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IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Bioenergy: global perspectives, challenges and opportunities
25 June 2019 – 7th GBEP Bioenergy Week, Manila
Simone Landolina, Strategic Initiatives Office, International Energy Agency
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The new geography of energy…
In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some
20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed
Energy demand
2000
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
Mtoe
2001
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
Mtoe
2002
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United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
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2003
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United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
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2004
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United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
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2005
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United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Middle East
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2006
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United States
China
European Union
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India
Middle East
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2007
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United States
China
European Union
Africa
India
Middle East
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2008
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United States
China
European Union
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India
Middle East
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2009
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China
United States
European Union
Africa
India
Middle East
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2010
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China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2011
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China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2012
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China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2013
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China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2014
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China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2015
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China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2016
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2017
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2018
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2019
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China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2020
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2021
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2022
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2023
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2024
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2025
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2026
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2027
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2028
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2029
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2030
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2031
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2032
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2033
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2034
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2035
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2036
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2037
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2038
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2039
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2040
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
Africa
European Union
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2040
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
Africa
European Union
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
…and of related emissions
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion under the New Policies Scenario: 2017 versus 2040
Emerging economies and developing countries will play a key role in energy transitions
1%
29%
7%2%1%
1%21%
34%
4%
1%
25%
13%
3%1%
1%27%
23%
6%Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Mexico
South Africa
Other developing economies
OECD (excl. Mexico)
Other
2040
2017
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Where do we need to go? And how do we get there?
Efficiency & renewables account for the bulk of CO2 abatement, however a host of other
technologies including nuclear, CCUS, hydrogen & storage are also required
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2020 2030 2040
Gt
CO
2-e
q
Efficiency
Renewables
Nuclear
CCUS
Fuel-Switching
Other
New Policies Scenario (NDCs)
Sustainable Development
Scenario
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Multiple benefits towards achieving SDGs
In an integrated approach, universal energy access can be reached while also
achieving climate goals and reducing air pollutant emissions, at little extra cost
Benefits of the Sustainable Development Scenario vs. New Policies Scenario, 2040
Carbon dioxide emissions(Gt CO2)
Population without access to
modern energy (billion people)
Premature deaths related
to air pollution (billion)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Electricity Clean cooking
1
2
3
4
5
Indoor Outdoor
10
20
30
40
CO2 emissions
SDG 13 SDG 7 SDG 3
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Renewable electricity: only PV and bioenergy are on track
In 2018, electricity generation from bioenergy increased by over 8%, exceeding the 6% annual
rate needed through 2030 to reach the SDS level. But we need solutions across all sectors…
Renewable electricity generation by technology
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TWh
Ocean
CSP
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Hydropower
Historical Forecast SDS
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Hydropower
Bioenergy
Geothermal
CSP
Ocean
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Biofuels and biomass for heating need to accelerate
Transport biofuel deployment needs to triple to get on track with the SDS by 2030.
Economic bioenergy solutions for a wider range of industry sectors are also needed.
Bioenergy consumption in 2018 versus 2030 contribution in the SDS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2018 2030 SDS 2018 2030 SDS 2018 2030 SDS
Bioenergy electricity generation Transport biofuels Bioenergy heat
Mto
e
Advanced
Conventional
Buildings
Industry
On track Off track Off track
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Stronger policy support and innovation required for transport biofuels
Biodiesel & HVO production in ASEAN could grow more than any other region.
China, India and ASEAN countries combined provide half of the total growth.
Biofuel production growth 2019-24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Brazil United States EU China India ASEAN
Billion L
Ethanol Biodiesel & HVO
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Biofuels a key solution in hard to electrify transport modes
Road freight, aviation and shipping account for 2/3 of biofuels consumption in the SDS by 2040.
Advanced biofuels from wastes and residues need massive innovation push to accelerate after 2030.
