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Bitumen and BiocarbonLand Use Conversions and Loss of

Biological Carbon Due to BitumenOperaons in the Boreal Forests of

Alberta, Canada

Global Forest Watch Canada, 2009 (Edmonton, Alberta, Canada)

Peter LeeRyan Cheng

Highlights:

This paper provides esmates of land use changes, biological carbon content and consequent potenal greenhouse emissions

due to exisng and future surface mining and in situ extracon of bitumen in Alberta, Canada. The highlights of this paper

include the following:

1. Land use changes resulng from surface mining and the carbon content in these changed areas The natural ecosystems

that have undergone or may undergo land use change into open pit mines, tailings ponds, mine waste, overburden piles andassociated facility plants, and other major infrastructure resulng from exisng and potenal surface mining acvies total

488,968 ha (including 209,614 ha of peatlands and mineral wetlands and 205,590 ha of upland forest). The above and below

ground biological carbon content of this area is at least 140.7 megatonnes.

2. Land use changes resulng from in situ operaons and the carbon content in these changed areas The natural

ecosystems that have undergone or may undergo land use change into central facilies, exploraon wells, producon wells,

access roads, pipelines and other infrastructure from exisng and potenal in situ operaons total 1,124,919 ha. This area

contains at least 438.2 megatonnes of above and below ground biological carbon.

3. GHG emissions from loss of biological carbon due to land use changes caused by bituminous sands industrial acvies

Although not all of the biological carbon contained within ecosystems changed by bitumen industrial acvies will be emied

into the atmosphere, if all of this carbon (578.9 megatonnes) were emied, this would amount to 2,121.3 megatonnes of CO2.

While this scenario is unrealisc, it nevertheless highlights the signicance of potenal greenhouse gas emissions from therelease of biological carbon stores from those natural ecosystems that will be changed by a full development scenario of the

bituminous sands. Our likely esmate of releases under a full development scenario would be 238.3 megatonnes of carbon,

873.4 megatonnes of CO2, or 41.1% of the total carbon contained in the area disturbed by bitumen industrial operaons.

Over 100 years, this would average out to 8.7 megatonnes CO2

per year, with great variability year-to-year and decade-to-

decade. Although reclamaon will sequester carbon from the atmosphere, it is unlikely to replace most of the lost biocarbon

for thousands of years. Canadas total emissions for 2007 were 747 megatonnes CO2eq from all sources and Canadas Kyoto

target is 558.4 megatonnes. The bituminous sands industry reported emissions of 28.5 megatonnes of CO2eq in 2004, 35.8

megatonnes of CO2eq in 2007, and have been projected to be 113.1-141.6 megatonnes CO

2eq in 2020.

Citaon: Lee P and R Cheng. 2009. Bitumen and Biocarbon: Land use changes and loss of biological carbon due to bitumen

operaons in the boreal forests of Alberta, Canada. Global Forest Watch Canada. Edmonton, Alberta. 40 pp.


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Bitumen and Biocarbon (Global Forest Watch Canada, 2009) Page2

Acknowledgments

We thank the Ivey Foundaon, the EJLB Foundaon and Greenpeace Canada for their nancial support of this project.

We are very grateful to Ducks Unlimited Canada for making available to us their land cover data of north-eastern Alberta,

for this project.

We acknowledge the contribuons of the Natural Resources Defense Council, Ducks Unlimited, Canadian Boreal

Iniave, GHGenius, Pembina Instute, and Canadian Parks and Wilderness SocietyNorthern Alberta Chapter foradvancing knowledge on the issue of biological carbon and bituminous sands industrial operaons.

We thank those individuals whose inial advice or feedback on earlier dras of this paper contributed to improvements

made during its development and nalizaon: Alberta Sustainable Resource Development (Doug Sklar and sta); Ma

Carlson; Petr Cizek; Ducks Unlimited Canada, Greenpeace Canada and Greenpeace Internaonal (Dr. Janet Coer), Simon

Dyer of the Pembina Instute; Don OConnor; Aran OCarroll; Dr. Kevin Timoney; Marn Von Mirbach.

The content of this paper is the full responsibility of Global Forest Watch Canada.


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Bitumen and Biocarbon (Global Forest Watch Canada, 2009) Page

Contents

Highlights ........................................................................... 1

Acknowledgments ............................................................ 2

Introducon ....................................................................... 4

Contents of this paper .................................................... 4

A focus on peatlands ...................................................... 8

Background ........................................................................ 9

Capacity and producon growth of Canadas bituminoussands .............................................................................. 9

GHG emissions from bitumen producon ..................... 10

Canadian Boreal Iniave / Ducks Unlimited Canada (CBI/

DUC) and GHGenius analysis ........................................ 12

Failure of studies to perform full bituminous sands

industrial life cycle CO2eq emission assessments ......... 13

Methods .......................................................................... 15

Results ............................................................................. 20

Land use changes resulng from surface and in situ

mining and the carbon content of the changed

areas ............................................................................. 20

Natural ecosystems changed by bitumen surface

mining ........................................................................... 20

Peatlands: carbon sequestraon loss from disturbance of

natural peatlands ......................................................... 20

Carbon emissions into the atmosphere due to loss of

biocarbon from bitumen industrial operaons ............ 30

Discussion ....................................................................... 30

Comparison of results with CBI/DUC and GHGenius

analysis ......................................................................... 29

Peatlands ........................................................................ 29

Under- and over-esmaon of biocarbon and GHG

emissions ...................................................................... 30Implicaons for life cycle emissions of GHGs ................. 32

Conclusions ...................................................................... 32

Glossary ........................................................................... 34

Literature Cited ................................................................ 36

Annex: Review Process .................................................... 38

List of Figures

Figure 1. Albertas bituminous sands ................................ 5

Figure 2. Characterisc boreal ecosystems in the

bituminous sands region ................................................. 6

Figure 3. Bitumen mining acvity ..................................... 7

Figure 4. Albertas Oil Sands Administraon Area, Surface

Mineable Area, all approved and proposed surface

mining project areas (as of December 2008), and exisng

bitumen surface leases (as of December 2008) for both

surface mining and in situ operaons ............................ 17

Figure 5. Land cover types in the Oil Sands Administraon

Area (aer Ducks Unlimited, 2009) ................................ 18

Figure 6. Soil organic carbon content for northeastern

Alberta (aer Tarnocai and Lacelle, 1996) ..................... 19

Figure 7. Growth of bitumen surface mining between 1974

and June 1, 2009 ........................................................... 23

Figure 8. Surface mining footprint from exisng

disturbances as of June 1, 2009, and from Approved and

Proposed projects .......................................................... 24

Figure 9. In situ footprint assuming development of all

leases approved as of December 2008 within the Oil

Sands Administraon Area and assuming similar extent of

footprint as the OPTI-Nexen project at Long Lake ......... 25

Figure 10. Natural land cover of Suncor and Syncrude

surface mining area ........................................................26

Figure 11. Land cover of Surface Mineable Area ............. 27

Figure 12. Peatlands within the Surface Mineable

Area ................................................................................ 28

List of tables

Table 1. Esmates of GHG emissions from the bituminous

sands area ...................................................................... 11

Table 2. Reported GHG emissions from bituminous sands

industries for the Oil Sands Administraon Area2004-2007 (large GHG emiers; Environment Canada,

2008) .............................................................................. 11

Table 3. Average results of 13 models, and the result of the

GHGenius model specically, of GHG emissions from the

producon of fuels from bituminous sands compared to

convenonal oil (Charpener et al., 2009) .................... 11

Table 4. Esmates of disturbed area and soil organic

carbon (CBI/DUC study based on 2006 Landsat imagery)

surface mining ............................................................. 12

Table 5. Esmates of disturbed area and soil carbon

(GHGenius) generic oil ................................................ 12

Table 6. Methods used to calculate land area and natural

ecosystems changes, above and below ground biocarbon

stores, and lost carbon sequestraon potenals in

changed areas within peatlands, resulng from

exisng and future surface mining and in situ operaons

areas ............................................................................... 15

Table 7. Area changed (and potenally changed) by

bitumen surface mining and in situ operaons and carbon

content in changed areas ............................................... 21

Table 8. Bitumen surface mining areas: original (before

bituminous sands industrial acvies) land cover -

generalized classes ......................................................... 21Table 9. Bitumen surface mining areas: original (before

bituminous sands industrial acvies) land cover -

detailed classes .............................................................. 22

Table 10. Potenal loss of annual sequestraon potenal

from land use change of peatlands resulng from bitumen

surface mining and from in situ operaons ................... 22

Table 11. Emissions from loss of biocarbon from bitumen

industrial acvies ......................................................... 31


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above and below ground biocarbon found in vegetaon

soils and peat);

Release of gases from mine faces;

Processing and upgrading of the bitumen;

Rening the synthec crude oil;

Transportaon of the synthec crude oil and bitumen;

Burning of the rened products by end-users;

Transportaon of workers;

Facilies construcon and decommissioning;

Manufacturing and disposal of heavy equipment.

