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FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES PLEASE SEE THE DISCLOSURE PAGES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT Notations: For further information on any of the topics mentioned, please contact your Financial Advisor. Unless specifically stated otherwise, comments contained in this document should not be construed as an investment opinion or recommendation of any securities mentioned. Charts depicted are from FactSet unless otherwise noted. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ © 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 11 Before the Bell Morning Market Brief February 18, 2021 MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY: Anthony M. Saglimbene, Global Market Strategist Quick Take: U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open; European markets are trading down; Asia ended lower overnight; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trading at $61.48; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 1.30%. Don't Fear Rising Rates — At Least For Now: Stocks took a rare pause yesterday and settled slightly lower, though the Dow Jones Industrials Average posted another new high. The S&P 500 Index is up +4.7% year-to- date on a price alone basis, while the Russell 2000 Index and NASDAQ Composite are higher by +14.2% and +8.4%, respectively. As Bespoke Investment Group recently noted, value stocks, as well as the highest dividend-yielding companies, are seeing some of the strongest performance trends in 2021. Based on Bespoke's decile performance matrix, stocks with the lowest share prices, smallest market-caps, lowest price-to-sales, lowest price-to-book, and highest percentage to international revenue are capturing higher levels of investor interest this year and, thus, a more significant share of returns. This speaks specifically to the +21.5% increase across Energy and the +8.9% gain this year in Financials. The increased interest across value and smaller market-cap size has been a strong tailwind for the Russell 2000 Index. At a more granular level, market participants are seeking out companies in industries with room for improving business conditions this year that could accelerate as more of the global economy recovers from the pandemic. On Tuesday, President Biden discussed the need for a significant fiscal stimulus package in a town hall and promised if Congress passed such legislation, the U.S. economy would come "roaring back." Biden's $1.9 trillion economic plan is currently moving through the budget reconciliation process. In our view, Democrats are very likely to pass a plan that looks similar in size and scope to Biden's outline. President Biden suggested he was willing to negotiate on the $15 an hour federal minimum wage and use a five-year phased-in approach to minimize business impacts. The House of Representatives is looking to pass the relief package by the end of the month. As FactSet highlighted, Democrats are looking to pass a stimulus bill through the House and Senate by mid-March and when the bulk of existing stimulus runs out. Stocks are higher in part on the prospects for added fiscal relief and what the added $1,400 proposed stimulus checks could mean for increased spending. On that note, January retail sales jumped +5.3% month-over-month and well ahead of the +1.0% gain expected and 1.0% decline recorded in December. $600 stimulus checks in December/January, high savings rates among consumers, increasing gas prices, and strong auto sales helped fuel spending last month. Importantly, breadth across the retail sales report was perfect, with all thirteen components posting month-over-month gains. The only other two times the report has surpassed expectations by four percentage points or higher since the late 1990s was in June (coming out of the lockdowns) and in November 2001 following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. According to Bespoke, January's retail sales report is only one of five times since 1992 that all thirteen components showed m/m sales increases. While mobility trends improved in January, other weekly economic indicators have been stubbornly flat-to- negative. Improving vaccination rates and a continued recovery in hard-hit employment/business areas should be additive to consumer spending trends in the coming months. Additional stimulus checks won't hurt, either. At the same time, improving economic dynamics has caused inflation expectations and U.S. Treasury yields to rise. As the FactSet chart below shows, 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are well off their March 2020 lows. In both instances, the yields at the start of the year on each bond proxy were less reflective of the

Before the Bell · 2/18/2021  · S&P 500 -0.03% 4.87% 3,931.3 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe) -0.24% 4.19% 3,691.1 Nikkei 225 (Japan) -0.19% 10.18% 30,236.1 Before The Bell February 18, 2021

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Page 1: Before the Bell · 2/18/2021  · S&P 500 -0.03% 4.87% 3,931.3 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe) -0.24% 4.19% 3,691.1 Nikkei 225 (Japan) -0.19% 10.18% 30,236.1 Before The Bell February 18, 2021

 

FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES PLEASE SEE THE DISCLOSURE PAGES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT Notations:

For further information on any of the topics mentioned, please contact your Financial Advisor. Unless specifically stated otherwise, comments contained in this document should not be construed as an investment opinion or

recommendation of any securities mentioned. Charts depicted are from FactSet unless otherwise noted. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ © 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.     Page 1 of 11  

Before the Bell Morning Market Brief

February 18, 2021

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY: Anthony M. Saglimbene, Global Market Strategist Quick Take: U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open; European markets are trading down; Asia ended lower

overnight; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trading at $61.48; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 1.30%.

