Beginnings of a Billion Dollar IndustryReview by: Gail F. MoultonThe Scientific Monthly, Vol. 48, No. 3 (Mar., 1939), pp. 274-275Published by: American Association for the Advancement of ScienceStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/16605 .

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274 THE SCIENTIFIC MONTHLY

have been in continuous existence for long periods of time are probably more successful than those that became over- specialized and were exterminated. The problem of biologic success is analyzed critically with a view to determine what modes of life, food habits, environment and reproductive factors have been suc- cessful for animals in the struggle for existence.

Against a nicely developed background, man is brought into the spotlight. Dr. Bradley holds no halo over his head from the standpoint of present-day anatomy or future anatomical promise. But he does have faith in man's brain and his perpetual discontent. The hope is ex- pressed that man may some day be as suc- cessful in controlling his own inner social world as he has been in controlling the outside physical and biologic world.

The book will likely find its way to the reading library of most of us, and surely our students should read it before they become lost in the complexity of detail characteristic of our present-day science.

IRA B. HANSEN THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY

BEGINNINGS OF A BILLION DOLLAR INDUSTRY3

DR. GIDDENS' book is primarily con- cerned with developments in northwest- ern Pennsylvania during the decade which began with the completion of the oil well drilled by E. L. Drake in 1859. The author gives proper emphasis to the fact that although Drake's well was the first one drilled for the purpose of pro- ducing oil, oil had been known to be present in springs and salt brine wells in the region for many years. The suc- cess of Drake's operation and the high price obtained for oil at that time pro- vided the basis for an astoundingly swift development, which is well portrayed by

The choice of a decade as the time of "birth" of the oil industry is amply justi- fied by the development of production, transportation, refining, marketing and financing activities during this period. Dr. Giddens treats all these phases of the new industry, calling attention to the numerous problems which had to be solved to establish the economic status of the newly developed mineral resource. During this period pipe lines were estab- lished for transportation, refining meth- ods to obtain a satisfactory illuminating oil were developed, lamps capable of burning the oil efficiently were invented, and markets were developed in the United States and the principal countries of; Europe. The only apparent omission in rounding out the picture is mention of the first application of principles of geology to prospecting for petroleum. A good foundation for the modern applica- tion of geology to petroleum exploration was published in a scientific paper by T. Sterry Hunt, of the Geological Survey of Canada, in 1861. During the ensuing eight or nine years several other geolo- gists published statements calling atten- tion to the relationship between geologic conditions and oil accumulation. Struc- ture contour maps were included in a geo- logical report on oil properties published in 1870, so there can be little doubt that they were in actual use contemporane- ously with the developments described in Dr. Giddens' book.

"The Birth of the Oil Industry" is not only of considerable general interest but should be of especial interest to those engaged either in the modern petroleum industry, in the development of Penn- sylvania or in the operation of economic forces under the American system. Dr. Giddens' book vividly portrays the in- itiative and resourcefulness of American entrepreneurs of that period. The nu- merous references included make original data readily available to those interested in further investigation of the subject,

3 The Birth of the Oil Industry. By Paul G. Giddens. 216 pp., 37 plates and maps. $3.00. The Macmillan Company.

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BOOKS ON SCIENCE FOR LAYMEN 275

while the "Introduction" by Ida M. Tar- bel'l provides an excellent summary of the book for the use of the less interested reader. "'The Birth of the Oil Indus- try" is to be highly recommencded.

GAIL F. MOULTON

IS IT PROBABLE?4

THE title "Your Chance to Win" and such chapter headings as " Heads or Tails," "lPoker Chances" and "Lot- teries, Craps, Bridge" might lead one to conclude that this book is a manual for gamblers. But such other chapter head- ings as " Falla'ies' "The Grammar of Chance," "From Chance to Statistics," "Fallacies and Statistics,'' "Statistics and Science" and "Business and Sta- tistics" indicate that it probably has a serious side.

As a matter of fact, Dr. Levinson has written a thoroughly scientific work. Instead of proceeding with orthodox academic ponderosity from definitions that have no relation to ordinary experi- ence, he stacrts with things with which all the world is familiar-with such things as luck and gambling and super- stition and fallacies, not in the abstract but in concrete illustrations from things in every-day life. On the one hand, he exposes the erroneous ideas of those who gamble and the improbability of their win:ning; on the other hand, he makes clear in what sense chance and probabil- ity, as they are called, play roles in the events in which we are interested. In a very entertaining and illuminating chap- ter on "Gamblers and Scientists" he ex- plains how, in the seventeenth century, what had been thought of as lawless

probability, which has only recently been generally recognized as one of the best tools of theoretical science. In " The Grammar of Chance " he defines very exactly and illustrates clearly the fun- damental terms that are used in the theory of probability.

Two or three chapters are devoted to several common games of chance, includ- ing tossing of coins, poker and roulette. As entertaining as they are, with spark- ling illustrations of human weaknesses and errors in thinking, their real pur- pose is to give the reader a clear under- standing of a subject beset with many pitfalls and to prepare him for straight thinking about the nature and power of statistics in relation to such important and varied subjects as science, advertis- ing and business.

There is probably no other book on the subject of probability and statistics that is so entertaining or that throws inci- dentally so much light on a certain class of human weaknesses centering in the wide-spread and possibly increasing de- sire to get something for nothing. At the same time there is probably no other book that makes clearer the real nature of probability and the errors that may be committed in applying the theory of probability. All this is accomplished without the use of complicated mathe- matical expressions. The discussions of applications of statistics to science, illus- trated by Dr. Rhine 's experiments on telepathy and clairvoyance, and to ad- vertising anid business, relate largely to principles rather than to the mechanics of obtaining numerical results. Yet a reader who has understandingly fol- lowed the discussions would be able to apply them safely, much more safely than one could apply form-ulas whose basic principles he did not fully compre- hend. F. R. M.

4 " G Your Chance to Win. " I By Horace C. Levinson. 343 pages. Farrar and Rinehart, Inc.

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