Behavioral Foundations.ppt

8/9/2019 Behavioral Foundations.ppt

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BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATIONS

Khoa TCDN, H Kinh T Tp.HCM

NN TNG HNH VI


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Students will be able to:

Identify the keybiae that lead

menagers to makefaulty financialdecisions aout riskyalternati!es

Nh!n bi"t nh#n$%&'h %('khin nh"

#u$n l% &'a ra c(c#uyt &)nh t"i ch*nhsai l+m ! c(c l-achn c/ t*nh r0i ro


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12plain 3hy )e%ian'ean he*)iti'and*'e+tibi%ity t,

f)a-in$ effe'trender managers!ulnerale to makingfaulty decisions that

reduce firm !alue

4i$i th*ch t5i sao .+h/ th*0' 12, kinhn$hi&-!" . nh(y

'3- 14i hi&* 5n$-6 t3 khin c(c nh"#u$n l% &'a ra c(c#uyt &)nh sai l+m,

l"m gi$m gi( tr) c6ngty.


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7ecogni8e that in!estorsare *'e+tib%eto thesame iases as managers

and that -i+)i'in$stemming from in!estorerrors can causemanagers to make faultydecisions that reduce firm!alue

Nh9n ra r:ng c(c nh"&+u t'd7 -8' +h3ic(c l;ch l5c gi


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TRADITIONAL TREATORATE FINAN=IALDE=ISIONS

FIR


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TRADITIONAL TREATMENT OF CORPORATE FINANCIAL

DECISIONS


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TRADITIONAL TREATMENT OF CORPORATE FINANCIAL

DECISIONS


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BEHAVIORAL TREATORATE FINAN=IALDE=ISIONS


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St*dent

Aware(nhn bit)


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Beha1i,)a%+itfa%%

Daniel Kahneman

Fmos T!ersky

N,be% >)iCe inE',n,-i'


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The main objective


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GiasesJ khuynh h'Lng dn &n sai l+m@ 12cessi!e optimismJ #u( l5c #uan

@ O!erconfidenceJ Pu( t- tin

@ Confirmation iasJ A;ch l5c t- 2(c nh9n

@ Bllusion of controlJ Qo t'Rng ki?m so(t



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Giases J@ 12cessi!e optimismJ Ng'Si ta th'Sng

&(nh gi( #u( cao kh$ nng &5t &'Uc kt

#u$ nh' % !" &(nh gi( th=p kh$ nng&'Uc kt #u$ =t lUi.

@ eople o!erestimate ho3 fre#uently they

3ill e2perience fa!orale outcomes andunderestimate ho3 fre#uently they 3ille2perience unfa!orale outcomes.



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#iases


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Giases J@ O!erconfidenceJ Con ng'Si mVc sai l+m

nhiu hWn l" h nghX !" lu6n tin r:ng $n

thYn mZnh gi[i hWn m\t :ng chung@ eople make mistakes more fre#uently

than they elie!e and !ie3 themsel!es as

etter than a!erage.



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#iases


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Giases J@ Confirmation iasJ Ng'Si ta th'Sng #uan

trng h/a nh]ng th6ng tin 0ng h^ cho

#uan &i?m c0a mZnh hWn nh]ng th6ng tinch


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#iases


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Giases J@ Bllusion of controlJ con ng'Si &(nh gi( #u(

cao kh$ nng ki?m so(t tZnh hZnh c0a $n

thYn.@ eople o!erestimate the e2tent to 3hich

they can control e!ents.



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#iases


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He*)iti' T. n$hi&-7epresentati!eness

TZnh hu


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He*)iti' T. n$hi&-Fnchoring

Neo

Gecome fi2ated on anumer and adEustinsufficiently

D-a !"o m^t con s< !" &iuchnh kh6ng &+y &0

7educe firm !alueecause of iased gro3thforecasts

4i$m gi( tr) doanh nghi;pdo d- (o tng tr'Rng )l;ch l5c

Fffect

C$m t*nh

7ely on instincts instead of

formal !aluation analysisC$m t*nh thay !Z d-a !"ophYn t*ch logic

7educe firm !alue

ecause negati!e N_proEects adopted

4i$m gi( tr) doanh nghi;pdo ch=p nh9n c(c d- (n

c/ N_ nh[ hWn b.


