Upload
vutuong
View
213
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Value Generation
Biofuels: The 35 Years Experience of Brazil
Prof. Dr. Marcos Fava NevesSchool of Business – University of Sao Paulo – Brazil
Markestrat Research Center
Biofuels Debate – IAMA Forum 2009 – BUDAPEST - HUNGARY
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
2
Value Generation
1979 starts the sale of the 100% ethanol cars
Brazilian Experience: 1979
Fonte: MME, 2005
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
5
Value Generation
Addressing Questions1 – Will the world need energy?2 – The Basics of sugar cane and the Company
Network3 – Is it efficient?4 – Is it consumer driven?5 – Where will the market be? 6 – Does it contribute to the environment?7 – Is it destroying the Amazon? Where will it
grow?8 – What is the strategic agenda?
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
7
Value Generation
Elaboração: GV Agro Fonte: BPStatistical Review of World Energy 7
per capitaper capita consumption of energy 2006consumption of energy 2006
TrTróópico de Câncerpico de Câncer
TrTróópico de Capricpico de Capricóórniornio
EquadorEquador
Em toneladas de Em toneladas de óóleo equivalenteleo equivalente
Região Tropical: favorável à produção de cana
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
9
Value Generation
9Oil is not only gasoline and diesel
Fonte: Caio Carvalho – Polo Nacional de Biocombustíveis
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
13
Value Generation
Source: UNICA
Energy equivalent of 1 tonne of sugarcane = 1.2 oil barrel
BREAKDOWN OF SUGARCANE’S ENERGY
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
14
Value Generation
CIA. ENERGÉTICA SANTA ELISA CIA AÇUCAREIRA VALE DO ROSÁRIO
USINA DE AÇÚCAR E ÁLCOOL MB LTDA USINA MOEMA AÇÚCAR E ÁLCOOL LTDA
400 industrial units in the country
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
16
Value Generation
The Complex Sugar Cane Energy NetworkInsumos Produção Indústria
Defensivos
Fertilizantes
MáquinasImplementos
Peças
Serviços
Outros
Arrendamento
Parceria
Fornecedores
UsinaFoco
InsumosIndústria
Outras UsinasConcorrentes
Outras EmpresasNão Concorrentes
Produtos + Serviços$ + Informação
Álcool
Açúcar
Bagaço
Outros
Distribuidoras
Indústrias
Traders
Postos
****CONSUMI DOR
F INAL****
Empresas Diversas
Traders
Ind. Alimentos
Ind. Químicas
Ind. Empacotadora
Mercado Global
Mercado Global
Empresas Diversas
Empresas Diversas
Atacado/Varejo
Consumo próprio
Co-geração Energia Distribuidoras
Ind. Fertilizantes
Levedura – Ração Pecuária...
Outros
Agricultura...
Distribuição
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
17
Value Generation
Important Question
3 - Is it efficient in supplying energy?
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
18
Value Generation
Efficiency of Biofuels Feedstocks
Note: Figures represent the amount of energy contained in the listed fuel per unit of fossil fuel input.
Source: Various, compiled by World Watch Institute. IEA – International Energy Agency (2005) and MTEC .
ETHANOL BIODIESEL
Fossil Energy Balances (estimates) Ethanol Yields (liters per hectare)
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
19
Value Generation
1,7
67,8
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
70 75 80 85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
milh
ões
de h
a
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
milh
ões
de t
onel
adas
Área Preserved **
Área Planted (million ha)
Production (million ton)
6,6 million ha preserved
Sugar Cane Productivity Evolution
Fonte: IBGE (Censo Agropecuário: 1970-1975-1980-1985; PAM (1990 até 2006); e LSPA (2007 e 2008) Elaboração: GV Agro Nota: * Estimativa **Área calculada a partir da produtividade média de 1970
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
20
Value Generation
Important Question
4 - What was our major technological breakthrough?
We gave the power to the consumer!
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
22
Value Generation
Sources: ANP, ANFAVEA & UNICA
Demand is Driven by Consumer Choice
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
25
Value Generation
Recent Numbers on Ethanol
2 million new flex fuel cars entering on the market in 2009…
April retail costs:Gallon of gasoline: US$ 4.0/gallonGallon of ethanol (E100): US$ 1.9/gallonEthanol production cost: US$ 0.98/gallonPrices of ethanol/gasoline: 50-65%Economic benefit till 70-75%Environment and employment benefit?
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
26
Value Generation
Important Question
5 - Where will the market of ethanol be?
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
29
Value Generation
Important Question
6 - Does it contribute to the environment?
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
30
Value Generation
Mata Ciliar• 30 ou 50 metros• Carreador de 6 metros (sem vegetação)• Aceiro de 3 metros (corta cana crua ou inclina a cana no sentido do canavial)
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
31
Value Generation
Represa/lagoaEspelho d’água
Área de nascente/várzea
Mata ciliarRecém plantada
Remanescente florestal
Value Generation
The “Green Protocol” in São Paulo State
Note: the highlighted dots in the graphic lines show the specific years cited by the Law or in the Protocol. Prepared by: UNICA.