Don't Fear Rising Rates — At Least For Now: Stocks took a rare pause yesterday and settled slightly lower, though the Dow Jones Industrials Average posted another new high. The S&P 500 Index is up +4.7% year-to-date on a price alone basis, while the Russell 2000 Index and NASDAQ Composite are higher by +14.2% and +8.4%, respectively. As Bespoke Investment Group recently noted, value stocks, as well as the highest dividend-yielding companies, are seeing some of the strongest performance trends in 2021.

Based on Bespoke's decile performance matrix, stocks with the lowest share prices, smallest market-caps, lowest price-to-sales, lowest price-to-book, and highest percentage to international revenue are capturing higher levels of investor interest this year and, thus, a more significant share of returns.

This speaks specifically to the +21.5% increase across Energy and the +8.9% gain this year in Financials. The increased interest across value and smaller market-cap size has been a strong tailwind for the Russell 2000 Index. At a more granular level, market participants are seeking out companies in industries with room for improving business conditions this year that could accelerate as more of the global economy recovers from the pandemic.

On Tuesday, President Biden discussed the need for a significant fiscal stimulus package in a town hall and promised if Congress passed such legislation, the U.S. economy would come "roaring back." Biden's $1.9 trillion economic plan is currently moving through the budget reconciliation process. In our view, Democrats are very likely to pass a plan that looks similar in size and scope to Biden's outline. President Biden suggested he was willing to negotiate on the $15 an hour federal minimum wage and use a five-year phased-in approach to minimize business impacts. The House of Representatives is looking to pass the relief package by the end of the month. As FactSet highlighted, Democrats are looking to pass a stimulus bill through the House and Senate by mid-March and when the bulk of existing stimulus runs out. Stocks are higher in part on the prospects for added fiscal relief and what the added $1,400 proposed stimulus checks could mean for increased spending.

On that note, January retail sales jumped +5.3% month-over-month and well ahead of the +1.0% gain expected and 1.0% decline recorded in December. $600 stimulus checks in December/January, high savings rates among consumers, increasing gas prices, and strong auto sales helped fuel spending last month. Importantly, breadth across the retail sales report was perfect, with all thirteen components posting month-over-month gains. The only other two times the report has surpassed expectations by four percentage points or higher since the late 1990s was in June (coming out of the lockdowns) and in November 2001 following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. According to Bespoke, January's retail sales report is only one of five times since 1992 that all thirteen components showed m/m sales increases.

While mobility trends improved in January, other weekly economic indicators have been stubbornly flat-to-negative. Improving vaccination rates and a continued recovery in hard-hit employment/business areas should be additive to consumer spending trends in the coming months. Additional stimulus checks won't hurt, either.

At the same time, improving economic dynamics has caused inflation expectations and U.S. Treasury yields to rise. As the FactSet chart below shows, 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are well off their March 2020 lows. In both instances, the yields at the start of the year on each bond proxy were less reflective of the

Page 2: Before the Bell · 2/18/2021  · S&P 500 -0.03% 4.87% 3,931.3 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe) -0.24% 4.19% 3,691.1 Nikkei 225 (Japan) -0.19% 10.18% 30,236.1 Before The Bell February 18, 2021

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likely path for growth and inflation this year. As the chart also highlights, the S&P 500's dividend yield has fallen from 2.8% in March 2020 to 1.5% currently. At some point, more conservative investors may choose to put the next marginal dollar to work in more conservative investments, such as bonds, if rates continue to rise. At what level is up for debate. Market pundits have highlighted a 10-year at 1.5%, 1.75%, or north of 2.0% as pressure points for equities. In our view, equity prices may see more difficulty with rising rates if the "pace" of change quickens unexpectedly. Rates are low, should remain relatively low this year, and are rising for the right reasons. Overall, this is positive for stocks, in our view.  

 

We can imagine a time in the not-so-distant future where headlines increasingly focus on rising yields, rising inflation, and their influence on other assets, such as stocks. While it's premature to spend too much time fretting over the negative possibilities, we would stress the following:

Stocks tend to perform well when interest rates and inflation levels rise modestly and based on growing demand across the economy. Outside of easy year-over-year comparisons in the front half, we believe potentially higher inflation levels in 2021 are likely an improving demand story. That's positive for stocks, in our view.

Notably, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to prematurely choke off the recovery this year due to rising inflation. The central bank has been very clear it will let inflation run hotter and allow employment to fully recover — possibly back to sub 4% unemployment levels before starting to tighten policy. January's Fed meeting minutes confirmed as much. We believe most stock investors worry about rising inflation within the context of what it implies for central bank action. Here, higher levels of inflation are unlikely to lead to tighter monetary policies this year. Again, a positive for stocks, in our view.