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F)a-in$ effe't Hi&* 5n$ -6 t3Aoss a!ersion

Ng5i thua l

Aosses loom larger thangains of the same si8e

Thua l t(c &^ng lLn hWn lSi

!Li cng &^ lLn

oregone ta2 shieldenefits ecause ofa!ersion to det

G[ #ua lUi *ch ! thu !ZsU tr$ nU

F!ersion to asure loss

Ng5i kho$n lchVc chVn

Thro3 good money afterad in losing proEects

Tip tc &+u t' !"o d- (nthua l

7educe firm !alueecause negati!e N_

decision4i$m gi( tr) doanh nghi;p!Z #uyt &)nh c/ N_ nh[hWn b.


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$end toemphasi%e

Khuynhhng nhnmnh:

&emedies

Cc giiphp khcphc

Khuyn khch to ng lc trong cng !i"c

#ui tr$nh !% %o to


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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

SUN MICROSYSTEMS AND Scott McNealy (CEO)

@The psychological attriutes ofuns chief e2ecuti!e officer Th(i

&^ tYm l% c0a C1O

@The decisions made y unsmanagers Nh]ng #uyt &)nh c0a

c(c nh" #u$n l% c0a un


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BIASES

A +)edi+,iti,n t,a)d e)),)

%2 kh*ynh h4n$ dJn t4i ai %K-

12cessi!e optimism #u( l5c#uan,

O!erconfidence #u( t- tin,

Confirmation ias l;ch l5c 2(cnh9n,

The illusion of control $o

t'Rng ! kh$ nng ki?m so(t.

Four particular biae


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E!ceive optimim " #u$ l%c &uan

O1e)eti-ate fa1,)ab%e ,*t',-e

Unde)eti-ate *nfa1,)ab%e ,*t',-e

Delayed cost cutting and value loss Tr hon ct gim chi ph v ct l

Excessively optimistic stocholders !

"# $u% l&c $uan c'a nh s( h)u

B' (a')))


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Delayed cost cutting and value loss Tr hon ct gim chi ph v ct l

B' (a')))

Thereb' *etro'in+ value at hi ,irm


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Excessively optimistic stocholders !"# $u% l&c $uan c'a nh s( h)u

B' (a')))

Fault' *eciion about invetmentpolic'- ,inancin+ an* ac&uiition


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.vercon,i*ence " #u$ t/ tin

>e,+%e -ake -itake -,)e f)eM*ent%y than they

be%ie1e and 1ie the-e%1e a bette) than a1e)a$e

*vercon+idence a,out a,ility -u% t# tin v. h n/ng

*vercon+idence a,out no0ledge

-u% t# tin v. i1n th2c

Sho()))


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.vercon,i*ence " #u$ t/ tin

>e,+%e -ake -itake -,)e f)eM*ent%y than they

be%ie1e and 1ie the-e%1e a bette) than a1e)a$e

@ 3ocy 4t# mn5 ! 3ociness is a symptom4tri6u ch2ng5 o+ overcon+idence

@ "mart 4th7ng minh5


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0on,irmation bia 1 l2ch l%c t/ !$c nh3n

>e,+%e atta'h t,, -*'h i-+,)tan'e t, inf,)-ati,n

that *++,)t thei) 1ie )e%ati1e t, inf,)-ati,n that)*n ',*nte) t, thei) 1ie

8g9:i ta th9:ng $uan tr;ng h


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0on,irmation bia " l2ch l%c t/ !$c nh3n

They+end t,, -*'h ti-esearching for reasons to

support 3hy their !ie3sa)e )i$ht andt,, %itt%e ti-esearching for reasons that might lead them to conclude

that their !ie3sa)e ),n$

C; tAn rt nhi.u th:i gian tm ra l do >? ,o v6 $uan >i?mc'a mnh l >Fng v ,G ra rt t th:i gian >? tm ra nguyHn

nhIn c< th? >9a >1n 1t luJn l h; saiB

@Turnin+ a blin* e'e " B4 &ua c$c 56 n+h7


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Illuion o, control " o tng v kh nng kim sot

>e,+%e ,1e)eti-ate the etent t, hi'h they 'an

',nt),% e1ent

Khi ng9:i ta >%nh gi% $u% cao h n/ng i?m so%t tnh hnh

c'a ,n thInB

Lsychological studies have +ound that an increase in perceived

control leads to an increase in excessive optimism

3%c nghiHn c2u tIm l h;c > tm thy rMng m=t s# gia trongh n/ng i?m so%t >9Nc nhJn th2c dOn >1n s# gia t/ng trong

tIm l $u% l&c $uan


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Illuion o, control " o tng v kh nng kim sot

>e,+%e ,1e)eti-ate the etent t, hi'h they 'an

',nt),% e1ent

Khi ng9:i ta >%nh gi% $u% cao h n/ng i?m so%t tnh hnh

c'a ,n thInB

@8ot ma*e here " S9 :h;n+ !