Elimination of the of sugarcane straw burning State of São Paulo – mechanized areas
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2010 2011 2014 2016 2021
Law 11.241/02
Agro-EnvironmentalProtocol
Per
cep
tual
of h
arve
sted
sug
ar c
ane
with
out
bu
rnin
g p
ract
ice
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
33
Value Generation
ABRIGO/REFEITABRIGO/REFEITÓÓRIO/SANITRIO/SANITÁÁRIO: FR. CARREGAMENTORIO: FR. CARREGAMENTO
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
35
Value Generation
General Motors S 10
Emissão de gases (viagem de 100km percorrida pelo mesmo veículo)
Modelo S 10 cabine
simples S 10 cabine
simples S 10 cabine
simples
Motor 2.8 turbo 2,4 flexpower 2,4 flexpower
Combustível Diesel Gasolina pura Álcool
Rendimento 13,5 km/litro 10,4 km/litro 7,2 km/litro
Potência máxima 140cv 141cv 147cv
Emissão de GEE* (Kg CO2) 29,69 35,1 9,44
Quantidade de litros gastos 7,41 9,62 13,89
Elaborado por: MarkestratFonte: Embrapa *Gases de efeito estufa
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
36
Value Generation
Important Question
7 - Is it destroying the Amazon?
And where will it grow?
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
37
Value Generation
Sources: NIPE-Unicamp, IBGE and CTC
Sugarcane producing regions in Brazil
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
38
Value Generation
Fonte: UNICAMP
Excluídas a Região Amazônica, Pantanal e declividades
superiores a 12%
Soil and climate possibilities for sugar caneSoil and climate possibilities for sugar cane
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
39
Value Generation
Still a lot of Land to be Used in a Sustainable Way
15549
35178
2494190
12602100
840
Million Acres and
247 million acres to be developed for agriculture
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
41
Value Generation
EXPANSION OF PRODUCTION IN SÃO PAULO
Moagem 2009
Moagem 2005
Moagem 2006
Moagem 2007
Moagem 2008
Fonte: UNICA
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
42
Value Generation
RESULT ANALYSIS (Sugar Cane)
Figure 2: Production, Productivity and total area of Brazilian sugar cane from 1975 to 2006. Source: Prepared by the authors based on UDOP.
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
300,00
350,00
400,00
450,00
500,00
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Áre
a / P
rodu
tivid
ade
Prod
ução
Produção (milhões t) Produtividade (t/ha) Área Colhida (milhões ha)Production (x 1,000,000 t) Productivity ( t/ha) Area ( x 1,000,000 ha)
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
43
Value Generation
RESULT ANALYSIS (Corn - SP)
Figure 3: Production and Productivity of corn in the state of São Paulo between 1976 and 2008*.Source: Prepared by the authors based on data from (CONAB, 2008).* Estimate.
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
1976
/77
1978
/79
1980
/81
1982
/83
1984
/85
1986
/87
1988
/89
1991
/92
1993
/94
1995
/96
1997
/98
1999
/200
0
2001
/02
2003
/04
2005
/06
2007
/08
(2) P
revi
são -
500,0
1.000,0
1.500,0
2.000,0
2.500,0
3.000,0
3.500,0
4.000,0
4.500,0
5.000,0
Produção (mil ton.) Área (mil ha) Produtividade (kg/ha)Production (x 1,000 t) Area (x 1,000 ha) Productivity (kg/ha)
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
45
Value Generation
My Views of US Ethanol: Win Win Strategy
BENEFITS
Environment (contribution to climate and others)
Employment (a lot of jobs generated)
Empowerment (money moving to inlands)
Energy (another source + diversified)
Exports (trade balance)
Economy (distribution of income)
RECENT EVIDENCEMandates of 15-20%Corn ethanol as additive to gasolineFlex Fuel Cars using E85 when oil prices climbSecond generation ethanol being developed for 2015-2020, more blending and more use as E85Possible imports from Brazil to supply blending needs towards coast states (California. Florida and Texas). Makes sense in logistic terms.
Source: Prof. Marcos Fava Neves
NEW ERAEthanol can bring a reconfiguration of the relationships of the USA with Central and South America
ww
w.m
arke
stra
t.org
47
Value Generation
Ethanol Strategic AgendaInternally
• Taxes reduced to 12% (ICMS) in all states.
• From E 20/25%, to E 18/28%. • Flex Fuel Vehicles Incentives.• Directs sales of ethanol from
industry to gas stations. • Motorcycles flex and larger engines
flex (diesel).• joint-ventures to enter on the
market of wholesaling and retailing.• The Concept of Green Gas
Stations.• City buses moved by ethanol.• Petrobras exporting gasoline
blended with ethanol.• Continuous communication plan
Fonte: Prof. Marcos Fava Neves
Externally
• Fight against protectionism •Stimulate overall production (Africa and Asia)• Stimulate and follow mandates of percentages of added ethanol to gasoline • Work on ethanol myths: Amazon, Land shortage, slaves and others.• Certification and global patterns• Image: differentiation of cane ethanol based on superior energy balance and future potential• global adoption of flex-fuel cars and ethanol retailing system• Joint-ventures with oil companies (BP, Petrobras e Shell).