Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
BESST CONFERENCE-TELFORD
February 23rd 2012
The Waste to Resources Economy…..
Technological, Economic and Socio-Political Interactions
to 2020
Peter Jones OBE
The Global Context-
Drivers/Outcomes
Biosphere limits
Population mix
Resource pressure
Internality costs
Producer Responsibility
Leasing systems
Scruton Economics
Resource Pressure
Commodity prices
Product redesign
Energy inputs and in life use,reclaim & obsolescence
Whole life
Scruton Economics
“Green Philosophy”
The Earth as a“home” to be preserved
Trans-generational
Non economic progress
Values measurement
Contracts with the unborn
The Three Musketeers of
Policy Implementation
ECONOMICS TECHNOLOGY ATTITUDE
Technological Evolution
Low carbon embedded and generative
Renewable and recoverable
Design for recovery & upgrades
Tracking, data, measurement and calibration
Fewer composites
Disruptive R&D in recessions
1 tonne bale
of waste floc
The Resources Hierarchy
Compost/fertiliser soil fuels
Recycling into new Materials
Pyrolysis to Carbon
Anaerobic Digestion
Gasification/steam turbine
Gasification/internal combustion
Gasification/hydrogen/fuel cells
Value by Financial and Fossil Carbon Tradeoffs
The Carbon Competitors
Long term - Handicaps - Planning Consents - Taxes - Better odds elsewhere
- Traded Permits - Renewable targets - Import dependency on rivals - Rising logistics costs - High value prizes - Improving technology
- EU targets - Energy trends - High value prizes - Traded Permits - Producer reuse
Form
Early Faller
Expensive Thoroughbred Regular Winner
Stayer Good Value All Rounder
- Low value prizes - Staying power - Plenty of local runners - Cheap setup - Soils directive - Low distribution costs
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 500 1000 1500 2000
CO2 impact/Neutrality per tonne
Eco
no
mic
s p
er
ton
ne
kgs
The Zero Waste Game
Boomerang
Note: Process emissions before net off energy
incineration
gasifier
plasma anaerobic
digestion
aerobic
composting landfill
High
High
Lo
Inside A MRF
Haase System
AD/MBT DANO Drum
Source: Greenfinch
In Vessel Composting
Capacity for 170,000 tonnes per annum
Treatment of kitchen waste/green waste
Animal By Products Order compliant using fully enclosed systems
Odour/environmental controls
Waithlands
13
Anaerobic digestion (AD) Anaerobic digestion (AD) is a method of
waste treatment that produces a gas with high methane content from organic materials.
The methane can be used to produce heat, electricity, or a combination of the two.
Land Requirements Estimated at 1 sq ft per tonne
processed.
Capital Costs
£10m - £29m for 60,000 tpa
plant
Operating Costs £28 per tonne processed
Staff Levels Dependent on unit size
Gasification Plant – Isle of
Wight
Marchwood EFW 165,000 tpa
Source: Veolia
Japanese Gasification Technologies
Kazusa, Japan, Nippon Steel,
2002, 60,000 tpa
Aomori, Japan, Ebara, 2001,
135,000 tpa (ASR)
Kawaguchi, Japan, Ebara TIFG,
2002, 125,000 tpa
Toyohashi, Japan, Mitsui R21,
2002, 120,000 tpa Source: Juniper
Plasma Furnace Configuration
18
GASIFICATION REACTOR DETAIL
Hydrogen Energy Station
Distributed Power and Hydrogen MCFC
Power
Heat
H2 H2
Purification
End User
Hydrogen Filling Stations
Money
Precrushing Unit and Hammer mill for Biomass Feedstock – German Biomass to Synthetic Transport Fuels plant
Investment Profile in Waste
Technology System Tonnes
capacity annually
Capital
£m
£ per process tonne
Windrow composting 40,000 1-2 c50-80
Mechanical separation
100,000 10 100
Anaerobic digestion 50,000 10 200
Small scale ADVANCED thermal
50-60,000 25 500
Large scale EfW 500,000 250 + 500
Medium scale EfW 120,000 60 450
Small scale gasifier/syn gas
60-80,000 50 800
The Last Technology
Standing in Waste?
Lowest Carbon Footprint= low tax exposure
Highest Gj energetic conversion equivalence
Highest sales value per exit Gj.
= Highest bidder for feedstock.
Timing the Landfill Transition
2007
1997 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Tonnes to Landfill
(millions)
£ Gate
Fee
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
WHERE ARE THE MARKETS?
