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Steve Carter
The 451Group
451 Research, LLC
www.451research.com
PMINJ Chapter
May 5th Symposium 2014
Best Practices to Manage
Disruptive Technologies
Best Practices to Manage Disruptive Technologies
Steve Carter VP 451 Research, LLC
Project Management Demands for IT Industry
• Absolute NEED for PMO dedicated to IT organization
• Disruptive technologies have radically DECREASED speed to market timelines for innovation deployments
• Innovation lifecycle has also radically DECREASED. o Push something out and then we will have time to get it
right later? o Missing your product market requirements for REV. 1
innovation initiatives can lead to a DOA solution
• Global economic downturn of 2008 has moved ROI and associated project management best practices up the decision priority stack
3 05/05/2014
Industry Trends
• Hybrid Solutions – Mix of brick/mortar, COLO and modular o Drivers: Lower per deployment CAPEX spends based upon
ability to add capacity in smaller chunks
• Financial industry was a follower of IT optimization trends
• Utilizing compaction outcomes of IT optimization to enable effective multiple data center active/active availability scenarios
• MTDC market has been overbuilt since 2008 financial crisis. o Strong downward price pressure o Over last two years, general 20% price reduction
year/year.
4 05/05/2014
Disruptive Technology Drivers
Source: Cisco Systems
Average Enterprise Useable Data Storage Capacity Increased 53% in 2013. From 4.9 PB to 7.6 PB Source 451 Research
5 05/05/2014
Impact of Stranded Capacities and $
Overprovision 61%
Capacity Mgmt Tools
Virtualization Load Balancing
26%
No Variability 13%
External Cloud 2%
Outsource 2%
Leverage Disaster Recovery
1%
Hire Contractors 1% Other
5%
How do you currently deal with variable resource requirements due to randomness, time of day, and/or seasonal demand?
Successful PM must incorporate Modeling & Analysis to Save $$
6 05/05/2014
Digital Infrastructure Roadmap™
Data Center Consolidation
Optimization Planning
Everything as a Service
Transformation Planning
Third Party
Cost of Stranded Capacities
Modular Design
Return on Investment
Disaster Recovery
Answering the WHAT? WHY? and HOW? questions
CAPEX
Impact of IT Growth
OPEX
Efficiency
Availability
7 05/05/2014
Business Demand Alignment to Digital Infrastructure
• User Requirements
• Business Cycles
• M & A
Business Demands
• Tiering
• Function
• Growth
• Service Catalog
Application Rationalization
• Physical Refresh
• Logical Ratios
• Utilization
Technology Infrastructure
• Owned/Operated
• Third Party
• Hybrid with Cloud
Facility Infrastructure
• Business Demand Units Defined
• Availability Profiles
• Performance Profiles
Consumption and Allocation
Model
• Application Stacks
• Application Technology Model
Application Catalog
• Technology Stacks
• Facility Stacks
• Orchestration
Capability to Capacity Model
• $ / kW physical
• $ / instance cloud
• Decision criteria
Cost Model
8 05/05/2014
Journey of 5000 Servers
5000
2500
550 250 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Pre 2006 2006-2010 2010-2012 Post 2012
Space SF
Physical Servers
Power kW
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Pre 2006 2006-2010 2010-2012 Post 2012
Mill
ion
s
$ TIER 3 Data Center
$ TIER 3 Data Center
Improving with Virtualization but Still $Millions
9 05/05/2014
Metrics of Digital Infrastructure Capacity Planning – $ and Decisions
Traditional
•Own IT
•Owned/Outsourced Facility
•$ / Watt
Public Cloud
•Outsourced IT and Facility
•No view of kW
•$ / Instance
Capacity Utilization
and Requirements
Tech Cycles
Business Cycles
Orchestration
of Business and
Technology
Demands
Required
Client Example: Business Demand Metrics
10 05/05/2014
Metrics of Traditional vs. Cloud
Type $/kW $/Instance RU’s Required for 256 VM’s
HPDL380 $232 $580 32
HPC7000 $236 $589 10
EC2 On Demand NA $1,594 NA
EC2 Reserved Heavy
Utilization
NA $1,029 NA
Includes data center infrastructure costs (IaaS/compute as a service - baseline) Does not include network, data storage and application costs
Assumption: $200 per kW IT load annual internal data center facilities costs
• Single case study using our current cost comparison methodologies • Large enterprise client with data centers based in US West • Goal: compare traditional internal basic IT infrastructure cost across platform types,
power consumption and workload projections • Secondary goal: compare internal analysis to EC2. • SLA IS different between solutions!