Contents of this paper

This paper provides esmates of land use changes,

biological carbon content and consequent potenal

greenhouse emissions due to exisng and future surface

mining and in situ extracon of bitumen in Alberta,

Canada. It provides a special focus on land use change of

peatlands, carbon content, loss of sequestraon potenal

and the potenal resulng impacts on the regional

and provincial peatland ecosystems to connue to act

collecvely as a carbon sink.

Introducon

There is a need for informaon about the environmental

impacts of bituminous sands industrial acvies in Alberta,

Canada. The bituminous sands region in Alberta occupies

14,000,000 ha (Figure 1), and is located within Canadian

boreal forest ecosystems (Figure 2). The development

of bituminous sands is an energy intensive process

and introduces large industrial facilies into the boreallandscape (Figure 3).

The extent of greenhouse gas (GHG) polluon specically

is a maer of growing naonal and internaonal concern

(Bramley et al., 2005). The concern is exacerbated by

uncertainty as there is a paucity of relevant and complete

GHG emissions data available to the public while rapid

and major expansion of the bituminous sands industry is

ongoing.

The growing concern is also exacerbated by Albertas

and Canadas failure to curb their large and growing

GHG emissions. In 2004, Canada produced 2.2% of all

global emissions of carbon dioxide, despite having less

than 0.5% of the global populaon. Canada was also the

tenth worst in the world for emissions per capita, behind

the United States and a few small countries with small

populaons and large industries involved in the extracon

and transportaon of fossil fuels (Marland et al., 2007).

Each Canadian produces twice as much carbon dioxide as

a person from Germany, 3.3 mes as much as a person

from France, 3.4 mes as much as a person from Sweden,

and more than ve mes as much as a person fromChina. Alberta, the home of Canadas bituminous sands,

contributes 31.4% of total Canadian emissions despite

having only 10% of Canadas populaon. If Alberta were a

country, it would rank second in the world aer Qatar for

global per capita emissions (Lee et al., 2009).

Sources of GHG emissions from bituminous sands

industrial acvies include at least the following (Jacobs

Consultancy, 2009; Bergerson and Keith, 2006; Charpener

et al., 2009):

Loss of biological carbon (biocarbon), i.e. the carbon

stored in living plants, decaying and dead plants and

as soil organic carbon, from natural ecosystems due

to land use change caused by bitumen extracon; the

construcon of facilies, roads, wellpads, and pipelines;

and other disrupons of stored above and below

ground biocarbon found in vegetaon, soils and peat;

Loss of biocarbon from natural ecosystems due to land

use changes caused by exploraon and development for

the natural gas used in the bitumen processing (roads,

wellpads, pipelines and other disrupons of stored

The Suncor oil sands upgrading plant north of Fort McMurray.Dan Woynillowicz, Pembina Instute

Canadas 2007 GHG emissionsTotal GHG emissions in Canada in 2007 were

747 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt of

CO2eq), an increase of 4.0% from 2006 levels, and of 0.8%

from 2004 levels. Overall, the long-term trend indicates

that emissions in 2007 were about 26% above the 1990

total of 592 Mt. This trend shows a level 33.8% above

Canadas Kyoto target of 558.4 Mt. (Government of

Canada, 2008)


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Figure 1. Locaon of Albertas bituminous sands.


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Figure 2. Photographs of boreal

ecosystems. Top: Upland forest

(with logging clearcuts). Middle:

The Athabasca River delta is one

of the largest fresh water deltas

in the world and is downstream

from Albertas oil sands operaons.

Boom: The Athabasca River near

Fort McMurray.

DavidDodge,PembinaInstute


AranOCarroll


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Figure 3. Photographs of bitumen

mining acvity. Top: Suncor upgrader.

Middle: In situ bituminous sands

developments are major industrial

facilies, and may include an

upgrader to convert bitumen into

synthec crude oil. Boom: Syncrude

Mine.


DavidDodge,

PembinaInstute



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A focus on peatlands

Although there is a growing interest in the Albertan and

Canadian governments to build industrial carbon capture

and storage facilies for bituminous sands industrial

acvies,1 natural boreal forest ecosystems have been

doing the job in a tried and tested way for millennia..

Terrestrial ecosystems store almost three mes as much

carbon as in the atmosphere. Tropical and boreal forestecosystems represent the largest stores. The maintenance

of exisng carbon reservoirs is among the highest priories

in striving for climate change migaon. (Trumper et al.,

2009)

Approximately 24 % of the boreal forest world-wide

is occupied by peatlands (Wieder et al., 2006); 40%

of western boreal forest of Canada (Vi et al., 2008).

Boreal peatlands in parcular have a large amount of

sequestered atmospheric carbon, esmated to be about

455 Pg (455,000 megatonnes) or one third of the worlds

soil carbon (Vi and Wieder, 2006). Tarnacoi et al. (2009)recently esmated that the area of all soils in the northern

permafrost region is 16% of the global soil area and that

the organic carbon from the peat in these permafrost

areas would account for 50% of the esmated global

belowground organic carbon pool.

Carbon cycling in peat is unusual because of the

importance of methane producon and oxidaon

pathways, made possible by the proximity of aerobic and

anaerobic zones within the peat deposit (Vi and Wieder,

2006).

1 The Alberta Government has announced the Carbon Capture and

Development Council to bring together leading experts in the eld to

develop meaningful soluons. Alberta is also invesng $2B in carbon

and storage to reduce GHG emissions and has legislaon which puts a

price on carbon for large emiers (Specied Gas Emiers Regulaon).

The 14,042,214 ha region of the bituminous sands

industrial acvies in northern Alberta contains large

areas covered by peatlands. The bituminous sands

industrial acvies are depleng these peatlands resulng

in releases of stored carbon by aerobic and anaerobic

respiraon and the loss of annual sequestraon potenal.

Only 5% of the peatlands in the bituminous sands region

need to be drained/removed to exceed the annual

peatland carbon sink of the region (see box below).

Carbon in Peatlands

The C accumulated in peatlands is equivalent to almost

half the total atmospheric content, and a hypothecal

sudden release would result in an instantaneous 50%

increase in atmospheric CO2. While this scenario is

unrealisc, it nevertheless highlights the central role

of peatlands where huge amounts of CO2

have almost

enrely been consumed since the last glacial maximum,

but could respond dierently as a result of future changes

in climac condions. Peatlands have, hence, over the last

10,000 years helped to remove signicant amounts of CO2

from the atmosphere. (Drsler et al., 2008)

McLelland Lake, paerned fen, and roads and clearcuts.GoogleEarth

Image

5% Destrucon of Peatlands Results in Loss

of Peatlands as a Carbon Sink

Only 5% of peatlands in Canada (or a specic region)

need to be drained/harvested to exceed the annual

peatland carbon sink of the country (or a specic region).

For example, assuming 5% of peatlands in Canada were

drained and harvested, the total natural peatland areawould be 13.2 X 107 ha, represenng a carbon storage rate

of 3000 X 107 kg C. Carbon loss from the drained peatland

area (765 X 107 ha) using the oxidaon rate of peat (4000

kg C ha / year) would equal 3100 X 107 kg C. Consequently,

the net sink funcon in Canada would be lost and

converted to a net source of CO2

to the atmosphere if

drained/cutover peatlands exceeded 5% of the total

peatland area. .. [A]ssuming that these CO2

evoluon

rates are representave globally, the global carbon sink is

nearing the threshold of being changed from a net carbon

sink to a net carbon source. Some regions of Canada (e.g.,

eastern Qubec and New Brunswick) where drainageof peatlands for horculture is prevalent may already

exceed this threshold. Moreover, drainage of peatlands in

some countries in Europe already exceeds 5% of the total

peatland area [Gorham, 1991]. For example, esmates

by Gorham [1991] suggest that the Fennoscandia region

exceeds this 5% drained:natural peatland threshold, with

31.4% of peatlands drained and that other regions are

approaching this threshold, such as Russia at 2.6%, United

States at 1.1%, and global average at 3.3%. (Waddington

et al., 2002)


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Background

Capacity and producon growth of Canadas

bituminous sands

In 2008, the Internaonal Energy Agency esmated that

Albertas bituminous sandscontain 1.7 trillion barrels of

bitumen. Proven reservesthose that can be extracted

given prevailing and expected economic and operang

condionswere esmated to exceed 170 billion barrels

as of January 2008, ranking Canada second only to

Saudi Arabia (Internaonal Energy Agency, 2008; Brish

Petroleum, 2008). This represents approximately 14%

of global oil reserves (Bergerson and Keith, 2006). This

volume is much larger than that contained, for example,

in the Arcc Naonal Wildlife Refuge, which is esmated

to have less than 10 billion barrels (Energy Informaon

Administraon, 2008).2

Bitumen producon tripled between 1990 and 2006(Internaonal Energy Agency, 2008) and may well

more than triple again in the next few decades (Energy

Informaon Administraon, 2008). In 2006, producon

was equal to 1.4 percent of global oil producon and to

roughly 6% of total U.S. oil consumpon, 9% of U.S. oil

imports (including rened products), 13% of US crude

oil imports (Alberta Government, 2009) and 24% of US

domesc oil producon. Since 2004, Canada has been the

biggest source of US oil imports (Levi, 2009).

