14
Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013 See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Berli Jucker (BJC TB) Sell (from Neutral) Consumer Cyclical - Distribution & Wholesale Target Price: THB31.0 Market Cap: USD1,992m Price: THB40.0 Struggling to Find Its Footing Macro Risks Growth Value Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 172m/5.57m Cons. Upside (%) 23.8 Upside (%) -15.0 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 40.0 - 91.0 Free float (%) 25 Shareholders (%) TCC Holding 70.1 DBS Vickers (Singapore) 4.9 Thai NVDR 2.5 Shariah compliant Chalie Kueyen 66 2862 9745 License No.4975 [email protected] Source: Company data, RHB estimates Following a visit to BJC’s Vietnam plant, we see headwinds until 2014, namely: i) glass bottle demand shrinkage, ii) consumer products margin pressures, iii) profitability issues, and iv) additional Vietnam capex. Only the company’s aluminium cans business is improving, but it cannot offset the weaker segments. Thus, we revise downwards BJC’s FY13F/14F earnings by 16%/28% and cut TP by 40% to THB31. Shrinking demand for glass bottles from related companies. BJC’s core glass bottle business (~30% of revenue) is under pressure, following shrinking demand shrinkage from related companies Thai Beverage (THBEV SP, NR), Sermsuk (SSC TB, NR) and Oishi (OISHI TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB130) on rising competition & lower volume and from outsider customer; Thai Theparos (SAUCE TB, NR). SSC’s Est Cola’s market share has been falling with the aggressive return of Pepsi (after a 6-month lull), which has hurt glass bottle demand, while Oishi’s Green Tea has been unable to gain popularity, contributing zero volume to BJC in since June. Thus, capacity utilisation (CAPU) has fallen continuously to 80-85% in 2Q13 (<80% in July) from 95% in 1Q13. Potentially losing a key customer. After gaining a 20% market share in the energy drink segment, Carabao Daeng (BJC’s key customer is building its own glass bottle plant for internal use and for OEM purposes. The plant, whose capacity is equal to BJC’s, is set to begin operations in 2014, which could result in BJC losing a key client and seeing a glass bottle oversupply in the market going forward. Negligible earnings contribution from Vietnam. BJC has invested ~THB2-3bn to expand aggressively its Vietnam businesses on: i) an aluminium can plant (BJC holds 27%), and ii) acquiring two distributors and a convenience store (CVS) chain. Only the plant has broken even (vs. loss THB60m in FY12), while two distributors report negligible profits at the current and going forward on sluggish consumer demand and high interest expense, and CVS will breakeven in FY15 after it expands to >200 stores (from 40 currently) and increase daily sales per store by 40% to THB22,000. 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 Berli Jucker (BJC TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Vol m Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover (THBm) 26,082 31,235 37,429 42,195 48,015 Reported net profit (THBm) 1,905 2,178 2,415 2,438 2,861 Recurring net profit (THBm) 1,905 2,178 2,415 2,438 2,861 Recurring net profit growth (%) 51.0 14.3 10.9 1.0 17.3 Core EPS (THB) 1.20 1.37 1.52 1.54 1.80 Core P/E (x) 33.3 29.2 26.3 26.1 22.2 Return on average equity (%) 17.5 18.2 18.4 16.9 17.9 P/B (x) 5.57 5.06 4.63 4.20 3.77 P/CF (x) 11.3 14.7 15.2 9.6 11.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.6 17.4 19.0 17.4 15.6 Net debt to equity (%) 53.0 63.9 68.5 67.1 65.0 Our vs consensus EPS (%) (19.6) (19.9)

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - RHB TradeSmart

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) Sell (from Neutral) Consumer Cyclical - Distribution & Wholesale Target Price: THB31.0

Market Cap: USD1,992m Price: THB40.0

Struggling to Find Its Footing

Macro

3.00

Risks

3.00

Growth

1.00

Value

1.00

Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 172m/5.57m

Cons. Upside (%) 23.8

Upside (%) -15.0

52-wk Price low/high (THB) 40.0 - 91.0

Free float (%) 25

Shareholders (%)

TCC Holding 70.1

DBS Vickers (Singapore) 4.9

Thai NVDR 2.5

Shariah compliant

Chalie Kueyen 66 2862 9745

License No.4975

[email protected]

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Following a visit to BJC’s Vietnam plant, we see headwinds until 2014,

namely: i) glass bottle demand shrinkage, ii) consumer products margin

pressures, iii) profitability issues, and iv) additional Vietnam capex.