Lastly, there is no "free lunch" when it comes to investing. We believe massive amounts of liquidity and easy fiscal/monetary conditions, to some extent, are driving "risk-on" behavior and pushing asset prices higher. When the music finally stops and the alarm bell sounds easy monetary conditions are unlikely to continue — that's typically when risk assets have a more challenging time. In our view, when the Fed starts to hint, or better yet when the market anticipates the central bank will begin to taper its asset purchases, that is most likely the early warning that policy will be less accommodative in the future. However, the degree/magnitude of reaction across stock prices may depend on how high prices run to that point, as well as the underlying strength in the economy at the time policy starts to shift. But these are discussions for another day and unlikely to be an immediate threat for this year. Investors are best served by remaining constructive on stocks, following a well-diversified plan, and somewhat discounting the noise regarding modest increases in yields and inflation this year.

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Asia-Pacific: Asian equities finished lower on Thursday. All markets are back online following the Lunar New Year holidays. South Korea and Hong Kong fell sharply as stretched valuations and lackluster trading across the region carried the day's price action. In China, press reports discussed the bullish expectations for Chinese equities in the new year amid a global economic recovery and loose monetary policies. Signs of strong holiday consumer spending in China also helped shape the positive narrative for stocks.

Tech giant Facebook banned Australian users and publishers from sharing or viewing news content on its platform yesterday. The move comes ahead of a new Australian law that will soon go into effect, forcing tech giants to pay for news content. Alphabet has reached a three-year licensing deal with News Corp to share/publish news on Google News Showcase in the wake of the change.

Europe: Markets across the region are trading lower at midday. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi received a 262-40 vote of confidence in Italy's Senate on Wednesday. Another confidence vote will take place in the lower house today. It is expected Mr. Draghi will also receive broad support from the lower chamber. In his first speech as Prime Minister on Wednesday, Draghi outlined an ambitious program that utilizes funding from the European Union and highlighted needed reforms. A plan to tackle reforms is a key "mandatory" requirement to access the EU's rescue funding.

On that point, Europe's Recovery and Resilience facility comes into focus today. EU governments can begin putting forward their plans on Thursday on how they will use the facility, which consists of €312.5 billion of grants and €360 billion of low-interest loans over six years. 27 European Union countries can access the funds to help their economies recover from the pandemic.

U.S.: Equity futures are pointing to a weaker open. Here is a quick news rundown to start your morning: Weather disruptions are causing headaches for some states. Texas is currently under a disaster

declaration, which has caused the state to clamp down on the flow of natural gas across state lines to ensure its power generators have ample supply as blackouts continue. On Wednesday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott said 19,800 megawatts of gas-fired power generation remained offline in Texas. The northeast and Mid-Atlantic are expected to be hammered with snow and ice today, while the cold lingers in the central part of the U.S.

The GameStop saga heads to Capitol Hill. Heads of Robinhood, Citadel, and Melvin Capital, as well as Keith Gill (a Reddit user known as "Roaring Kitty"), are expected to testify before the House Financial Services Committee today about their roles in the GameStop short squeeze. According to Bloomberg, all are expected to provide a unified message dispelling the conspiracy theories that some or all worked together to harm retail investors.

Semiconductor shortage update: Extreme weather in Texas is exacerbating the global chip shortage, as some chip makers in the state have all been forced to shut down manufacturing due to power outages, per the Wall Street Journal. The Biden Administration has reached out to the Taiwanese government to help resolve the chip shortage. According to Reuters, Taiwan's Economic Minister said its firms (including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) are working hard to resolve the chip shortage, particularly for autos. However, the minister stressed the issue is a longer-term problem that needs to be addressed more broadly.

   

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WORLD CAPITAL MARKETS 2/18/2021 As of: 8:30 AM ET

Americas % chg. % YTD Value Europe (Intra-day) % chg. %YTD Value Asia/Pacific (Last Night) % chg. %YTD ValueS&P 500 -0.03% 4.87% 3,931.3 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe) -0.24% 4.19% 3,691.1 Nikkei 225 (Japan) -0.19% 10.18% 30,236.1 Dow Jones 0.29% 3.55% 31,613.0 FTSE 100 (U.K.) -0.89% 3.18% 6,651.0 Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -1.58% 12.35% 30,595.3 NASDAQ Composite -0.58% 8.46% 13,965.5 DAX Index (Germany) 0.04% 1.43% 13,915.1 Korea Kospi 100 -1.50% 7.42% 3,086.7 Russell 2000 -0.74% 14.33% 2,256.1 CAC 40 (France) -0.36% 3.64% 5,745.0 Singapore STI -0.40% 2.47% 2,908.9 Brazil Bovespa 0.19% 1.32% 120,586 FTSE MIB (Italy) -0.69% 3.53% 23,018.6 Shanghai Comp. (China) 0.55% 5.82% 3,675.4 S&P/TSX Comp. (Canada) -0.64% 5.74% 18,374.8 IBEX 35 (Spain) -0.35% 0.57% 8,094.4 Bombay Sensex (India) -0.73% 7.56% 51,324.7 Mexico IPC 0.81% 2.29% 45,062.0 MOEX Index (Russia) -0.44% 4.17% 3,421.7 S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) 0.01% 4.87% 6,885.9