There are a range of esmates of future growth, including:

If producon were to reach 5 million barrels per day

(mbpd) in 2025, as predicted by the Energy Informaon

Administraon, producon from oil sands would meet

15% of North American and 4.2% of predicted global oil

demand (Energy Informaon Administraon, 2005);

The Canadian Associaon of Petroleum Producers

esmates that Albertas 2006 bitumen producon

makes up roughly half of western Canadas total crude

oil producon (Canadian Associaon of Petroleum

Producers, 2007), and is expected to grow from roughly

1.1 mbpd in 2006 to approximately 4.4 mbpd in 2015

and to about 5.3 mbpd in 2020 (under their Pipeline

Planning Case);

2 The EIA esmates that about 10 billion barrels are technically

recoverable; fewer will likely be economically recoverable (Energy

Informaon Administraon, 2008).

3 At 170 billion barrels of proven reservesthose that can be

extracted given prevailing and expected economic and operang

condions and at a producon rate of 1.1 mbpd, there would be 423

years of supply; at a producon rate of 3.4 mbpd, there would be 140

years of supply; and at a producon rate of 4.4 mbpd, there would be

106 years of supply.

The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

reports that by 2015, producon is expected to grow

to between 2 to 4.5 mbpd based on several forecasts

(Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2007);

A researcher with the Alberta Energy Resources

Conservaon Board esmates that growth in bitumen

producon is expected to average 9% annually from

2007 to 2017, and is in line with the average annual

growth of bitumen producon in Alberta that has

occurred over the last 10 years (Elliot, 2008);

The Alberta Government (2009) has stated: Our

knowledge of the oil sands resource shows that it

is possible to produce 6.0 or more mbpd from this

deposit. They believe that a mid-range level of demand

would result in producon of 4.0 to 4.5 mbpd and that

this is achievable at a growth rate of 20% per year (6.0

or more mbpd under a high-end scenario);

In one scenario, 8 mbpd was considered as an upper

limit for 2050 (CEMA-SEWG, 2008).

4 At 170 billion barrels of proven reservesthose that can be

extracted given prevailing and expected economic and operang

condions and at producon rate of 8 mbpd, there would be 58 years

of supply.

Expanded bitumen producon

depends on:

Market price for synthec crude oil (SCO) and diluted

bitumen;

Connued availability of natural gas or alternate

forms of cost-eecve input energy to process the

bitumen (e.g., coal, nuclear, toe-to-heel air injecon,

gasicaon, asphaltenes, electromagnec heang),

solvents (e.g., ethane, propane, or butane) or biological

acvity (e.g., microbes);

Global energy demand;

Costs and physical constraints (e.g., labour cost and

availability);

Developments of new technologies and innovaons;

and

Severity of policy constraints on polluon, including

GHG emissions.


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GHG emissions from bitumen producon

There are various esmates of a limited poron of the GHG

emissions from bitumen producon (Table 1).

The Instute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and

Economy (Bergeron and Keith, 2006) esmated that if

emissions in Alberta and Canada remain at 2000 emissions

levels and the producon of bitumen from the oil sands

is increased to 5 mbpd without any further reducon

in emission intensity, the bituminous sands industrial

acvies would account for approximately 15% of Canadas

and 55% of Albertas GHG emissions (Bergerson and Keith,

2006).

Environment Canadas Naonal Polluon Release Inventory

(2009) reports emissions from 15 point sources in the bitu-minous sands area (see Table 2). These emissions totalled

35.9 megatones in 2007, 26.0% higher than in 2004.

A 2009 review (Charpener et al., 2009) of GHG emissions

associated with only the immediate producon of fuels

from bituminous sands idened substanally higher GHG

emissions associated with current producon of synthec

crude oil (SCO) and non-upgraded bitumen, compared to

fuels produced from convenonal crude oil (see Table 3)

(Bergerson and Keith, 2006).

Some of the non-refereed studies and reports tend to

minimize the GHG emissions intensity from bituminous

sands industrial acvies by not including emissions from

land use conversions, extracon of natural gas used for

processing bitumen and a large number of other GHG

eming acvies. Their esmates do however, include

downstream emissions, such as combuson of the

nal fuel product by consumers, and not just emissions

associated with producon (Levi, 2009). This inclusion

reduces the focus on the increased emissions from the

producon of bitumen and other upstream GHG emissions

associated with bituminous sands industrial acvies. The

majority of lifecycle emissions 60 to 85% -- come from

combuson of the nal product (liquid transportaon

fuels) (Bergerson and Keith, 2006).

Other reports provide esmates compared to oil produced

from regions in the world with few if any environmental

standards and poor operang pracces, such as Nigeria

(Tiax LLC and MathPro Inc., 2009).

These reports do not analyze GHG emissions from several

sources from the bituminous sands industrial acvies,

including biocarbon emissions from land use change,

biocarbon emissions from exploraon and development of

natural gas used in the bitumen processing, transportaon

of workers, facilies construcon, and manufacturing and

disposal of heavy equipment. However, some of these

reports do acknowledge their omission of emissions that

may arise from land use, resource exploraon, the building

of infrastructure and facilies, manufacturing and disposal

of heavy equipment. (Jacobs Consultancy, 2009)

The Council on Foreign Relaons Center for Geoeconomic

Studies reports that the GHG emissions from a barrel of

the bituminous sands synthec crude exceed the average

emissions generated for a barrel of (convenonal) oil

consumed in the United States by about only 17 percent

(Levi, 2009). But they acknowledge that this is due mainly

to emissions from producon and upgrading, which

are nearly three mes higher for the average barrel of

bituminous sands crude than for the average barrel of oil

consumed in the United States.

Extracon of bitumen by surface

mining and in situ acvies

Bitumen is extracted either by surface mining or in

situ operaons. Surface mining techniques remove the

vegetaon, soil and surcial deposits layer and then

remove the bituminous sand deposits by truck and shovel

and extract the bitumen by mixing the bituminous sand

with water warmed using natural gas (Alberta Chamber of

Resources, 2004).

In situ technology is used for deeper deposits where

natural gas is primarily used to produce steam that is

injected to reduce the viscosity of the bitumen which is

then pumped to the surface using producon wells.

The Alberta Energy Resources Conservaon Board

reported that 40% of the bitumen produced in 2007 was

produced from in situ operaons while the other 60%was produced from surface mining (Energy Resources

Conservaon Board, 2008). It is currently esmated that

82% of the recoverable bitumen deposits will be extracted

using in situ technologies (Energy Resources Conservaon

Board, 2008). This extracon will occur over many

decades; perhaps over a century.


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Table 1. Esmates of GHG emissions from the bituminous sands area.

Esmated megatonnes of CO2eq (eq = equivalent)

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2015 2020

Bergerson and Keith, 2006 2

Bramley et al., 2005 25.2 27.8-28.1 26.6-27.3 32.2-33.5 39.3-41.4 61.9-67.9 108.0-126.5 113.1-141.6

Environment Canada, 2009 25.8 28 32.9 35.9

Table 2. Reported GHG emissions from bituminous sands industries for the Oil Sands Administraon Area 2004-2007

(large GHG emiers; Environment Canada, 2008).

Year

Company Facility Name 2004 2005 2006 2007

ATCO Power Canada Ltd.Muskeg River Cogeneraon Power

Plant1,152,866 1,285,325 1,198,461 1,155,885

Canadian Natural Resources LimitedWolf Lake/Primrose Thermal

Operaon1,896,050 1,880,603 2,474,618 2,68,9

FCCL Oil Sands PartnershipFoster Creek SAGD Bitumen

Baery315,940 262,357 417,695 634,016

FCCL Oil Sands PartnershipChrisna Lake SAGD Bitumen

Baery107,523 110,533 113,496 111,556

FCCL Oil Sands Partnership Foster Creek Cogeneraon Facility 465,759 486,764 509,660 634,016

Husky Oil Operaons Ltd Tucker Thermal 0 0 0 250,069

Imperial Oil Resources Cold Lake 4,174,980 4,128,065 4,619,666 4,537,337

Japan Canada Oil Sands LimitedHangingstone SAGD

Demonstraon Facility165,208 20,082 239,461 216,555

Nexen Inc./Op Canada Inc. Long Lake Project 0 0 0 132,824

Petro-CanadaMacKay River, In-Situ Oil Sands

Plant231,057 172,717 164,313 160,202

Shell Canada Limited Peace River Complex 367,271 414,068 372,058 367,924

Shell Canada Limited Muskeg River Mine 255,347 26,928 273,511 480,218

Suncor Energy Inc. Oil Sands Suncor Energy Inc. Oil Sands 8,599,254 7,694,458 9,132,040 9,261,437

Syncrude Canada Ltd.Mildred Lake and Aurora North

Plant Sites

10,367,463 10,357,330 12,620,212 14,936,539

TransCanada Energy Ltd. Mackay River Power Plant, Alberta 419,387 713,465 729,854 571,520

Total (tonnes CO2eq) 28,518,105 27,982,695 32,865,045 35,918,445

Total (megatonnes CO2eq) 28.5 28.0 32.9 35.9

Table 3. Average results of 13 models, and the result of the GHGenius model specically, of GHG emissions from the

producon of fuels from bituminous sands compared to convenonal oil (Charpener et al., 2009).

