BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION · LIVE FUEL MOISTURE SUMMARY / FIRE DANGER ZONE DISCUSSION Placerita Canyon site burned over during Sand Incident in July 2016), and High Country sites

Updated: Tuesday, February 4th, 2020

General Discussion:

January 2020 will pass into the record books as an extremely dry one. Since the end of December, few storms have been able to reach the state, and the few that arrived were windy and devoid of moisture. Precipitation was well below 30% of normal in January with only the Sierras and San Joaquin Valley seeing much in the way of measurable precipitation. Temperatures were a few degrees above normal as a monthly average. Long range outlook do not depict a return of the wet conditions seen late last year. The strong ridge of high pressure which has been ever-present the past few months does not look to dissipate anytime soon. Therefore, a blocking pattern may continue to stifle rainfall by keeping the storm track oriented well north of the district. There may be a few brief periods of wetter conditions but expect this to be more of an exception to a prolonged dry pattern this month. Due to the dry weather, dead fuel moisture has dropped to below normal readings across the entire Geographic Area. Fine fuels are the driest, especially over Southern California where precipitation has been the lightest. Should the dry weather persist as expected, seasonal grasses may show signs of curing on open and south aspects by March. But for now, fire spread should be limited to dead fuels and only during windy periods. However, spring “grassfire season” will likely begin early this year and there may be a spike in resource demand in April. NOTE: This will be the last update to the fuels discussion and this product will be discontinued. Most of this content can be found at: https://www.wfas.net/nfmd/public/states_map.php?state=CA Thank you for your support of this product!

BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION For Southern and Central California

National January 2020 Precipitation Percentiles: Climate Prediction Center Precipitation Outlook 2/1 – 3/1

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LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST LIVE FUEL MOISTURE DATA 2020

Ponderosa (MRD) Gifford (SLRD) Upper Oso (SBRD) Oak Flat (ORD)

Los Alamos (MPRD) Forest Avg % 10 YR Avg Critical Point

FOREST FUEL MOISTURE DATA

CURRENT FOREST AVERAGE: 02/01/20 - 73.91% HISTORICAL AVERAGE: (SINCE 2000) - 73.53% PREVIOUS FOREST AVERAGE: 01/01/20 - 77.44%SAME TIME LAST YEAR: 02/01/19 - 68.00%

Fuel Moisture Average for the Los Padres National Forest

Date 2020 Ave % 5YR Ave % 10YR Ave % Critical PointJanuary 1/1/2020 77.44% 70.45% 70.70% 60%

1/15/2020 77.44% 72.67% 72.65% 60%February 2/1/2020 73.91% 75.56% 74.25% 60%

2/15/2020 76.23% 77.79% 60%March 3/1/2020 85.76% 84.23% 60%

3/15/2020 91.81% 88.13% 60%April 4/1/2020 99.24% 97.06% 60%

4/15/2020 96.32% 96.73% 60%May 5/1/2020 101.28% 98.79% 60%

5/15/2020 99.38% 97.35% 60%June 6/1/2020 92.69% 95.54% 60%

6/15/2020 85.92% 86.67% 60%July 7/1/2020 78.83% 79.73% 60%

7/15/2020 71.88% 72.12% 60%August 8/1/2020 68.34% 67.40% 60%

7/15/2020 63.64% 63.04% 60%September 9/1/2020 60.74% 60.33% 60%

9/15/2020 61.61% 60.26% 60%October 10/1/2020 59.98% 58.82% 60%

10/15/2020 59.79% 58.49% 60%November 11/1/2020 61.52% 60.20% 60%

11/15/2020 60.58% 62.25% 60%December 12/1/2020 64.49% 65.19% 60%

12/15/2020 63.14% 65.96% 60%

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5yr, 10yr & Current 2020 Live Fuel Moisture Forest Average

Critical Point 2020 Ave % 5YR Ave % 10YR Ave %

updated: 2/4/2020

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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

HISTORICAL AVG AVG LFM CRITICAL CASITAS MALIBU SIMI OJAI T.O.