Global % chg. % YTD Value Developed International % chg. %YTD Value Emerging International % chg. %YTD ValueMSCI All-Country World Idx -0.34% 5.81% 682.7 MSCI EAFE -1.03% 4.14% 2,233.6 MSCI Emerging Mkts 0.19% 11.95% 1,444.9

Note: International market returns shown on a local currency basis. The equity index data shown above is on a total return basis, inclusive of div idends.

S&P 500 Sectors % chg. % YTD Value Commodities Communication Services 0.48% 8.25% 239.7 Equity Income Indices % chg. % YTD Value Futures & Spot (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD ValueConsumer Discretionary 0.65% 5.34% 1,371.4 JPM Alerian MLP Index -0.24% 11.87% 155.2 CRB Raw Industrials 0.16% 7.47% 548.88 Consumer Staples 0.39% -2.61% 676.7 FTSE NAREIT Comp. TR -0.10% 3.80% 21,028.5 NYMEX WTI Crude (p/bbl.) 0.64% 26.81% 61.53 Energy 1.45% 22.77% 347.6 DJ US Select Dividend 0.38% 8.74% 2,376.9 ICE Brent Crude (p/bbl.) 0.61% 24.96% 64.73 Financials 0.36% 9.20% 534.1 DJ Global Select Dividend -0.30% 8.17% 233.8 NYMEX Nat Gas (mmBtu) -0.68% 25.92% 3.20 Health Care 0.36% 2.66% 1,356.8 S&P Div. Aristocrats 0.10% 2.12% 3,404.5 Spot Gold (troy oz.) 0.46% -6.01% 1,784.23 Industrials -0.31% 1.52% 760.0 Spot Silver (troy oz.) -0.46% 3.23% 27.26

Materials -0.13% 2.21% 465.6 LME Copper (per ton) -0.25% 8.44% 8,403.25 Real Estate 0.08% 3.86% 236.5 Bond Indices % chg. % YTD Value LME Aluminum (per ton) 1.19% 6.48% 2,101.55 Technology -1.03% 5.02% 2,402.2 Barclays US Agg. Bond 0.15% -1.47% 2,356.8 CBOT Corn (cents p/bushel) -0.18% 13.76% 549.75 Utilities 0.12% -1.13% 314.1 Barclays HY Bond -0.02% 1.34% 2,369.3 CBOT Wheat (cents p/bushel) 0.77% 2.11% 652.75

Foreign Exchange (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD ValueEuro (€/$) 0.39% -1.07% 1.21 Japanese Yen ($/¥) 0.18% -2.30% 105.68 Canadian Dollar ($/C$) 0.21% 0.39% 1.27British Pound (£/$) 0.79% 2.17% 1.40 Australian Dollar (A$/$) 0.39% 1.13% 0.78 Swiss Franc ($/CHF) 0.30% -1.23% 0.90Data/Price Source: Bloomberg. Equity Index data is total return, inclusive of dividends, where applicable.

Page 5: Before the Bell · 2/18/2021  · S&P 500 -0.03% 4.87% 3,931.3 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe) -0.24% 4.19% 3,691.1 Nikkei 225 (Japan) -0.19% 10.18% 30,236.1 Before The Bell February 18, 2021

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BY THE NUMBERS: ECONOMIC ACTUALS AND FORECAST:  