13 Models GHGenius Model

Range of

CO2eq/bbl SCO (kg)

Average Increase

of CO2eq/bbl

SCO compared to

convenonal oil

CO2eq/bbl SCO (kg)

Increase of CO2eq/bbl

SCO (kg) compared to

convenonal oil

Surface Mining and Upgrading 62 to 164 2.4 125 2.2

In situ extracon and upgrading 99 to 176 3.2 176 3.0


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Canadian Boreal Iniave / Ducks Unlimited

Canada (CBI/DUC) and GHGenius analysis

Two informaon sources provide esmates of the

biocarbon footprint associated with land use changes from

bituminous sands operaons a 2008 unpublished white

paper from the Canadian Boreal Iniave (CBI) and Ducks

Unlimited Canada (DUC) that considered land use changes

from exisng surface mining and Natural ResourcesCanadas GHGenius 3.13 model (2008) that considered

some land use changes from exisng surface mining:

neither considered in situ operaons.

The CBI/DUC analysis assessed the spaal scale of the

surface mining disturbance by analyzing historical and

current satellite imagery as well as aerial photographs.

Approximately 45,300 ha was esmated to have been

disturbed by surface mining as of 2006, an esmated 75%

of which was largely composed of surface mines or seling

ponds, the remainder being other infrastructure such as

plant facilies, roads, and waste storage areas.

Three major categories of terrestrial ecosystems were

idened: carbon-rich peatlands, mineral wetlands, and

upland forests. Carbon content esmates were used

based on assessments in the literature and an internal

assessment by Ducks Unlimited.5 Table (Table

reproduced from the NRDC report) summarizes the results.

The cumulave producon of surface mining was

esmated based on government data so that an average

soil carbon emissions factor could be calculated per unitof producon. Approximately 71 hectares of natural

ecosystems were esmated to be removed per million m

of bitumen/SCO produced. The loss of biocarbon equated

to 0 to 4.0 g CO2eq/MJ of fuel produced, or approximately

0 to 11.0% of the total source-to-tank GHG emissions.6 The

higher end of the esmates represents all the biocarbon

removed from these areas and being emied to the

atmosphere. The lower end represents the possibility

that all the land is eventually reclaimed and restored to

condions equivalent to the original ecosystems. The

5 The citaons in the CBI/DUC report (Biological Carbon Emission

Intensity of Oil Sands Mining) are: (1) Gorham E. 1991. Northern

peatlands: role in the carbon cycle and probable response to climac

warming. Ecological Applicaons 1:182-195. (2) Research conducted

on Prairie wetlands by Ducks Unlimited Canada, and (3) Kurz WA and

MJ Apps. 1999. A 70-year retrospecve analysis of carbon uxes in the

Canadian forest sector. Ecological Applicaons 9(2):526-547.

6 Calculaon based on using upstream gasoline emission

producon gures, but substung the Land Use Changes amount

of g/GJ, from Table 6-12 in: Natural Resources Canada. 2008. 2008

GHGenius Update: Final Report. Oce of Energy Eciency. Available at:

hp://www.ghgenius.ca/reports/FinalReportGHGenius2008Update.pdf

(08/07/2009).

report notes, though, that the lower end scenario is

considered unlikely since wetlands in parcular are dicultto restore and reclaimed wetlands will not have deep

layers of peat. In addion, the restoraon of ecosystems

and the re-sequestering of biocarbon, should they actually

occur, could take many decades or even centuries.

Two uncertaines required further research: the

proporon of biocarbon removed that is eventually

emied to the atmosphere, and potenal future trends in

biocarbon emissions from mining plus in situ extracon.

Further evaluaon of the type of peatland disturbed

(e.g. bog versus fen); the variaons in carbon/methane

releases; the temporal paerns of the emissions; andthe eecveness of the reclamaon projects would also

improve assessments.

A second set of esmates is available using GHGenius

3.13, which uses both Suncor and Syncrudes annual

reports to make esmates of disturbed areas of surface

mining but makes no esmates of disturbed area for in situ

disturbances. The model calculates that the loss of both

soil and biocarbon together represent 0.09 g CO2eq/MJ of

fuel produced, or approximately 0.28% of the total source-

to-tank GHG emissions (Natural Resources Canada, 2008).

Dierences in methodology and assumpons explain the

majority of dierences between GHGenius and the CBI/

DUC evaluaon.

To beer understand the dierences between the two

analyses, the GHGenius assumpons were compared, by

Mui et al. (2008), to those of the CBI/DUC analysis (2008).

GHGenius considers a generic, default set of factors for the

oil producon category. An average soil carbon emission

Table 4. Esmates of disturbed area and soil organic

carbon (CBI/DUC study based on 2006 Landsat imagery)

surface mining.

Land % of disturbed area tonnes C/hectare

Peatlands 36% 1,347

Mineral wetlands 19% 200

Upland forests 44% 171

Weighted average 100% 601

Table 5. Esmates of disturbed area and soill carbon

(GHGenius) generic oil.

Land % of disturbed area tonne C/hectare

CRP, pasture, grass 65% 70

Forest 10% 70

Desert 20% 10

Generic agriculture 5% 70

Weighted average 100% 58


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factor is also derived by weighing dierent disturbed lands

with their respecve emission factors within the model.

The results are shown in Table 5 (Table 5 from the NRDC

report).

GHGenius esmates that approximately 59 hectares are

disturbed for each million cubic metres produced, which is

fairly close to the 71-hectare value derived by CBI/DUC.

Natural Resources Defense Council explains the dierences

between the two esmates by comparing Tables 4 and

5. Part of the dierences can be ascribed to the order

of magnitude dierence in the soil carbon emissions

factor. The default generic oil category used by GHGenius

is clearly not applicable for bituminous sands, but the

emission factors and disturbed area can be adjusted

by the user. The CBI/DUC esmates consider peat and

mineral wetlands, which have much larger soil carbon

factors than those assumed in GHGenius for the generic oil

category. The second dierence though relavely minor

by comparison is the esmated land area disturbed perunit of producon as noted above. The third dierence

appears to be in terms of the accounng methodology:

specically the amorzaon and discounng of future

CO2eq emissions. The methodogy used by GHGenius is

based on the methodology by Delucchi (1998) for energy-

crop systems. GHGenius assumes that the soil carbon

takes 5 years to decompose into atmospheric CO2eq,

such that approximately 1/5 of the loss is aributed to

each barrel produced. It is unclear why the Delucchi

approach for energy crops is appropriate for surface

mining of bituminous sands. The Delucchi methodology

amorzes emissions in cases where land is inially

changed but crops can be grown connuously over a

me period (e.g. a 30 year project life). Thus, to put the

land use change factor on a per gallon basis (e.g. g CO2eq

lost/gallon), the inial loss of soil carbon would need to

be distributed, or amorzed, over the enre producon

volume expected for the projects lifeme. In contrast to

biofuels, the land use change factor for bituminous sands

is already on an incremental barrel basis (or volume of fuel

produced). Once an area is mined, it is assumed that no

further producon from that area occurs, which means

amorzaon is unnecessary.

The CBI/DUC report also idened several addional areas

for further research:

Accurate esmates of the biocarbon emissions

associated with bituminous sands mining;

The potenal future trends in biocarbon emissions from

bituminous sands mining;

An evaluaon of biocarbon emissions associated with in

situ bituminous sands development.

Failure of studies to perform full bituminous

sands industrial life cycle CO2eq emission

assessments

The full life cycle environmental impacts of bituminous

sands industrial acvies are complex and poorly

understood (Bergerson and Keith, 2006). There are

presently no full life cycle GHG analyses for bituminous

sands operaons.

Although some bituminous sands companies current

annual emissions reports include some upstream

emissions, such as emissions from mine faces (Suncor

Energy, 2009), the denion of upstream is unclear in

the literature. It appears that it is simply the emissions

from the energy used in the extracon and upgrading

processes and does not include most emissions from loss

of stored biocarbon or other emissions.

The bituminous sands Surface Mineable Area totals488,968 ha of northern Albertas boreal ecosystems.7 In

addion to surface mining, in situ bitumen producon

will occur over a projected area of 13,553,246 ha (Oil

Sands Administraon Area minus the Surface Mineable

Area), although the availability of the enre area for

bitumen industrial acvies may change.8 Few, if any, of

the biocarbon emissions resulng from land use change

caused by the bituminous sands industrial acvies in

these areas are reported.

The failure to perform full bituminous sands life cycle

CO2eq emissions assessments may be related to:

Inadequate direcon from the IPCC GHG guidance

documents for changes to / conversions of peatlands

from bitumen industrial acvies;

7 The total mineable area is 488,968 ha; of that, 200,000 ha

is expected, according to the Alberta Government, to be mined.

[Government of Alberta. 2009. Facts about Albertas oil sands: the

resource. Available at: hp://www.oilsands.alberta.ca/documents/The_

resource.pdf (07/07/2009).] However, no explanaon is provided for the

discrepancy between the formally designated Surface Mineable Area

and areas expected to be mined.8 2.9% of this area is considered protected area and will likely not

be available for bitumen industrial acvies (Lee PG, M Hanneman, JD

Gysbers, and R Cheng. 2009. The last great intact forests of Canada:

Atlas of Alberta. (Part II: What are the threats to Albertas forest

landscapes?) Edmonton, Alberta: Global Forest Watch Canada. 145

pp.). In addion: the Alberta Government-supported Cumulave

Eects Management Associaon has the mandate to develop guidelines

and mechanisms to reduce cumulave eects in the regions; the

Alberta Land Stewardship Act provides legal foong for the Land Use

Framework; the Alberta Government-appointed Lower Athabasca

Regional Advisory Council (LARAC) is undertaking a regional plan,

and; the Alberta Government has requested the LARAC to consider

increasing conservaon protecon to 20% or more.


