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HEDGEYE 1
BEST IDEA: LONG WHITEWAVE FOODS (WWAV) June 18, 2015
HOWARD PENNEY
HANG 10 ON THIS WAVE
HEDGEYE 2
DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice for individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management’s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management’s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied.
TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more details please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at www.hedgeye.com
DISCLAIMER
HEDGEYE 4
KEY POINTS
A PORTFOLIO OF STRONG ON-TREND BRANDS WWAV is built on the strength of its brands, all of which hold a #1 or #2 position in their category. WWAV operates in on-trend categories that are front and center to todays consumer. The plant-based segment is largely under penetrated but is starting to gain broader consumer acceptance. WWAV is at the helm, and we are confident they will drive growth and penetration, while maintaining their share of the category.
PLATFORMS BUILT FOR ACQUISITIONS WWAV has clear platforms that are built for acquisitions, Plant-based Foods and Beverages, Creamers, Premium Dairy, Organic Greens & Produce and now Plant-based Nutrition, all are capable of tack on acquisitions. They have proven they are actively looking, announcing a deal in every year since the spin-off from Dean Foods.
In our research in the consumer space it is hard to find a Board of Directors with more relatable experience than WWAV’s. Additionally, their management comes from their old parent company Dean Foods, which gives them strong experience to deploy in such a young company.
2
3 STRONG EXPERIENCED MANAGEMENT AND BOARD
1
ORIGINAL LONG THESIS STILL HOLDS TRUE
HEDGEYE 6
• WWAV’s on-trend category, volume growth and earnings potential are best in class ― In FY2014 WWAV experienced robust growth on the top and bottom line. We strongly believe that their brands are
underpenetrated and have more room to run. Brands currently averaging below 30% household penetration across the board
• We believe margin expansion will continue, as the company benefits from fixed cost leverage, favorable product mix and increased internal manufacturing capabilities
― They made a big push in FY14 increasing operating margins by 90 basis points exceeding their goal of 75 basis points, while increasing marketing investments at double-digit rates. WWAV started off FY15 in Q1 with a strong 57 basis point improvement as they continue to leverage their supply chain manufacturing capabilities
• Horizon center-of-store expansion ― On track to deliver expectations, management is going with a strong beachhead approach to this launch, building it up in their
highest ACV markets, and expanding outward from there
• Household penetration remains low ― As mentioned above, household penetration has plenty of room to grow as consumers are getting more and more focused on
what they put in their bodies and the affect that has on the environment
• Continuously beating guidance ― It has been an impressive run, management has consistently raised guidance following positive performance (which they have
every quarter), and still beating it out on a quarterly basis
ORIGINAL LONG CALL ON 4/11/14 THEY HAVE BEEN EXECUTING ON OUR THESIS ― WE DON’T SEE AN END TO THIS GROWTH IN SIGHT
HEDGEYE 7
UP ~83% SINCE OUR LONG CALL ― THERE IS STILL ROOM TO RUN
PERFORMANCE SINCE 4/11/14
Data Source: FactSet.
Competitive Set: • General Mills (GIS) • Kraft Foods (KRFT) • Nestle SA (NESN-CH) • Hain Celestial (HAIN) • Monster Beverage (MNST) • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) • Danone SA (BN-FR)
183
106
116
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
(INDEX) WhiteWave Foods Company - Price (INDEX) Index:WWAV Comp Set - Price (INDEX) S&P 500 - Price
HEDGEYE 8
ADDITIONS TO LONG THESIS DON’T LET THESE ADDITIONS TAKE AWAY YOUR FOCUS ON THE ORIGINAL, BECAUSE THOSE STILL HOLD TRUE!
• Growth through acquisitions ― string of pearls approach • Earthbound, So Delicious, Vega ― Who could be next? We have some ideas…
• Geographic expansion • JV in China is just the beginning ― through 2014 and into Q1 2015 expanded distribution into
Canada and Mexico, but is still largely underdeveloped ― South America is completely untapped!
• Brand creation ― You don’t always have to buy brands to enter new categories • Yulu, a premium Australian style yogurt offering, expanding reach within the fast growing yogurt
category
• Strength of management team • I believe we understated what this means for the company in our original thesis, the experience
that they carry can not be underestimated
1
2
3
4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
HEDGEYE 10
• The WhiteWave Foods Company is a consumer packaged food and beverage company that manufactures, markets, distributes and sells branded plant-based foods and beverages, coffee creamers and beverages, premium dairy products and organic produce throughout North America and Europe.
― WWAV also holds a 49% interest in a JV in partnership with Mengniu Dairy Company Limited that manufactures, markets, distributes and sells branded plant-based beverages in China under the Silk brand
• Three Reportable Segments:
1. Americas Foods & Beverages:
― Silk, So Delicious, Horizon Organic, Vega (pending), International Delight and Land O Lakes
2. Americas Fresh Foods:
― Earthbound Farm
3. Europe Foods & Beverages:
― Alpro and Provamel
• Headquartered in Denver, Colorado; 4,500 employees
• Very strong management team coupled by a small board (only six members) with industry experience, we believe this allows them to be nimble and act quickly, given there are not so many cooks in the kitchen
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Data Source: Company filings.
HEDGEYE 11
BECOMING A GLOBAL COMPANY
HEDGEYE 12
FINANCIAL SUMMARY SPENDING WISELY ― INVESTING IN THE FUTURE
Data Source: Company filings, FactSet.
($ in millions except per share information)
General Mills (GIS) Financials
Last Price (as of 6/17/2015) $48.98
% of 52 week high 98%
Shares Outstanding 175
Market Capitalization $8,576
- Cash $31
+ Debt $1,528
+ Minority Interest $0
Enterprise Value $10,074
Fiscal Year End December 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar '15 LTM
Revenue $2,026 $2,289 $2,542 $3,437 $3,518
Growth (%) 13.0% 11.1% 35.2% 2.4%
EBITDA $201 $218 $288 $406 $414
Margin(%) 9.9% 9.5% 11.3% 11.8% 11.8%
Growth (%) 8.6% 31.8% 41.0% 2.0%
Net Income $131 $111 $99 $140 $141
Growth (%) (15.0%) (11.0%) 41.6% 0.7%
EPS $0.72 $0.74 $0.74 $0.99 $1.01
Growth (%) 2.8% 0.0% 33.8% 2.0%
Cash From Operations $241 $237 $185 $285 $281
Cash Flow Per Share $0.66 $0.87 $0.30 ($0.04) ($0.21)
Free Cash Flow $114 $134 $53 ($8) ($38)
Net Changes in Cash $23 ($28) $32 ($51) ($28)
HEDGEYE 13
FY2014 REVENUE / SOP BY SEGMENT
$3,437 million FY2014 Net Sales
FY2014 Revenue by Segment FY2014 Segment Operating Profit
Data Source: Company filings.
Americas Foods & Beverages
68%
Americas Fresh Foods
17%
Europe Foods & Beverages
15%
$365 million FY2014 SOP
Americas Foods & Beverages
73%
Americas Fresh Foods
13%
Europe Foods & Beverages
14%
HEDGEYE 14
PRODUCT MIX OVER TIME Product Mix at Time of IPO Current Product Mix
Data Source: Company filings. (1) FY2014 sales estimated to include acquisition of Vega (still pending).
North America Coffee Creamers and Beverages
36%
North America Premium Dairy
24%
North America Plant-based Food
and Beverages 24%
Europe Plant-based Food and
Beverages 16%
$2,289 million FY2012 Net Sales $3,537 million FY2014E(1) Net Sales
Coffee Creamers and Beverages
28%
Premium Dairy 18%
NA Plant-based Food and
Beverages 20%
EU Plant-based Food and
Beverages 15%
Organic Greens and Produce
16%
Plant-based Nutrition
3%
RECENT PERFORMANCE
HEDGEYE 16
HANDILY BEATING THE COMPETITION SINCE IPO
3-YEAR PRICE PERFORMANCE
Data Source: FactSet.
Competitive Set: • General Mills (GIS) • Kraft Foods (KRFT) • Nestle SA (NESN-CH) • Hain Celestial (HAIN) • Monster Beverage (MNST) • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) • Danone SA (BN-FR)
Performance Versus: • Peers: +102.17% • S&P 500: +71.17%
279
138
163
50
100
150
200
250
300
06/05/12 12/05/12 06/05/13 12/05/13 06/05/14 12/05/14 06/05/15
Ind
ex P
rice
(INDEX) WhiteWave Foods Company (INDEX) WWAV Comp Set (INDEX) S&P 500
HEDGEYE 17
ONCE SETTLED INTO THE PUBLIC MARKETS THEY HAVEN’T LOOKED BACK
2-YEAR PRICE PERFORMANCE
Data Source: FactSet.
