BBiofuels for Transport:iofuels for Transport: Global Potentials & Implications Global Potentials & Implications

for Developmentfor Development

Suzanne HuntSuzanne HuntWorldwatch Worldwatch

InstituteInstitute

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BIOFUELS FOR TRANSPORTATION: BIOFUELS FOR TRANSPORTATION: GLOBAL POTENTIAL AND GLOBAL POTENTIAL AND

IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY IN THE AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY IN THE

21ST CENTURY21ST CENTURY

Funded by the Funded by the German Ministry of Food, German Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Consumer Protection Agriculture, and Consumer Protection

May 16May 16thth Release Release June 7June 7thth Capital Hill Event Capital Hill Event

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Cellulosic Biofuels Potential ProjectionsCellulosic Biofuels Potential Projections

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

En

erg

y (E

xajo

ule

s p

er y

ear)

WEC ED

IIASA-WEC A3

IIASA-WEC C1

IIASA-WEC C2

IIASA-WEC A1

IIASA-WEC B

IIASA-WEC A2

FFES

GCAM

Swisher Max

Swisher Pract

U.S. EPA SCWP

U.S. EPA RCWP

Særensen

Særensen alt.EstimateRIGES

LESS (BI andIMAGE)BATTJES BF1

BATTJES BF2

GLUE Practical

GLUE Ultimate

Fischer 2050 (low)

Fischer 2050 (high)

DESSUS

SHELL SG

SHELL DM

SRES A1

SRES B1

Source: Berndes et al.

Global primary energy consumption, 2005

A Review of 13 Studies on Biomass Potential, 2010–2100A Review of 13 Studies on Biomass Potential, 2010–2100

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Cellulosic Biofuels Potential Cellulosic Biofuels Potential Theoretically HugeTheoretically Huge

Germany: 25% petroleum displacement by 2030 with home grown cellulosic biofuels, (even with strict conservation priorities)

U.S.: 30% of our petroleum displacement 2030

A U.S. city of 1 million people generates enough municipal solid waste to produce 150 million liters of ethanol

Energy crop breeding: yields could double or triple after they benefit from focused breeding efforts

Waste bagasse at sugar cane mills could double ethanol yields; with harvesting of leaves and tips, ethanol yields could triple

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Near to Medium TermNear to Medium Term

Current generation fuels likely to Current generation fuels likely to dominatedominate

Developing countries well situated Developing countries well situated for sugar and oilseed production for sugar and oilseed production • Sugar cane is uniquely productiveSugar cane is uniquely productive

Country/region specific analyses are Country/region specific analyses are needed to assess appropriate crops, needed to assess appropriate crops, policies, investment levels, etc. policies, investment levels, etc.

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Biofuel Yields of Selected Ethanol Biofuel Yields of Selected Ethanol

and Biodiesel Feedstockand Biodiesel Feedstock

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Barley Wheat Corn Sugar beet Sugarcane

Soybean Castorbeans

Sunflowerseed

Rapeseed Jatropha Palm oil

Lite

rs p

er H

ecta

re

S o u rc e : F u lto n e t a l.

Ethanol Feedstock

Biodiesel Feedstock

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Convential Biofuels – Limiting Convential Biofuels – Limiting FactorsFactors

High food and feed pricesHigh food and feed prices

• rapeseed oil and sugar pricesrapeseed oil and sugar prices Other competing usesOther competing uses

• BiomaterialsBiomaterials Expansion of cropland onto sensitive areasExpansion of cropland onto sensitive areas

• Brazilian cerrado; rainforests in Indonesia and Brazilian cerrado; rainforests in Indonesia and Malaysia; Conservation Reserve lands in the U.S.Malaysia; Conservation Reserve lands in the U.S.

Overstressed water suppliesOverstressed water supplies

• Fossil aquifers in northern China, across India, and Fossil aquifers in northern China, across India, and the western corn/soy belt in the U.S.the western corn/soy belt in the U.S.

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Developing World PotentialDeveloping World Potential Large biomass potential in the developing worldLarge biomass potential in the developing world

• Latin America, Caribbean, & Sub-Saharan AfricaLatin America, Caribbean, & Sub-Saharan Africa Potential to substitute for expensive oil importsPotential to substitute for expensive oil imports

• Indonesia, $14 billion in oil subsidies in 2005, or about a Indonesia, $14 billion in oil subsidies in 2005, or about a third of government expendituresthird of government expenditures

• Similar situations are found in much of AfricaSimilar situations are found in much of Africa

• The Caribbean in 2002, petroleum products represented an The Caribbean in 2002, petroleum products represented an average of 93% of total consumption average of 93% of total consumption

Diversify energy portfoliosDiversify energy portfolios Attract foreign investmentAttract foreign investment Potential suppliers of biofuels to the global market Potential suppliers of biofuels to the global market

• e.g. much of Africae.g. much of Africa

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Achieving This PotentialAchieving This Potential Priority given to meeting domestic needsPriority given to meeting domestic needs

• Export opportunities can be explored that would Export opportunities can be explored that would serve to co-finance production for local needsserve to co-finance production for local needs

Development impact maximization Development impact maximization

• Farmer ownershipFarmer ownership

• Job creationJob creation Strong environmental and social protections, rule Strong environmental and social protections, rule

of law, and governance of law, and governance Country/region specific analyses are needed to Country/region specific analyses are needed to

assess appropriate crops, policies, investment assess appropriate crops, policies, investment levels, etc.levels, etc.

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Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts

Physical potential hugePhysical potential huge Matter of policy Matter of policy Peak oil, spare capacity, China’s cars Peak oil, spare capacity, China’s cars

and America's SUVsand America's SUVs Role of Brazil and its experienceRole of Brazil and its experience

• Especially in sugar producing countriesEspecially in sugar producing countries Role of the WBG: global funding of Role of the WBG: global funding of

knowledge transferknowledge transfer

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