Only the company’s aluminium cans business is improving, but it

cannot offset the weaker segments. Thus, we revise downwards BJC’s

FY13F/14F earnings by 16%/28% and cut TP by 40% to THB31.

Shrinking demand for glass bottles from related companies. BJC’s

core glass bottle business (~30% of revenue) is under pressure,

following shrinking demand shrinkage from related companies Thai

Beverage (THBEV SP, NR), Sermsuk (SSC TB, NR) and Oishi (OISHI

TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB130) on rising competition & lower volume and

from outsider customer; Thai Theparos (SAUCE TB, NR). SSC’s Est

Cola’s market share has been falling with the aggressive return of Pepsi

(after a 6-month lull), which has hurt glass bottle demand, while Oishi’s

Green Tea has been unable to gain popularity, contributing zero volume

to BJC in since June. Thus, capacity utilisation (CAPU) has fallen

continuously to 80-85% in 2Q13 (<80% in July) from 95% in 1Q13.

Potentially losing a key customer. After gaining a 20% market share in

the energy drink segment, Carabao Daeng (BJC’s key customer is

building its own glass bottle plant for internal use and for OEM purposes.

The plant, whose capacity is equal to BJC’s, is set to begin operations in

2014, which could result in BJC losing a key client and seeing a glass

bottle oversupply in the market going forward.

Negligible earnings contribution from Vietnam. BJC has invested

~THB2-3bn to expand aggressively its Vietnam businesses on: i) an

aluminium can plant (BJC holds 27%), and ii) acquiring two distributors

and a convenience store (CVS) chain. Only the plant has broken even

(vs. loss THB60m in FY12), while two distributors report negligible profits

at the current and going forward on sluggish consumer demand and high

interest expense, and CVS will breakeven in FY15 after it expands to

>200 stores (from 40 currently) and increase daily sales per store by

40% to THB22,000.

65

85

105

125

145

165

185

34

44

54

64

74

84

94

Berli Jucker (BJC TB)Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Au

g-1

2

Oct-

12

De

c-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Apr-

13

Ju

l-1

3

Vo

l m

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover (THBm) 26,082 31,235 37,429 42,195 48,015

Reported net profit (THBm) 1,905 2,178 2,415 2,438 2,861

Recurring net profit (THBm) 1,905 2,178 2,415 2,438 2,861

Recurring net profit growth (%) 51.0 14.3 10.9 1.0 17.3

Core EPS (THB) 1.20 1.37 1.52 1.54 1.80

Core P/E (x) 33.3 29.2 26.3 26.1 22.2

Return on average equity (%) 17.5 18.2 18.4 16.9 17.9

P/B (x) 5.57 5.06 4.63 4.20 3.77

P/CF (x) 11.3 14.7 15.2 9.6 11.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 18.6 17.4 19.0 17.4 15.6

Net debt to equity (%) 53.0 63.9 68.5 67.1 65.0

Our vs consensus EPS (%) (19.6) (19.9)

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

BJC’s Headwinds

Shrinking demand for glass bottles from related companies

BJC’s glass bottle core business (~30% of revenue) is under pressure on shrinking

demand from related companies and external customers. In terms of the former, the

company provides glass bottles for THBEV’s alcohol business, will fully supply glass

bottles for SSC’s Est Cola and provides returnable bottles for Oishi’s Green Tea. Due

to a highly competitive market and some market share loss in 2Q13, orders from

SSC and Oishi have declined dramatically, and are expected to continue declining in

3Q13. However, declining orders from THBEV was due to seasonality.