   ECONOMIC NEWS OUT TODAY: Economic Releases for Thursday, February 17, 2021. All times Eastern. Consensus estimates via Bloomberg. Time Period Release Consensus Est. Actual Prior Revised to 8:30 AM Feb. 13 Initial Jobless Claims 770k 861k 793k 848k 8:30 AM Feb. 6 Continuing Claims 4400k 4494k 4545k 4558k 8:30 AM JAN Housing Starts (annualized) 1660k 1580k 1669k 1680k 8:30 AM JAN Housing Starts (m/m) -0.5% -6.0% +5.8% +3.1% 8:30 AM JAN Building Permits (annualized) 1679k 1881k 1709k 8:30 AM JAN Building Permits (m/m) -1.5% +10.4% +4.5% 8:30 AM FEB Philly Fed. Mfg. Index 20.0 23.1 26.5 8:30 AM JAN Import Price Index (MoM) +1.0% +1.4% +0.9% 8:30 AM JAN Import Price Index (YoY) +0.4% +0.9% -0.3% Economic Perspective: Russell T. Price, CFA – Chief Economist A lot of moving parts to the economic data today as unemployment claims jump, housing starts are considerably

weaker than expected, we see another sign of building inflation pressure, yet manufacturing activity remains a bright spot. Overall, we believe the broader picture on new claims and housing starts remain positive, while the near-term path for manufacturing activity may become more challenged due to ongoing parts shortages in the autos sector.

New unemployment claims jumped higher last week and the prior week’s results were revised higher as well. The trend rate for new claims remains very high but it is also being somewhat artificially elevated repeat registrations -especially since the federal stimulus legislation enacted at year-end instituted a new round of enhanced unemployment benefits. Previously, the number of people re-registering for unemployment benefits for whatever reason was not available. However, earlier this week, a new report from the University of Chicago and the JPMorgan Institute found that nearly two thirds of the people signing up for benefits in the month of October ad also signed up previously (but since the pandemic began). In most cases it was because people were temporarily called back to work but then laid-off once again.

New housing starts, meanwhile, fell by 6% in January after jumping 8.2% in December. New activity was expected to stabilize at prior levels. New starts can be very volatile from month-to-month and material revisions to prior month data are common – as was the case today. Activity is also very often affected by weather, and we believe that will likely be a considerable factor in the results for February when published.

Going forward, new housing starts can be very volatile from month-to-month as they can be impacted by weather events and other temporary factors. This aside, we believe demand for new housing units (which includes single-

Current Projections:Actual Actual Actual Est. Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Est.2018 2019 2020 2021 Q4-2019 Q1-2020 Q2-2020 Q3-2020 Q4-2020 Q1-2021 Q2-2021

Real GDP (YOY) 3.0% 2.2% -3.5% 4.0% 2.1% -5.0% -31.4% 33.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.8%

Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.5% 6.7% 5.0% 3.5% 4.4% 11.1% 7.9% 6.7% 6.5% 5.8%

CPI (YoY) 2.4% 1.8% 1.3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 0.4% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% 3.2%

Core PCE (YoY) 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 2.5%

Sources: Historical data via FactSet. Estimates (Est.) via American Enterprise Investment Services Inc.

YoY = Year-over-year, Unemployment numbers are period ending. GDP: Gross Domestic Product; CPI: Consumer Price Index

All estimates other than GDP are period ending.

PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Core excludes food and energy.

Full-year Quarterly

Last Updated: January 28, 2021

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family homes, apartments and everything in between) will likely remain strong over the next few years, even as mortgage rates creep higher off of recent lows. Simply put, the U.S. housing market is short on supply. Since the housing bubble, new building activity has lagged simple population derived demand and there remains considerable headroom for builders to further grow their activities on the supply side without risking oversupply as occurred when the housing bubble burst in 2008.

Prior to the pandemic, new building activity had finally reached levels generally matching the rate of household formation. It its simplest terms, new household formation represents the number of housing units required by demographic factors such as population growth and other factors. HH formation had dropped as low as less than 500k per year during and just after the Great Recession (2008 to mid-2009) as families cohabitated (e.g., young people living at home for longer) but a natural long-term average is likely around 1.3 million per year, in our view.

The chart at right HAS been updated to reflect today’s release and is sourced from FactSet.  

FIXED INCOME NEWS & VIEWS: Brian M. Erickson, CFA, Fixed Income Research & Strategy Long-term Reflation; Short-term Yields Could Temporarily Dip Negative Tuesday, we discussed the propensity for long-term Treasury yields to move somewhat higher. This morning we focus

on the short-end of the Treasury curve, contemplating dynamics that could lead short Treasury yields to temporarily dip negative over the next four to five months. We believe the key driver could be changing liquidity – not the removal of liquidity, but the addition of yet another wave.

The U.S. Treasury holds $1.6 trillion of operating cash, well above its estimated $800 billion need at the end of March. Further, the latest Treasury refunding estimate suggests a balance of $500 billion by the end of June, leaving Treasury with an excess $1 trillion of cash. Should the U.S. Treasury use the excess operating cash rather than additional borrowing to meet Congressional spend needs, the added liquidity would shift from the Treasury to consumers and businesses without the matching Treasury issuance to absorb the surge. The wave of liquidity would look for a temporary outlet lifting short-term Treasury prices along with other asset prices.