275
119 130
50
100
150
200
250
300
06/05/13 12/05/13 06/05/14 12/05/14 06/05/15
Ind
ex P
rice
(INDEX) WhiteWave Foods Company (INDEX) WWAV Comp Set (INDEX) S&P 500
Competitive Set: • General Mills (GIS) • Kraft Foods (KRFT) • Nestle SA (NESN-CH) • Hain Celestial (HAIN) • Monster Beverage (MNST) • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) • Danone SA (BN-FR)
Performance Versus: • Peers: +131.09% • S&P 500: +111.54%
HEDGEYE 18
IN A CHOPPY CONSUMER ENVIRONMENT THEY APPEAR UNSCATHED
1-YEAR PRICE PERFORMANCE
Data Source: FactSet.
145
104 108
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
06/05/14 09/05/14 12/05/14 03/05/15 06/05/15
Ind
ex P
rice
(INDEX) WhiteWave Foods Company (INDEX) WWAV Comp Set (INDEX) S&P 500
Competitive Set: • General Mills (GIS) • Kraft Foods (KRFT) • Nestle SA (NESN-CH) • Hain Celestial (HAIN) • Monster Beverage (MNST) • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) • Danone SA (BN-FR)
Performance Versus: • Peers: +39.4% • S&P 500: +34.26
HEDGEYE 19
HISTORICAL SALES PERFORMANCE
Data Source: Factset, Hedgeye Research. (1) Excludes LTM – Mar ’15 period.
$1,821 $2,026
$2,289 $2,542
$3,437 $3,518
$3,806
$4,118
$4,447
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 LTM - Mar '15 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
$ in
millio
ns
HEDGEYE 20
CONSISTENT LOW DOUBLE-DIGIT ORGANIC GROWTH
ORGANIC VS REPORTED GROWTH
• Strong organic growth over time complimented by strategic acquisitions
• Another important thing to note here is that although they are acquiring big companies, it does not distract management from driving growth in their core business
9% 10% 10% 12%
36% 36% 34% 34%
13%
9% 10% 10%
12% 12% 11%
12% 11% 10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15
Sales YoY % Chg - Reported Sales YoY % Chg - Organic
Data Source: Company filings.
HEDGEYE 21
GROWING INTO THEIR FIXED ASSETS
STRONG SALES LEADING TO MARGIN EXPANSION
• As volumes accelerate, WWAV has been able to maximize utilization rates to gain leverage on their supply chain
• Squeezing out margin on a quarterly basis
Net Sales Adjusted Operating Income
11% Organic Growth Net Sales CAGR(2) 21% Organic Operating Income CAGR(2)
($ in millions) ($ in millions / % margin)
Data Source: Company filings, Net sales is presented on a pro forma adj. basis for 2012; operating income is presented on a pro forma adj. basis for 2012 and on an adjusted basis for 2013 and 2014. (1) Estimated provided by Consensus Metrix. (2) Organic CAGR represents 2012 to 2014.
$2,306 $2,542
$3,437
$3,809
2012 2013 2014 2015E
$173
$209
$304
$369
2012 2013 2014 2015E
29% CAGR
18% CAGR
7.5%
8.2%
8.8%
9.7%
(1) (1)
HEDGEYE 22
HISTORICAL EBITDA PERFORMANCE
Data Source: Factset, Consesnsus Metrix, Hedgeye Research. (1) Excludes LTM – Mar ’15 period.
$152
$201 $218
$288
$406 $414
$488
$569
$655
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 LTM - Mar '15 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
$ in
millio
ns
HEDGEYE 23
HISTORICAL EPS PERFORMANCE
Data Source: Factset, Consensus Metrix, Hedgeye Research. (1) Excludes LTM – Mar ’15 period.
$0.53
$0.72 $0.74 $0.74
$0.99 $1.01
$1.15
$1.37
$1.60
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 LTM - Mar '15 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
$ in
millio
ns
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
HEDGEYE 25
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
06/30/2005 06/30/2006 06/29/2007 06/30/2008 06/30/2009 06/30/2010 06/30/2011 06/29/2012 06/28/2013 06/30/2014
U Mich Consumer Index 3 Month Moving Average 6 Month Moving Average
Data Source: University of Michigan, FactSet. Updated on 6/16/2015.
HEDGEYE 26
U.S. PERSONAL INCOME YOY SA
-5.00
-3.00
-1.00
1.00
3.00
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00 US Personal Income 3 Month Moving Average 6 Month Moving Average
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, FactSet. Updated on 6/16/2015.
WWAV SENTIMENT
HEDGEYE 28
SHORT INTEREST SHORT INTEREST HAS RECEDED
Data Source: FactSet. Updated on 6/16/2015.
HEDGEYE 29
ANALYST RATINGS SELL-SIDE IS BULLISH, BUT BUY RATINGS ARE RETRACTING SLIGHTLY
Data Source: FactSet. Updated on 6/16/2015.
HEDGEYE 30
EARNINGS REVISIONS FY-1 EPS CONSENSUS ESTIMATE VS STOCK PRICE
Data Source: FactSet. Updated on 6/16/2015.
HEDGEYE 31
VALUATION 1 YEAR NTM EV/EBITDA
Current: 18.9x (6/15/15) High: 19.5x (5/27/15) Low: 13.8x (1/14/15) Average: 15.9x
Data Source: FactSet. Updated on 6/16/2015.
NTM
EV/
EBIT
DA M
ultip
le
CREATION OF WWAV
HEDGEYE 33
HOW DID WWAV COME TO BE? • White Wave Inc. was founded in September 1977 by Steve Demos in Boulder, Colorado
― In 1976, after a trip to India, he was at a 76-day meditation retreat in California, where he came up with the idea to start a tofu company called White Wave. Shortly after, he got a $2,000 loan and rented 300 sq. ft. in Boulder, CO
― In 1978, soymilk was introduced and more than 20 years later in 2002 he sold the business to Dean Foods
• In 2001, Suiza Foods acquired Dean Foods assuming the Dean name, but Demos wanted nothing to do with Suiza demanding to be able to run his brand autonomously. This request was granted, but unexpectedly in 2005 Steve was fired. Many think he was more popular than the CEO and Chairman, so that may have led to his demise at the company
• WhiteWave Foods was formed by Dean Foods spinning off a select group of assets into an independent company in 2012
• In October 2012, WWAV completed their IPO on the NYSE
• In 2013, Dean Foods completed its spin-off of WhiteWave into an independent company in two transactions:
1. May 23, 2013, Dean distributed Class A & B shares to stockholders as a pro rata dividend
2. July 25, 2013, Dean Foods disposed of all of its remaining shares of WhiteWave capital stock in a registered public offering
• After the separation was complete, WWAV acquired three businesses; Earthbound Farms, So Delicious and Vega (pending)
Data Source: Hedgeye Research.
HEDGEYE 34
THE CREATION OF WWAV A STRING OF PEARLS
As part of Dean Foods Company As part of WhiteWave
2002 2004
(White Wave Inc)
Spin off
2000 2012 2013 2015 2009
• Dean Foods did a great job in assembling a premier portfolio built for growth. The management at WhiteWave Foods has continued this tradition with very on-trend acquisitions in Earthbound Farm, So delicious and Vega (pending)
― These most recent acquisitions build out their portfolio with brands that are #1 in their respective segments. Additionally, they provide a stronger platform for more accretive acquisitions down the road
Data Source: Company Filings. (1) Announcement Year, closed in January 2014.
2014
(Pending Approval)
(licensed)
(1)
HEDGEYE 35
THE WHITEWAVE FOODS COMPANY ACQUIRES EARTHBOUND FARM
Deal Overview Financials
Strategic Rationale
Company Overviews
Data Source: Hedgeye Research, Company Filings, FactSet.
• On January 2, 2014, WWAV completed its acquisition of Earthbound Farm for $600 million, one month after the announcement in early December 2013
• Earthbound Farm offers a broad range of organic fresh foods such as salads and frozen fruits
• $0.07 EPS accretion was expected at the time of the deal for 2014
— Pro forma leverage near ~3.2x at time of the deal
• The business will be run by experienced industry professional Kevin Yost
• Majority owner Kainos Capital (formerly HM Capital Partners) originally acquired 80% of Earthbound in 2010
• Earthbound Farm was founded by Drew and Myra Goodman in 1984, and was led by CEO Charles Sweat from 2009 to its sale in 2014
• Produces and distributes branded plant-based foods beverages, coffee creamers and beverages, premium dairy products and organic produce throughout North America and Europe
• March 2015 LTM Sales: $3,518mm
• EBITDA: $414mm (11.76% margin)
• HQ in Denver, CO; 4,500 employees
• Founded in 2012
• Offers a broad range of market-leading organic produce options and other organic foods
• January 2014 LTM net sales: $500mm
• HQ: San Juan Bautista, CA
• Founded in 1984
• WWAV funded the acquisition with borrowings under existing credit facilities
• Gives WWAV the two most popular gateways to enter organic category: produce & dairy
• Industry-leading brand, with significant consumer loyalty
• Earthbound Farm is a perfect fit for WWAV, as they are both rooted in small beginnings, and are both pioneers in the organic foods business
• Significant potential for brand expansion across categories
• The transaction gives WWAV the top seat in the organic produce business in the country, and it gives Earthbound Farm the ability to reach its original goal: getting good organic food to as many people as possible
Select Product Portfolio
HEDGEYE 36
THE WHITEWAVE FOODS COMPANY ACQUIRES SO DELICIOUS
Deal Overview Financials
Strategic Rationale
Company Overviews
Data Source: Hedgeye Research, Company Filings, FactSet.