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Inadequate direcon from the Global Reporng

Iniave G3 guidelines or other federal and provincial

government-mandated reporng requirements;

Uncertain me periods for decomposion of biocarbon

changed/converted due to bituminous sands industrial

acvies;

The diuse nature of the distribuon ofin situ land use

change over a large geographic area;

Uncertain GHG outcomes of reclamaon; and/or

The boundaries for GHG analyses are oen drawn

ghtly, excluding potenally important acvies with

signicant life cycle impacts (Bergerson and Keith,

2006).

Cornus canadensis, a common under-story plant in the boreal.


15/42


Methods

We esmated land area and natural ecosystem changes caused by bitumen surface mining and in situ acvies for exisn

operaons and for future operaons (see Figure 4 for locaons of these acvies). From these esmates, we calculated

the volume of natural biocarbon in these changed areas and the potenal resulng CO2eq emissions (Table 6).

Table 6. Methods used to calculate land area and natural ecosystems changes, above and below ground biocarbon

stores, and lost carbon sequestraon potenals in changed areas within peatlands, resulng from exisng and future

surface mining and in situ operaons areas.

Major topic areas that were analyzed Sub-topic areas that were analyzed Notes (see below)

Land area changed as a result of

surface mining

Surface Mining to June 1 2009 1

Future Surface

mining

Approved and Proposed Projects 2

Potenal Surface Mining Area

Natural ecosystem types

changed by surface mining

Surface Mining to June 1 2009

Future Surface

mining

Approved and Proposed Projects 2 + 5

Potenal Surface Mining Area 3 + 5

Land area changed as a result of

in situ acvies

In situ leases to Dec 30 2008 6

Future in situ acvies 7

Biocarbon (above and below

ground) in areas changed bysurface mining acvies

Surface Mining to June 1 2009 8

Future Surfacemining

Approved and Proposed Projects 9Potenal Surface Mining Area 10

Biocarbon (above and below

ground) in areas changed by in

situ acvies

In situ leases to Dec 30 2008 6 + 11

Future in situ acvies 7 + 12

Potenal loss of carbon sequestraon from natural peatlands within surface mining areas disturbed

as of June 1 2009, future surface mining, in situ exisitng projects and undeveloped leases, and the Oil

Sands Administraon Area

13

Notes:

1. We mapped, using a recent (June 1, 2009) Landsat 5 satellite image (Path 43/Row 20), the extent of surface mining

facilies (open pit mines, tailings ponds, mine waste, overburden piles and associated plants, and other major infrastructure

except for those roads and pipelines which are associated with the bitumen industrial operaons but are located outside

the immediate surface mining areas). The medium-coarse resoluon of Landsat imagery results in an underesmaon of land

use changes from exisng surface mining acvies.

2. We determined the geographic locaon and area of Approved projects (minus the area already changed as of June 1,

2009) and Proposed projects (as of December, 2008). We were able to include 5 Proposed (Jackpine Expansion, Joslyn North,

Northern Lights, Pierre River and Voyageur South) and 7 Approved (Aurora North, Fort Hills, Horizon, Jackpine Mine Phase 1,

Kearl Lake, Muskeg River Expansion and Steepbank Extension) surface mining projects. We were unable to map major roads

and pipelines which are associated with these operaons. Therefore the results are an underesmate of land use changes

from highly-likely near-future surface mining acvies.

3. All of the 488,968 ha area dened by the Government of Alberta as Surface Mineable Area was included as area for

potenal natural ecosystems changes, except for the Athabasca River and large lakes.

4. We used recent and historic land cover data produced by Ducks Unlimited (unpublished data; based on 1974 and 2002

Landsat satellite imagery and, for areas already disturbed by surface mining prior to 1974, based on the 1949-51 1:60,000

air photo mosaic available from the Government of Canada) (Ducks Unlimited Canada, 2009).5. We used the recent land cover data produced by Ducks Unlimited (unpublished data based on 1974 and 2002 Landsat

satellite imagery) (Ducks Unlimited Canada, 2009) (Figure 5).

6. We used calculaons (from Schneider and Dyer, 2006 ) of the extent ofin situ acvies (including central facility,

exploraon wells, producon wells, access roads, and aboveground pipeline collecon system) for the OPTI-Nexen Long Lake

project (8.3% of the project area cleared for SAGD infrastructure), to extrapolate the extent of ecosystem changes to the

other 85 in situ projects plus the other exisng leases as of December 2008.

7. We used calculaons (from Schneider and Dyer, 2006 ) of the extent ofin situ acvies, as described in #6 above to

extrapolate the extent of these disturbances to the enre Oil Sands Administraon as dened by the Government of Alberta,

minus the Surface Mineable Area.

... Contd next page


16/42


(Table 6 contd.)

Notes:

8. (1) For below ground carbon content we used the landscape footprint for each cover type converted to the amount of

carbon per square metre contained below ground as dened by the Soil Landscapes of Canada polygons (Tarnocai and

Lacelle, 1996) (see Figure 6); (2) For above ground carbon content: we used the amount of carbon contained above ground

as dened by Kurtz and Apps (1999) for forests of the Boreal West Ecoclimac Province (esmated to store 25.2 Mg carbon

per ha) for the treed landcover class (Ducks Unlimited Canada, 2009).

9. We used the calculaons from the future extent (i.e., aer June 1, 2009) of approved and proposed projects and converted

the esmates of land cover type to the amount of carbon contained below ground (dened by the Soil Landscapes of Canada

polygons - Tarnocai and Lacelle, 1996) and above ground (dened by Kurtz and Apps, 1999, for forests of the Boreal WestEcoclimac Province) for the treed landcover class (Ducks Unlimited Canada, 2009).

10. All of the 488,968 ha area dened by the Government of Alberta as Surface Mineable Area was included as potenal

surface mining disturbance, except for the Athabasca River and all large lakes. We converted the esmates of land cover type

as described in #9 above.

11. We mulplied #6 by the amount of carbon contained below ground (dened by the Soil Landscapes of Canada polygons -

Tarnocai and Lacelle, 1996), and; by the amount of carbon contained above ground, dened by treed land cover classes using

the Advanced Very High Resoluon Radiometer (AVHRR) dataset from Natural Resources Canada and assigning the carbon

content derived by Kurtz and Apps (1999) for forests of the Boreal West Ecoclimac Province.

12. We mulplied #7 by the amount of carbon contained below and above ground as described in #11 above.

13. We used the landcover dataset from Ducks Unlimited Canada (2009) to calculate the extent of peatlands within the

surface mining areas disturbed as of June 1, 2009, and within future surface mining areas. We used the peatlands dataset

from Vi et al. (1998) (all bog and fen wetland classes) for in situ exisng projects and undeveloped leases and for the enre

Oil Sands Administraon Area. We then used the net carbon sequestraon value provided by Vi et al. (2000) of 19.4 g C/m2/year.


17/42


Figure 4. Locaon of Albertas Oil Sands Administraon Area, Surface Mineable Area, all approved and proposed surface

mining projects (as of December 2008), and exisng bitumen surface leases (as of December 2008) for both surface

mining and in situ operaons.


18/42


Figure 5. Land cover mapping completed in the Oil Sands Administraon Area (Ducks Unlimited).


19/42


Figure 6. Soil organic carbon polygons for northeastern Alberta.


20/42


Results

Land use changes resulng from surface and

in situ mining and the carbon content of the

changed areas

Table 7 summarizes the results of the changed area

calculaons resulng from bitumen surface and in situmining and the calculated carbon content in these changed

areas.

According to our analysis:

Bitumen surface mining acvies between 1974 and

2009 have grown signicantly (Figure 7). As of June 1,

2009, 68,574 ha of natural boreal ecosystems have been

changed by bitumen surface mining acvies, and this

area contains 21.0 megatonnes of carbon (Figure 8);

An addional 94,850 ha are being or will soon be

changed by exisng approved and proposed surface

mining projects, and this area contains 29.6 megatonnescarbon (Figure 8);

Another potenal 325,544 ha are likely to be changed in

the Surface Mineable Area and this area contains 90.1

megatonnes of carbon;

This equals a total of 488,968 ha changed and potenally

changed by surface mining, and this area contains 140.7

megatonnes of carbon;

An addional 644,373 ha has been or potenally will

be changed within in situ leases issued as of December

2008, and this area contains 284.0 megatonnes of carbon

(Figure 9);

The total Oil Sands Administraon Area is 14,042,214

ha. Assuming in situ development requires 8.3% of the

land in this area (but outside of the Surface Mineable

Area), 1,124,919 ha will potenally be directly changed

by exisng and future in situ operaons, and this area

contains 438.2 megatonnes of carbon;

All together, this is a total of 1,613,887 ha of natural

ecosystems (20 mes the size of the City of Calgary, 40

mes the size of the City of Denver, 17 mes the size of

East/West Berlin) that are or will potenally be changed

by bitumen surface mining and in situ operaons; and

The areas changed by present and potenal surface

mining and in situ operaons contain 578.9 megatonnes

of carbon.