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The result would be a boost to money supply, which already experienced an influx from Congress and the Fed’s efforts

that began in the first half of last year (see M2 Money Supply chart below).

The debt ceiling, if not resolved quickly, requires Treasury’s cash balance decline to less than $200 billion in July. Prospects of a contentious increase in the debt ceiling given Democrat control of Congress and the White House seems unlikely to result. Our base case would be that Congress includes a debt ceiling increase and extension in with upcoming legislation on infrastructure this spring, averting a deeper spend-down of Treasury’s operating cash.

Conclusion: Over the next few months, short-term Treasury yields may settle lower, even reaching into negative territory, while the Fed’s overnight fed funds rate remains in the 0.00 to 0.25% target range. Thus, the curve could evolve to offer a positive overnight rate and then dip to negative yields on the short-end while markets absorb the added liquidity. While this may have little impact from a total return perspective, the Fed may find it more difficult to implement policy and negative yields could increase risks for the global bond market plumbing, similar to challenges arising from an unreliable Libor rate (see our report Floating Rates: Exit LIBOR - Enter SOFR dated 12/4/20). We believe the challenges are visible and addressable. Yet, so was the cash squeeze that led repo rates sharply higher in September 2019.

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Ameriprise Investment Research Group Ameriprise Financial 1441 West Long Lake Road, Suite 250, Troy, MI 48098 [email protected] For additional information or to locate your nearest branch office, visit ameriprise.com RESEARCH & DUE DILIGENCE LEADER

Lyle B. Schonberger - Vice President Business Unit Compliance Liaison (BUCL) Jeff Carlson, CLU, ChFC – Sr. Manager Investment Research Coordinator Kimberly K. Shores Sr. Administrative Assistant Jillian Willis STRATEGISTS Chief Market Strategist David M. Joy – Vice President Global Market Strategist Anthony M. Saglimbene – Vice President

Thomas Crandall, CFA, CMT, CAIA – Sr. Director, Asset Allocation Cedric Buermann Jr., CFA – Analyst – Quantitative, Asset Allocation

Gaurav Sawhney – Research Analyst

Amit Tiwari – Sr. Research Associate Chief Economist Russell T. Price, CFA – Vice President Retirement Research Jay C. Untiedt, CFA, CAIA, RICP – Vice President EQUITY RESEARCH Equity Research Director Justin H. Burgin – Vice President

Consumer Goods and Services Patrick S. Diedrickson, CFA – Director

Energy/Utilities William Foley, ASIP – Director

Financial Services/REITs Lori Wilking-Przekop – Sr Director

Health Care Daniel Garofalo – Director

Industrials/Materials Frederick M. Schultz – Director

Technology/Telecommunication Open

MANAGER RESEARCH

Michael V. Jastrow, CFA – Vice President

Mark Phelps, CFA – Director – Multi-Asset Solutions ETFs, CEFs, UITs Jeffrey R. Lindell, CFA – Director

James P. Johnson, CFA, CFP® – Sr Analyst Alternatives Justin E. Bell, CFA – Vice President – Head of Quantitative Research and Alternatives

Kay S. Nachampassak – Director - Alternatives Quantitative Research Kurt J. Merkle, CFA, CFP®, CAIA – Sr Director

Peter W. LaFontaine – Sr Analyst

David Hauge, CFA – Analyst

Blake Hockert – Sr Associate

Bishnu Dhar – Sr Research Analyst

Parveen Vedi – Sr Research Associate

Darakshan Ali – Research Process Trainee Equities Christine A. Pederson, CAIA, CIMA – Sr Director – Growth Equity, Infrastructure & REIT

Benjamin L. Becker, CFA – Director – International/Global Equity

Cynthia Tupy, CFA – Director – Value and Equity Income Equity

Alex Zachman, CFA – Analyst – Core Equity Fixed Income Steven T. Pope, CFA, CFP® – Sr Director – Non-Core Fixed Income

Douglas D. Noah, CFA – Sr Analyst – Core Taxable & Tax-Exempt Fixed Income

FIXED INCOME RESEARCH & STRATEGY

Fixed Income Research Brian M. Erickson, CFA – Vice President High Yield and Investment Grade Credit Jon Kyle Cartwright – Sr. Director

Stephen Tufo – Director

RETIREMENT RESEARCH

Jay C. Untiedt, CFA, CAIA, RICP – Vice President

Nidhi Khandelwal – Director

Matt Morgan – Sr. Manager

 