Lower orders from external customers: SAUCE and Carabao Daeng

In terms of BJC’s external customers, SAUCE has reduced orders, following its

decision to change its food containers to plastic bottles from glass ones. As SAUCE

is one of BJC’s key customers, an order reduction will affect the outlook of the latter’s

operations. Furthermore, Carabao Daeng is now setting up its own glass bottle plant

that will have a capacity of 300 tons per day. The latter’s capacity expansion turns us

more cautious on the industry’s outlook, given that this new plant’s capacity is equal

to that of BJC’s. Thus, the company’s CAPU has now been falling continuously to 80-

85% in 2Q13 (<80% in July) from 95% in 1Q13.

Negligible contribution from Vietnam for the next two years

BJC has expanded its Vietnam consumer supply chain and CVS aggressively.

However, given the tough market conditions there, net profit contributions from the

consumer supply chain (BJC holds 65%) and its aluminium can plant (BJC holds a

27% stake) will be negligible, at around 3-4% of BJC’s combined net profit, while the

convenience store chain will run at a loss until 2015. Downgrade earnings

Regarding BJC’s THB1.2bn 1H13 earnings, this included forex gains of around

THB100m. If you strip out this item, the company would have posted a net profit of

THB1.1bn, or flat growth. In anticipation of better sales value for the healthcare

business, but lower sales growth for the packaging business and flat sales growth for

the consumer sector in 2H, we are lowering our FY13 sales forecast to 14% (from

20%) and applying 14%/22% growth for FY14F-15F, while cutting gross profit margin

(GPM) by 40bps to 24.1% from FY13-15. Thus, we revise downwards BJC’s net

profit by 16%/28% in FY13/14.

Figure 1: Net profit forecast change and TP revised downwards

Previous Current

2013F 2014F 2015F 2013F 2014F 2015F

Assumption

Sales growth 20% 20% 24.5% 13.6% 13.8% 21.6%

- Packaging 20% 20% 20% 12% 12% 20%

- Consumer 20% 20% 20% 15% 15% 20%

- Health care 20% 20% 25% 15% 15% 20%

- International 20% 20% 40% 20% 20% 30%

Gross profit margin 24.45% 24.6% 24.7% 24.1% 24.1% 24.1%

SG&A to sales 10.6% 10.8% 10.8% 10.6% 10.8% 10.8%

Net profit (THB m) 3,112 4,034 5,040 2,483 2,861 3,838

EPS (THB) 1.96 2.5 3.2 1.68 1.93 2.42

Fair price (THB) 57 31

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

De-rating PE, cutting TP by 45% to THB31

Our view is that BJC is facing headwinds in the short- to medium-term and that a

turnaround may take some time, as several of its businesses, ie glass bottles and

Vietnam operation, are being challenged by factors beyond its control. To cope with

declining orders from key clients, BJC needs to find new orders and new clients to

offset the slower sections. Thus, we will wait and see what the company’s strategy

will be to counter such a challenge. As we view that BJC’s core business turnaround

has to wait until 2014 or 2015 and that unexciting earnings are expected in the near-

term, we are reducing the company’s valuation premium. We are assigning a P/E of

16.0x (from 25.0x) to revalue BJC’s TP to THB31 (from THB57.00).

Heavy Vietnam Investments

BJC has invested a lot of resources and effort to expand its business in Indochina,

ahead of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) integration, which will become

effective in 2016. In Vietnam in particular, the company has expanded aggressively in

three business lines: i) an aluminium can plant, ii) a consumer product distribution

network, and iii) a CVS chain. Currently, international sales account for 17% of BJC’s

1H13 sales revenue (FY12: 12%), but, as yet, no profit contribution. Of that sales

revenue total, Vietnam accounts for 70% of BJC’s overseas business.

TBC-Ball turns a profit, but bottomline contribution insignificant

TBC-Ball (an aluminium can manufacturer that services the likes of Carlsberg and

Coca Cola) is BJC’s first business in Vietnam and only started its commercial run in

2Q12. Currently, this plant runs at a breakeven point (vs a net loss of around

THB60mn in FY12) and the company expects it to turn profitable in 2H13. However,

we do not expect a significant net profit contribution, as BJC’s equity interest in this

plant is only 26.8%. Given that its aluminium can plant in Thailand (which is twice the

size of the Vietnam one) contributes net profits of around THB500-550m annually,

the Vietnam aluminium plant should contribute annual earnings of around THB70m,

or about 3% of BJC’s average net profit.