• On October 31, 2014, WWAV completed its acquisition of So Delicious for $195mm
― The acquisition agreement was announced in early September 2014
• So Delicious offers a wide variety of non-dairy, plant-based alternatives. All products are 100% plant based and many are Non-GMO Project verified, gluten free and organic. Their product lines vary from coffee creamers and nut-based milks to frozen desserts and dairy free culinary products
• So Delicious was founded in 1987 by Mark Brawerman
• Number one in dairy-free ice cream, dairy-free yogurt, and dairy-free creamer
• Produces and distributes branded plant-based foods beverages, coffee creamers and beverages, premium dairy products and organic produce throughout North America and Europe
• March 2015 LTM Sales: $3,518mm
• EBITDA: $414mm (11.76% margin)
• HQ in Denver, CO; 4,500 employees
• Founded in 2012
• Offers a broad range of market-leading plant-based drinks, ice creams, frozen novelties and coffee creamers.
• October 2014 LTM Net Sales: $115mm
• HQ: Eugene, OR
• Founded in 1987
• WWAV funded the acquisition through its cash balance and available credit
Select Product Portfolio
• Additional plant-based brand, that is transferable across categories
• So Delicious is the leading plant-based ice cream brand, adding another number one brand to WWAV’s portfolio
• Expands yogurt and creamers portfolio, So Delicious has well developed coconut & almond yogurts
• So Delicious is a perfect fit for WWAV, as they follow the same health awareness initiatives, such as the Non-GMO Project. Both businesses offer several organic products as well
HEDGEYE 37
THE WHITEWAVE FOODS COMPANY AGREES TO ACQUIRE VEGA
Deal Overview Financials
Strategic Rationale
Company Overviews
Data Source: Hedgeye Research, Company Filings, FactSet
• On June 10, 2015 WWAV announced that it has agreed to acquire Vega for $550 million in cash
• Vega offers a broad range of plant-based nutrition products ― primarily powdered shakes and snack bars ― containing nutrient dense, superfoods in the United States and Canada
• Vega majority owners were Charles Chang (founder) and VMG Partners
― VMG originally invested in 2012, acquiring a 30% stake
• The transaction will be EPS neutral in 2015 and is expected to be at least $0.06 accretive to WWAV’s adjusted EPS in 2016, excluding certain transaction and other related expenses
• Transaction expected to close in the 3Q FY15, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions
• Produces and distributes branded plant-based foods beverages, coffee creamers and beverages, premium dairy products and organic produce throughout North America and Europe
• March 2015 LTM Sales: $3,518mm
• EBITDA: $414mm (11.76% margin)
• HQ in Denver, CO; 4,500 employees
• Founded in 2012
• Offers a broad range of market-leading plant-based nutrition products including: powdered shakes, snack bars, seeds and dietary supplements
• June LTM 2015 Net Sales: $100mm
• HQ: Burnaby, BC
• Founded in 2004
• WWAV intends to fund the acquisition under its existing $1 billion revolving credit facility, which is virtually untapped
Select Product Portfolio
• Vega is the leader in plant-based nutrition products, further bolstering WWAV’s stable of #1 brands
• This is a natural fit for WhiteWave’s portfolio and will allow for best practice sharing across both companies within the plant-based foods segment
• Allows WWAV to extend its plant-based offerings into nutritional supplements
• Vega’s growth momentum, coupled by its attractive margin profile and related financial benefits are cited by management as strong reasons to do the deal at this high of a multiple (5.5x sales)
Enterprise Value Sales Multiple
$550mm 5.50x
STRONG LEADERSHIP
HEDGEYE 39
Gregg Engles: Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO
― Former Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO of Dean Foods Company (1994-2012). Serves on the Board of Trustees at Dartmouth College, and on the Board of Directors of the Grocery Manufacturers Association.
Kelly Haecker: CFO
― Joined WhiteWave Foods Operating Company in 2006. Prior to WWAV Kelly held various senior level roles at The Gillette Company, Mother’s-Archway Cookie Company and Specialty Foods Corp.
Blaine McPeak: EVP and President, Americas Foods & Beverages
― Joined WhiteWave Foods in 2007 as the President of Horizon Organic. Before WWAV, Blaine worked for Kellogg’s and Sara Lee.
Bernard Deryckere: EVP and CEO, Europe Foods & Beverages
― As part of the Alpro acquisition (he was the CEO), Bernard joined WWAV to lead the European business. Director of Belgilux Association of Branded Products & Flemish Chamber of Commerce. President of the European Natural Soy Foods Manufacturers Association and the Belgian Food Industry Federation.
STRONG MANAGEMENT TEAM YOUNG EXECUTIVES LEADING THE COMPANY IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
Kevin Yost: EVP and President, Americas Fresh Foods
― Joined WhiteWave in 2014 to lead the Earthbound Farms business. Previously employed by Dean Foods Company, Saputo’s dairy foods division and had a stint in consulting, where he led private equity-owned companies.
Edward Fugger: EVP, Strategy and Corporate Development
― Edward joined Dean Foods in 2004 as VP of Corporate Development, and through the spinoff in 2012 became part of the WWAV team. Prior to Dean Foods he was an MD at Bear, Sterns & Co. Inc.
Roger Theodoredis: EVP, General Counsel
― Roger Theodoredis joined WWAV in 2005 as a Senior Vice President and General Counsel. Previously he was employed at Bristol-Myers Squibb, during his time there he led counsel for Mead Johnson Nutrition, now its own standalone public company.
Thomas Zanetich: EVP, Human Resources
― Tommy joined WhiteWave in 2006 as Senior Vice President, Human Resources. Prior to WWAV he served as VP of HR for Kraft/Nabisco and General Foods.
With an average age of 53 this is a management team that still has time left in their career to create meaningful value.
Data Source: Company filings.
HEDGEYE 40
Gregg Engles: Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO
― Former Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO of Dean Foods Company (1994-2012). Serves on the Board of Trustees of Dartmouth College, and on the Board of Directors of the Grocery Manufacturers Association.
Joseph Hardin: Lead Director
― On the Board since 2012. Former Wal-Mart Executive, Dean Foods Executive. Served on the Board of Dean Foods from 1998 to 2013.
Stephen Green
― On the Board since 2012. Corporate Finance GE Capital, Dean Foods BoD (1994 to 2013). The Active Network, Inc BoD (2001 to 2013). Current Board member of Caris Life Sciences.
Doreen Wright
― On the Board since 2012. Dean Foods BoD (2009-2013). Current Director of Crocs, and New Hope Arts. Served on several other BoD’s and has been in management.
BOARD OF DIRECTORS A BOARD WITH EXPERIENCE
Michelle Goolsby
― On the board since 2012. Has been a partner of Greenmont Capital partners, which focuses on investments in the natural product category. Previously held several senior management roles at Dean Foods from 1998 to 2008.
Mary Ellen Minnick
― On the Board since 2012. Current Partner of Lion Capital a private investment firm since 2008. Held several executive positions for The Coca-Cola Company from 1983 to 2007. On the current BoD for Target Corporation, and the current Advisory Board of Heineken.
Small, Nimble, experienced group of board members ready to carry this company forward
Data Source: Company filings.
PORTFOLIO BUILT FOR CONSUMERS
HEDGEYE 42
MISSION PREDICATED ON PUTTING THE CONSUMER FIRST
CHANGING THE WAY
THE WORLD EATS FOR
THE BETTER
Convenient
Flavorful
Responsibly Produced
Nutritious
Innovative
Great Tasting
Data Source: Company filings.
HEDGEYE 43
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL IN HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION
While WWAV’s brands are well known, they are still largely under penetrated across the U.S.
LARGE CATEGORY LEADING BRANDS
Data Source: Company filing. Household Penetration IRI and Nielsen Panel Data, Coffee Creamers includes Half & Half, Dairy and non-dairy creamers.
Organic Packaged
Salad
Organic Milk
14%
28% 31%
36%
Plant-based Beverages
Flavored Coffee
Creamers
WWAV BY BUSINESS SEGMENT
HEDGEYE 45
AMERICAS FOODS & BEVERAGES
PLANT-BASED FOODS AND BEVERAGES, COFFEE CREAMERS AND BEVERAGES, PREMIUM DAIRY
• Within the segment there are three sub segments: Plant-based foods & beverages (Silk and So Delicious), Organic dairy (Horizon), Coffee creamers (International Delight, Land O Lakes) all of which hold a #1 or #2 position in the category
• Utilize nine manufacturing facilities and three co-packers in the U.S., in 2014 70% of product volume was manufactured internally
• Consumers are starting to focus more on what they are putting in their bodies, with the recent acquisition of Vega, WWAV is one step closer to having a plant-based item for every occasion
Overview Organic Net Sales Growth(1)
Products Management Commentary “We recently began expanding the Horizon brand beyond the dairy case with great-tasting healthy kids' meals and snacks that moms can feel good about.” –Gregg Engles, CEO “The strategic rationale of this [Vega] acquisition is compelling… [it] provides us with an entry into the high-growth nutritionals category.” –Gregg Engles, CEO
Data Source: Company filings. (1) Excludes Vega financials.