Energy as gas, heat, light ,transport fuel, steam and cooling =£ 120 billion-8% of UK GDP
Recycling 30 million tonnes = £ 4 billion- 3% of GDP
Composting 4 million tonnes =£100 million – 0.08% of GDP
Landfill Mining?????
Overall location maps for each waste
technology - Organics
26
Every day Britain throws away
Source: WRAP & The
Independent
1.6 M
Bananas
5,500
Chickens 5.1 M
Potatoes 1.3 M
Yoghurts
220,000
Loaves of Bread
660,000
Eggs
1.2 M
Sausages
Retail Value - Energy, Compost
and Fertiliser in AWM Region Retail Value of Relevant Commodities (£10.00 Billion)
Heat
2,024,218,199
20%
Electricity
2,460,782,618
24%
Transport Fuel
5,537,817,091
55%
Compost
4,096,606
0%
Fertiliser
50,797,172
1%
Assumed Retail Values
Domestic Commercial
Electricity (p/kWh) 11.98 6.17
Heat (p/kWh) 3.19 1.99
Fuel (£/litre) 1.18 1.24
Peat Compost (£/m3)
Fertiliser (£/tonne)
15
470
Source: SLR/AWM
The Lights Go Out???
Source: DTI
Meeting the Energy Challenge
0
200
100
Each wedge = 17 TWh
5000 x 500kW CHP units
+18% fuel economy for all cars
4 x 800 MW nuclear reactors
2500 x 500kW biomass CHP
5000 x 2MW wind turbines
200 million X 1m2 PV panels
1 Severn Barrage
10% transport biofuels
TWhr
2006 2020
The Regional Route Map
Define the energy sink
That defines the energy need
That defines the technology
That defines the „fuel‟ mix
That defines the logistics
That defines the collection discipline
What are “Good” Fossil
Substitution Sinks? Food –freezing,preparation+retail
Diversified industrial estates
Hospitals
Prisons
Bus and truck complexes
Docks and Airports and Distribution
Data centres
Energy distribution pipes and wires
Confectionery factories
Sewage plants
Road fuel distribution depots
Industrial gases operations
Resource Super Centres
CHP 2-25 MwE
Logistics depot
Recyclate warehouse
Enclosed composting
Adjacent reprocessing and remanufacture
Source: Labour Market Trends & UK National Accounts (The Blue Book)
Costs for Producer
Responsibility
Co
st
as
va
lue
% r
eta
il s
up
po
rt
Thousand tonnes output
50
20
10
5
250 500 1,000 2,000 8,000
Glass
containers
Paper &
board
Cars Plastics
Tyres
Fridges
Brown
goods
Structural Shifts in the “waste”
Sector
New entrants attracted by new exit routes & technologies
Balance sheet strengths-weaknesses
Shift from disposal to managed exits
Added value shift from gate fees to output sales
Removal of PFIs- Risk treatment
Ripple out to wider “energy” markets
2014-2015 The Perfect Storm
Landfill Diversion of organics
Carbon Reduction Commitment bites
120 fewer Landfills
Ongoing coal and nuclear non replacement - Brownouts
Evidential climate chaos ?
Green Investment Bank
EU Resource Efficiency and IPP Agenda
Recession Ends
Why is there an Investment
Hiatus in Waste?
Innovation Risk comprises those on-
………Feedstock supply
………Site and Land
………Technology
……..Exit markets for output
……..Funding
THERE IS NO PLc with a singular approach to these risks and we are ignoring the scale of sewerage sites!
New Alliances in Carbon
Efficiency
Solutions &
ESCOs
• Technology Skills
• Grid Backup
• Grid Inputs
• Regulatory Risk
• Infrastructure
Energy Suppliers
• Contracts
• Locations
• Economic Role in Communities
• Carbon CSR Agenda
• Forward Price Uncertainty
Electrical & Heat Users
• Rising Gate Fees
• Process Technology
• Conditioning Technology
• Supply Chain
• Strong Balance Sheets
Waste & Resource Logistics
Technology Suppliers
GOVERNMENT ACTION-the
Dream
Online Data Management
A Simple Renewable Energy Strategy…..Gj Tax on inputs + CO2 Emissions Tax on Power plants
Auction Major Sewerage assets as part of OFT Review
Landfill Bans
Integrated Ministerial approaches.
Planning Methodology
Government Actions-the
Reality
DECC in the lead,DEFRA,DCLG&BISS
Arbitrary changes on solar FITs.
Old McDonalds Farm & the 27
Historical locational approach
Planning
Multi Departmental axes.
Legal Definitions+Protocols
Environmental KTN
