BILD Calgary Region...2018/02/14 · *Information based on Executive Management Report 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary 17 V05 Select Fall 2017 Housing Starts Forecasts for Calgary (2018-2022)

V052018-02-14 BILD Calgary

BILD Calgary RegionCity Manager Jeff Fielding

Wednesday February 14, 2018


Coming together is a beginning.

Keeping together is progress.

Working together is success.

Henry Ford

2


OUR VISION Calgary: a great place to make a living,

A great place to make a life.

372017.

27%

3

V05

Operating Savings & Efficiencies 2015-2018

$168M

$115M

$54M

$92M

$41M

$ 470 million

Operating Cost Reductions & Efficiencies

Cost Containment - Labour

One Time Operating Cost Savings

Intentional Savings

Utility Rate Reductions

4

V05

10 Year Infrastructure Gap

* Source: Infrastructure Status Report

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004 2007 2010 2013 2017

$ (

BIL

LIO

NS

)

Operating Gap Capital Maintenance Gap

Capital Growth Gap Total Infrastructure Gap

2018-02-14 BILD Calgary

2018-02-14 BILD Calgary 5

V05

Infrastructure – Assets Physical Condition

80%76% 78%

95%88%

14% 17% 16% 3.50% 9.70%6% 7% 6%1.50% 2.30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2007 2010 2013 2017

Good Fair Poor

*Infrastructure Status Report

Pe

r ce

nt o

f a

sse

ts

Year



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Total Debt Outlook 2012-2028

71%68% 66%

57%56%

65%67% 68%

58% 56% 56%

58%

62%

65%

60%

53%50%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,0002

01

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

$ m

illio

ns

Tax-Supported Self Supported Self Sufficient Tax Supported MSI Green Line Stage 1 (Scenario 3) Council Debt Limit

Debt Limit


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Debt Impact Outlook


Existing debt-pre-Green Line Project

Existing debt-pre-Green Line Project

Green Line Project Green Line Project

Debt Limit

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2025 Debt Balance – Low ($ B)

2025 Debt Balance – High ($ B)

$ b

illio

ns

Debt impact of projects under consideration

8

V05

Building Permit Values 2007-2017

Billion $

Source: The City of Calgary, Corporate Economics

$4.6B

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10-Year Average $4.8B


V05

Economic Assumptions


Indicator 2015 2016 2017 2018

Action

PlanActual

Action

PlanActual

Action

PlanCurrent

Action

PlanForecast

Calgary Region

GDP Growth 2.5% -3.7% 2.3% -1.2% 2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 2.4%

Unemployment 4.5% 6.1% 4.4% 9.0% 4.5% 8.6% 4.5% 6.7%

Oil Price (WCS

US$/bbl)N.A. $35.70 N.A. $29.50 N.A. $37.60 N.A. $40.50

City of Calgary

Population 1,196,0001,231,00

0

1,223,00

0

1,235,00

01,251,000 1,246,000 1,274,000 1,259,000

Housing starts 9,400 10,600 10,000 7,700 12,300 6,300 10,800 4,400

Building permits ($

billions)$6.1 $6.3 $5.6 $4.7 $4.5 $4.6 $4.4 $3.6

10

V05

Calgary is a great place to make a living

Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with each statement using a scale from 1 to 10, where “1” is “completely disagree” and “10” is “completely agree.”

Base: Valid respondents (Bases vary)

16%

15%

21%

29%

35%

52%

50%

59%

57%

55%

22%

23%

13%

9%

8%

10%

12%

7%

5%

2

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Completely Agree (10) Agree (9, 8 or 7) Neutral (6 or 5) Disagree (4, 3, 2 or 1)

68%

65%

80%

86%

90%

% Agree

68%

Late Fall 2017


V05

Current Economic Situation (Businesses)

1% 1% 4%

22% 20%

47%

45% 49%

40%

31% 29%

8%

Calgary Alberta Canada

How would you rate the current economic situation in…

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know

Base: All respondents n=320February 14, 2018


V052018-02-14 BILD Calgary 13

Trust and Confidence

V05

Non-residential market value assessment change

7%

-4%

-6%

-5%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2015

2016 2017 2018


V05

Non-residential Assessment Values & Municipal Tax Examples

Property 2015 2016 2017 Trend

Downtown AA Office 1,432,050,000 1,294,900,000 1,013,010,000 Assessment: ↓

$15,375,491 $15,738,862 $14,062,504 Taxes: ↓

Downtown A Office 374,440,000 330,730,000 257,310,000 Assessment: ↓

$4,020,250 $4,019,858 $3,571,952 Taxes: ↓

Downtown B Office 65,630,000 54,640,000 37,660,000 Assessment: ↓

$704,650 $664,122 $522,792 Taxes: ↓

Suburban A Strip Mall 19,320,000 19,190,000 20,400,000 Assessment:↑

$207,433 $233,245 $283,191 Taxes: ↑

Suburban B Strip Mall 1,940,000 1,960,000 1,980,000 Assessment:↑

$20,829 $23,823 $27,486 Taxes: ↑

Enclosed Shopping Centre 83,880,000 75,360,000 76,560,000 Assessment: ↕

$900,594 $915,963 $1,062,798 Taxes: ↑

Large Industrial

Warehouse

119,520,000 120,600,000 117,450,000 Assessment: ↕

$1,283,250 $1,465,833 $1,630,429 Taxes: ↑

Do

wn

tow

n

Su

bu

rban


V05

31%

44%

18%

5%

2%

To what degree do you think that now is a good time or a bad time for The City of Calgary to be investing in new projects like roads, public transportation, and local facilities?

