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Momentous Change Ahead for
Local Media in 2011
Tuesday, Jan. 11, 2011
Welcome to today’s webinar. We will start soon.
For Audio: You can either dial in or listen through your speakers.
Once you choose, please do not change settings.
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
• Setting the Context for 2011 and Beyond
– Bobbi Loy-Luster
– Mark Fratrik
• Analyst Roundtable and Discussion
– Moderator, Bobbi Loy-Luster
• Broadcast Media
• Directional Media
• Interactive Media
• Vertical Media
• Mobile Media
• Social Media
• Gearing Up for 2011
– All
• Q & A
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Analyst Roundtable Discussion
Mark FratrikVP, Research
Rick DuceyChief Strategy Officer and PD
Broadcast Local Media
Matt BoothSenior VP and PD
Interactive Local Media
Charles LaughlinSenior VP and PD
The Kelsey Report®
Directional Local MediaPeter Krasilovsky
VP and PD
Vertical Local Media
Michael BolandSenior Analyst and PD
Mobile Local Media
Moderator
Bobbi Loy-LusterVP – Client Services
Jed WilliamsAnalyst and PD
Social Local Media
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Local Media Landscape in 2011 Bobbi Loy-Luster
Setting the context for
success in 2011:
1. Local
2. Mobile
3. Social
Local
Mobile
Social
Value
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Key Drivers in 2011
Where
• 54% of males are willing to share their location.
Now
• Google searches from mobile devices grew 130% year over year.
Share
• Facebook is the third-largest country in the world.
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
The Economic Environment
– Continued growth in 2010 though with little improvement in
unemployment• Businesses hesitant to expand
• Consumers hesitant to spend
• Advertisers apprehensive?
– Some signs of consumer spending increases in fourth quarter
with some hope for advertising increasing
– Strong year for political advertising — especially for local
television stations
– Expectations for 2011:
• Continued growth with limited relief in unemployment
• Consumers becoming more confident and spending more
• Advertisers increasing their spending slowly over the next few years
– Movement of spending from some traditional media (e.g.,
newspapers) to interactive/digital media
Mark Fratrik
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
The Economic Environment
-6.4
-0.7
3.5
5.7
3.2
1.62.0
2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2
(8.0)
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gro
wth
Ra
te
2009
Actuals
Forecasts
2010 2011
Quarterly Real GDP Growth
Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting
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The BIA/Kelsey Media Indices
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1/4
/2010
1/8
/2010
1/1
4/2
010
1/2
1/2
010
1/2
7/2
010
2/2
/2010
2/8
/2010
2/1
2/2
010
2/1
9/2
010
2/2
5/2
010
3/3
/2010
3/9
/2010
3/1
5/2
010
3/1
9/2
010
3/2
5/2
010
3/3
1/2
010
4/7
/2010
4/1
3/2
010
4/1
9/2
010
4/2
3/2
010
4/2
9/2
010
5/5
/2010
5/1
1/2
010
5/1
7/2
010
5/2
1/2
010
5/2
7/2
010
6/3
/2010
6/9
/2010
6/1
5/2
010
6/2
1/2
010
6/2
5/2
010
7/1
/2010
7/8
/2010
7/1
4/2
010
7/2
0/2
010
7/2
6/2
010
7/3
0/2
010
8/5
/2010
8/1
1/2
010
8/1
7/2
010
8/2
3/2
010
8/2
7/2
010
9/2
/2010
9/9
/2010
9/1
5/2
010
9/2
1/2
010
9/2
7/2
010
10/1
/2010
10/7
/2010
10/1
3/2
010
10/1
9/2
010
10/2
5/2
010
10/2
9/2
010
11/4
/2010
11/1
0/2
010
11/1
6/2
010
11/2
2/2
010
11/2
9/2
010
12/3
/2010
12/9
/2010
12/1
5/2
010
12/2
1/2
010
12/2
8/2
010
BIA/Kelsey – Radio Market Cap Index
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
The BIA/Kelsey Media Indices
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1/4/2010
2/2/2010
3/3/2010
3/31/2010
4/29/2010
5/27/2010
6/25/2010
7/26/2010
8/23/2010
9/21/2010
10/19/2010
11/16/2010
12/15/2010
BIA/Kelsey Local Media Stock Index
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
The BIA/Kelsey Media Indices
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1/4/2010
2/2/2010
3/3/2010
3/31/2010
4/29/2010
5/27/2010
6/25/2010
7/26/2010
8/23/2010
9/21/2010
10/19/2010
11/16/2010
12/15/2010
BIA/Kelsey - Local Media Stock Index vs. S&P 500
S&P 500 BIA/Kelsey Local Media Index
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
• Mobile DTV
Arrives
• Cutting the Cord
on Cable
• Content
Regains the
Crown
• Mobile DTV Rolls Out
Nationally
• Cable Cord Cutters Pass
Along the Scissors
• HD Radio Finds Its
Groove
• Content Trumps
Technology
• The Internet Learns How
to Scale
Broadcast Media — 2011 Rick Ducey
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Broadcast Media — 2011
Mobile DTV Arrives
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Broadcast Media — 2011
Cutting the Cord on Cable
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Broadcast Media — 2011
Content Regains the Crown
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Directional Media — 2011
• Consolidation
• Revenues
Stabilize
• Publisher Focus
on Web Site
Opportunity
• Debt Drives Consolidation
• Debt Drives Divestment
• Directory Revenues
Stabilize
• YPG (CA) Makes a U.S.
