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Beyond the COVID-19How the pandemic will shape our future
Spring 2020
A pandemic was no surprise…
…but it took us by one, nonetheless
In the following, we identify what we have learned from past pandemics and how we can
use insights from megatrends and futures studies to understand how the current shock to
our interdependent society will shape the world beyond the pandemic COVID-19.
It serves little purpose to dwell on the many reports and countless academics who told us
a pandemic was a very likely risk, or on Bill Gates telling the world in a Ted Talk that “we
are not ready”. Both predictions are painfully evident at this very moment, worldwide.
Behind the development unfolding now is a series of unfortunate events, but underlying
MEGATRENDS are the factors which have escalated COVID-19 from a local or even
regional issue into a global threat to our health, our elderly, our economies, our
businesses, our jobs and even our social structures. Megatrends are tectonic plates
moving beneath the surface and are major pathways of development, global in scope,
and have a lifetime of at least 10-15 years.
At CIFS we work with 14 such megatrends, some of which can be attributed an
unfortunate role in the escalation of events, while others have offered some relief, as we
enter uncharted territory for the leaders and society at large. However, it is now more
evident than ever that:
I. we have little control over Megatrends,
II. they have profound global effects; they had before the pandemic, and they will
after we have weathered this storm; and
III. they will shape our societies in the aftermath, but their trajectories may change
following the biggest global crisis since World War II.
Page 2
“What happens now, will
change the way we do
business, structure our
societies, run our
governments, the way we
work, collaborate, consume,
spend, travel and educate
ourselves…all at once”
Page 3
PANDEMIC REPERCUSSIONS
When in a state of crisis, it is natural to be drawn to certain ways of thinking: 1) bubble mentality, focusing on oneself
and one’s immediate family, rather than society at large, 2) short-termism like hoarding, instead of accommodating
the steady flow of food and goods, and 3) lack of direction and anxiousness of what the future may hold.
As with previous crises, in the wake of which we redrew maps, forged new alliances, rewrote laws and saw the birth
of new theologies – the post-COVID-19 pandemic world and future is shaped by our response and actions, today.
To see the long-term picture through the short-term fog of uncertainty and rapid change, CIFS uses the lens of
megatrends. Megatrends are underlying trajectories, which for the most part stay their course even in times like this.
Working with megatrends provides an invaluable perspective on what your industry, your sector and your business
may look like in the post-pandemic world, allowing you to strategise accordingly. For individuals, futures literacy may
prove to be a more useful skill that ever, on all levels of society.
Knowledge Society
Sustainability
Demographic
Development
Network Society
Democratisation
Commercialisation
Acceleration & Complexity
Globalisation
Focus on Health
Economic
Growth
Polarisation
Individualisation
Where megatrends meet.
Technological Development
Immaterialisation
Pandemic COVID-19
The interdependence and fragility of our modern society with
its underlying socioeconomic systems is raising the stakes
of a global pandemic. A number of megatrends have
increased the risk of a pandemic outbreak, challenging the
resilience of our current progress in health and medicine.
These are Demographic development, Globalisation and
Economic growth.
The first businesses to be hit outside the original epicenter
in Wuhan were those with global supply chains as goods
stopped flowing. Then came the airlines, the airports and
hotels when people, too, stopped travelling. When our social
habits proved too sticky for volunteer adjustments, the bars,
cafes, restaurants and venues also had to close. From there
to now, it has been a chain of dominoes and businesses
being impacted and jobs being at risk.
A full list of CIFS’ 14 megatrends is listed on page 7. Page 4
Sustainability
Demographic Development
Network Society
Democratisation
Commercialisation
Acceleration & Complexity
Globalisation
Focus on Health
Economic Growth
Polarisation
Individualisation
Technological Development
Immaterialisation
Pandemic COVID-19
Page 5
How megatrends help us weather the storm…
Knowledge Society
The most obvious impact of technology is that it
currently offers the vital infrastructure for many of
us to continue working from home and see our
loved ones even while apart.
Meanwhile the knowledge society, as opposed
to industrial or agricultural societies, allow us to
maintain some level of activity in many parts of the
world, despite the standstill.
Decades of democratisation of services, greatly
enabled by the internet, now ensures that most of
the world has equal access to information at a
time of crisis.
The network society has served as an avenue
for true compassionate spirit, in everything from
online communities offering help to those most
vulnerable, and people sharing best practice or
invite to applaud our health workers.
Immaterialisation has buffered the potential
shock to consumption as much of what we
consume is digital products, in no need of physical
exchange.
Sustainability
Demographic Development
Network Society
Democratisation
Commercialisation
Acceleration & Complexity
Globalisation
Focus on Health
Economic Growth
Polarisation
Individualisation
Technological Development
Immaterialisation
Pandemic COVID-19
Knowledge Society
…how may they pave the road to the future
As we started out by saying, the MEGATRENDS
are here to stay, and while they will likely have an
imprint of current events, they will also continue to
chisel and shape profound changes to our everyday
lives, routines and businesses in the years to come.