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?EURISTI0S

A rule o, thumb ue* to ma:e a *eciion


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People ma:e ju*+ment bae* on tereot'pic thin:in+-

a:in+ ho( repreentative an object or i*ea i ,or the

cla to (hich it belon+)

Ngi ta thng nh gi da vo u' n+h@ r3p :hu;n

bng cch hi l mt ! ki"n ha# s v$t %i di&n nh th" no

cho mt nh'm(

@The internet repreent the overall econom'" Internet 5%i *i2n cho ton b n6n :inh tC


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People over(ei+ht in,ormation that i rea*il' available

an* intuitive relative to in,ormation that i le alient

an* more abtract- thereb' biain+ ju*+ment

)on ngi thng nh gi cao th*ng tin s+n c' v t,c

gic h-n nh.ng th*ng tin ng/m v k0m n1i b$t2 d3n "n

4hn on sai l&ch(

@.ut i, i+ht- out o, min* " Xao nhDn+ vi2c&u


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People ,orm an etimate b' be+innin+ (ith an initial

number an* a*jutin+ to re,lect ne( in,ormation or

circumtance

)on ngi a ,a 5c l6ng da vo mt con s7 ban /8

v i8 ch9nh 4hn nh th*ng tin v t:nh h:nh m5i(

?o(ever- the' ten* to ma:e inu,,icient a*jutment

relative to that number- thereb' lea*in+ to anchorin+bia

;8# nhi v:

v$# d3n "n l&ch l%c n?o(


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Anchore* to +ro(th " 8eo theo / tn+ trGHn+


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A,,ect ))) An emotional ,eelin+ liJn &uan 5Cn c


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A,,ect heuritic ))) Bain+ *eciion primaril' on

intuition- intinct- an* +ut ,eelin+ */a vo tr/c +i$c-b


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FRA


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FRA),+e't the,)y

Aversion to a sure lossNgi khon l chc chn


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Loss aversion

4ung @ng Au* &t B1 nu r' mDt h$nh nhng 5Ethng FFF Gu r' mDt chHF


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Loss aversion

g(n m^t t trnglLn hWn kho$n l

_ m\t tYm l%,

con ng'Si tr$i

nghi;m c$m2jc m5nh &


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Loss aversion

L, a1e)i,n 'an 'a*edebt a1e)i,n

Det can e usedto shield in!estorsfrom corporateta2es

I nU c/ th? &'Ucs dng &? t5o rat=m chVn thu thunh9p doanh

nghi;pI

Traditional te2tooks incorporate finance teach thatI.

4hc t cc 6o'nh nghi"p !'y nI thp hJnmc l= thuyt L AutFFF


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Aversion to a sure loss

L, PQ

MBN ch'nc)* you lo55;ill ) 211

0BN ch'nc)* you lo55;ill ) 1

Fa'e a 'h,i'e'

'


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Aversion to a sure loss

They 'h,,e )ik h,+in$ t,b)eakin$ e1en

E n$(i kh,3n % 'h8' 'h8n

eople choose to accept an actuarially unfair risk r0i rokh6ng cYn :ng in an attempt to a!oid a sure loss


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EBIASI8Q " TR8? L0? L0

The psychological

phenomena

ystematic ersistent

COn phi l%m g$ > gim Ic ccl"ch lc !% 5'i lOmF

(Png cch n%o con ngQi cR th>trnh nhHng l"ch lcF

/h't c'n ) 6on) to r)6uc)th)5) )rror5 'n6 i'5)5F

So; c'n p)opl) 6)i'5F


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EBIASI8Q F.R BETTER E0ISI.8S

Sai lm hoc lch lc: Ch=p nh9n r0i ro kh6ng cYn :ng

Ti sao s vic xy ra? 1 ng5i kho$n l chVc chVn

S vic xy ra nh th no? Khi &

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Behavioral Foundations.ppt