10% 10%
8%
11% 10%
8%
10% 10% 10%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Org
an
ic N
et
Sa
les
Gro
wth
$ in
mil
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Organic Net Sales Organic Net Sales Growth
HEDGEYE 46
PLANT-BASED FOODS AND BEVERAGES
Overview Reported Net Sales Growth
Products Management Commentary
• Deep heritage at both of these brands, Silk founded in 1977 and So Delicious in 1987, acquired in 2002 and 2014, respectively
• The category is far beyond soy, which is where it found its roots, now in cashews, almonds, coconuts, etc.
• Silk #1 market leader in plant-based beverages: ― 74% share of soy ― 51% share of nut-based ― 65% share of coconut
• So Delicious the #1 market leader in dairy-free yogurts and dairy-free ice cream
“[We] believe plant-based foods and beverages are a significant global opportunity that is in the early stages of broad consumer acceptance, which we view as a vast opportunity for future growth” –Gregg Engles, CEO “Our plant-based beverages are all non-GMO, gluten-free, with fewer calories and fat” –Gregg Engles, CEO
Data Source: Company filings. Nielsen xAOC brand and market share positions as of the 13 weeks ended 3.28.15.
14% 13% 15%
14% 14% 13%
9%
21% 20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15
Org
an
ic N
et
Sa
les
Gro
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$ in
mil
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Plant-based Food and Beverages Net Sales YoY Change
HEDGEYE 47
OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT
POWER OF SILK
• Targeting milk households
• Adding new consumer targets
• Broadening usage occasions
• Expanding categories
PLANT-BASED BEVERAGES HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION
FUTURE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
18%
21% 24%
27%
31%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
+13 pts
+4 pts
Data Source: Company filings. Household penetration IRI & Nielsen Panel Data, 2015 CAGNY Presentation.
HEDGEYE 48
FROZEN DESSERT GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Data Source: Nielsen xAOC calendar year 2014.
Dairy-Free % of Category Frozen Ice Cream and Novelties
2014 Growth Rates
7.5%
0.6%
Total milk Total frozen ice cream and novelties
0%
15%
Dairy Dairy-free
Sizeable growth potential
HEDGEYE 49
SO DELICIOUS ― STRONG PRESENCE ACROSS CATEGORIES
Data Source: Pictures taken on 6/12/14 at Whole Foods in White Plains, NY.
Dairy-Free Frozen Dairy-Free Drinks Dairy-Free Yogurt
HEDGEYE 50
COFFEE CREAMERS AND BEVERAGES
Overview Reported Net Sales Growth
Brands | Products Management Commentary
• International Delight was the first flavored, non-dairy liquid creamer, established in 1980 and acquired in 1997
• In addition to International Delight and Land O Lake, So Delicious and Silk participate in this category as a brand expansion
• Strong even growth has been seen in the business over the last few quarters after a tough Q2 FY14
• The introduction of Dunkin’ Donuts creamers in Q1 2014 have been performing well and they continue to innovate on the business by adding new flavors
“Our creamers platform has delivered double-digit compound annual growth over the past couple of years behind volume growth in the refrigerated flavored creamer category” –Gregg Engles, CEO “Our International Delight brand has been bringing the coffee house experience to people where they want it and customizing how they want it.” –Gregg Engles, CEO
Data Source: Company filings.
12% 11%
10%
13%
9%
5%
9% 11% 11%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15
Org
an
ic N
et
Sa
les
Gro
wth
$ in
mil
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ns
Coffee Creamers and Beverages Net Sales YoY Change
HEDGEYE 51
PREMIUM DAIRY
Overview Reported Net Sales Growth
Brand | Products Management Commentary
• Horizon Organic practically started the organic dairy movement over 20 years ago, and then was acquired by Dean Foods in 2004
• #1 organic dairy brand ― 4x the next closest competitor
• Recently this segment has been hit with supply issues given the high demand and long lead teams to creating organic cows
― Resulting in WWAV having to take pricing, but that hasn’t hampered growth as consumers are willing to pay a premium
― As you see to the right, pricing has been the main contributor to growth in the recent top line performance
• Leveraging the brand beyond dairy starting in 2014, launching mac n’ cheese, fruit snacks and lunch box pouches. To date, these products have seen strong results but not making a meaningful impact to the bottom line yet
Data Source: Company filings. Nielsen xAOC brand position as of 3.28.15.
“Our premium dairy platform has delivered double-digit top-line growth over the past few quarters, as demand for organic milk is at historical highs.” –Gregg Engles, CEO “Horizon participates in growth categories. It holds a strong leadership position in the vibrant organic milk category.” –Gregg Engles, CEO
6%
7%
4%
5%
8% 8%
13% 13%
15%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15
Org
an
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et
Sa
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Gro
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$ in
mil
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Premium Dairy Net Sales YoY Change
HEDGEYE 52
AMERICAS FRESH FOODS
ORGANIC GREENS AND PRODUCE Overview Reported Net Sales Growth
Products Management Commentary
Data Source: Company filings.
“Earthbound is the largest organic produce brand in North America with a leading 54% share in branded organic packaged salads.” –Gregg Engles, CEO “Earthbound Farm[’s] mission is [to] make healthy, fresh food simple and accessible.”–Gregg Engles, CEO
5%
-8%
-3%
3%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
$125
$130
$135
$140
$145
$150
$155
Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Org
an
ic N
et
Sa
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Gro
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$ in
mil
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Organic Greens and Produce Net Sales % Change
• Earthbound Farm was acquired in January 2014
• Expanded WWAV’s presence on the perimeter of the store in the produce section
• Earthbound Farms holds the #1 market share in organic packaged salad, where there is strong category growth (14% YoY) versus the total salad category (11% YoY), organics share of the total now stands at 25%
• Recent performance has been hampered due to weather conditions in the Southwest, and WWAV choosing not to ship sub par product
• Since acquisition, WWAV has continued to take costs out of the business and increase profit margins
• The WWAV team is also working on implementing SAP by 2H FY15, which will add greater efficiencies
HEDGEYE 53
OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT
AMERICA – FRESH FOODS
ORGANIC PACKAGED SALAD RETAIL SALES U.S. ORGANIC PACKAGED SALAD AS A %
OF TOTAL SALAD CATEGORY
$489
$578
$655
$803
$938
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
+ 17% CAGR 16%
18%
20%
23% 24%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
($MM, grocery) (% grocery)
Data Source: Company filings. Nielsen US Food – 52 weeks ended early January 2009-2015.
Earthbound Farm remains the leading brand in organic packaged salad
HEDGEYE 54
EUROPE FOODS & BEVERAGES
PLANT-BASED FOOD AND BEVERAGES Overview Constant Currency Net Sales Growth
Products Management Commentary
• Plant-based foods and beverages, which include Alpro and Provamel (intended for organic items only) brand beverages using soy, almond, coconut, hazelnut, rice and oat based ingredients
• Alpro started focused on soy based beverages and then branched out to yogurts and creams
• Only pan-European dairy-free brand
• Latest pillar for growth has been growing outside of soy
― Like almonds, coconuts, hazelnuts, rice
• As you can see on the chart to the right, the growth in Europe is robust and expected to last. From the low amount of sales, you can see that penetration is still low and has room to grow
Data Source: Company filings.
“Alpro has a vision of a world where more of what we eat comes directly from plants, because we know that plant-based foods [are] not only good for the planet, but also good for the people, and besides that, we were able to develop these products to be even more delicious than their dairy alternatives.” –Bernard J. P. Deryckere, President-Europe
7%
13%
19%
12%
19% 18%
21% 23% 23%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15
Org
an
ic N
et
Sa
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Gro
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$ in
mil
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Reported Net Sales Organic Constant Currency Net Sales Growth
HEDGEYE 55
STRONG FOOTHOLD IN DAIRY-FREE
KILLING THE COMPETITION IN EUROPE
• Alpro is the only pan-European plant-based brand
• Alpro has a commanding position in Europe within the dairy-free segment. We would also like to point out our Hedgeye Consumer Staples Best Idea as a short (HAIN) is second to last on this list, but we weren’t surprised by that
Data Source: Company filings, Nielsen Plant-Based EU9 Nielsen MAT P04 2015; EU9 includes UK, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Portugal and France.