Figure 2: International sales and percentage of total sales Figure 3: International sales breakdown by country (1H13)

Source: RHB estimates Source: RHB estimates

Focused consumer business

After acquiring Thai-An in Hanoi, its second distribution network business (after Thai

Corp), BJC is able to fulfil its distribution network strategy of being in two major cities

and/or areas (one each in Northern and Southern Vietnam). Currently, the company

is moving into the CVS chain segment, by setting its own brand B’Smart brand in Ho

Chi Minh City.

1,039

2,147

3,913

4,452

3,513

4.8%8.4%

12.8% 11.9%

16.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 1H13

International sales (THBm)

% of total sales

THBm

Vietnam, 69%Malaysia , 14%

Myanmar, 4%

Singapore , 3%Others ,

10%

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Figure 4: Investments in Vietnam

Year of

investment

Company name % holding Investment cost

(THBm)

Type of business

2009 TBC-Ball

26.8% na Aluminium can plant with capacity 850m cans/yr (half that of

Thailand’s capacity)

2010 Thai Corp 75% ~1,000 Consumer distributor and dealers - covering Ho Chi Minh City

2013 Thai An 65% 990 Consumer distributor and dealers - covering Hanoi

2013 Ichiban 75% 140 Manufacturing and distribution of tofu/bean curd and related products

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

90% of its consumer business relies on traditional trade

The consumer supply chain and retail business in Vietnam is still underdeveloped, as

regulations are not yet open to foreign-ownership. For all retailer types, foreign entities

can open only one store and are not allowed to undertake any expansion.

Furthermore, non-Vietnamese citizens are only allowed to set-up a business with a

maximum stake of 50%. Thus, the consumer business is still heavily reliant on

traditional trade distribution channels, which account for 90% of the country’s total

trade volume, according to BJC.

Figure 5: Target growth for consumer supply chain nationwide in Vietnam

Unit: THBm 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Food 484 1,422 1,776 2,323 3,128 4,172

Non-food 2,439 3,174 3,744 5,050 5,960 7,414

Total 2,923 4,597 5,520 7,373 9,087 11,586

Distribution outlet 125,000 165,000 190,000 215,000 230,000 250,000

ROE 15% 12% 15% 18% 20% 25%

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Remark : Sales are converedt from VND to THB at a rate of VND10,000:THB14.5

Aggressively expanding CVS

Vietnam’s retail sector is currently alike to Thailand’s around 10-15 years ago, in

terms of regulations and consumption behaviour. Given that the regulatory

environment has yet to be liberalised in Vietnam, BJC has formed joint-ventures

(JVs) with local partners and expanded its distribution network aggressively ahead of

anticipated market liberalisation in 2016 after the AEC comes into place. Currently,

both Thai-An and Thai Corp have a combined distribution network of around 130,000

outlets nationwide, with total sales contributions of around THB3.0bn. BJC expects

this distribution network to reach 230,000 outlets, with sales value of around

THB9.0bn in 2016, implying CAGR of around 28%.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

Figure 6: Number of CVS and target growth

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Aggressively expanding its convenience store chain

BJC targets its consumer supply chain to grow in tandem with the expansion of its

CVS chain, which it intends to expand under the B’Smart brand. B’Smart is currently

running at 2,500 stock keeping units (sku) per store. Under a 3-year plan, the number

of stores will expand to 150 stores in FY14, and 300 stores in FY15, servicing around

3,500 sku per store.

Risk And Opportunity In Vietnam

Tough time in Vietnam

In our view, although the consumer product penetration in Vietnam remains low, it is

not an easy market to operate in and there are a lot of challenges going forward.