Play
• Publisher Focus on Web
Site Opportunity
• Directory Pubs’ Deal-a-Day
Efforts Falter
Charles Laughlin
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Directional Media — 2011
Consolidation
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Directional Media — 2011
Revenues Stabilize
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Digital Content
Web Site
SEM
Video
SEO
E-Mail/ Direct Mail
IYP
MobileReputation
Management
Request for Quote
Landing Page
Fan Page
Directional Media — 2011
Publishers
Focus on
Web Site
Opportunity
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Interactive Media — 2011
• Google Launches Direct Local
Sales Force
• U.S. Business Listings Become
Free, With Strings
• Social Messaging Takes Off
• Screening and Identity Companies
Make a Play in Local and Search
• Long-Tail Question-and-Answer
Content Grows in Importance
• IYP and Local Search Platforms
Get Squeezed From Two Sides
• Is It the Late ’90s All Over Again?
• A Bigger Audio Ad Network
Appears
• LinkedIn: the Sleeping Giant
• IYP and Local
Search Squeeze
• Listings Are Free
• Google Goes
Pavement
Matt Booth
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Interactive Media — 2011
IYP & Local Search Squeeze
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Interactive Media — 2011
Listings Are Free
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Interactive Media — 2011
Google Goes Pavement
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
• National Retail
Gets Into Group
Buying
• Retail SMBs
Track Online
Inventory
• Real Traction for
New Verticals
• Morphing of Group Buying &
General SMB Services
• National Retail Gets Involved in
Group Buying
• $25/month Key SMB Entry Point
• Widespread Use of Integrated
Online Shopping Portals
• Facebook Marketplaces a
Breakout Hit
• LBS Check-Ins Become Part of
Marketplaces Offering
• Retail SMBs Track Online
Inventory
• Real Traction for New Verticals
Vertical Media — 2011 Peter Krasilovsky
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Vertical Media — 2011
Meets
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Vertical Media — 2011
Retail SMBs Track Online Inventory
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Vertical Media — 2011
Real Traction for New Verticals
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
• Apps vs. Mobile
Web
• Voice & Visual
Search
• Mobile
Shopping
• Mobile, by the Numbers
• Platform Wars Rage On
• Smartphones Dominate
• Apps vs. Mobile Web
• Check-Ins/LBS
• Mobile Shopping Lifts Off
• Mobile Discovery
• Voice & Visual Search
• Smaller & Better Ads
• Tab Forward
Mobile Media — 2011 Mike Boland
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Mobile Media — 2011
Apps vs. Mobile Web
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Mobile Media — 2011
Image Credit: Google
Voice & Visual Search
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Mobile Media — 2011
Mobile Shopping
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
• SMBs Go Social
• Local Tweet
• Check-In for
Value
• SMB Social Adoption
Mainstreams
• Facebook’s Next Frontier:
Transactions
• Twitter Inches Forward
with Locals
• Shopping Gets (More)
Socialized
• Check-Ins Become Value
Exchanges
• SMBs Demand
Differentiation With ERPM
Social Media 2011 Jed Williams
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Social Media — 2011
48%
SMBs Go Social
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Social Media — 2011
Local Tweet
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Social Media — 2011
Check In for Value
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Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Getting Ready for 2011
What Why
Invest in new media initiatives More transformation in 2011 than in
previous three years; don’t be left
on the platform
Test, test, test Continuous testing drives product
design
All media is mobile Smartphone penetration continues
— Verizon gets the iPhone
Drive for bundles Bundles of solutions are better for
retention
Shift from traditional to digital will
continue
Transition continues — SMBs
shifted considerable dollars to
digital
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Upcoming Event -
New Local Marketplaces: search, mobile, deals
On the agenda:• BIA/Kelsey’s Rundown on the Local Online and Mobile Economy
• The Financial/Venture View of ―Local‖
• Local Sales Leaders
• The Vertical Revolution
• Advertisers Talk!
• The Next Wave of Local Leaders in Verticals
• Location Based Service Leaders
• Local Retail Solution Leaders
• Local Search and Mobile Local Media
• SuperForum: The Next Steps for Group Buying
• National Advertisers Go Local
March 21-23, 2011
Boston Marriott Copley Place
Boston, Massachusetts
Register early for best price
37
Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
BIA/Kelsey’s Continuous Advisory Services
• Covering all local media:
– Interactive, mobile, verticals, broadcasting, directories
• Giving clients ongoing direct access to BIA/Kelsey’s:
– Current research
– Expert analysis
– Strategic insights
– Unbiased advice and consultation
• Clients refer to our CAS services as their very own in-house research
and competitive intelligence team to support business activities:
– Sales transformation, audience aggregation, traffic monetization, market
sizing, product development and segmentation, M&A activities, etc.
For more information and to request a free report, contact
Steve Passwaiter at [email protected] or (703) 818-2425.
38
Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.
Question-and-Answer Session
Q&AsTo submit a question, please use the control panel on your screen.
On-Demand Webinar
All attendees will receive a follow up e-mail within 24 hours
with a link to an on-demand version of this webinar.
For More Information and Conference Registration
Please visit us at: www.bia.com or www.kelseygroup.com.
Contact Us
To contact us about our programs, please e-mail
Steve Passwaiter at [email protected].
Thank you.