38% 40%
43%
7% 6%
3% 2% 2%
1%
2012 2013 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6
HEDGEYE 56
JOINT VENTURE
NOT CONSOLIDATED, BUT WORTH NOTING AS IT WILL BE A MEANINGFUL DRIVER OF GROWTH IN THE FUTURE
Overview
Products Management Commentary
• Joint venture with Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, a leading player in the Chinese dairy industry formed in January 2014
• WWAV invested $47mm to ramp up the project • JV will manufacture, market and sell a range of nutritious products in
China starting with Silk branded non-dairy milk • Officially launched product in late December 2014
― Almond & Walnut-based beverages in trial stage • Do not expect this business to contribute meaningfully yet • First time expanding outside of North America and Europe • A lot of room to grow internationally, this JV will be very interesting to
follow as they help to develop the dairy-free segment in Asia
“We believe China is a great long-term opportunity for WhiteWave with a sizeable consumer base, increasing income levels, and preference towards high-quality foods.” –Gregg Engles, CEO “This is a startup business and it will naturally take time to develop. But growth in the plant-based beverages category in China remains robust.” ―Gregg Engles, CEO
Great Partner with a Big Market to Capture
51%
49%
Ownership
LOOKING FORWARD
HEDGEYE 58
PLANNING FOR FUTURE GROWTH
$325 - $350 million in capital expenditures planned for full year 2015
• Investments in additional capacity • Adding lines in existing facilities to support internal production complete ownership of product
• Plant Improvements • Improving lines and processes to maximize efficiency margin expansion
• New R&D facility • Consolidating all R&D functions under one roof in Denver, CO improved innovation capabilities
• Support future growth beyond 2016 • For a company this big to grow at this rate is impressive, must inject more cash to support growth
1
2
3
4
Data Source: Company filings, Hedgeye research.
HEDGEYE 59
NEW PRODUCT INNOVATION IS A CORE COMPETENCY
WHITEWAVE HAS PROVEN THAT THEY ARE INNOVATORS Brand Extensions Into New Categories Brand Creation
• Internally created brand
• New emerging Aussie-style yogurt segment
• 10g of protein
• Manufactured internally at new Dubois, PA facility
• Focused retail rollout
• Launched in January 2015
• Expanding Salad offerings to include different mixes and value added salad bowls
• As well as growing out a frozen line of fruits, vegetables and smoothie mixes
• Over the course of FY14 introduced multiple center-of-store products to the marketplace: Organic/Gluten-free mac & cheese, fruit snacks, cracker and lunch box pouches
• All are meeting expectations
• Relaunching silk dairy-free yogurt
• Dairy-free is a very underdeveloped segment of yogurt category, <1%
• Improved packaging, formula, and now internally manufactured
Data Source: Company filings, Hedgeye research.
WWAV IS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF A PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE
HEDGEYE 61
GOOGLE SEARCH TRENDS FURTHER SUPPORTS OUR THESIS THAT INTEREST IN PLANT-BASED FOODS HAS ONLY REALLY STARTED TO TAKE OFF WITH MAINSTREAM CONSUMERS IN THE LAST FEW YEARS
“Almond Milk” “Plant Based”
“Vegan Protein” “Non GMO”
2005 2007 2009 2011 2015 2013
2005 2007 2009 2011 2015 2013
2005 2007 2009 2011 2015 2013
2005 2007 2009 2011 2015 2013
Data Source: Google search trends.
HEDGEYE 62
PLANT-BASED PRODUCTS ON THE CUSP OF BROAD ACCEPTANCE
Consumers are really starting to cling to the idea that plant-based alternative diets are healthier and better for the environment. Some smaller companies are capitalizing and WWAV is leading the pack. Our view is that this market is very much in the introduction/growth stage and has a long runway to reach maturity.
PLANT-BASED PRODUCTS ARE JUST REACHING THE GROWTH STAGE OF THEIR PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE
WWAV’s Status on the Curve
2012-2014 2014-2025 2025-2040 Beyond
Data Source: Hedgeye research.
M&A POSSIBILITIES
HEDGEYE 64
WHO COULD THEY ACQUIRE TO GROW CONTINUATION OF THE STRING OF PEARLS APPROACH
KIND Snacks Fage Justin’s
Amy’s Kitchen Blue Buffalo thinkThin Hampton Creek
• Granola and Bar producer, would be a great new product platform for WWAV, and add to their growing center-of-store portfolio
• ~$200mm in FY2013 Sales
• Acquisition of Fage would make for a larger international presence in the fast growing Greek yogurt category
• ~$650mm in sales
• Nut butter would be a perfect addition to the product line
• $50-$100mm in sales, generating triple digit growth
• Justin’s nut butters are very on-trend and corporate cultures would be a perfect match
• Perfect for expansion into the organic frozen foods category
• Huge growth potential
• Over $300mm in sales
• 70% of organic frozen foods market share
• Just filed IPO paper work, so may be difficult timing
• High quality pet food is a fast growing market
• With nearly a $1 billion in sales it would be transformational
• thinkThin is a very popular product among consumers, and has great distribution
• On-trend product
• Similar cultural values
Quorn
Data Source: Hedgeye research.
• HQ in the UK with a strong presence in the U.S.
• This would undoubtedly give WWAV a more robust European business, and a great compliment to the Alpro brand
• Entry into the meat alternatives segment
• Currently owned by Exponent PE, acquired for £205mm in 2011
• Hampton Creek is big on the egg scene right now, and is a small powerhouse in the plant-based segment
• Culture wise would be a perfect fit, and the products are amazing, but the valuation could be prohibitive
HEDGEYE 65
CAN THEY FINANCIALLY SUPPORT M&A? THAT DEPENDS ON THE SIZE OF THE DEAL RIGHT NOW
Data Source: FactSet.
Historical Net Debt / EBITDA Multiple
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Avg.
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.41x 3.92x 3.26x 1.95x 3.61x 3.03x
Pro Forma Net Debt / EBITDA for Vega Acquisition
( figures in Millions except multiples) Actuals as of LTM 03/15 Actual Pro Forma
Cash $31 FY2015E $70
Revolving Credit 16 Includes Vega 566
Term Loans (Adj.) 990 990
Notes/Bonds 500 500
Net Long Term Debt 1,506 2,056
Net Debt $1,475 $1,986
EBITDA 414 FY2015E 488
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.57x 4.07x
Pro Forma Net Debt / EBITDA as if Another Deal was Executed this Year
Deal Value (mm) $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
Pro Forma Net Debt / EBITDA 4.27x 4.48x 4.68x 4.89x 5.09x
HEDGEYE 66
WHO COULD BUY WWAV?
Data Source: Hedgeye, FactSet.
Comparable Transactions Who Could Buy WWAV?
Possible Valuation Range
$ in Millions
Announced Enterprise Enterprise Value / LTM
Date Target Acquirer Value Revenue EBITDA
6/10/2015 Vega WhiteWave Foods $550 5.50x n/a
6/9/2015 Garden Fresh Gourmet Campbell's $231 2.31x n/a
5/26/2015 Applegate Farms Hormel Foods $775 2.28x n/a
3/25/2015 Kraft Heinz $54,524 3.00x 15.00x
2/3/2015 Big Heart Pet Brands J.M. Smuckers $5,800 2.52x 12.89x
11/14/2014 Garden Protein Pinnacle $154 2.69x n/a
10/14/2014 So Delicious WhiteWave Foods $195 1.70x n/a
9/8/2014 Annie's General Mills $821 3.95x 27.37x
7/2/2014 Hillshire Tyson $8,550 2.14x 16.70x
6/30/2014 Cytosport Hormel $450 1.22x 15.00x
5/22/2014 Ragu & Bertolli Mizkan Group $2,150 3.47x n/a
3/6/2014 KIND Snack Foods VMG $729 3.70x 15.30x
12/9/2013 Earthbound Farm Organic WhiteWave Foods $600 1.20x 8.00x
12/9/2013 Dymatize Enterprises Post Holdings $380 1.95x 12.39x
12/9/2013 Golden Boy Foods Post Holdings $301 1.95x 13.91x
8/12/2013 Wishbone Pinnacle $580 3.05x 8.92x
8/2/2013 Premier Nutrition Post Holdings $180 1.33x 10.00x
6/10/2013 Pirate Brands B&G Foods $195 2.29x 10.26x
5/23/2013 Plum Organics Campbell's $249 2.68x n/a
5/9/2013 Hearthside Foods Post Holdings $158 2.26x 8.78x
2/14/2013 Heinz 3G $27,169 2.30x 14.10x
1/3/2013 Skippy Hormel $700 1.89x n/a
9/5/2012 Snack Factory Snyder's Lance $340 2.13x n/a
2/15/2012 Pringles Kellogg's $2,695 1.80x 11.09x
Mean 2.47x 13.31x
Median 2.29x 12.89x
Min 1.20x 8.00x
Max 3.95x 27.37x
($ in millions) Market Cap Enterprise Value Net Debt / EBITDA
Coca-Cola $175,460 $200,776 1.61x
PepsiCo $138,800 $162,455 1.58x
General Mills $32,934 $44,531 2.31x
Danone $41,205 $49,943 2.04x
Nestle $235,100 $251,905 0.65x
Kellogg's $22,169 $29,789 2.54x
(Updated on 6/17/15 at the close)
Price / Sales Multiple
Premium/Discount (12.3%) (8.2%) (4.1%) 0.0% 20.5% 41.0% 61.5%
$49 2.14x 2.24x 2.34x 2.44x 2.94x 3.44x 3.94x
$3,018 $36.85 $38.57 $40.29 $42.02 $50.63 $59.25 $67.87
$3,268 $39.90 $41.77 $43.63 $45.50 $54.83 $64.16 $73.49
$3,518 $42.95 $44.96 $46.97 $48.98 $59.02 $69.07 $79.11
$3,768 $46.01 $48.16 $50.31 $52.46 $63.22 $73.98 $84.74
$4,018 $49.06 $51.35 $53.65 $55.94 $67.41 $78.89 $90.36
Sa
les
ORGANIC GROWTH STRATEGY
HEDGEYE 68
OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT
THINK LOCAL, BE GLOBAL
STAY LOCAL Being an organic health food company, WhiteWave must appeal to the local, anti-corporate consumer to keep their core consumer base intact
GROWTH As is natural for any successful company,
WhiteWave has to remain dominant in the food industry by continuing to create
shareholder value
HEDGEYE 69
WHAT CAN BE DONE?