Natural ecosystems changed by bitumen

surface mining

The generalized and detailed ecosystems, or land cover

classes, of the Surface Mineable Area are summarized in

Tables 8 and 9, respecvely. Of the area changed by surface

mining acvies as of June 1, 2009, wetlands comprised

35,914 ha, or 52.4%, of the original pre-disturbance area.

Upland forest comprised 31,739 ha, or 46.3%, of the original

pre-disturbance area (Tables 8 and 9; Figure 10).

Of the Surface Mineable Area, wetlands comprised 209,615

ha, or 42.8%, of the original pre-disturbance area. Upland

forest comprised 205,591 ha, 42.0%, of the pre-disturbance

area (Figure 11).

Peatlands: carbon sequestraon loss from

disturbance of natural peatlands

Peatlands in the Surface Mineable Area that will have been

or may be changed/converted comprised:

23,704 ha as of June 1, 2009 (this is 5.4% of all the

peatlands that would be changed/converted undera full development scenario within the Oil Sands

Administraon Area);

36,064 ha of the Approved and Proposed projects

areas (minus the areas already changed) (this is 8.2%

of all the peatlands that would be changed/converted

under a full development scenario within the Oil Sands

Administraon Area);

135,990 ha of the total Surface Mineable Area (this

is 31.0% of all the peatlands that would be changed/

converted under a full development scenario within the

Oil Sands Administraon Area).

(See Table 10 and Figure 12.)

Peatlands in the in situ area that have been or may be

changed/converted comprise:

202,411 ha of exisng in situ projects and undeveloped

leases (this is 46.1% of all the peatlands that would be

changed/converted under a full development scenario

within the Oil Sands Administraon Area);

302,669 ha of the Oil Sands Administraon Area minus

those peatlands within the Surface Mineable Area (this

is 69.0% of all the peatlands that would be changed/converted under a full development scenario within the

Oil Sands Administraon Area).

(See Table 10.)

The annual CO2

sequestraon potenal lost from this

area under full potenal bitumen surface mining would

be 96.6 kilotonnes CO2/year (Table 10). The annual CO

2

sequestraon potenal lost from in situ areas under full

potenal development would be 215.2 kilotonnes CO2/year

(Table 10).


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Table 7. Area changed (and potenally changed) by bitumen surface mining and in situ operaons and carbon content in

changed areas. (Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding).

Potenal Area

Converted (and to

be converted (ha)

Below-ground Soil

Organic Carbon

(megatonnes) (7)

Above-ground

Organic Carbon

(megatonnes)

Total Above and Below

Ground Organic Carbon

(megatonnes)

Surface Mining

As of June 2009 (1) 68,574 19.3 1.6 21.0

Approved new projects (2) 49,711 17.0 1.2 18.2

Proposed new projects (3) 45,139 10.4 1.0 11.4

SUBTOTAL 163,424 46.8 3.8 50.6

Surface Mineable Area (4) 88,968 130.9 9.8 140.7

Surface Mineable Area minus

approved (disturbed as of June

1, 2009 + new approved) and

proposed projects

325,544 84.1 6.0 90.1

In situ Mining

Exisng Projects and

Undeveloped Leases (X8.3%

converted) (5)

644,373 268.7 15.2 284.0

Oil Sands Administraon Areaminus Surface Mineable Area

(X8.3% converted) (6)

1,124,919 412.7 25.5 438.2

Notes:

1. Mapped from June 1, 2009 Landsat 5 image (open pit mines, tailings ponds, mine waste, overburden piles and associated plants, and other

major infrastructure except for most roads and pipelines).

2. Approved projects include: Aurora North, Horizon, Jackpine Mine Phase 1, Muskeg River Expansion, Steepbank Extension, Kearl Lake and Fort

Hills. Areas to be changed were digized from ERCB applicaon decisions. Projects idened from Government of Alberta. 2009 Albertas Oil

Sands Projects: December 2008 and Alberta Oil Sands Industry Quarterly Update Summer 2009. Areas to be changed digized from Alberta ERCB

Decisions: 2006-112 (Steepbank Extension); 2004-005 (Horizon); 2007-013 (Kearl); 2004-009 (Jackpine); 2006-128 (Muskeg River); 97-13 (Aurora

North); 2002-089 (Fort Hills). ERCB decisions are available at: www.ercb.ca

3. Proposed projects include: Northern Lights, Pierre River, Jackpine Expansion, Voyageur South and Joslyn North. Projects idened from

Government of Alberta. 2009 Albertas Oil Sands Projects: December 2008 and Alberta Oil Sands Industry Quarterly Update Summer 2009. Areas

to be changed were digized from public documents available from interested companies: Synenco Energy Inc. 2006. Applicaon for Approvalof the Northern Lights Mining and Extracon Project. Volume 2 - Project Descripon. p.1-5; Shell Canada Limited. 2007. Applicaon for Approval

of the Jackpine Mine Expansion & Pierre River Mine Project. Volume 1, p.1-3 and Volume 2, p.1-3; Suncor Energy. 2007. Voyageur South Public

Disclosure Document. p.2-4. Available at: www.suncor.com; Deer Creek Energy Limited. 2006. The Joslyn North Mine Project. Secon B - Project

Descripon. Figure B.1.1-1.

4. Government of Alberta (The expanded surface mineable boundary, as of June 2009 is based on the AltaLIS township grid.)

5. Projects idened from Government of Alberta. 2009 Alberta's Oil Sands Projects: December 2008. Areas to be converted from McElhaney

Surveys Ltd. 2009. Oil Sands Leases Athabasca Region (copyright). 8.3% of the project lease areas was assumed to be converted.

6. Government of Alberta.

7. Below-ground carbon includes dead organic maer.

Table 8. Bitumen surface mining areas: original (before bituminous sands industrial acvies) land

cover - generalized classes.

Land Cover TypeAs of June 2009

(ha)Approved projects (ha)

Proposed new projects

(ha)

Surface Mineable

Area (ha)

Peatlands (ha) 23,704 18,659 17,405 135,990

Mineral wetlands (ha) 12,210 8,418 7,634 73,625

Upland forest (ha) 31,739 22,231 17,617 205,591

Water (ha) 453 109 172 9,211

Other (human

disturbances) (ha)68 295 61 1,815

Unclassied (ha) 0 0 2,250 62,741

Total Area (ha) 68,574 49,711 45,139 488,973


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Table 9. Bitumen surface mining areas: original (before bituminous sands industrial acvies) land cover

- detailed classes.

Land Cover Type

Area Converted

as of June 1,

2009 (ha)

Approved Surface

Mining (as of

December 2008) (ha)

Proposed Surface

Mining (as of

December 2008) (ha)

Surface Mineable

Area (ha)

Open Water 350 57 133 7,646

Aquac Bed 98 52 0 1,554

Mudats 0 1 0 746

Emergent Marsh 141 104 47 987

Meadow Marsh 47 0 0 26

Graminoid Fen 103 292 132 1,305

Graminoid Poor Fen 151 2 299 1,773

Shrubby Rich Fen 1,032 1,097 1,365 8,057

Shrubby Poor Fen 7 2 9 9

Rich Treed Fen 6,987 6,054 5,987 0,06

Poor Treed Fen 13,972 9,62 8,170 72,280

Shrubby Bog 72 8 163 1,126

Treed Bog 1,381 1,174 1,279 11,291

Thicket Swamp 877 1,020 1,084 11,047

Hardwood (Birch) Swamp 761 445 516 6,8

Mixedwood Swamp 62 616 20 4,937Tamarack Swamp 107 593 530 4,345

Conifer Swamp 9,645 5,638 5,138 ,9

Upland Conifer 6,503 6,99 5,436 8,6

Upland Deciduous 20,867 12,300 10,337 126,444

Upland Mixedwood Forest ,2 2,972 1,820 29,047

Upland Pine 0 0 0 1

Upland Other 45 0 2 1,754

Urban 68 20 61 1,815

Water 1974 5 295 0 11

Total Area (ha) (1) 68,574 49,711 2,889 26,22

Carbon Content

(megatonnes) 21.0 18.2 11.4 140.7

Notes:

1. Totals exclude Unclassied, Cloud and Cloud Shadow, and Burn Areas (unclassied) areas.

Table 10. Potenal loss of annual sequestraon potenal from land use change of peatlands resulng from bitumen

surface mining and from in situ operaons.

Peatland Area

Potenally Changed (ha)

Lost CO2

Sequestraon

Potenal (kilotonnes/yr)

Bitumen surface mining

As of June 2009 23,704 16.9

Approved new projects 18,659 13.3

Proposed new projects 17,405 12.4

Bitumen surface mining projects subtotal 59,767 42.5

Surface Mineable Area

Total Surface Mineable Area 135,990 96.7

Surface Mineable Area minus approved (disturbed as of June 1, 2009 + new

approved) and proposed projects76,222 54.2

In situ acvies

Exisng Projects and Undeveloped Leases (x 8.3% changed) 202,411 143.9

Oil Sands Administraon Area minus Surface Mineable Area (x 8.3% changed) 02,669 215.2


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Figure 7. Growth of bitumen surface mining between 1974 and June 1, 2009.