Biofuel consumption by transport mode in the SDS (2015-40)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mtoe
Passenger vehicles Road freight Aviation Shipping Advanced biofuel share (right-axis)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Many emerging countries have taken steps to reduce fossil fuel subsidies
Low oil price environment has allowed many countries to reduce subsidies and increase prices of fuels
Efforts to reduce fossil fuel subsidies in selected countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017
Saudi
Arabia
Egypt
Argentina, Indonesia
Malaysia
Kuwait, Zambia
Mexico
MozambiquePakistan
Bangladesh
Argentina, Indonesia
India
Bahrain, Oman, Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela
Ukrine
India
Indonesia
Malaysia, Morocco
MalaysiaViet Nam
2018
Inte
rnati
on
al o
il p
rice
s ($
/bb
l)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
CETP completed an impactful inaugural year
Launched in the margins of the 2017 Ministerial to accelerate global energy transitions, to help
fulfil our Ministerial Mandates and to strengthen our overall IEA Family
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Overview of the Clean Energy Transitions Programme
1. Data and statistics
High-level
engagement
Joint learning and
knowledge
exchanges (training)
Country-level policy
and implementation
Multi-lateral
dialogue
Six main areas
Four key pillars
2. Energy efficiency (E4
phase 2)3. Electricity
5. Sectoral work4. Policy advice and
modelling
Six key countries Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico South Africa
Association
countries
Regional focus
(Latin America,
Africa, ASEAN)
Global focus (e.g.
stats)+ Broader
geographical impact
6. Innovation
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Concluding remarks
• Global CO2 emissions are on the rise again indicating growing disconnect between climate goals and
energy-market trends
• Only 7 of 45 energy technologies and sectors are on track for what is required to reach a sustainable
energy future
• Modern bioenergy represents the largest source of renewable energy today, and is also the biggest
renewable contributor to GHG emission reductions in the IEA SDS in 2030.
• New policy impetus is needed to boost technology innovation and accelerate deployment to bring
transport biofuels and bioenergy for heat on track with the IEA SDS.
• Sustainability must be ensured with effective governance frameworks, that need to be applied more
widely and cover the full range of end uses. GBEP’s sustainability indicators can play a key role.
• The IEA is collaborating with partnerships worldwide to scale up sustainable bioenergy. As Facilitator to
the Biofuture Platform, we are committed to providing timely data, rigorous analysis, and to fostering
collaborations with GBEP, IEA Bioenergy TCP, CEM, MI, IRENA, FAO, WBCSD,…
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
iea.org/tracking
iea.org/innovation
iea.org/tcep
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Sustainable bioenergy can provide wide-ranging benefits
In addition to CO2 emissions reductions, sustainable bioenergy can contribute to enhancing
security of supply and improving air quality
Assessed security of supply benefit from biofuels 2024 (left) air pollutant emission reduction from biomethane (right)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
India Indonesia
kb
/d
Import dependency Import dependency if no biofuels
(gasoline/ethanol) (diesel/biodiesel)
Air pollutant analysis from IEA AMF TCP on Euro 3 medium freight trucks.
-100%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
NOx PM VOCs
Biomethane
Em
issi
ons
rela
tive
to d
iese
l
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Emerging economies can help lead energy transitions
China accounts for the largest absolute growth in renewable energy over the forecast period
Renewables contribution to energy consumption by country in 2017 and 2023
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2017 2023 2017 2023 2017 2023 2017 2023 2017 2023
European Union China United States Brazil India
Mtoe
Modern bioenergy Hydropower Wind Solar PV Others % of renewables (right axis)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Power
Renewable power
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Hydropower
Bioenergy
Geothermal
Concentrating solar
power
Ocean
Nuclear power
Natural gas-fired power
Coal-fired power
CCUS in power
Industry
Chemicals
Iron and steel
Cement
Pulp and paper
Aluminium
CCUS in industry &
transformation
Transport
Electric vehicles
Fuel economy
Trucks & buses
Transport biofuels
Aviation
International shipping
Rail
Buildings
Building
envelopes
Heating
Heat pumps
Cooling
Lighting
Appliances &
equipment
Data centres
and networks
Energy
storage
Hydrogen
Smart grids
Demand
response
Energy integrationFuel supply
Methane emissions from oil and gas
Flaring emissions