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The content in this report is authored by American Enterprise Investment Services Inc. (“AEIS”) and distributed by Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC (“AFS”) to financial advisors and clients of AFS. AEIS and AFS are affiliates and subsidiaries of Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Both AEIS and AFS are member firms registered with FINRA and are subject to the objectivity safeguards and disclosure requirements relating to research analysts and the publication and distribution of research reports. The “Important Disclosures” below relate to the AEIS research analyst(s) that prepared this publication. The “Disclosures of Possible Conflicts of Interest” section, where applicable, relates to the conflicts of interest of each of AEIS and AFS, their affiliates and their research analysts, as applicable, with respect to the subject companies mentioned in the report. Each of AEIS and AFS have implemented policies and procedures reasonably designed to ensure that its employees involved in the preparation, content and distribution of research reports, including dually registered employees, do not influence the objectivity or timing of the publication of research report content. All research policies, coverage decisions, compensation, hiring and other personnel decisions with respect to research analysts are made by AEIS, which is operationally independent of AFS. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES As of December 31, 2020 The views expressed regarding the company(ies) and sector(s) featured in this publication reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) authoring the publication. Further, no part of research analyst compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this publication. A part of a research analyst’s compensation may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading are components. No part of a research analyst’s compensation is based on a specific investment banking transaction, nor is it based on sales, trading, or principal trading. A research analyst may have visited the material operations of one or more of the subject companies mentioned in this research report. No payment was received for the related travel costs. Additional information and current research disclosures on individual companies mentioned in this research report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. You may also submit a written request to Ameriprise Financial, Inc., 1441 West Long Lake Road, Troy MI, 48098. Independent third-party research on individual companies is available to clients at ameriprise.com/research-market-insights. SEC filings may be viewed at sec.gov. Tactical asset class recommendations mentioned in this report reflect The Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee’s general view of the financial markets, as of the date of the report, based on then current conditions. Our tactical recommendations may differ materially from what is presented in a customized long-term financial plan or portfolio strategy. You should view our recommendations in conjunction with a broader long-term portfolio strategy. Not all products, services, or asset classes mentioned in this report may be available for sale at Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Please consult with your financial advisor. Diversification and Asset Allocation do not assure a profit or protect against loss. RISK FACTORS Dividend and interest payments are not guaranteed. The amount of dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce or eliminate dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer. Should a company be unable to pay interest

on a timely basis a default may occur and interruption or reduction of interest and principal occur. Investments in a narrowly focused sector may exhibit higher volatility than investments with broader objectives and is subject to market risk and economic risk. Income Risk: We note that dividends are declared solely at the discretion of the companies’ boards of directors. Dividend cuts or eliminations will likely negatively impact underlying company valuations. Published dividend yields are calculated before fees and taxes. Dividends paid by foreign companies to ADR holders may be subject to a withholding tax which could adversely affect the realized dividend yield. In certain circumstances, investors in ADR shares have the option to receive dividends in the form of cash payments, rights shares or ADR shares. Each form of dividend payment will have different tax consequences and therefore generate a different yield. In some instances, ADR holders are eligible to reclaim a portion of the withholding tax. International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets. Market Risk: Equity markets in general could sustain significant volatility due to several factors. As we have seen recently, both economic and geopolitical issues could have a material impact on this model portfolio and the equity market as a whole. Quantitative Strategy Risk: Stock selection and portfolio maintenance strategies based on quantitative analytics carry a unique set of risks. Quantitative strategies rely on comprehensive, accurate and thorough historical data. The Ameriprise Investment Research Group utilizes current and historical data provided by third-party data vendors. Material errors in database construction and maintenance could have an adverse effect on quantitative research and the resulting stock selection strategies. PRODUCT RISK DISCLOSURES Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. For additional information on individual ETFs, see available third-party research which provides additional investment highlights. SEC filings may be viewed at sec.gov