Currently, the consumer business is facing heavy pressure from the country’s

economic slowdown, which has seen rising high inflation of around 7-7.5% in 1H13,

high interest rates (the policy rate is around 7%) and financial issues. Thus, BJC’s

consumer supply chain posted negative sales growth in FY13 and bottomline losses

due to rising interest costs.

CVS are expected to breakeven in FY15

B’Smart is operating 41 stores, with daily sales of THB18,000 per store. To run at

breakeven, the chain needs to expand to more than 200 stores and increase daily

sales by 40%.

Figure 7: B’Smart current performance and target in 2015

Present Target in 2015

No. of store 41 300

Daily sales/store (THB) 18,000 22,000

Sales/ticket 34 40

Gross margin 14.8% 20.5%

Assortment 2,500sku >3,500sku

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

CVS business is not easy in Vietnam

Although there are only a few players in the market, the competition among the

existing players is still tough. Basically, most of the convenience store players focus

their business in Ho Chi Minh City only. Market leader Shop & Go operates 77 stores

and has been in this sector for more than eight years, while Circle K from Japan is the

second largest with 50 stores.

40

90

150

300

450

700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

Figure 8: Key players in CVS in Vietnam

No. of branch No. of year experience

Shop & Go 77 8

Circle K 50 5

B’Smart (BJC) 41 0.1

Ministop 17 3

Source: Company data

Cash flow needs

Another key factor that challenges B’Smart and BJC’s consumer supply chain is cash

flow management. During the start-up period, we believe that internal cash flow from

these business units will not be enough to fund expansion strategies. Hence, at this

level, BJC needs to provide financial support before the businesses can breakeven.

BJC’s Vietnam CVS – B’Smart

Figure 9: B’Smart – flagship store Figure 10: BJC’s CVS head Figure 11: Key B’Smart competitor

Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI

Figure 12: B’Smart store layout Figure 13: B’Smart store layout Figure 14: B’Smart store layout

Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI Source: RHB estimates

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 7

Figure 15: B’Smart store layout Figure 16: B’Smart store layout Figure 17: B’Smart store layout

Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI

Figure 18: B’Smart store layout Figure 19: B’Smart store layout Figure 20: B’Smart store layout Figure 21: B’Smart store layout

Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI

Figure 22: B’Smart store layout Figure 23: B’Smart store layout Figure 24: B’Smart store layout

Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI Source: RHBRI

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 8

Financial Exhibits

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover 26,082 31,235 37,429 42,195 48,015

Cost of sales (18,940) (23,454) (28,402) (32,019) (36,435)

Gross profit 7,142 7,781 9,027 10,177 11,580

Gen & admin expenses (4,392) (4,826) (6,116) (6,830) (7,645)

Operating profit 2,750 2,954 2,911 3,346 3,935

Operating EBITDA 4,166 4,735 4,554 5,121 5,851

Depreciation of fixed assets (1,416) (1,781) (1,643) (1,774) (1,916)

Operating EBIT 2,750 2,954 2,911 3,346 3,935

Net income from investments 62 46 66 85 120

Other recurring income 234 444 539 450 504

Interest expense (227) (366) (503) (584) (658)

Exchange gains 43 30 87 50 50

Pre-tax profit 2,863 3,108 3,100 3,348 3,951

Taxation (668) (693) (605) (670) (790)

Minority interests (289) (238) (80) (240) (300)

Profit after tax & minorities 1,905 2,178 2,415 2,438 2,861

Reported net profit 1,905 2,178 2,415 2,438 2,861

Recurring net profit 1,905 2,178 2,415 2,438 2,861

Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Operating profit 2,750 2,954 2,911 3,346 3,935

Depreciation & amortisation 1,416 1,781 1,643 1,774 1,916

Change in working capital 728 (192) 421 1,411 (353)

Other operating cash flow 302 913 378 (25) (29)

Operating cash flow 5,196 5,456 5,353 6,506 5,469

Interest paid (227) (366) (503) (584) (658)

Tax paid 668 (762) (660) 670 790

Cash flow from operations 5,637 4,328 4,190 6,592 5,602

Capex (3,923) (3,841) (3,808) (4,000) (3,500)