24/42


Figure 8. Surface mining footprint from exisng disturbances as of June 1, 2009, and from Approved and Proposed

projects. Note: Not all of this area will be disturbed at the same me, as there will be ongoing reclamaon.


25/42


Figure 9. In situ footprint assuming development of all leases approved as of December 2008 within the Oil Sands

Administraon Area. Note: Not all of this area will be disturbed at the same me, as there will be ongoing reclamaon.


26/42


Figure10.

NaturallandcoverofSuncorandSyncrudesurfaceminin

garea.


27/42


Figure 11. Land cover of Surface Mineable Area.


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Figure 12. Peatlands within the Surface Mineable Area.


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Carbon emissions into the atmosphere due

to loss of biocarbon from bitumen industrial

operaons

Although not all of the stored biocarbon in natural

ecosystems that are changed due to bitumen surface

mining and in situ operaons will be emied to the

atmosphere, if all of this carbon were released as carbon

dioxide into the atmosphere over the next decades, thetotal emissions would be 2,121.3 megatonnes CO

2(579

megatonnes of carbon x 3.66 CO2).

If these biocarbon emissions occurred over the next

100 years, which may be a reasonable meframe given

projected bitumen industry expansion scenarios, this

would amount to an average of presently unaccounted-

for emissions of 21.2 megatonnes CO2

per year from

bituminous sands industrial acvies.

Given the unlikelihood of 100% of the disturbed naturalcarbon stores being volazed and emied into the

atmosphere, especially because of reclamaon that ulizes

stockpiled carbon, it is also useful to examine a more likely

scenario of emissions. Table 11 (page 31) includes emission

values based on: a likely limit of total carbon volazaon

based references commonly cited in the literature; ranges

of yearly emission ux scenarios based on minimum and

maximum emissions cited in the literature; and the value

calculated using IPCC Tier 1 assumpons (IPCC, 2006).

Discussion

Comparison of results with CBI/DUC and

GHGenius analyses

The proporon of peatlands, mineral wetlands and upland

forests in our analysis are very similar to the CBI/DUC

analysis (35 versus 36%; 18 versus 19% and 46 versus 44%,

respecvely). This is to be expected as we used the same

basic data source but updated the disturbed area from

2006 to June 2009. The GHGenius analyzes area disturbed

based on extrapolaons from Syncrude and Suncor reports

of land disturbance.

Both CBI/DUC and GHGenius provide intensity esmates

of area disturbed and potenal emissions per unit of

synthyec crude oil produced. GHGenius esmates that

approximately 59 hectares are disturbed for each million

cubic metres of synthec crude oil produced, compared to

the CBI/DUC esmate of 71.

Using a similar analysis of total area disturbed as of June

1, 2009 and total synthec crude oil producon 1967-2008

(Canadian Associaon of Petroleum Producers, 2009),

our esmate is 123.6 hectares disturbed for each million

cubic metres of synthec crude oil (plus mined bitumen)

produced. However, it is important to note that since total

synthec crude oil producon occurs for a long period

aer the surface disturbances occur, the area disturbed

per unit of producon will decline over me.

The key dierences between our analyses and the CBI/DUC

(2008) and GHGenius (2008) analyses are:

We used updated land use change data (June 1, 2009

for the surface mining area and related facilies

changed to that date, and December, 2008 for the in

situ leases and exisng project areas);

We used dierent source data on carbon content for

the boreal ecosystems (Figure 6) (Tarnocai and Lacelle,

1996);

We included an analyses ofin situ operaons;

We included an analysis of exisng and potenal futurebituminous sands industrial operaons;

We categorized all of the Government of Albertas

legislated Oil Sands Administraon Area as potenally

leased by in situ operaons and 8.3% of the natural

ecosystems of all lease areas to be changed (Figure 1)

(Alberta Energy and Ulies Board, 1984).

We categorized all of the Government of Alberta

Surface Mineable Area as potenally surface mined for

bitumen.

PeatlandsThe natural peatlands of connental western Canada

have historically increased their total carbon storage

by 19.4 g/m2/year (Vi et al., 2000), indicang that

regionally this ecosystem has been a large carbon sink and

would be an important natural ecosystem for connuing

carbon sequestraon, if these peatlands remained intact.

Although reclamaon will sequester carbon from the

atmosphere, it is unlikely to replace most of the lost

biocarbon for thousands of years, especially in peatlands.

The peatlands poron of the area presently and potenallychanged/converted under a full development scenario

would have connued to sequester 311.8 kilotonnes of

carbon annually if le in a natural state. Under present

reclamaon plans and given the limited progress to date

since bitumen surface mining began in 1967, future

volumes of long-term carbon sequestraon and storage

will likely be insignicant in comparison to natural

peatland ecosystem sequestraon and storage as it

appears that peatlands as they exist in the predisturbance

landscape are not to be restored, and Albertas current


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laws, regulaons, and policies are, to date, unable to set

the necessary landscape-scale objecves (Johnson and

Miyanishi, 2008).

The Oil Sands Administraon Area contains 461,838 ha

of peatlands that will be changed/converted under full

development scenario; this represents 11.2% of the

peatland area within the Oil Sands Administraon Area

and 4.4% of the peatland area of Alberta (calculated

from Vi et al., 1998). Only 5% of peatlands in a specic

region need to be drained/harvested to exceed the annual

peatland carbon sink of that region (Waddington et al.,

2002). The implicaon is that the annual peatland carbon

sink of the 14 million ha Oil Sands Administraon Area

will potenally be vastly exceeded by the emissions from

destroyed peatlands, and that the annual peatland carbon

sink of Alberta will potenally be near the level of being

exceeded by the emissions from destroyed peatlands,

under full development scenario of the bituminous sands.

Under- and over-esmaon of biocarbon and

GHG emissions

Although our esmates of land use changes, biocarbon

and loss of biocarbon due to bitumen industrial operaons

do not fully consider the as-yet-unquaned future

successes of reclamaon eorts to sequester and store

atmospheric carbon, our calculaons sll likely resulted in

underesmaons for these reasons:

There are a number of land use changes resulng from

bituminous sands industrial acvies that were not

included in our analysis, such as seismic exploraon

lines, many exisng and planned roads and pipelines

in the Surface Mineable Area, and the area inuenced

by in situ technology. Including such areas would

increase emissions from biocarbon. For example, in

situ producon requires approximately four mes the

amount of natural gas that is used for surface mining

on a producon volume basis (Alberta Chamber of

Resources, 2004); therefore, the land area inuenced

by in situ technology is actually comparable to land

disturbed by surface mining (Jordaan et al., 2009);

In situ operaons will likely result in a greater area ofland use change than the esmate provided by data

providers for the OPTI-Nexen Long Lake project (8.3%)

which we broadly applied for in situ projects in our

analysis. The length of seismic lines for the OPTI-Nexen

project was unknown and not included in the esmate

(Schneider and Dyer, 2006);

The medium-coarse resoluon of Landsat imagery that

we used for mapping exisng disturbances results in

an underesmaon of land use change from exisng

surface mining acvies. Using ner resoluon remote

imagery would result in beer detecon of small

disturbance features and therefore increased emissions

Above-ground carbon was underesmated as we could

not determine the above-ground carbon content in

non-upland forest areas such as non-treed peatlands

and mineral wetlands, which comprise approximately

40% of the land cover. Above-ground carbon may also

be underesmated due to large areas (over 12% of theSurface Mineable Area) that were unclassied as to

land cover type by the data providers (Ducks Unlimited

Canada, 2009);

Below-ground carbon may be underesmated due to

assumpons by data providers regarding the depth

of peat (real-world depths oen exceed 4 m and it is

unclear whether the eld sampling locaons for the Soil

Organic Carbon dataset was suciently robust in the

bituminous sands region to capture deep peat sites);

Esmates for below-ground carbon may also be

underesmated due to unknown assumpons by dataproviders (Soil Organic Carbon dataset) regarding live

roots as part of the carbon pool. The biomass carbon

content for Boreal West forest ecosystems, esmated in

1989, was 32.4 Mg C/ha, of which 25.2 Mg C/ha was in

aboveground living biomass and 7.2 Mg C/ha in ne and

coarse root biomass. To be cauous, we did not include

this 7.2 Mg C/ha in any of our calculaons;

Above-ground carbon may be underesmated due to

large areas (over 12% of the Surface Mineable Area)

that were unclassied as to land cover type by the

data providers (Ducks Unlimited Canada, 2009);Some loss of carbon occurs due to the release of

methane, which is a more potent GHG than carbon

dioxide.

Our calculaons of land use conversions and amount

of biocarbon due to bitumen operaons likely contain

some overesmaons for this reason: not all land use

conversions will result in equivalent releases of CO2eq from

the carbon contained within these converted ecosystems.

For example, some ecosystem conversions, such as those

resulng from above-ground pipelines which may only

temporarily remove surface vegetaon, have a lighter

carbon conversion impact than central facilies and

wellsite pads which may remove the vegetaon and the

soil layer, or may temporarily bury the soil carbon unl

decommissioning.