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All fixed income securities are subject to a series of risks which may include, but are not limited to: interest rate risk, call risk, refunding risk, default risk, inflations risk, liquidity risk and event risk. Please review these risks with your financial advisor to better understand how these risks may affect your investment choices. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities. This means you may lose money if you sell a bond prior to maturity as a result of interest rate or other market movement. Any information relating to the income or capital gains tax treatment of financial instruments or strategies discussed herein is not intended to provide specific tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. A real estate investment trust or REIT is a company that owns and operates income-producing real estate. In addition, some REITs participate in the financing of real estate. To qualify as a REIT, a company must: I) invest at least 75% of its total assets in real estate assets, II) generate at least 75% of its gross income from real property or interest, and III) pay at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in the form of distributions. A company that qualifies as a REIT is permitted to deduct the distributions paid to shareholders from its corporate taxes. Consequently, many REITs target to payout at least 100% of taxable income, resulting in virtually no corporate taxes. An investment in a REIT is subject to many of the same risks as a direct investment in real estate including, but not limited to: Illiquidity and valuation complexities, redemption restrictions, distribution and diversification limits, tax consequences, fees, defaults by borrowers or tenants, market saturation, balloon payments, refinancing, bankruptcy, decreases in market rates for rents and other economic, political, or regulatory occurrences affecting the real estate industry. Ratings are provided by Moody’s Investors Services and Standard & Poor’s. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as "high-yield" or "junk" bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue. Securities offered through AFSI may not be suitable for all investors. Consult with your financial advisor for more information regarding the suitability of a particular investment. For further information on fixed income securities please refer to FINRA’s Smart Bond Investing at FINRA.org, MSRB’s Electronic Municipal Market Access at emma.msrb.org, or Investing in Bonds at investinginbonds.com. Alternative investments cover a broad range of strategies and structures designed to be low or non-correlated to traditional equity and fixed-income markets with a long-term expectation of illiquidity. Alternative investments involve substantial risks

and are more volatile than traditional investments, making them more suitable for investors with an above-average tolerance for risk. Growth securities, at times, may not perform as well as value securities or the stock market in general and may be out of favor with investors. Value securities may be unprofitable if the market fails to recognize their intrinsic worth or the portfolio manager misgauged that worth. DEFINITIONS OF TERMS Agency – Agency bonds are issued by Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE), but are NOT direct obligations of the U.S. government. Common GSE’s are the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. (Freddie Mac) Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB). Beta: A measure of the risk arising from exposure to general market movements as opposed to company-specific factors. Betas in this report, unless otherwise noted, use the S&P 500 as the market benchmark and result from calculations over historic periods. A beta below 1.0, for example, can suggest the equity has tended to move with lower volatility than the broader market or, due to company-specific factors, has had higher volatility but generally low correlations with the overall market. Corporate Bonds – Are debt instruments issued by a private corporation. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as “high-yield” or “junk” bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue. Mortgage Backed Securities – Bonds are subject to prepayment risk. Yield and average lives shown consider prepayment assumptions that may not be met. Changes in payments may significantly affect yield and average life. Please contact your financial advisor for information on CMOs and how they react to different market conditions. Municipal Bonds – Interest income may be subject to state and/or local income taxes and/or the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Municipal securities subject to AMT assume a “nontaxable” status for yield calculations. Certain municipal bond income may be subject to federal income tax and are identified as “taxable”. Gains on sales/redemptions of municipal bonds may be taxed as capital gains. If the bonds are insured, the insurance pertains to the timely payment of principal (at maturity) and interest by the insurer of the underlying securities and not to the price of the bond, which will fluctuate prior to maturity. The guarantees are backed by the claims-paying ability of the listed insurance company. Treasury Securities – There is no guarantee as to the market value of these securities if they are sold prior to maturity or redemption. Price/Book: A financial ratio used to compare a company’s market share price, as of a certain date, to its book value per

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share. Book value relates to the accounting value of assets and liabilities in a company’s balance sheet. It is generally not a direct reflection of future earnings prospects or hard to value intangibles, such as brand, that could help generate those earnings. Price/Earnings: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by earnings per share. Trailing P/E uses the share price divided by the past four-quarters’ earnings per share. Forward P/E uses the share price as of a certain date divided by the consensus estimate of the future four-quarters’ EPS. Price/Sales: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by the company’s sales per share over the most recent year. INDEX DEFINITIONS An index is a statistical composite that is not managed. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Definitions of individual indices mentioned in this report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. DISCLAIMER SECTION Except for the historical information contained herein, certain matters in this report are forward-looking statements or projections that are dependent upon certain risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to, such factors and considerations as general market volatility, global economic and geopolitical impacts, fiscal and monetary policy, liquidity, the level of interest rates, historical sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle, consumer preferences, foreign currency exchange rates, litigation risk, competitive positioning, the ability to successfully integrate acquisitions, the ability to develop and commercialize new products and services, legislative risks, the pricing environment for products and services, and compliance with various local, state, and federal health care laws. See latest third-party research reports and updates for risks pertaining to a particular security. This summary is based upon financial information and statistical data obtained from sources deemed reliable, but in no way is warranted by Ameriprise Financial, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. This is not a solicitation by Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC of any order to buy or sell securities. This summary is based exclusively on an analysis of general current market conditions, rather than the appropriateness of a specific proposed securities transaction. We will not advise you as to any change in figures or our views. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment products are not federally or FDIC-insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value.

Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC and its affiliates do not offer tax or legal advice. Consumers should consult with their tax advisor or attorney regarding their specific situation. Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Member FINRA and SIPC.