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Beyond Growth Beyond Borders: A Panacea . Joyashree Roy Professor of Economics and Coordinator Global Change Programme Jadavpur University Kolkata, India May 28, 2010 @WIOD Conference, Vienna. What ails climate negotiation?. Equity beyond Efficiency Limited/Uncoordinated Information - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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GCP-JU
Beyond Growth Beyond Borders: A Panacea
Joyashree RoyProfessor of Economics and
Coordinator Global Change ProgrammeJadavpur University
Kolkata, India
May 28, 2010 @WIOD Conference, Vienna
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What ails climate negotiation?
• Equity beyond Efficiency• Limited/Uncoordinated Information• Scientists, engineers, economists
coordinating at peripheral level• National interest over rides global
sustainability issue
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Current status • Activity - Emission mapping • Production approach (direct emission)Emission=Commodity Production x GHG Intensity
• World is divided on the issue of burden sharing • Denial and short coming of production approach• In favour of Consumption approach • Direct and Indirect emission
• Burden sharing, leakage: consumption and production approach
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Production approach
Res &building 8%
energy supply26%
transport 13%
industry 19%
agriculture 14%
forestry 17%
waste &waste water 3%
Res &building
energy supply
transport
industry
agriculture
forestry
waste &waste water
Source: IPCC 2007 (GHG inventory method: UNFCCC) (Mitigation at production process level)
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Need for more information
Beyond Growth, Beyond Borders
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B
C
Nationstates
AG
lobal comm
on future defined by GH
Gs stock
Global
Trade
Global carbon management
Emission from trade sector
flow
flow
flow
National Inventories(domestic)
mitigation
Avoided damage
Avoided damage
Avoided damage
SNA GHG a/cTrade a/c
Production and Consumption a/c to match
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What should world do?
Mitigation and
adaptation
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Projected impacts of climate change
1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C
Sea level rise threatens major cities
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions
FoodFood
WaterWater
EcosystemsEcosystems
Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C
Falling yields in many developed regions
Rising number of species face extinction
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Significant fall in water availability e.g. Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Small mountain glaciers disappear – melt-water supplies threatened in several areas
Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs
Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves
Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions
Source: stern review
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SNA
through environment and trade lense
SEEA, STA
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Alternative mitigation options
• Comparing Mitigation potential and cost
– Through technology – Through lifestyle change – Through trade
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A-M
• Adaptation is Damage cost • Mitigation is Maintenance cost for the
Natural Capital • There is tradeoff• Early mitigation reduces adaptation cost
and vice versa• How to build into the various models
adaptation cost is also a major challenge
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Beyond Economic Growth
New Paradigm Sustainable Development
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Weak Sustainability Criterion
Genuine Investment
Manmade capital Human capital Natural Capital
Capital Portfolio
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Climate Forcing Pollutants
DaysWeeks and Days
Decades and Centuries
LOCAL to REGIONAL GLOBAL
•Cooling Aerosols•Heating Aerosols(transport over long distances)
O3
CONOx
SO2
1.56 Wm-2 CO2 1
0.47 Wm-2 CH4 21
0.14 Wm-2 N2O 310
HFC 140Little now SF6 23,900
PFC Large
ParticulatesShort Lived Gases
(Protocol) GHGs
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FAQs in FAQs in developing economiesdeveloping economies
**Can sustainable development Can sustainable development be achieved be achieved unilaterally?unilaterally?*Can nation states : *Can nation states :
plan their development pathway, plan their development pathway, organise activities with national organise activities with national perspectives? perspectives? maintain policy and institutional maintain policy and institutional
autonomy?autonomy?
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Growing challengesand growing complexities
• Traditional challenges of economic growth– Unfinished agenda– Non declining consumption goal
• New challenges – Non declining productive base– Non declining consumption
• National• Global
Panacea: Beyond growth , beyond boundariesInformation: Global connectivity
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National vs. global agenda
different combination of energy security and emission.
Fig 1a: Technologies for abating GHGs and improving energy security
Fig 1b: Trade off between GHG abatement and energy security
Source: Brown and Huntington (2008)
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Global externality
• New challenge • Complex problem
*Additional Risk to sustainability
*How to manage Risk Necessary condition?Non declining productive base?
