Beer Serves America, 2009

Page 5: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

5

Gallup Poll, 2009

Source: Gallup Poll, 2008: Source: Gallup Poll, 2008: Do you most often drink beer, wine, or liquorDo you most often drink beer, wine, or liquor? ?

40% Beer

34% Wine

Page 6: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Beer, still the largest segment2008 US Market2008 US Market BeerBeer WineWine SpiritsSpiritsTotal Sales Total Sales (million)(million) $99,345 $99,345 $27,215 $27,215 $61,120 $61,120

Total Volume Total Volume (million)(million) 6,6276,627 705705 441441

21+ Pop 2008 21+ Pop 2008 (million)(million) 218218 218218 218218

Per Capita SalesPer Capita Sales $456 $456 $125 $125 $280 $280 Per Capita Per Capita GallonsGallons 30.4 30.4 3.2 3.2 2.0 2.0

Per Capita Per Capita EthanolEthanol 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8

Source: Beer Institute and Adams Beverage Group, 2009

Page 7: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Total Total USUS

20072007

Retail Retail SalesSales

20082008

Retail Retail SalesSales

07-08 07-08 ChangChang

ee

BeerBeer $97.9$97.9 $99.3$99.3 1.4%1.4%

WineWine $27.9$27.9 $27.2$27.2 -2.5%-2.5%

SpiritsSpirits $61.6$61.6 $62.9$62.9 2.2%2.2%

TotalTotal $187.3$187.3 $189.5$189.5 1.1%1.1%

Adams Beverage Books, 2009

US Beer, Spirits and Wine, 2007 vs. 2008Retail Sales Trends (Billions $)

Page 8: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Index Per Capita Ethanol Consumption Beer Wine and Spirits 1970-2008

Assume 4.5% for beer, 14% for wine and 40% for spirits

Segment 1970 1998 2008 Beer 48%57% 52% Wine10% 15% 17%

Spirits 42% 28% 31%

Source: Beer Institute and The Beverage Information Group 2009

Share of Ethanol volume

Page 9: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Per Capita Consumption of Malt Beverages1980 to 2008 (gallons per person/total population)

Source: Beer Institute, 2009.

1. 21.8 in 2008 from a high of 24.6 in 1981

2. Changing Demographics

3. Increased alcohol beverage competition

4. Additional non-alcohol beverage choices

5. Policy Changes (21 LDA and .08)

Page 10: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

US Population 2008, Ages 21 to 75 Tail end of the baby boom Tail end of the baby boom

generation born between generation born between 1957 and 1964 - about 1957 and 1964 - about

32 million people or 32 million people or 16.2% of the LDA 16.2% of the LDA

populationpopulation

Beer demo (21-27) - about 29.4 Beer demo (21-27) - about 29.4 million people or 14.9% of million people or 14.9% of

LDA PopulationLDA Population

Difference of 2.5 Difference of 2.5 million consumers at million consumers at 20 gallons/year per 20 gallons/year per capita…equates to capita…equates to about 1.6 million about 1.6 million barrels less demand…barrels less demand…beer has weathered beer has weathered the storm with 28-34 the storm with 28-34 yr old age cohort yr old age cohort (13.9% of LDA).(13.9% of LDA).

Source: United States Census Bureau, 2009

Page 11: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

40.0 >

30.0 ≤ 34.9

Source: Beer Institute, 2009 (2006 Beer Institute Population Estimates)

≤ 29.9

35.0≤ 39.9

2008 est. Annual Per Cap Consumption Gallons per person 21+

Page 12: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009
Page 13: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009
Page 14: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009
Page 15: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

US Brewing Cost Index The Brewing cost index measures a select few

commodity input costs used by the US brewing industry Weighted average index accounts for agricultural,

energy and packaging inputs based on data collected through the Economic Census for the industry

Component Weight 07 vs. 08

PPI - Producer Price Index for Commodities

9.9%

Packaging (cans, bottles, boxes) 60% 3.6%

Agricultural (barley, rice, corn, wheat)

30% 26.1%

Energy (commercial electric and natural gas)

10% -3.0%

Brewing Cost Index 11.2%Source: Beer Institute and BLS PPI (Note: Hops are not measured in the PPI

commodity index)

Page 16: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

US PPI & US Brewing Cost Index

The commodity costs index measure only a select few inputs. The index does not include many other P&L items

such as marketing, administration, transportation and labor/benefit costs . The components of the brewing index demonstrate the energy and agricultural intensity of the

brewing process relative to the general economy.

Source: Beer Institute and BLS PPI (Note: Hops are not measured in the PPI commodity index)

Page 17: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Industry Supply and Shipments of Malt Beverages

Two measures: Supply and State Shipments

Supply = Domestic Tax Paid + Imports

Shipments = Sum of all beer shipped from brewers and importers to distributors by state

1 barrel = 31 gallons = 13.78 cases = 330/12 oz servings

Page 18: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

World and US Brewing Industry Based on 2007/2008 volumes estimates

Brewer World Share

USShare

ABI 26% 50%

MILLER/COORS 17% 30%

HEINEKEN 10% 4%

Top 3 Share 51% 81%

Total (barrels) 1.4 Billion

214 million

• Top 3 brewers now produce over 50% of world’s beer and 81% of US market

• The 70-80% share is the norm in most other developed countries as well.

18Source: Beer Institute, 2009.

Crown Imports now has 5.4% share of US market and Pabst 2.6% share

of US market

Page 19: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

2008 US Market Shares for Brewers (Based on shipments from brewers to wholesalers,2008)

Source: Beer Institute, 2009.

Page 20: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Segment

2007Volum

e

2008Volum

e2008Share

Volume

Change

Percent

Change

Domestic 182,687184,655 87% 1,968 1.1%

Imports 29,695 28,700 13% -995 -3.4%

Total Industry 212,382213,355 100% 973 0.5%

Total Malt Beverage Industry Supply2007 vs. 2008 (millions of barrels)

Source: Beer Institute, 2009

Total Industry added almost 1 million barrels of beer in 2008. That’s almost 13 million cases of additional beer passing from

brewers to distributors to retailers to help satisfy over 90 million beer consumers.

Page 21: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

US Package Mix (Bottles, Cans, Draft)2007 vs. 2008 (1,000s of barrels)

Package2007

Volume 2008

Volume 2008 Share

Volume Change

Percent Change

Bottles 88,486 87,085 40.9% -1,401 -1.6%

Cans 102,676 105,158 49.3% 2,482 2.4%

Draught 20,040 20,201 9.5% 161 0.8%

Plastics 683 692 0.3% 10 1.4%

Total 211,905 213,136 100.0% -995 0.6%

Cans and draught beer lead industry growth in 2008 as bottles pulled the industry down by -1.6%. Draught

continued to grow in 2008 reaching 9.5% share of market for over 5 billion 12 ounce servings.

Source: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Census and Beer Institute, 2009

Page 22: Beer Industry Update, 2008 Lester Jones, Beer Institute June, 2009

Thank You

Lester JonesBeer InstituteWashington, [email protected]