VENTURA COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT LIVE FUEL MOISTURE 2020ALL FUEL BEDS - CHAMISE

VCFD FUEL MOISTURE CHARTCURRENT FUEL MOISTURE AVERAGE: 107%

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 100% PREVIOUS FUEL MOISTURE AVERAGE: 85%

SAME TIME LAST YEAR: 106% Fuels sampled: 01/30/20

Fuels/Fire DiscussionAs is common this time of year, the fuels are finally taking in

the moisture Mother Nature has provided. The vegetation has

taken advantage of the rains we received early last month. With

the higher soil moisture, cooler temperatures, and longer nights,

the vegetation will absorb all it can as fast as possible in

preparation of the spring bloom. With little if any rain in the

forecast, we will have to see how the fuels respond.

VNC VMP

Angeles National Forest

Date Location Elevation Species Old New Average Trend

1/7/2020 Mt. Baldy Village 4,279 Manzanita 92% 95% 93% N/A

1/7/2020 Glendora Motorway 2,400 Chamise 76% 79% 77% N/A

1/3/2020 Lake Hughes 2,090 Chamise 69% 81% 75% N/A

12/6/2019 Lady Bug Curve (Clear Creek) 4,050 Chamise 79% 81% 80% N/A

LOCATION THOMAS

GUIDESPECIES

LOS ANGELES BASIN CURRENT PREVIOUS %CHANGE

GLENDORA RIDGE, GLENDORA 569 E1 CHAMISE 81% 70% 15.7%LA TUNA CANYON, TUJUNGA 503 J5 CHAMISE N/A N/A N/ALAUREL CANYON, MT. OLYMPUS 593 A1 CHAMISE 72% 64% 12.5%WOOLSEY CANYON, CHATSWORTH 499 C7 CHAMISE N/A N/A N/A

GLENDORA RIDGE, GLENDORA 569 E1 HOARYLEAF

CEANOTHUS87% 70% 24.3%

SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS CURRENT PREVIOUS %CHANGE

CLARK MOTORWAY, MALIBU 586 G7 CHAMISE N/A N/A N/A

STUNT ROAD, CALABASAS 589 D5 CHAMISE 80% 68% 17.6%

SCHUEREN ROAD, MALIBU 629 E1 CHAMISE 89% 73% 21.9%

TRIPPET RANCH, TOPANGA 590 B6 CHAMISE 78% 65% 20%

CLARK MOTORWAY, MALIBU 586 G7 BIGPOD

CEANOTHUSN/A N/A N/A

TRIPPET RANCH, TOPANGA 590 B6 BLACK SAGE 179% 123% 45.5%

SANTA CLARITA VALLEY CURRENT PREVIOUS %CHANGE

BITTER CANYON, CASTAIC 4370 A4 CHAMISE 74% 62% 19.4%

PEACH MOTORWAY, SANTA CLARITA 4640 J5 CHAMISE N/A N/A N/A

PLACERITA CANYON, SANTA CLARITA 4642 B2 CHAMISE N/A N/A N/A

BOUQUET CANYON, SAUGUS 4461 G1 CHAMISE 79% 74% 6.8%

BITTER CANYON, CASTAIC 4370 A4 BLACK SAGE 155% 84% 84.5%

BITTER CANYON, CASTAIC 4370 A4 PURPLE SAGE 151% 86% 75.6%

BITTER CANYON, CASTAIC 4370 A4 CALIFORNIA

SAGEBRUSH177% 85% 108.2%

HIGH COUNTRY CURRENT PREVIOUS %CHANGE

TEMPLIN HIGHWAY, CASTAIC 4279 A3 CHAMISE 79% 65% 21.5%

SOLEDAD CANYON RD, ACTON 4464 B7 CHAMISE N/A N/A N/A

TANBARK FLATS, GLENDORA 540 F2 CHAMISE 88% 78% 12.8%

TANBARK FLATS, GLENDORA 540 F2 HOARYLEAF

CEANOTHUS106% 83% 27.7%

SUMMARY CURRENT PREVIOUS %CHANGE

77% 67% 14.2%

82% 69% 19.9%

SANTA CLARITA VALLEY CHAMISE (average) 77% 68% 12.5%

HIGH COUNTRY CHAMISE (average) 84% 72% 16.8%

105% 77% 37%

Incident in Sepember 2017; Woolsey Site burned over during Woolsey Incident in November 2018), Santa