Other investing cash flow (64) 468 (84) - -

Cash flow from investing activities (3,987) (3,373) (3,892) (4,000) (3,500)

Dividends paid (809) (1,000) (1,223) (1,087) (1,097)

Increase in debt 1,021 2,321 2,080 25 1,000

Other financing cash flow (255) (432) (352) (584) (658)

Cash flow from financing activities (43) 889 505 (1,645) (755)

Cash at beginning of period 841 1,224 1,828 2,015 1,707

Total cash generated 1,607 1,844 804 947 1,347

Forex effects (87) (66) (85) (84) (83)

Implied cash at end of period 2,361 3,001 2,547 2,879 2,971

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 9

Financial Exhibits

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total cash and equivalents 1,224 1,828 2,015 1,707 1,757

Inventories 4,466 5,124 6,864 7,173 8,163

Accounts receivable 5,769 7,126 7,998 8,017 9,123

Other current assets 234 232 95 185 275

Total current assets 11,692 14,310 16,972 17,082 19,318

Total investments 412 416 432 420 420

Tangible fixed assets 12,460 14,143 16,583 18,708 20,833

Total other assets 3,113 4,110 4,273 4,506 5,080

Total non-current assets 15,985 18,669 21,288 23,634 26,333

Total assets 27,677 32,979 38,260 40,717 45,650

Short-term debt 4,111 3,198 4,828 4,075 3,457

Accounts payable 4,179 5,638 7,052 5,123 5,830

Other current liabilities 1,279 338 347 1,899 2,961

Total current liabilities 9,568 9,174 12,227 11,097 12,247

Total long-term debt 3,965 7,912 8,344 9,844 11,644

Other liabilities 1,210 1,363 1,406 1,585 1,238

Total non-current liabilities 5,175 9,275 9,750 11,429 12,882

Total liabilities 14,743 18,449 21,976 22,526 25,130

Share capital 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,588

Retained earnings reserve 6,653 7,673 8,810 10,362 12,079

Other reserves 3,174 3,282 3,330 3,174 3,174

Shareholders' equity 11,415 12,543 13,728 15,124 16,840

Minority interests 1,520 1,987 2,556 3,067 3,680

Total equity 12,934 14,530 16,284 18,191 20,521

Total liabilities & equity 27,677 32,979 38,260 40,717 45,650

Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Revenue growth (%) 14.4 19.8 19.8 12.7 13.8

Operating profit growth (%) 69.5 7.4 (1.5) 14.9 17.6

Net profit growth (%) 51.0 14.3 10.9 1.0 17.3

EPS growth (%) 51.0 14.3 10.9 1.0 17.3

Bv per share growth (%) 10.3 9.9 9.4 10.2 11.4

Operating margin (%) 10.5 9.5 7.8 7.9 8.2

Net profit margin (%) 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 6.0

Return on average assets (%) 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.2 6.6

Return on average equity (%) 17.5 18.2 18.4 16.9 17.9

Net debt to equity (%) 53.0 63.9 68.5 67.1 65.0

Recurrent cash flow per share 3.55 2.73 2.64 4.15 3.53

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 10

SWOT Analysis

Market leader in glass bottling and aluminium cans

Has its own distribution and logistics network nationwide

Largest market share in several consumer products, eg tissue paper, snacks.

Highly volatile economic situation in Vietnam could result in operational fluctuations

Owns the largest distribution network and logistic network in Vietnam, where consumer production remain low

Has an aluminium can and grass bottle plant in Vietnam

Business in Vietnam is in the early stage; hence, business volume remains low with negligible net profit contribution currently

.

Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Company Profile Berli Jucker (BJC)’s three business lines are packaging products (glass bottles and aluminium cans), consumer products (tissue paper and snacks), and technical and healthcare products. It is an integral part of Thai Beverage’s operations.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

P/E (x) vs EPS growth

P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs)

0%

4%

7%

11%

14%

18%

21%

25%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

P/BV (x) vs ROAE

P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) 27 August 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 11

Recommendation Chart

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Aug-08 Dec-09 Mar-11 Jun-12

Price Close

NR

50.0

57.0

57.0

Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-05-20 Neutral 57.0 65.0

2013-04-02 Buy 57.0 72.8

2012-08-01 Buy 50.0 40.0

12

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation to the clients of RHB and its related companies. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice to independently evaluate the particular investments and strategies. RHB, its affiliates and related companies, their respective directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto, and may from time to time add to, or dispose off, or may be materially interested in any such securities. Further, RHB, its affiliates and related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies), as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this research report. RHB and its employees and/or agents do not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses, loss of profits or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report or further communication given in relation to this report, including where such losses, loss of profits or damages are alleged to have arisen due to the contents of such report or communication being perceived as defamatory in nature. The term “RHB” shall denote where applicable, the relevant entity distributing the report in the particular jurisdiction mentioned specifically herein below and shall refer to RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd, its holding company, affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies. All Rights Reserved. This report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior consent of RHB and RHB accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. Malaysia This report is published and distributed in Malaysia by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (233327-M), Level 11, Tower One, RHB Centre, Jalan Tun Razak, 50400 Kuala Lumpur, a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Investment Bank Berhad (RHBIB), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Singapore This report is published and distributed in Singapore by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd (Reg. No. 200808705N), a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group) and OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB”, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd may have received compensation from the company covered in this report for its corporate finance or its dealing activities; this report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 26 August 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the securities covered in this report, except for: a) - As of 26 August 2013, none of the analysts who covered the securities in this report has an interest in such securities, except for: a) - Special Distribution by RHB Where the research report is produced by an RHB entity (excluding DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd) and distributed in Singapore, it is only distributed to "Institutional Investors", "Expert Investors" or "Accredited Investors" as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, CAP. 289 of Singapore. If you are not an "Institutional Investor", "Expert Investor" or "Accredited Investor", this research report is not intended for you and you should disregard this research report in its entirety. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this research report, you are to contact our Singapore Office, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd. Hong Kong This report is published and distributed in Hong Kong by RHB OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited (“RHBSHK”) (formerly known as OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB”), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company.

13

Risk Disclosure Statements The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. RHBSHK does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report Indonesia This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Thailand This report is published and distributed in Thailand by RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Other Jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, this report is intended to be distributed to qualified, accredited and professional investors, in compliance with the law and regulations of the jurisdictions. DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage DISCLAIMERS This research is issued by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd and it is for general distribution only. It does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this research report. You should independently evaluate particular investments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities or investment instruments mentioned in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB” which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad) and Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and their associates, directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities covered in the report, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other corporate finance related services for the corporations whose securities are covered in the report. This report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 26 August 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 26 August 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) - DMG & Partners Research Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 200808705N)

Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore

Malaysia Research Office

RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd Level 11, Tower One, RHB Centre

Jalan Tun Razak Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia Tel : +(60) 3 9280 2185 Fax : +(60) 3 9284 8693

RHB OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd.

(formerly known as OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd.) 12th Floor

World-Wide House 19 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong

Tel : +(852) 2525 1118 Fax : +(852) 2810 0908

DMG & Partners

Securities Pte. Ltd. 10 Collyer Quay

#09-08 Ocean Financial Centre Singapore 049315

Tel : +(65) 6533 1818 Fax : +(65) 6532 6211

Jakarta Shanghai Phnom Penh

PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia

(formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia)

Plaza CIMB Niaga 14th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav.25 Jakarta Selatan 12920, Indonesia

Tel : +(6221) 2598 6888 Fax : +(6221) 2598 6777

RHB OSK (China) Investment Advisory Co. Ltd.

(formerly known as OSK (China) Investment Advisory Co. Ltd.)