In the following pages, we give our view on what
some of these changes may entail, as these
changes will pose risks to existing business
models, but also pave the way for opportunities,
innovation, new partnerships and structural
change.
Page 6
Sustainability
Globalisation
Economic Growth
Demographic Development
Democratisation
Commercialisation
Focus on Health
Polarisation
Acceleration & Complexity
Knowledge Society
Technological Development
Network Society
Immaterialisation
Individualisation
The application of knowledge or science to commerce or
industrial processes. Both the innovation and diffusion of
technologies.
Increasingly educated populations and growing
economic value of knowledge where skills,
information, and data constitute primary
economic assets.
Shortening business lifespan, innovation, and
product life-cycles with greater industry
convergence.
Growing gap between extremes, such as top
and bottom market segments, at the expense
of the middle and lower segment.
Increasing desire for personalized products and
services that directly conform to the needs and
interests of any particular user.
Changes in our perceptions and our
values that includes a greater focus on
value over volume.
A society and operating environment where
networks are shaping social interactions and
organisational structures.
Measurable changes in demography covering distribution
and size in human population – including: urbanisation,
ageing, ethnicity & religion and family composition.
The process of interaction and integration
among the people, culture, companies, and
governments of nations across the globe.
Overall increase in productivity and
subsequent growth of wealth at a global
scale.
Meeting the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs.
Global movement towards improving
the health and well-being, transcending
all aspects of public, private, and
professional lives.
Areas in society and the public sector that
become assigned to commercial business.
A process of transformation in which equality, access,
and transparency are improved by accountability,
decentralisation, empowerment and openness.
GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
Megatrends are major pathways of
development, global in scope, and have a
lifetime of at least 10-15 years.
While megatrends are expected trajectories, do
not expect the development to occur linearly.
Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesPage 7
Globalisation
Demographic Development
Democratisation
Focus on Health
Acceleration & Complexity
Technological Development
Network Society
Individualisation
• Will we see the end of cash, as it spreads viruses like Covid-19?
• Will we test blockchain solutions for elections to avoid public
gathering?
• Will autonomous vehicles be tested for delivery in quarantine
zones?
• The pandemic shock will have fewer consequences
for the digital and agile companies. Could this, from
an evolutionary point of view, cause a boost in
agility and digitisation?
• Will urbanisation remain on its trajectory in the aftermath?
• Will fertility rates increase or be suppressed after such a crisis?
• Will the age structures change and reduce the old-age dependency
ratio?
• Will Africa weather the storm better with a younger population?
• Will we regionalise our supply chains?
• Will we blame each other for the crisis?
• Will we strengthen collaboration across the globe?
Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
&
POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENTS
• Will we grow more egocentric or increase our sense
of community?
• Will we see an increase in divorces after the global
quarantine measures?
• Will informal networks become part of formal crisis responses?
• Will the lines between business and volunteering get blurred?
• Will the time spent in quarantine cause people to realise the value of
human interaction, and will it impact physical consumption?
• Will the shift from sick care to healthcare
accelerate along with self-monitoring health?
• Will collection, sharing and application of health
data enhance pattern recognition of diseases?
• Can Google searches on ‘fever’ be an early
warning?
• Will we allow substantial surveillance, if It can curb such pandemics?
• Are civil rights universal or relative?
• Is a democratic process too cumbersome for effective crisis
management?Page 8
Sustainability
Economic Growth
Polarisation
Knowledge Society
Immaterialisation
• Will universities be replaced by on-demand online
education? Will it be offered by new entrants?
• Will our ability to work remotely reshape our future
need for office space?
• Will remote work take holocracy to a global level
and make our geographical orientation
subordinate?
Changes in our perceptions and our
values that includes a greater focus on
value over volume.
• How deep the fall and how quick the recovery?
• Is it time for ‘beyond GDP’ to capture broader well-
being?
• Will we see a period of redistribution of wealth and tax
reforms?
• Will we appreciate the unintended
environmental benefits of the Covid-19
shutdown and accelerate adoption of a post-
carbon lifestyle?
• Will the climate agenda get lost in the
recession?
• Will we reflect on our ability to act when needed
and repeat it on climate?
Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesPage 9
GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
&
POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENTS
• An economic downturn may exacerbate
inequality and regionalisation; what would this
mean for political stability, trust and global
collaboration?
• On the one hand, being more digital has proven a
blessing, but it has also stressed our vulnerabilities and
dependencies. How will we consume in the future?
Commercialisation
• To what degree will the combination of health data available
and smart cities’ sensory infrastructure be commoditised?
• What industries will be hit the hardest by new forms of
crime?
Reflections on global health in the wake of COVID-19:
• A need for thinking holistically about individual and public health
• Legal and ethical debates about the balance between individual and state
rights to control and share health-relevant data
• Upscaling on digital and remote services such as e-health, telemedicine
and mobile health, where people can be reached and monitored in real
time without physical contact
• Improved, increased and optimised data sharing and pattern recognition
to spot potential outbreaks; find cures to and possible mutations in
outbreaks; and establishing the nature of the outbreak as soon as possible
to understand who it affects and how.