Very good time Somewhat good time Somewhat bad time Very bad time Don't know

Good

time:

75%

Base: All respondents n=320

Sentiment about Timing for The City to Invest in New Projects (Businesses)

February 14, 2018


V05

The City’s Capital Investment (2015-2017)

198,782

323,624

520,319

673,051

813,712

947,053

1,103,285

1,256,828

1,403,272

1,742,414

118,589

189,367

283,041

391,323

487,703

579,496

724,494 798,745

907,087

1,210,979

176,411

254,140

376,353 514,087

629,458

761,236

961,291

1,067,295

1,254,228

1,547,765

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

Cap

ital

Inv

estm

en

t (A

ctu

al

Sp

en

d)

in B

illio

ns (

$)

2017 Actual Spend 2015 Actual Spend 2016 Actual Spend

Annual 5 year Average 2010-2015 ($1.2 B)

*Information based on Executive Management Report


V05

Select Fall 2017 Housing Starts Forecasts for Calgary (2018-2022)

4,4004,100

5,900

8,000

9,600

8,160

8,5608,960

9,5209,747

10,166 10,354 10,564

8,391

8,391

8,391 8,391

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Corporate Economics (City of Calgary) CMHC (Low) CMHC (High)

Conference Board of Canada Altus Group (Best Scenario)

Note 1: Conference Board and CMHC forecasts are published at the CMA level. They are multiplied by 0.8 to reflect Calgary's historical 80% share of CMA housing starts.

Note 2: Altus Group data comes from a housing forecast commissioned by The City. Altus data reflects "change in occupied dwellings“, and is based on a 5 year total that has been annualized.February 14, 2018



“Calgary’s housing market is Goldilocks’ dream – not too hot,

not too cold, just comfortably right in between.”

19

V05

Housing Affordability: Housing Costs as a Per Cent of Income

39

.6

31

.0 37

.7 43

.0

72

.0 79

.7

43

.1

33

.2

42

.3

42

.4

85

.8

11

1.8

25

.6

20

.0

28

.4 34

.3 38

.6 44

.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Calgary Edmonton Ottawa Montreal Toronto Vancouver

Aggregate of all categories Single-family detached Condominium

Pe

r ce

nt o

f in

com

e

Source: RBC Economics. Housing Trends & Affordability, June 2017


Housing Affordability: Housing Costs as a Per Cent of Income

V05

Consistency and Predictability for Approvals


51%

78%

96%

30%

54%

74%63%

74%

80%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017

Timeline Commitments Met

Initial Team Review Detailed Team Review Decision


V05

Development Facilitation

2017 performance & metrics

Initial Team Review 3-year trend 2015 2016 20172016/2017

Change

Development Permit: Multi-Disciplinary 42% 72% 97% 97%

Land Use Amendment: Excluding Secondary Suites 54% 69% 95% 95%

Land Use Amendment: Secondary Suites Only 75% 86% 100% 100%

Subdivision by Instrument 42% 85% 98% 98%

Subdivision by Tentative Plan 41% 76% 89% 89%

Detailed Team Review Performance 3-year trend 2015 2016 20172016/2017

Change






Decisions Performance 3-year trend 2015 2016 20172016/2017

Change






Development Permit: Technical 83% 85% 90% 90%

Development Permit: Infills 61% 69% 77% 77%


V05

Ongoing Investments

• Mix of funded and unfunded

• 27 actively developing new communities with land use

Future Investment Areas

• Unfunded

• 9 Area Structure Plans

• 13-15 future new communities (11 business cases) at this time

Current and Future New Communities

Future new community with significant non-

residential component

Area Structure Plan boundary


V05

As of early 2018, there are 27 actively developing communities with land use approved:

• 8 communities have recently been initiated, or are expected within 1 year

• 10 communities will complete single residential build out within 3 years

Developing Communities

New Community Current

Supply (vacant, serviced lots)

New Community Demand

(2018-2022 forecast)

Difference between supply

and forecasted demand

Single Residential 14,500 16,700 (2,200)

Multi Residential 31,150 8,050 23,100

Total 45,650 24,750 20,900

February 14, 20182019-2022 budget deliberations will inform supply


V05

Economic Development Investment Fund Guiding Principles

and catalytic investments

Strategic

and deal closing mechanisms

Deal making

nimble, responsive and

rigorous processes

Fast

partnerships and expertise

Leverage funding

where appropriate

Utilize third-party

objective validation

(ROI) and material impact

Generate return

on investment

and accountability

Transparency

made based on solid non-political

risk/reward and cost/benefit

analysis

Decisions Not business

as usual

and innovative to

compete

Calgary must

be bold


V05

Green Line and Winter Olympics

Key date: March 31

• Solidify Venue info / Negotiations

• Deadline for Cities to enter Candidature Process by joining Dialogue Stage

February 14, 2018


http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi2rcvf5uvOAhVY42MKHSDbAaoQjRwIBw&url=http://variety.com/2015/tv/asia/beijing-to-host-2022-winter-olympic-games-1201554090/&bvm=bv.131286987,d.cGc&psig=AFQjCNEwfCeBzsi9J9-aU5DSDCgmY3eLgg&ust=1472737852767421

V05

Project

Timeline

Green Line Stage 1



Coming together is a beginning.

Keeping together is progress.

Working together is success.

Henry Ford

28


Thank You

29

Documents

BILD Calgary Region...2018/02/14 · *Information based on Executive Management Report 2018-02-14 BILD Calgary 17 V05 Select Fall 2017 Housing Starts Forecasts for Calgary (2018-2022)