EMPHASIZE SUPPORT FOR LOCAL FAMILY FARMING Not only do people want great tasting healthy food products, they want to know where they came from as well. This is a large part of the company’s current marketing strategy, and it must remain a strong point as it expands.
STAY SUSTAINABLE Sustainability is an increasingly pertinent issue in the food industry, especially in competition for organic health food customers. WhiteWave is active in their efforts to reduce waste, greenhouse gas emissions, and water usage, while also taking initiative in other sustainability measures.
SHARE THE VISION WhiteWave is an environmentally responsible health food company, as must be their acquired subsidiaries and brands. Earthbound Farm, So Delicious and Vega share these values, and represent a proper start to the company’s M&A track record.
1
2
3
COMMODITIES
HEDGEYE 71
THE ORGANIC SUPPLY CHALLENGE
LAND DEVELOPMENT RATES 37% of America’s developed land has been converted from functional farmland in the past 30 years, which translates to 24 million acres of lost farmland since 1982. The trend has not slowed, as 50 acres of farm and ranch land are lost hourly to developments still today.
ORGANIC CERTIFICATION PROCESS The USDA requires that conventional farms adopt and maintain organic practices for a period of three years before selling their products as “organic.” Certification requires a rigorous application and inspection process.
HIGH COST OF CONVERSION Certification fees vary with different operations and can cost thousands of dollars, but conversion entails huge opportunity costs that farmers would have to endure. Farmers can’t charge organic prices until completion of their certification. Additionally, there are inspection, application, and annual renewal fees.
1
2
3
Data Source: Hedgeye research, USDA.
HEDGEYE 72
OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
2011 2012 2013 2014
Ne
t S
ale
s (b
illio
ns)
US Organic % Total Food Market Share
PROMISING OUTLOOK ORGANIC FOOD IN THE MARKET
Each year, organic food sales gain more of the total food market share.
POWERFUL INCENTIVES
The USDA will reimburse up to 75% of certification costs through the USDA Organic Certification Cost-Share Program. Organizations such as American Farmland Trust and Farmland LP offer affordable solutions to aspiring organic farmers, and have been helping conversions for decades. Government spending on organic agriculture increased immensely with 2014 Farm Act.
Data Source: Hedgeye research, USDA.
HEDGEYE 73
OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT
WWAV DOING ALL THE RIGHT THINGS
WWAV shares the vision of its customer base by partnering with several GMO fighting organizations to promote transparency in the food industry
WWAV’s Horizon Organic Producer Education (HOPE) program was created in 2001 to assist farmers in transitioning to organic, and to provide general support for family farms
Data Source: Hedgeye research.
HEDGEYE 74
OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT
ALMOND SOURCING WHILE TOTAL ALMOND PRODUCTION VALUE GROWTH SLOWS, ALMOND PRICES ARE AT AN ALL TIME HIGH FROM $1.79 IN 2010 TO $3.50 IN 2014 (18.3% CAGR). THE DROUGHT HAS CAUSED 40% OF LARGE (>600 ACRES) ALMOND OPERATIONS TO DELAY ACREAGE EXPANSION. OUR PRICE INCREASE EXPECTATIONS ARE IN LINE WITH MANAGEMENT’S, AND WE BELIEVE IN MANAGEMENT’S ABILITY TO OFFSET THESE PRICES WITH COST SAVINGS INITIATIVES. WITH A 70% MARKET SHARE OF PLANT BASED DRINKS, DEMAND FOR ALMONDS WILL REMAIN STRONG.
5.9%
13.3% 13.9%
(1.7%)
3.8%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Yo
Y G
row
th
Millio
ns
Po
un
ds
CROP YEAR
Almond Production by Crop Year (Aug-July)
Data Source: Almond Board of California, Hedgeye.
HEDGEYE 75
USDA ORGANIC CORN VS. CME CORN
PRICES OFF HISTORICAL HIGHS, PRICE SPREAD WIDENING
Data Source: Mercaris, USDA, CME. (1) USDA, figures as of June 14, 2015, data collected weekly and reported on the first business day of every week after 16:00 ET.
Price Spread
Current: $8.85 (6/14/2015)
Max: $10.38 (8/10/2014)
Min: $0.20 (10/10/2010)
Average: $5.19
USDA reported on 6/15/15 that recent surveys indicate 73% of corn crop is in good or excellent condition, compares to 74% last week and 76% in the same week last year.(1)
$3.65
$12.50
-$2
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
Price Spread CME USDA Organic
(Price Spread on right axis, USDA Organic and CME on Left Axis)
HEDGEYE 76
TOTAL US ORGANIC CORN IMPORT VOLUMES
For the month of April 2015, total Organic Corn imports reached 1,131,771 bushels, an increase of 5% versus prior month and 2095% versus prior year. Year to date, total imports have reached 2,830,773 bushels which is an increase of 878% versus last year. If the current pace continues throughout the year, imports could reach 22,646,184 bushels.
IMPORTS FOR ORGANIC CORN ARE AT ALL TIME HIGHS
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Bu
she
ls
2012 2013 2014 2015
Data Source: Mercaris.
HEDGEYE 77
ORGANIC CORN IMPORT VOLUMES BY COUNTRY PAST 12 MONTHS
IN THE PRIOR 12 MONTHS, THE TOP 3 EXPORTING COUNTRIES TO THE U.S. FOR ORGANIC CORN WERE ROMANIA, TURKEY AND NETHERLANDS
Data Source: Mercaris.
Romania 48.5%
Turkey 22.5%
Argentina 5.7%
Bulgaria 0.1%
Canada 8.4%
Greece 0.1%
India 2.4%
Netherlands 12.2%
HEDGEYE 78
MONTHLY AVERAGE ORGANIC CORN IMPORT PRICES
Organic Corn import prices in April decreased modestly by 9.22% from March from $11.72/bu to $10.64/bu. Import prices are 16.48% below prices at the same time last year.
IMPORT PRICES TRENDING DOWN
Data Source: Mercaris.
$13.00
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
US
$ p
er
Bu
she
l
FOB Origin Price Freight Cost Average Monthly Change
HEDGEYE 79
2014/2015YTD AVERAGE ORGANIC CORN IMPORT PRICES
For CY14, the average import price for Organic Corn delivered to the U.S. (including CIF) was $12.97/bu which is $0.11/bu lower than the average domestic price of $13.08/bu as reported to Mercaris. Delivered prices from the largest exporting country, Romania, were $11.74/bu (which includes all CIF charges). FOB origin prices in Romania were $10.33/bu. In terms of total delivered cost, Romania was the lowest cost importing country at $11.74/bu. For CY15, the average import price for Organic Corn delivered to the U.S. (including CIF) was $11.68/bu which is $1.20/bu lower than the average domestic price of $12.88/bu as reported to Mercaris. Delivered prices from the largest exporting country, Romania, were $10.71/bu (which includes all CIF charges). FOB origin prices in Romania were $9.36/bu. In terms of total delivered cost, Romania was the lowest cost importing country to the U.S. at $10.17/bu.
Data Source: Mercaris.
$13.08
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
US
$ p
er
Bu
she
l
FOB Origin Price Freight Cost
2014 2015 YTD
$12.88
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
US
$ p
er
Bu
she
l
FOB Origin Price Freight Cost
HEDGEYE 80
USDA ORGANIC SOYBEANS VS. CME SOYBEANS
PRICES OFF HISTORICAL HIGHS, PRICE SPREAD WIDENING
Data Source: Mercaris, USDA, CME. (1) USDA, figures as of June 14, 2015, data collected weekly and reported on the first business day of every week after 16:00 ET.
