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Big, social, and media-rich

OLAC 2012

19 October 2012

Eric ChildressConsulting Project ManagerOCLC Research

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• Big patterns• Media patterns• 50 years ago

Talk Map

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Big Patterns

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New companies blend:

•retail/advertising

•devices/OS

•content

•social

Players & positions shift…

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• Passing…• The exclusive reign of:

• a professional creator corps,

• publishing houses as gatekeepers, and,

• TV network & cinema studio executives as primary selectors of mass culture

• Big corporate funding & control

• Publisher owns copyright

• Packaged media

• Rising…• The “everyman” creative

class

• Low cost means of composing, editing and publishing

• Mobile devices as capture and creation platforms

• It’s all content

• Content is becoming social

• Crowdfunding of creators

• Many copyright strategies

• Digital

The creative ecology

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• GoodReads 11M members (390M books on their shelves)

• LibraryThing 1.6M members (76M books cataloged)

• Mendeley - 1.6M researchers (200M research documents)

• Academic.edu - 1M users (1.6M papers)

Resources are social

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Media Patterns

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Gaming

• Physical media• US, UK, Japan, &

Australian sales falling

• Console games dying?

• Game stores under pressure

• Digital format content• Sales rising

• Many forms, channels

• New business model: Crowdfunding

Patterns - Gaming

Project Eternity crowdfunded role-playing game

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Tidbit (Gaming)

• Game consoles can serve as platforms for more than games…

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Compact discs

• 30 yrs ago: Oct.1982: 1st commercial release: Billy Joel's 52nd Street

• 1st CD to beat its LP sales: Dire Straits' Brothers in Arms (1985)

LPs

• 2011: LP sales (3.9M) - up 39% over 2010

Patterns – Audio (Music)

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Digital music:

• 2011: digital track sales exceed CD sales

• Most popular track in 2012 (thru July):

• “Somebody That I Used To Know” / Gotye

• Internet radio• Pandora (150M users) -

6.53% of all radio listening in the U.S

Other trends:• Streaming/cloud

• iTunes Match

• Amazon Cloud Player

• New business models:

• Crowdfunding• Records: Lots of sites

• New: tour-funding…

• 360 deals• Labels and artists share

tour, recording, etc. revenue

Patterns – Audio (Music) (2)

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Tidbit (Music) – 1-bit symphony

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Tidbit (Music) – Algae music

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DVR / devices / on-demandDelayed viewing (DVR)

• 7-14 days later: Significant viewership for some shows

• “TV Everywhere” initiative – watch shows on any device

• Also: apps from ABC, HBO, etc.

• 10% of U.S. tablet owners watch videos daily

• Netflix = 33% of all peak-hour downstream Internet traffic in North America

• YouTube = 4B hours watched/month

Network TV

• Brand: Viewers know show, but may not know network

• Older viewers - steady

• Younger viewers - down

Patterns – TV & On-demand

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Tidbit (Netflix)

• Netflix will caption 100% of videos by 2014

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Industry worries:

• Rise of low-cost movie rental & subscription services

• Streaming revenue up

• Threat of Internet piracy

• Declines in DVD sales• Blu-ray rising significantly

• Overall DVD sales declining

Theatrical releases:

• Movie tickets sales• 1.57B (2002) – 1.28B

(2011)

• Revenue up (due to significant price increases)

• Studios like selling live “experience” (e.g., 3D) – no threat of piracy

Patterns - Films

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Tidbits – What films sell well?

Source: the Numbers

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Tidbit – How hit films are born

Source: the Numbers

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Tidbit – Harry Potter franchise

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Fifty years ago…

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On 5 October 1962, Dr. No released – 1st Bond film starring Sean Connery ; worldwide premiere was in London

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50 years ago… Love Me Do

On 5 October 1962 “Love Me Do” was released as a single (B-side: “P.S. I Love You”) in the U.K.

The song is an early Lennon–McCartney composition, principally written by Paul McCartney in 1958–1959 while playing truant from school at age 16.

Source: Wikipedia.

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Thank you