Highway & Soledad Road. The addition of these sites will allow for the tracking of LFM in the High Country

• Sampling date: Los Angeles Basin sites were sampled 12/18/19 (La Tuna site burned over during La Tuna

LIVE FUEL MOISTURE SUMMARY / FIRE DANGER ZONE DISCUSSION

Placerita Canyon site burned over during Sand Incident in July 2016), and High Country sites 12/17/19 (Soledad

Canyon site burned over during Sand Incident in July 2016).

Live Fuel Sampling is being reestablished at 4 Historic sites: Woolsey Canyon, Tanbark Flats, Templin

and Los Angeles Basin. The Santa Monica Mountains, Santa Clarita Valley and All Areas All Fuels Data

Live Fuel Moisture values have leveled off and are consistent with the 30-year average for those species sampled in

Los Angeles County; we would expect the moisture values to remain consistent for the remainder of the season until

the plants emerge from dormancy next spring.

LIVE MOISTURE

LOS ANGELES BASIN CHAMISE (average)

SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS CHAMISE (average)

• LFM is calculated by the formula (Live Sample Weight–Dry Sample Weight)/Dry Sample Weight.

Monica Mountains 12/19/19 (Clark Motorway site burned over during Woolsey Incident in November 2018),

Santa Clarita Valley 12/17/19 (Peach Motorway site burned over during Calgrove Incident in June 2015;

sets and Graphs remain unchanged by these additions.

County of Los Angeles Fire Department

Prevention Services Bureau / Forestry Division

Vegetation Management Unit

12605 Osborne Street

Pacoima, CA 91331-2129

818.890.5720

Live Fuel Moisture Summary

December 20, 2019

ALL AREAS ALL FUELS (average)

• 60% is generally recognized as approaching a critical level of live-fuel moisture.

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Vegetation Management Program Live Fuel Moisture 1981-2019

High Country Chamise (Adenostoma fasiculatum)

Critical 2019 2018 1981-Present

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All Areas, All Fuels - Chamise, Ceanothus, Sages, Sagebrush


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Los Angeles Basin Chamise (Adenostoma fasiculatum)


Mountain Incident La Tuna Incident

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Towsley Incident

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Santa Monica Mountains Chamise (Adenostoma fasiculatum)


Stokes Incident

January 2020 OCFA Live Fuel Moisture Sampling Sites

December 2019

January 2020 Live Fuel Moisture - Black Star Canyon

January 2020 January 2020

January 2020 Live Fuel Moisture – South County

December 2019 December 2019

January 2020

January 2020 January 2020

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Vegetation Management ProgramLive Fuel Moisture 2015-2019

South Orange CountyOld Chamise (Adenostoma fasiculatum)

2015-2017 Old Chamise Average Critical 2018 2019 2020

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2015-2017 New Chamise Average Critical 2018 2019 2020

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2015-2017 Sumac Average Critical 2018 2019 2020

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South Orange CountyBlack Sage (Salvia mellifera)

2015-2017 Black Sage Average Critical 2018 2019 2020

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South Orange CountyCalifornia Sage (Artemisia californica)

Critical 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Black Star CanyonOld Chamise (Adenostoma fasiculatum)

2015-2017 Old Chamise Average Critical 2018 2019 2020

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2015-2017 New Chamise Average Critical 2018 2019 2020

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2015-2017 Black Sage Average Critical 2018 2019 2020

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Black Star CanyonCA Sage (Artemisia californica)

2015-2017 CA Sage Average Critical 2018 2019 2020

Documents

BI-MONTHLY FUELS DISCUSSION · LIVE FUEL MOISTURE SUMMARY / FIRE DANGER ZONE DISCUSSION Placerita Canyon site burned over during Sand Incident in July 2016), and High Country sites