Berlin 2015-09-04 Randers - 2052 and the Club of Rome€¦ · Club of Rome Fundraiser Berlin, September 4th, 2015 . NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL J Randers 2 The Limits to Growth (LTG):

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 1 J Randers 1


2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years:

The role of the Club of Rome Jorgen Randers

Professor Center for Climate Strategy

Norwegian Business School BI

Club of Rome Fundraiser Berlin, September 4th, 2015


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The Limits to Growth (LTG):

Twelve scenarios for the 21st century, warning against

growth beyond the carrying capacity of small planet Earth.


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A much better future is possible

1.  Solving the climate challenge is not impossibly costly

2.  It requires a shift of 2 % of the world’s labor and capital from “dirty” to “clean” sectors

3.  Sadly, it is difficult to find support for this solution


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Plan for today

1.  What is likely to happen over the next 35 years, to 2050?

2.  What needs to be done to improve on this future?

3.  What forces will work against this solution?

4.  What can be done to reduce this resistance?

5.  What should the Club of Rome do?


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2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next

Forty Years A forecast of global

development to 2052, predicting that the world will

follow the LTG pollution scenario

See www.2052.info


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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

World population will peak in 2040

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Birth rate (scale →)

Death rate (scale →)

Population (←scale)

% / yr Gpersons

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1


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World GDP growth will slow down


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60

90

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP (scale →)

G$ / yr % / yr

Long term growth rate in output per person aged 15 to 65 (←scale)

g130605j

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Gp

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Population aged 15 to 65 (scale → →)

Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce


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0

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60

90

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP

Non-discretionary spending

(repair, adaptation, mitigation)

G$ / yr

Consumption


Traditional investment

(24% of GDP)

Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment – World 1970 to 2050


More unavoidable repair and adaptation work


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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

World energy use will peak in 2040


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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World energy use (←scale)

toe / M$ Gtoe / yr

Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale →)

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G$ / yr

World GDP (scale →→)

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0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6


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0.0

1.3

2.6

3.9

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil use

Gtoe / yr

Nuclear use

Gas use

Coal use

Renewable energy use


Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052


World use of fossil fuels will peak around 2030


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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.


World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions (←scale)

tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr

Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale →) 15

Gtoe/yr

Energy use (scale →→)

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5



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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052


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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 in atmosphere (←scale)

deg C ppm

Temperature rise (scale →)

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m

Sea level rise (scale →→)

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There will be huge regional differences

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5,000

10,000

15,000

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1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

After-tax income per person (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)

US

OECD-less-US

China

World average

Rest of world

BRISE


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Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast

♣ World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052

than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis

♣ Consumption will stagnate

because society will have to spend ever more labour and capital

on repair and adaptation

♣ The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus

of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development


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What needs to be done to improve the future? 1.  Remove poverty

Both in the rich and the poor world Using traditional methods But with more respect for central planning (which provided most of the real gains since 1990)

2.  Reduce greenhouse gas emissions First in the rich world Means to reduce the use of coal, oil and gas That is, to increase energy efficiency, renewable fraction, and CO2 capture and storage (CCS) Concretely: to reduce energy intensity (energy use per GDP) and CO2 intensity (CO2 per energy use) twice as fast as during the last 40 years


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What forces will work against this solution?

1.  The incumbents in the “dirty” sectors Both workers and owners “Dirty” means energy intensive, CO2 intensive, pollution intensive, resource intensive

2.  Those who dislike high taxes and strong government They are many Some principled, some based on egoism Most based on short term perspective on societal development


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What can be done to reduce the resistance? Focus on solutions that give an advantage to a majority

of voters in the short term.

1.  Electric cars in the bus lane – to bypass the rush

2.  Rooftop solar panels – for energy independence

3.  Subsidy systems where the benefit comes first and the cost later (like financing of the Energiewende)

4.  Green stimulus packages – for more jobs

5.  Wealth tax on the top third to build low-carbon energy plant – “free” greening as seen by majority


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It is time to act!

[email protected] www.2052.info


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What should be done? - Ideally

1. Further slow population growth Introduce 1-child policy – first in rich world

2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from 2024

3. Reduce poverty in the poor world Give a climate-friendly energy system to the poor

4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate more compulsory vacation

5. Temper national short termism Establish supra-national institutions

6. Reduce the focus on income growth Establish “increased well-being” as the new goal


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What can be done? – Realistically (1 of 2)

1.  Further slow population growth ♦ Give moral support to women with < 2.1 children ♦ Increase the pension age ♦

Explain that the “support burden” will not grow 2.  Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world

♦ Subsidize energy efficiency in all sectors ♦ Build no new coal capacity in the rich world ♦ Tax coal and oil and distribute the money evenly

3.  Reduce poverty in the poor world ♦ Use most development aid to build renewable energy capacity in the developing world ♦ Copy the planned rise of Japan, South Korea and China – and their use of “strong government”


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What can be done? – Realistically (2 of 2)

4.  Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world ♦ Simplify shift from dirty to clean production = provide income security in transition

♦ Reduce production growth = reduce length of the work year, i.e. more leisure

4.  Temper national short termism ♦ Establish a global agreement where all nations promise to emit less CO2 per person than the US ♦ Evolve IPCC to “IPCC 3” (a supernational org. with funding to pay for the most effective cuts)

5.  Reduce the focus on income growth ♦ Start measuring “growth in well-being” alongside “growth in GDP”

Documents

Berlin 2015-09-04 Randers - 2052 and the Club of Rome€¦ · Club of Rome Fundraiser Berlin, September 4th, 2015 . NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL J Randers 2 The Limits to Growth (LTG):