Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Before the Bell – The Shift in SMB Advertising Spending
September 12, 2013
Mark R. Fratrik, Ph. D. - VP, Chief Economist Steve Passwaiter - VP, Business Development
BIA/Kelsey
1 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Introduction & Agenda
Welcome, and thank you for joining us Move Towards Digital Media Ad View Plus Overview Local Businesses Spending
− Legal Services − Real Estate − Automobile Dealers − Retail − Landscaping Services
Online Spending Patterns Questions
MARK FRATRIK VP & Chief Economist, BIA/Kelsey
STEVE PASSWAITER VP Business Development, BIA/Kelsey
2 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
The Big Picture – Local Media Advertising
BIA/Kelsey defines the local media advertising marketplace as those media that provide local audiences to all types of advertisers
We expect the total local media advertising in 2013 it to be $132.7 billion, only a slight increase from the 2012 level of $132.5 billion (+0.2%)
The total local media advertising revenue growth is not keeping pace with the overall economy
The overall local media market will grow moderately through 2017 (at a 2.3% compound annual growth rate) By 2017, the total will be $148.8 billion
Growth in online/interactive/digital advertising revenues will remain strong, CAGR of 12.3% and CAGR of -0.3% for traditional advertising revenues
By 2017 local online/interactive/digital advertising revenues will be $41.1 billion
3 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Local Media Five-Year Forecast
$132.5 $132.7
$136.6
$139.5
$145.2
$148.8
$120
$125
$130
$135
$140
$145
$150
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US
$ B
illion
s
Source: BIA/Kelsey’s U.S. Local Media Forecast (2012-2017) Note: Numbers are rounded.
4 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Local Ad Market Currently Dominated by Traditional Media
Newspapers 16.1%
Direct Mail 27.2%
TV 14.9%
Radio 11.5%
Yellow Pages 5.1%
OOH 5.8%
Cable 5.4%
Magazine 2.4%
Online / Interactive 8.6%
*ERPM 1.4% Mobile
1.7%
2013 U.S. Local Media Revenues — $132.7 Billion
*ERPM = Email, Reputation and Presence Management
Digital revenues associated with traditional media (e.g., websites associated with local TV stations, local radio stations, newspapers and magazines) are included in the revenues for the traditional media. Revenues for Internet Yellow Pages that are associated with print Yellow Pages are included in the overall Yellow Pages media category.
5 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Steady Shift Toward Digital Media
82.6% 80.6% 78.7% 76.3% 74.5% 72.4%
17.4% 19.4% 21.3% 23.7% 25.5% 27.6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Traditional Online/Digital
2012-2017 CAGRs:
Total Media CAGR 2.3%
Traditional
Media CAGR -0.3%
Online/Digital Media
CAGR 12.3%
6 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Local Ad Market Less Dominated by Traditional Media in 2017
Newspapers 11.9%
Direct Mail 25.0%
TV 15.2% Radio
11.5% Yellow Pages
3.7%
OOH 6.0%
Cable 6.0%
Magazine 2.0%
Online / Interactive 10.6%
*ERPM 2.0%
Mobile 6.1%
2017 U.S. Local Media Revenues — $148.8 Billion
*ERPM = Email, Reputation and Presence Management
Digital revenues associated with traditional media (e.g., websites associated with local TV stations, local radio stations, newspapers and magazines) are included in the revenues for the traditional media. Revenues for Internet Yellow Pages that are associated with print Yellow Pages are included in the overall Yellow Pages media category.
7 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
How Can You Track the Flow of SMB Dollars?
8 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
What’s Going on in Local Markets?
Media Ad View Plus − Offers granular view of
$132 billion local media industry
− Provides a local and a nationwide comparative forecast
− Allows for evaluation of opportunities across multiple dimensions: − Local Ad Markets − Media and Ad Categories − Business Categories
2013 Forecast Highlights… let’s review
9 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Top Business Categories - Nationwide
Overall Advertiser Categories: − Retail: $25.0 billion − Automotive: $15.1 billion − General Services: $14.2 billion
Business Advertiser Categories:
− Automobile Dealers & Automotive Mnftrs. $12.5 billion − Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters $ 5.7 billion − Wireless Telecommunications $ 4.9 billion
BIA/Kelsey’ Media Ad View Plus Forecast, 2013
10 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Media Capturing Business Ad Dollars
Direct Mail dominates ad spend by local retail advertising, garnering over 43% of total retail advertising in 2013
Print Yellow Pages dominate the local General Services advertising category, generating almost $3.2 billion from this vertical in 2013
Local Radio advertising is diverse, generating over 10% of its advertising from five different verticals: Retail (18%), Financial/Insurance (17%), Restaurants (14.5%), Automotive (14%) and Technology (10%)
Despite declines in Newspaper circulation, local advertising on Newspaper was $21.3 billion in 2013, representing 16.1% of total advertising and second only to Direct Mail
Television still dominates the local Automotive advertising vertical, as well as the local Government/Political/Religion (“GPR”) vertical
BIA/Kelsey’ Media Ad View Plus Forecast, 2013
11 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Growth Ad Channels
Online local advertising exceeds $1 billion in 2013 for six different advertising categories. Top two:
Technology ($2.1B)
Retail ($1.8B)
Online and Mobile are top growing ad channels. By 2017: Real Estate will increase its online ad spend to an astonishing 40.8%
Automotive dealers will focus on video, spending 11.4% of their $2.4 billion online ad budget on video display
Quick service Restaurant category (subset of restaurants) will increase its online spending from $434.4 million to $618.6 million
Financial/Insurance category to grow mobile spend from 1.6 percent in 2012 to 9.8 percent 2017
Report Charts… let’s look at some
12 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Cable TV 5.7%
Direct Mail 28.2%
ERPM 1.5%
Internet YP 1.9%
Magazines 2.9%
Mobile 1.8%
Online 8.9%
Newspapers 16.7% Out-Of-
Home 6.0%
Print YP
3.5%
Radio 10.5%
TV 12.6%
2013 - $886 Million
Cable TV 5.8%
Direct Mail 26.3%
ERPM 2.1%
Internet YP
2.3% Magazines
2.5%
Mobile 6.4% Online
11.2%
Newspapers 12.5%
Out-Of-Home 6.3%
Print YP 1.6%
Radio 10.6%
TV 12.5%
2017 - $1,050 Million
Market Level Advertising Spending – Austin, TX
13 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Legal Services Spending by Media – Dayton, OH Results
Dayton, OH
Dayton, OH
Cable TV
4.8%
Direct Mail 25.4%
ERPM 0.5%
Internet YP 7.6% Magazines
4.2% Mobile 0.9%
Newspaper 11.9%
Online 5.1%
OOH 4.9%
Print YP 21.2%
Radio 4.1%
Television 9.5%
2013 - $4.413 Million
Cable TV 6.1%
Direct Mail 25.6%
ERPM 0.8%
Internet YP 11.8% Magazines
3.9% Mobile
3.1% Newspaper 9.1%
Online 7.0%
OOH 6.0%
Print YP 11.0%
Radio 4.7%
Television 11.0%
2017 – 4.372 Million
14 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Cable TV
2.6% Direct Mail 13.4%
ERPM 2.8%
Internet YP 1.5%
Magazines 2.7% Mobile
2.8% Newspaper 21.0%
Online 28.3%
OOH 8.5%
Print YP 1.5% Radio
5.2%
Television 9.7%
2013 - $2.026 Billion
Cable TV 3.3%
Direct Mail 7.9% ERPM
4.3% Internet YP
2.8%
Magazines 1.1% Mobile
12.6% Newspaper 6.9%
Online 40.8%
OOH 7.5%
Print YP 0.4%
Radio 4.3% Television
8.3%
2017 - $2.721 Billion
Real Estate Advertising Spending by Media – Nationwide Results
Nationwide
Nationwide
15 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Cable TV 3.0%
Direct Mail 43.4%
ERPM 0.7%
Internet YP 0.5%
Magazines 1.0%
Mobile 1.1% Newspaper
19.8%
Online 7.1%
OOH 2.8%
Print YP
0.5% Radio 10.5% Television
9.5%
2013 - $25.811 Billion
Cable TV 3.4%
Direct Mail 43.2%
ERPM 1.1%
Internet YP 0.6% Magazines
1.0%
Mobile 4.0%
Newspaper 14.9%
Online 7.9%
OOH 3.0%
Print YP 0.2%
Radio 10.7% Television
9.9%
2017 - $28.507 Billion
Retail Advertising Spending by Media – Nationwide Results
Nationwide
Nationwide
16 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Automobile Dealer Advertising – Austin, TX vs. Nationwide
Cable TV 7.5%
Direct Mail 15.5%
ERPM 0.7% Internet YP
0.8%
Magazines 2.4%
Mobile 1.1%
Newspaper 21.1% Online
8.7%
OOH 2.3%
Print YP 1.2%
Radio 12.4%
Television 26.5%
Austin, TX 2013 - $87.0 Million
Cable TV 6.8%
Direct Mail 14.4%
ERPM 0.6%
Internet YP 0.7%
Magazines 1.9%
Mobile 1.0%
Newspaper 19.7%
Online 8.1%
OOH 2.1%
Print YP 1.1%
Radio 12.9%
Television 30.6%
U.S. 2013 - $12.51 Billion
Nationwide
17 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Automobile Dealers Online Advertising - Austin, TX
Search 32.4%
Video Display 11.2%
Other Display 4.5%
Classified/ Verticals
52.0%
Austin, TX 2017: $19.1 Million
Search 32.9%
Video Display
6.5%
Other Display 7.3%
Classified/ Verticals
55.7%
Austin, TX 2013: $12.7 Million
18 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Search 33.4%
Video Display 6.6%
Other Display 7.5%
Classified/ Verticals
54.8%
2013 – $1.709 Billion
Search 30.9%
Video Display 10.7%
Other Display 4.3%
Classified/ Verticals
51.3%
2017 - $2.413 Billion
Automotive Dealers Online Spending by Segment – Nationwide Results
Nationwide
Nationwide
19 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Clients have told us that our estimates are the most reliable in the business. We are proud of this position and are committed to maintaining it.
Brief Recap of Methodology
BIA/Kelsey has been tracking media for over 30 years We have a “bottom up” and “top down” approach
− Significant feedback from major players in all of these local media industries
− Local demographic and economic data to allocate across markets Utilize national and local information revenue and
economic/demographic to estimate across general and detailed categories
Utilize actual local online activity data by advertiser category to generate online distribution for each category
20 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Business Advantage of Media Ad View Plus
21 © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Special Purchase Offer
CURRENT LIST PRICE $2,495/market
CONFERENCE PROMO $1,295/market. Want multiple markets? Bundle offer available. Must be purchased by September 27, 2013
VISIT WWW.BIAKELSEY.COM/MAV FOR REPORT DETAILS. To purchase, email [email protected] or call (703) 818-2425
QUESTIONS & COMMENTS MARK FRATRIK [email protected] (703) 818-2425
Copyright © 2013 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
This published material is for internal client use only. It may not be duplicated or distributed in any manner not permitted by contract. Any unauthorized distribution could result in termination of the client relationship, fines and other civil or criminal penalties under federal law.
BIA/Kelsey disclaims all warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein and similarly disclaims any liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages that may result from the use or interpretation of this information.
STEVE PASSWAITER [email protected] (703) 818-2425