Suite 4005, CITIC Square 1168 Nanjing West Road

Shanghai 20041 China

Tel : +(8621) 6288 9611 Fax : +(8621) 6288 9633

RHB OSK Indochina Securities Limited

(formerly known as OSK Indochina Securities Limited) No. 1-3, Street 271

Sangkat Toeuk Thla, Khan Sen Sok Phnom Penh

Cambodia Tel: +(855) 23 969 161 Fax: +(855) 23 969 171

Bangkok

RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL

(formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL) 10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower

98, North Sathorn Road, Silom Bangrak, Bangkok 10500

Thailand Tel: +(66) 862 9999 Fax : +(66) 108 0999

Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2012

ADVANC BCP DRT IRPC NOBLE QH SC SYMC TOP AOT BECL EASTW KBANK PHOL RATCH SCB THAI TSTE ASIMAR BKI EGCO KK PS ROBINS SCC TIP TTA BAFS BMCL ERW KTB PSL RS SE-ED TIPCO

BANPU BTS GRAMMY LPN PTT SAMART SIM TISCO BAY CPN HEMRAJ MCOT PTTEP SAMTEL SIS TKT BBL CSL ICC NKI PTTGC SAT SNC TMB

2S BROOK DTAC HMPRO MACO OFM S&J SSSC THRE TSC ACAP BWG DTC HTC MAKRO OGC S&P STANLY TIC TSTH AF CENTEL ECL IFEC MBK OSIHI SABINA STEC TICON TTW AIT CFRESH EE INTUCH MBKET PAP SAMCO SUC TIW TUF AKR CGS EIC ITD MFC PDI SCCC SUSCO TK TVO AMATA CHOW ESSO IVL MFEC PE SCG SVI TLUXE UAC AP CIMBT FE JAS MINT PG SCSMG SYNTEC TMT UMI ASK CK FORTH KCE MODERN PHATRA*** SFP TASCO TNITY UP ASP CM GBX KGI MTI PJW SITHAI TCAP TNL UPOIC AYUD CPALL GC KSL NBC PM SMT TCP TOG UV BEC CPF GFPT L&E NCH PR SPALI TFD TPC VIBHA BFIT CSC GL LANNA NINE PRANDA SPCG TFI TRC VNT BH DCC GLOW LH NMG PRG SPI THANA TRT WACOAL BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LRH NSI PT SPPT THCOM TRU YUASA BJC DEMCO HANA LST OCC PYLON SSF THIP TRUE ZMICO *** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

AEONTS BGT CMO GENCO JTS LHBANK NC PTL SGP SWC TPAC UT AFC BLA CNS GFM JUBILE LHK NNCL Q-CON SIAM SYNEX TPCORP VARO AGE BNC CNT GLOBAL JUTHA LIVE NTV QLT SIMAT TBSP TPIPL WAVE AH BOL CPL GOLD KASET LOXLEY OSK QTC SINGER TCB TPP WG AHC BROCK CRANE HFT KBS MAJOR PAE RASA SIRI TEAM TR WIN AI BSBM CSP HTECH KC MATCH PATO RCL SKR TF TTCL WORK AJ BTNC CSR HYDRO KDH MATI PB RICH SMIT TGCI TWFP

ALUCON BUI CTW IFS KIAT MBAX PICO ROJNA SMK THANI TYCN AMANAH CCET DRACO IHL KKC M-CHAI PL RPC SOLAR TKS UBIS APCO CEN EASON ILINK KTC MDX POST SAM SPC TMD UEC APCS CHUO EMC INET KWC MJD PPM SCBLIF SPG TMI UIC APRINT CI EPCO IRC KWH MK PREB SCP SSC TNH UMS ARIP CIG FNS IRCP KYE MOONG PRECHA SEAFCO SST TNPC UOBKH AS CIMBI*** FOCUS IT LALIN MPIC PRIN SENA STA TOPP UPF ASIA CITY FSS JMART LEE MSC PSAAP SF SVOA TPA US

*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

IOD (IOD Disclaimer)

การเปิดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบรษิัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการก ากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการด าเนินการตามนโยบายของส านักงานคณะกรรมการก ากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป็นการส ารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจดทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลกัทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผูล้งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถงึได้ ดังนั้นผลส ารวจดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการน าเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน

อนึ่ง ผลการส ารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการส ารวจ ณ วนัที่ปรากฎในรายงานการก ากับดแูละกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการส ารวจจึงอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จ ากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการส ารวจดงักล่าวแต่อย่างใด