• A focus on the fragmentation in (national) systems and critical discussions
on universal healthcare, sick leave and single-payer systems
Cross-country knowledge sharing & lessons learned:
• Best (and worst) practices concerning short- and long-term emergency
response and security measures for resilience.
• The need to rethink what constitutes credible, evidence-based decision
making. Building scientific evidence is a very slow process today, and we
need new and faster evidence gathering methodologies and
infrastructures to ensure the best possible decision making and rapid
responses, while also combating misinformation.
• The need for a global task force working on data sharing and monitoring,
global alert systems, and early interventions
• Greater prioritisation of personal hygiene and the need for stricter rules for
staying home from work if infection is suspected
• A reorientation of healthcare systems from treatment to prevention
Sources: The American Medical Association, 2020; CIFS 2020
When you don’t have your health, you don’t have anything. A pandemic can
silence society, and just as its destructive predecessors in previous centuries,
COVID-19 will obviously have significant impact on the development of global
healthcare systems. Digital health and telemedicine services are struggling to
serve ‘extreme volumes’ of patients during the COVID-19 surge. An increased
emphasis on the promise of digital health will cause the industry to shift and
evolve at the fastest pace to date. Today, more patients expect a standard of
care that is customised to their needs and is delivered by health professionals
in a manner suited to their personal schedules and lifestyles. Three key trends
are rising to the top of the digital health landscape:
• The shift from one-size-fits-all care to personalised health care on demand
• Remote care and counselling for underserved communities
• Collection, utilisation and application of health-related Big Data
COVID-19
changes healthcare
Page 10
Megatrend: Focus on health
Sustainability
GlobalisationEconomic
Growth
Demographic
Development
Focus on
Health
Acceleration
& Complexity
Network
Society
Individualisation
FREE QUARANTINE
PACKAGE:SELECT COLLECTION
Knowledge
Society
Technological
Development
CURIOUS FOR MORE IN-DEPTH KNOWLEDGE ON MEAGTRENDS & FUTURES STUDIES?
Contact Jeanette K. Mortensen for a free quarantine package with a select number of our
members’ reports at [email protected]
OR explore the benefits of becoming a corporate member here: www.cifs.dk/membership/
Societal impacts of
pandemics in a past,
present, and future
perspective
Page 11
Sources: What Is ‘Futures Literacy’ and Why Is It Important? by Nicklas Larsen, Jeanette Kæseler Mortensen & Riel Miller,
2019; Transforming the Future - Anticipation in the 21st century by Riel Miller, Head of Futures Literacy at UNESCO, 2018
In the wake of catastrophes such as pandemics, we have historically seen an increase
in the demand for capabilities related to long-term thinking and exploration of multiple
potential futures to build resilient mindsets, organisations and societies; an ability
referred to as ‘futures literacy’. Futures literacy enables us to become aware of the
sources of our hopes and fears. It improves and sharpens our ability to harness the
power of imagining the future and enables us to more fully appreciate the diversity of
both the world around us and the choices we make.
We collaborate with the Global Futures Literacy Network, established by UNESCO, to
disseminate the capability of futures literacy, useful in times of adversity and rebuilding
communities after catastrophes like pandemics. Replications of flawed mitigation
strategies, behaviors and societal structures of the past can be avoided, by viewing
uncertainty as a resource, rather than an enemy of planning. A futures literate
community utilises uncertainty as an enabler of change and uses the state of crisis to
rethink established practices and search for opportunity.
How to Become a Futures Literate
Page 12
Future proof your organisation &
become a corporate member:
www.cifs.dk/membership/
OR
Check out our next course on risk
management in a 100% virtual
format:
https://bit.ly/2U74A2T
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) is a non-profit, independent institute founded in 1969 by former OECD Secretary-
General Thorkil Kristensen for the betterment of our society. We believe that the future, like the institute itself, belongs to no-one, yet to
everyone. We are by decree, and by our founder’s vision, here to actively contribute to the betterment of our society. We define
betterment through our perception of Nordic values based on trust, equality, openness, integrity and inclusiveness, and a society where
critical decisions about the future are based on insights, not intuition. We are not associated with any university, nor do we receive
public grants.
Today, we are a globally-oriented institute that advises customers and member organisations on a strategic level all over the world. Our
clients and members include some of the world’s largest corporations and organisations across Fortune 500 companies, government
ministries and agencies and non-government institutions. We are wholly self-governing and independent of special interests. Our
mission is to make sense of complexity and enlighten decision-makers about the future, enabling them to make the best possible
decisions in the present and, on this basis, create their own future.
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Page 13
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Amaliegade 5C
DK-1256 Copenhagen K
+45 3311 7176
Copyright 2018. All rights reserved.
This material is only to be shared with the intended recipient.Page 14