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Economy-wide Models in Integrated Assessment of
Climate Policy
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Technical change
• Endogenous technical change appears as R&D, LBD and combination
• Bottom up are more consistent than Top down in LBD
• Exogenous parameters: AEEI • Arbitrary, good guess, production model based?• CRS, DRS, IRS• Time trend, scale effect, R&D, LBD difficult to
separate and varies across functional forms
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baseline
• Population growth• GDP• Energy use• Crude oil prices USD 25-29• Non comparability of bottom up and top
down studies
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Key uncertainties• the mitigation potential projections
include:• Rate of technology development and
diffusion• Cost of future technology• Future energy and carbon prices• Level of activity • Policy drivers, both climate and non-
climate
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Indian EconomyIndian Economy
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Reference case: carbon emission
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Car
bon
emis
sion
(ton
nes)
India(default)
India (derived)
Korea (default)
Korea (derived)
Brazil (default)
Brazil (derived)
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Carbon abatement (%)
Car
bon
tax
(Rps
.)
Default elasticity values
Derived elasticity values
Marginal Abatement Cost (2030): India
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GDP growth
G DP in US D in B illion
0.0200.0400.0600.0800.0
1000.01200.01400.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
G DP inUS D
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Population Below Poverty Line
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Consumption Structure of Rural Households
0.0000
0.1000
0.2000
0.3000
0.4000
0.5000
0.6000
ROH RNASE RASE RAL ROL
Households
Shar
e
Food Products
Non-food Products
Fuel
Services
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Consumption Structure of Urban Households
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
USE UOH USC UCL
Households
Shar
e
Food Products
Non-food Products
Fuel
Services
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Three Pillar Approach
• Economic• Social• Environmental
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Diarrhoea
DiarrhoeaDengue
Gross Cropped Area
Air Pollution
Crime against Children and Women
PolioAir Pollution
MalariaDengue
Electricity Consumption
Whooping Cough, Asthma and Diarrhoea
Air Pollution
Whooping Cough and Asthma
DiarrhoeaCrime against
Women and Children
Whooping Cough, Diarrohea, Malaria, Aasthama
Whooping Cough
MalariaFiscal DeficitMalaria
Malaria
Malaria
Malaria and Diarrhoea
Crime against Children
Consumption of Pesticide Malaria
Whooping Cough, Diarrhoea & Asthama
Dengue and Diarrohea
Crime against Women and Children
DengueAir Pollution
Diarrhoea and MalariaConsumption of
Pesticide
Consumption of Pesticide
N
Classification Of PrioritiesEconomicEnvironmentalSocial
Map 2. Topmost Issues of Concern
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Assam
Gujarat
N
Electricity ConsumptionFiscal Deficit
Map 5. Recommended Top Economic Priorities
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Chandigarh
Uttar Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
GoaN
Crime against ChildrenCrime against Women and ChildrenPolio
Map 4. Recommended Top Social Priorities
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Jammu & Kashmir(Diarrhoea)
Himachal Pradesh(Diarrhoea)Punjab
(Dengue)Uttaranchal
Haryana
Rajasthan
Arunachal Pradesh(Malaria)Delhi
(Dengue)
Sikkim(Whooping Cough, Asthma, Diarrhoea)
Bihar
Nagaland(Whooping Cough,
Asthma)
West Bengal(Diarrhoea)
Meghalaya(W. Cough, Diarrhoea,
Malaria, Asthma) Manipur(Whooping Cough)Jharkhand
(Malaria) Mizoram(Malaria)
Tripura(Malaria)
Chattisgarh(Malaria)
Orissa(Malaria & Diarrhoea)
Daman & Diu Dadra & Nagar Haveli
(Malaria)
Andhra Pradesh(Whooping Cough, Diarrhoea, Asthma)
Karnataka(Dengue & Diarrhoea)
Tamil Nadu(Dengue)
Kerala
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
(Diarrhoea & Malaria)Lakshadweep
Pondicherry
N
Air PollutionConsumption Of PesticideDiseaseGross Cropped Area
Map 3. Recommended Top Environmental Priorities
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Reactive adaptation need assessment
Need Curve - Mahanadi Hotspot
0102030405060
Safe
drin
king
wat
er
Hou
se d
amag
eco
mpe
nsat
ion
Easy
loan
s
Cro
p da
mag
eco
mpe
nsat
ion
Hea
lthFa
cilit
ies
Food
aid
Com
mun
icat
ion
links
PDS
Adaptation Service Demanded
No.
of h
hlds
.
Fig. 71 Need Curve – Mahanadi Hotspot
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Current Practice
Investment for Adaptation Nesds
0100000200000300000400000500000
Safe
drin
king
wat
er
Hou
se d
amag
eco
mpe
nsat
ion
Easy
loan
s
Cro
p da
mag
eco
mpe
nsat
ion
Hea
lthFa
cilit
ies
Food
aid
Com
mun
icat
ion
links
PDS
Adaptation Service Demaned
Inve
stm
ent C
ost (
in R
s)
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India’s National Action Plan
on Climate Change
2009
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Jadavpur University
Thank you
Global Change Programmehttp://juglobalchangeprogram.org/