Assumption: 3 Year Life of Hardware/Software Costs (3 Year Cost Model)
11 05/05/2014
Digital Infrastructure Dashboard
“Metrics That Matter” must be set up, facilitated and tracked by the PM & Project Team
1. Monitoring
2. Management
3. Modeling
Monitoring
• Compute: CPU, Memory & I/O
• Storage: Raw vs. Provisioned, Provisioned vs. Utilized
• Network: Bandwidth, Latency, Utilization, Errors
Management
• Capacity vs. Utilization
• Availability & reliability
• Reporting, Alerting & Tracking
Modeling
• On premise vs. Off Premise DIRECT Comparisons
• Future State Transformation (what if scenarios)
• Align DI Requirements to Dynamic Business Demands
12 05/05/2014
Digital Infrastructure Efficiency Metrics
13 05/05/2014
Cost per Transaction with Facility Cost vs. Without
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Transactions Per DI Dollar with Facilities MEP
Biz Trans per Month per DI Dollar Biz Trans per Month per DI Dollar w/MEP
14 05/05/2014
Digital Infrastructure Analysis Case Study
Financial Client
Case Study Introduction
• Client Roadmap was to have Active/Active environments in Mission Critical Applications
• Initial Analysis Requirements
• 1,100kW of IT load spread over 12,000 SF of Raised Floor • ~$40-$80M Capital Cost
• Client wanted to validate the capacity assumptions with a neutral party, so engaged with 451 Advisors
16 05/05/2014
Project Overview
• Client Requirements
• Understanding Data Center “A” Current State of Digital Infrastructure
• Define the Future State Scenarios
• Create Guidelines for Historical and Future Growth Assumptions
Results by Scenario:
1. Data Center “A” Baseline Model
2. Data Center “A” Cloud Optimization Model
3. Data Center “B” Full Replication Build Model
4. Data Center “B” Mission Critical Replication
• Recommendations/Comments
• Next Steps
• Peer Benchmarking
17 05/05/2014
Data Center “A” Future Growth Model (Optimized State)
18 05/05/2014
Conclusion – Transition
• Initial Analysis Requirements
• 1,100kW of IT load spread over 12,000 ft2 of Raised Floor - ~$40-$80M Capital Cost
• Refined Requirements (451 Advisors)
• 400kW of IT load spread over 3,500 ft2 of Raised Floor - $14-$21M Capital Cost
• Over provisioned facility projections
• 75% Lower on IT KW projections
• 80% Lower on ft2 projections
• 65% - 75% Day 1 Capital Savings
19 05/05/2014
Client Case Study Secondary (DR) Data Center Demand Analysis
Digital Infrastructure Roadmap Case Study
Options Evaluated
• Space and power In ADC cannot accommodate entire Drop Ship List
• Requires alternative site MEP upgrade (possibly expanded space)
Stay in ADC – Drop Ship to new site
• Move Drop Ship to the Cloud
• Incur a nominal monthly fee for test/dev and storage ADC & Drop Ship in the
Cloud
• Utilize existing facility; would be about the same as Greenfield (may be less if facilities space is available & demolition costs are minimal)
• Alternate Client site may not be viable for full ADC build out (not enough space)
Brownfield
• Build new structure on Client Campus – future cost savings long-term
• Risk – two data centers in close proximity Greenfield
• DRaaS for Most of ADC; No HA support
• Would not support all ADC technology (e.g., Tape) Managed Private Cloud
• Price/evaluate other City area Collocation facilities New COLLO
21 05/05/2014
Current 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Storage
Server
Network
Model Results: ADC Power In Recovery Mode (with Drop Ship)
Capacity Estimated Production Load with Increased CPU Utilization
22 05/05/2014
Ten Year CAPEX and OPEX Cost Estimates
Notes: ADC + new site includes $500K upgrade & NO increase in OPEX Managed Private Cloud is DR Only Greenfield & COLO includes migration costs
$-
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ten Year Cumulative Approximation
ADC + Warrendale
ADC + Cloud
Greenfield
Managed Private Cloud
Colo
23 05/05/2014
Deciphering the Digital Infrastructure Journey: An Agile, Automated, Adaptable Infrastructure
24 05/05/2014
Effective Delivery & Demonstrated Value
Metrics Identified Metrics Collected Metrics Correlated
25 05/05/2014