Price Spread
Current: $15.52 (6/14/2015)
Max: $20.88 (6/8/2008)
Min: $1.67 (10/10/2010)
Average: $10.14
USDA reported on 6/15/15 that recent surveys indicate 67% of soybean crop is in good or excellent condition, compares to 69% last week and 73% in the same week last year.(1)
$24.96
$9.34
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Price Spread USDA Organic CME
(Price Spread on right axis, USDA Organic and CME on Left Axis)
HEDGEYE 81
TOTAL US SOYBEAN IMPORT VOLUMES
For the month of April 2015, total Organic Soybean imports reached 1,096,029 bushels, an increase of 8% versus prior month and 99% versus prior year. Year to date, total imports have reached 3,154,414 bushels which is an increase of 160% versus last year. If the current pace continues throughout the year, imports could reach 25,235,312.
SOYBEAN IMPORTS OUTPACING THE PREVIOUS THREE YEARS
Data Source: Mercaris.
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Bu
she
ls
2012 2013 2014 2015
HEDGEYE 82
ORGANIC SOYBEAN IMPORT VOLUMES BY COUNTRY PAST 12 MONTHS
IN THE PRIOR 12 MONTHS, THE TOP THREE EXPORTING COUNTRIES TO THE U.S. FOR ORGANIC SOYBEANS WERE INDIA, CHINA AND UKRAINE.
Data Source: Mercaris.
India 43.9%
Netherlands 1.4% Romania
2.5% Turkey 2.8%
Uganda 0.1%
China 17.9%
Hong Kong 0.1%
Russia 0.4%
Uruguay 0.1%
Kazakhstan 3.2%
Ukraine 14.0%
Argentina 6.8%
Canada 6.9%
HEDGEYE 83
MONTHLY AVERAGE ORGANIC SOYBEAN IMPORT PRICES
Organic Soybeans import prices in April increased slightly by 0.41% from March from $22.04/bu to $22.13/bu. Import prices are 8.93% below prices at the same time last year.
Data Source: Mercaris.
$24.22
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30 U
S$
pe
r B
ush
el
FOB Origin Price Freight Cost Average Monthly Change
HEDGEYE 84
2014/2015YTD AVERAGE ORGANIC SOYBEAN IMPORT PRICES
For CY14, the average import price for Organic Soybeans delivered to the U.S. (including CIF) was $24.65/bu which is $1.47/bu lower than the average domestic price of $26.12/bu as reported to Mercaris. Delivered prices from the largest exporting country, India, were $23.78/bu (which includes all CIF charges). FOB origin prices in India were $21.61/bu. In terms of total delivered cost, Ukraine was the lowest cost importer at $22.90/bu. For CY15, the average import price for Organic Soybeans delivered to the U.S. (including CIF) was $22.51/bu which is $2.94/bu lower than the average domestic price of $25.45/bu as reported to Mercaris. Delivered prices from the largest exporting country, India, were $22.11/bu (which includes all CIF charges). FOB origin prices to India were $19.79/bu. In terms of total delivered cost, Romania was the lowest cost importing country to the U.S. $20.44/bu.
Data Source: Mercaris.
2014 2015 YTD
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
US
$ p
er
Bu
she
l
FOB Origin Price Freight Cost Source: Mercaris
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
US
$ p
er
Bu
she
l
FOB Origin Price Freight Cost Source: Mercaris
WWAV VS. HAIN
HEDGEYE 86
OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT
TOP LINE COMPARISON
Data Source: FactSet.
LTM LTM
2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar '15 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar '15
Income Statement Income Statement
Net Sales $2,026 $2,289 $2,542 $3,437 $3,518 Net Sales $1,130 $1,378 $1,735 $2,154 $2,574
% Growth 11.3% 13.0% 11.1% 35.2% % Growth 23.2% 21.9% 25.9% 24.1%
Gross Income $685 $804 $908 $1,156 $1,191 Gross Income $320 $373 $467 $552 $583
% Margin 33.8% 35.1% 35.7% 33.6% 33.9% % Margin 28.3% 27.1% 26.9% 25.6% 22.6%
% Growth 12.1% 17.4% 13.0% 27.3% % Growth 27.2% 16.8% 25.2% 18.1%
SG&A $551 $660 $702 $861 $888 SG&A $213 $228 $276 $311 $348
% of Sales 27.2% 28.8% 27.6% 25.0% 25.2% % of Sales 18.8% 16.6% 15.9% 14.5% 13.5%
Growth as % of sales (5.5%) 5.9% (4.2%) (9.3%) 0.8% Growth as % of sales 0.8% (11.9%) (4.0%) (9.2%) (6.5%)
EBIT $133 $144 $206 $295 $303 EBIT $107 $145 $191 $241 $235
% Margin 6.6% 6.3% 8.1% 8.6% 8.6% % Margin 9.5% 10.5% 11.0% 11.2% 9.1%
% Growth 54.6% 8.1% 43.0% 43.5% % Growth 33.5% 35.5% 31.7% 26.0%
EBITDA $201 $218 $288 $406 $414 EBITDA $131 $175 $231 $289 $291
% Margin 9.9% 9.5% 11.3% 11.8% 11.8% % Margin 11.6% 12.7% 13.3% 13.4% 11.3%
% Growth 32.4% 8.6% 31.8% 41.0% % Growth 32.6% 33.7% 31.8% 24.9%
HEDGEYE 87
OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT
WWAV VS HAIN
Data Source: Hedgeye, FactSet. (1) Average includes WWAV and HAIN.
WWAV HAIN
29.9% 27.9% 29.0% 29.6% 27.8% 26.4% 25.3% 26.1% 24.7% 24.2% 26.1%
35.6% 34.8%
35.8% 36.4% 35.5% 35.1%
32.9% 34.1% 34.2%
33.1% 33.9%
5.6%
6.9% 6.8% 6.8%
7.7%
8.7%
7.6% 8.0%
9.5%
8.9% 7.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q3 FY12 Q4 FY12 Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15
WWAV SG&A as % of Sales WWAV Gross Margin WWAV Operating Margin
LTM Feb '15 LTM Mar '15 FY Dec '14 LTM Mar '15 FY Dec '14 FY Dec '14GIS KRFT NESN-CH MNST LWAY BN-FR Average
SG&A as a % of Sales 18.9% 13.2% 30.4% 31.9% 19.9% 32.9% 23.2%Gross Margin 34.1% 30.7% 48.1% 55.6% 23.7% 47.2% 37.0%Operating Margin 15.2% 17.4% 15.0% 23.7% 3.7% 12.9% 13.2%
17.3% 16.6% 15.5% 16.3% 16.1% 14.7% 14.6% 15.1% 14.4% 12.9% 13.0%
26.5%
28.7% 28.1% 27.0%
25.1%
27.2% 27.6% 27.8%
23.5%
25.3% 24.7%
9.1%
12.1% 12.6%
10.7%
9.0%
12.5% 13.0%
12.7%
9.1%
12.5%
11.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15
HAIN SG&A as % of Sales HAIN Gross Margin HAIN Operating Margin
(1)
HEDGEYE 88
WWAV FIRST IN-CLASS BRAND PORTFOLIO
• 9 Brands
• All brands are number 1 or number 2 in their respective categories
• Very well-known names recognized globally (pending approval)
(licensed)
HEDGEYE 89
HAIN PORTFOLIO LACKS EXCITEMENT
• ~60 Brands
• No clear product emphasis or niche
• Weak brand recognition
HEDGEYE 90
OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT
HEDGEYE COMMENTARY
• HAIN is not an organic company!
• Only 30% of their brands are actually organic
• Growth plan is clearly dependent on acquisitions, because their base business as a whole is not growing to support current valuations
• Furthermore, we do not consider HAIN a takeover target, imagine successfully rolling these brands into an organization like GIS, KRFT, K or MDLZ…very unlikely
• All brands are #1 or #2 in their primary category
• Compact and simplified product offering, fitting into a clear organic health food niche
• Simplified business More revenue than Hain Celestial with 85% less brands
• Although trading at a high valuation there are many catalysts including fundamentally strong performance and M&A that will propel further growth
• Strong management and board with a track record and plan for success
BULLISH BEARISH
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
FINANCIALS
HEDGEYE 92
COGS AS A % OF SALES
COGS
― WWAV has effectively managed their COGS line as they grow the business
― Notching it lower on a YoY basis consistently, after seeing a large acceleration going into FY14
― In the future we predict there will be a deceleration of COGS as a % of sales
Data Source: Consensus Metrix.
64.1%
63.6%
64.5%
64.9%
67.1%
66.0% 65.8%
66.6%
66.2%
65.7%
64.8%
66.4%
65.7%
65.0% 64.7%
65.7% 65.8%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Q1 FY13
Q2 FY13
Q3 FY13
Q4 FY13
Q1 FY14
Q2 FY14
Q3 FY14
Q4 FY14
Q1 FY15
Q2 FY15E
Q3 FY15E
Q4 FY15E
Q1 FY16E
Q2 FY16E
Q3 FY16E
Q4 FY16E
Q1 FY17E
COGS COGS as a % of Sales
HEDGEYE 93
GROSS MARGIN
― The yearly ski slope is showing signs of steepening
― As management has been effectively managing their supply chain, they are realizing the benefits
― We are predicting strong gross margin trends
Data Source: Consensus Metrix.