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Table 11. Various emissions calculaons from the loss of biocarbon from bitumen industrial acvies (both surface

mining and in situ operaons.

Bitumen surface mining

and in situ operaons

Total carbon content

(megatonnes carbon)

Carbon release

esmates based

on commonly cited

references (megatonnes

carbon)

Range of annual carbon

releases (megatonnes

carbon/year)

Annual carbon

releases based on IPCC

carbon ux esmates

(megatonnes carbon/

year)

Surface Mineable Area

Below-ground carbon

Mineral Soil Carbon* 14.7 4.1a 0.01 f - 0.25 g 0.18 o

Peatland Carbon* 116.2 116.2b 0.96 h - 3.54 i 2.40 p

Total below-ground carbon 130.9 120.3

Above-ground Carbon 9.8 9.8 c 0.20 j 0.20 j

In-situ Extracon Area

Below-ground Carbon

Mineral Soil Carbon* 30.2 12.7d 0.07 k - 0.36 l 0.28 q

Peatland Carbon* 238.5 42.3e 0.81 m - 1.63 n 1.01 r


Above-ground Carbon 15.23 15.2 c 0.30 j 0.30 j

Oil Sands Admin Area

Below-ground carbonMineral Soil Carbon* 46.4 19.5 d 0.11 k - 0.56 l 0.43 q

Peatland Carbon* 366.3 63.3 e 1.21 m - 2.43 n 1.51 r


Above Ground Carbon 25.5 25.5 c 0.51 j 0.51 j

Notes:

*: Mineral soil and peatland carbon are disnguished using the following proporon of soil organic carbon: 89 % of soil organic carbon is found in

peatlands and 11% is found in mineral soil . (Ducks Unlimited Canada and Canadian Boreal Iniave (2008) unpublished white paper).

a: Visser et al. (1984) found that 28% of soil carbon was lost from stockpiles within 6 months.

b: Turetsky et al. (2002) assumed that 100% of peatland carbon is lost in 50 years.

c: IPCC (1996) guidance document gives 100% loss of vegetaon carbon.

d: Guo and Giord (2002) found a maximum decrease of 42% of soil carbon lost when converted from forest to cropland.

e: Cleary et al. (2005) found that peatlands under restoraon emied a total of 20.9 kg carbon /m2 resulng from land use change.

f: Visser et al. (1984) found a minimum 10.7% decrease in the amount of soil carbon stored in stockpiles over one year. This loss is divided by anesmated 50 years of mine life.

g: Abdul-Kareem and McRae (1984) found that a sandy soil stockpile loses 85% of its organic maer. This loss is divided by an esmated 50 years

of mine life.

h: Couwenberg (2009) assigns a 43 tonne CO2eq / ha /yr global warming potenal for boreal peat stockpiles. The area of stockpiles is based on a

proporon of 16.8% of the surface mining area based on approved and proposed project layouts.

i: Finland Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (2007) measured the emissions from a peat stockpile and found the average emission amounted

to 15,772 g CO2

eq /m2 /yr. The area of stockpiles is based on a proporon of 16.8% of the surface mining area based on approved and proposed

project layouts.

j: 100% of the total above ground carbon is divided over 50 years.

k: Based in the IPCC (2006) guidance document using the following default values for conversion from dry boreal forest to set-aside land: land use:

0.93; full llage: 1; inputs: 1.

l: Based in the IPCC (2006) guidance document using the following default values for conversion from dry boreal forest to long-term culvated

land: land use: 0.8; full llage: 1; inputs: 0.95.

m: Waddington et al. (2002) determined a conservave annual peat oxidaon rate of 4000 kg C/ ha /yr.n: Waddington and McNeil (2002) found that 7.7 g / CO

2/ m2 / day oxided from peat cutovers.

o: Based in the IPCC (2006) guidance document using the following default values for conversion from dry boreal forest to cropland: land use: 0.8;

full llage: 1.00; low residues returned: 0.95.

p: Based in the IPCC (2006) guidance document using the default decay constant for peatland stockpiles of 0.05 for 50 years, divided by 50 years.

q: Based in the IPCC (2006) guidance document using the following default values for conversion from dry boreal forest to cropland: land use: 0.8;

reduced llage: 1.02; residues returned: 1.

r: Based in the IPCC (2006) guidance document which assigns an emissions factor of 5 T C /ha/yr for culvated organic soils.


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Implicaons for life cycle emissions of GHGs

Including the volazaon of biocarbon into life cycle GHG

emissions due to bitumen industrial acvies may well

result in a signicant addion to what has been normally

reported by governments and industry. Our esmates

add an addional 239.3 megatonnes of carbon (873.4

megatonnes of CO2), or 41.1% of total carbon contained

in the area disturbed by bitumen industrial operaons,of presently unaccounted-for emissions under a full

development scenario. Over 100 years, this would average

out to 8.7 megatonnes CO2

per year, although in reality

there would be great variability year-to-year and decade-

to-decade. Canadas total emissions for 2007 were 747

megatonnes CO2eq from all sources and Canadas Kyoto

target is 558.4 megatonnes. Although reclamaon will

sequester carbon from the atmosphere, it is unlikely to

replace most of the lost biocarbon for thousands of years.

The bituminous sands industry reported emissions of

28.5 megatonnes of CO2eq in 2004, 35.8 megatonnes of

CO2eq in 2007 (Environment Canada, 2009), and have beenprojected to be 113.1-141.6 megatonnes CO

2eq in 2020

(Bramley et al., 2005).

As a result of our under-esmaon, and yet in

consideraon of our over-esmaon, of land use changes

and loss of biocarbon from bitumen industrial operaons,

likely the actual emissions would be higher than our

esmates. However, our esmates might be decreased if

signicant progress and improvements are made in the

pace and quality of reclamaon.

Conclusions

Proper accounng of GHG emissions from the bitumen

industrial acvies is important not only locally, but

within a naonal and even global context. Published

studies to date on the topic of full life cycle GHG emissions

from bituminous sands industrial acvies have failed

to address the issue of CO2eq emissions from land use

changes.

Our paper provides esmates of land use changes,biocarbon content and consequent potenal GHG

emissions due to exisng and future surface mining and

in situ extracon of bitumen in Alberta, Canada. Including

proper accounng of GHG emissions due to bitumen

industrial acvies may well result in a signicant addion

to what has normally been reported by governments and

industry to date.

The highlights of our research include the following:

1. Land use changes resulng from surface mining and

the carbon content in these changed areas The natural

ecosystems that have undergone or may undergo land

use change into open pit mines, tailings ponds, mine

waste, overburden piles and associated facility plants,

and other major infrastructure resulng from exisng

and potenal surface mining acvies total 488,968 ha

(including 209,614 ha of peatlands and mineral wetlands

and 205,590 ha of upland forest). The above and below

ground biological carbon content of this area is at least

140.7 megatonnes.

2. Land use changes resulng from in situ operaons and

the carbon content in these changed areas The natural

ecosystems that have undergone or may undergo land use

change into central facilies, exploraon wells, producon

wells, access roads, pipelines and other infrastructure from

exisng and potenal in situ operaons total 1,124,919 ha.

This area contains at least 438.2 megatonnes of above and

below ground biological carbon.

3. GHG emissions from loss of biological carbon due

to land use changes caused by bituminous sands

industrial acvies Although not all of the biological

carbon contained within ecosystems changed by bitumen

industrial acvies will be emied into the atmosphere,

if all of this carbon (578.9 megatonnes) were emied,

this would amount to 2,121.3 megatonnes of CO2. While

this scenario is unrealisc, it nevertheless highlights the

signicance of potenal greenhouse gas emissions from

the release of biological carbon stores from those natural

ecosystems that will be changed by a full development

scenario of the bituminous sands. A more likely esmate of

releases under a full development scenario would be 238.3

megatonnes of carbon, 873.4 megatonnes of CO2, or 41.1%

of the total carbon contained in the area disturbed by

bitumen industrial operaons. Over 100 years, this would

average out to 8.7 megatonnes CO2

per year, with great

variability year-to-year and decade-to-decade. Although

reclamaon will sequester carbon from the atmosphere,

it is unlikely to replace most of the lost biocarbon for

thousands of years. Canadas total emissions for 2007 were

747 megatonnes CO2eq from all sources and Canadas

Kyoto target is 558.4 megatonnes. The bituminous sandsindustry reported emissions of 28.5 megatonnes of CO

2eq

in 2004, 35.8 megatonnes of CO2eq in 2007, and have been

projected to be 113.1-141.6 megatonnes CO2eq in 2020.

We hope this paper will:

Movate the world scienc community to pay

increased aenon to Albertas bituminous sands

industrial acvies in terms of their ecosystem and

human impacts;


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Provide new GHG emissions data and esmates

(albeit coarse) regarding biocarbon releases to the

atmosphere;

Encourage others to conduct studies of the carbon

content of exisng and potenal land use change

of natural ecosystems caused by bituminous sands

industrial acvies and to more accurately determine

the volume and rate of emissions of this carbon and

other GHGs into the atmosphere;

Contribute to eort

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