35.9%
36.4%
35.5%
35.1%
32.9%
34.0% 34.2%
33.4%
33.8%
34.4%
34.9%
33.5%
34.3%
35.0% 35.3%
34.3% 34.2%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
Q1 FY13
Q2 FY13
Q3 FY13
Q4 FY13
Q1 FY14
Q2 FY14
Q3 FY14
Q4 FY14
Q1 FY15
Q2 FY15E
Q3 FY15E
Q4 FY15E
Q1 FY16E
Q2 FY16E
Q3 FY16E
Q4 FY16E
Q1 FY17E
Gross Profit % Margin
HEDGEYE 94
SG&A AS A % OF SALES
SG&A ― Exactly what you
want to see here
― SG&A as a % of sales is coming down nicely, closer to industry averages in the high teens
― Expect to see management integrating their acquired businesses and streamlining costs
Data Source: Consensus Metrix.
28.1%
28.9%
27.0%
26.1%
25.1%
25.5%
24.6%
23.7%
25.6% 25.3%
24.4%
22.9%
25.0% 24.9%
24.1%
23.1%
24.9%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Q1 FY13
Q2 FY13
Q3 FY13
Q4 FY13
Q1 FY14
Q2 FY14
Q3 FY14
Q4 FY14
Q1 FY15
Q2 FY15E
Q3 FY15E
Q4 FY15E
Q1 FY16E
Q2 FY16E
Q3 FY16E
Q4 FY16E
Q1 FY17E
SG&A SG&A as a % of Sales
HEDGEYE 95
OPERATING MARGIN (EBIT) ― Management
doing what they do
― Filling up capacity and improving their fixed asset leverage
― WWAV will begin to see margin acceleration as they integrate Vega, and get Earthbound on SAP among other things
Data Source: Consensus Metrix.
7.8% 7.5%
8.5%
9.0%
7.8%
8.6%
9.6% 9.7%
8.2%
9.1%
10.6% 10.6%
9.3%
10.1%
11.2% 11.2%
9.3%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Q1 FY13
Q2 FY13
Q3 FY13
Q4 FY13
Q1 FY14
Q2 FY14
Q3 FY14
Q4 FY14
Q1 FY15
Q2 FY15E
Q3 FY15E
Q4 FY15E
Q1 FY16E
Q2 FY16E
Q3 FY16E
Q4 FY16E
Q1 FY17E
EBIT % Margin
HEDGEYE 96
EBITDA
― Increasing on a YoY basis consistently
― Again speaks to managements operating discipline
Data Source: Consensus Metrix.
11.1% 10.7%
11.7% 12.1%
11.0%
11.7%
12.8% 12.8%
11.2%
12.3%
13.7% 13.8%
12.5%
13.3%
14.3% 14.2% 14.7%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
Q1 FY13
Q2 FY13
Q3 FY13
Q4 FY13
Q1 FY14
Q2 FY14
Q3 FY14
Q4 FY14
Q1 FY15
Q2 FY15E
Q3 FY15E
Q4 FY15E
Q1 FY16E
Q2 FY16E
Q3 FY16E
Q4 FY16E
Q1 FY17E
EBITDA % Margin
VALUATION
HEDGEYE 98
PUBLIC TRADING COMPS
Data Source: FactSet. Data gathered on 6/17/15.
Diluted
Shares Equity Enterprise LTM EBIT EBITDA EV/ NTM EV/
Company Name Price Outstanding Value Value Sales Margin Margin EBIT EBITDA
WhiteWave Foods $48.98 175 $8,577 $10,074 $3,518 8.6% 11.8% 32.97x 19.02x
General Mills $55.25 596 $32,929 $43,645 $17,615 15.2% 18.5% 16.34x 12.08x
Hain $65.26 103 $6,696 $7,474 $2,574 9.1% 11.3% 31.82x 16.97x
Kraft $85.46 590 $50,438 $59,292 $18,195 17.4% 19.6% 18.69x 15.70x
Monster Beverage $132.25 170 $22,503 $21,493 $2,556 23.7% 24.7% 35.46x 19.75x
Mean 14.8% 17.2% 27.1x 16.7x
Median 15.2% 18.5% 31.8x 17.0x
HEDGEYE 99
VALUATION
Data Source: Hedgeye. FactSet.
WhiteWave Foods Company 48.98$ EARNINGS AND VALUATION SUMMARY SUMMARY FINANCIALS VALUATION
FY ends Dec. NTM 2015E 2016E 2017E NTM FY2015E FY2016E Stock Price 48.98$
Hedgeye EPS $1.25 $1.15 $1.37 $1.60 Consensus (mm) $3,437.0 $3,818.4 $4,172.4 Shares Outstanding 175.12% Chg YoY 15% 19.0% 17.0% % Chg YoY 11.1% 9.3% Market Cap 8,577.2$ Consensus $1.23 $1.13 $1.35 $1.57 EBITDA $525.60 $488.1 $569.3 Net Debt 1,497.1$
% Chg YoY 13.4% 18.9% 16.5% % Chg YoY 17.8% 16.6% Enterprise Value 10,074$
Variance % 1.4% 1.5% 2.0% EBITDA Margin* 15.3% 12.8% 13.6%P/E 38.2X 41.6X 34.8X 29.6X EV/EBITDA 19.2X 20.6X 17.7X NTM EBITDA 525.6$
NTM EV/EBITDA 19.2x
INVESTMENT POSITIVES INVESTMENT NEGATIVES NTM EPS 1.23$ 1) #1 or #2 Brands in all the categories they compete in 1) Commodity/FX price risk NTM P/E 39.7x2) On-trend categories 2) Overpaying for acquisitions3) Strong management team 3) Increased competition 1X Turn 3.00$ 4) Great M&A prospects in the pipeline 4) Valuation Upside/Downside 6.1%
*Consensus EBITDA Margin Source: Factset, Company Filings & Hedgeye
©HEDGEYE RISKMANAGEMENT
HEDGEYE 100
VALUATION
Data Source: Hedgeye. FactSet.
2016 EV/EBITDA Multiple18.50x 19.15x 19.15x 19.16x 19.16x 19.17x 19.32x 19.47x 19.62x 19.77x 19.92x 20.07x
$526 $47.02 $48.96 $48.98 $48.99 $49.01 $49.02 $49.47 $49.92 $50.37 $50.82 $51.27 $51.72$536 $48.13 $50.11 $50.13 $50.14 $50.16 $50.17 $50.63 $51.09 $51.55 $52.01 $52.47 $52.93$547 $49.26 $51.28 $51.30 $51.32 $51.33 $51.35 $51.82 $52.28 $52.75 $53.22 $53.69 $54.16$558 $50.42 $52.48 $52.50 $52.51 $52.53 $52.54 $53.02 $53.50 $53.98 $54.46 $54.93 $55.41$569 $51.60 $53.70 $53.72 $53.73 $53.75 $53.77 $54.25 $54.74 $55.23 $55.72 $56.20 $56.69$598 $54.60 $56.81 $56.83 $56.85 $56.86 $56.88 $57.39 $57.91 $58.42 $58.93 $59.44 $59.95$628 $57.76 $60.08 $60.10 $60.12 $60.14 $60.15 $60.69 $61.23 $61.77 $62.30 $62.84 $63.38$659 $61.08 $63.51 $63.53 $63.55 $63.57 $63.59 $64.15 $64.72 $65.28 $65.85 $66.41 $66.98$692 $64.56 $67.12 $67.14 $67.16 $67.18 $67.20 $67.79 $68.38 $68.97 $69.57 $70.16 $70.75
BEAR BASE BULL
-4% 10% 44%
EB
ITD
A
HEDGEYE 101
WHAT WE THINK ABOUT THE POTENTIAL RISKS
BOTTOM LINE IS THESE “ISSUES” ARE NOTHING THAT MANAGEMENT CAN’T HANDLE, BUT THE RISKS REMAIN
• Increased competition from branded and Private Label
• This is a real concern of ours in the long-term, obviously with faster growing categories, new entrants are going to emerge
Competition • Foreign exchange rates will
continue to affect the business as they expand internationally
• Although this will affect reported numbers it’s important to look at constant currency to get a read on the business
FOREX • WWAV’s growth is the driver
of this concern
• Availability of almonds, organic milk and organic salad remain concerns as the business grows
Commodities
• With a business growing this fast, especially the European business in the low 20%’s it can be tough to keep up with capacity and plan appropriately
• Management has announced $325-$350 million in capex for FY15 to combat this issue.
Capacity • Potential of an M&A deal
gone awry
• Not very likely give the methodical nature in which WWAV acquires companies, and the past experience management has
M&A
Data Source:
HEDGEYE 102
GAME PLAN FOR YOUR INVESTMENT
1-3 YEAR TIME TABLE
We suggest a long term play on this stock, as minor bumps in the road could cause price drops given the current high expectations / valuation. But do not let your mind stray from the long term prospect this company provides you.
We at Hedgeye strongly believe this company will either double in size (via organic growth / sizeable acquisitions) or be acquired in the next 2-3 years.
Both would be great from a return perspective.