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MADEIRA 2008 - Congresso Internacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico Sustentável da Indústria de Base Florestal e de Geração de Energia, 10 e 11 de Dezembro, Hotel Plaza São Rafael, Porto Alegre, RS.
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Madeira 2008December 10, 2008
Lynn Wright, WrightLink Consulting, Adjunct Faculty, University of [email protected]
US biofuels market/current ethanol production
Status of cellulosic biofuels production and technology development
Cost targets and current estimates of cellulosic biofuels costs with examples
Feedstock supply requirements, costs, new technology
Alternative advanced transportation biofuel
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 Mandates : 2008 Ethanol Production:
9 Billion Gallons
2022 Total Biofuels Target: 36 Billion Gallons
2022 Advanced Biofuels Target: 21 Billion Gal. Cellulosic Biofuels target:
16 Billion Gal.
Feedstocks include:
Corn starch – 99%Wheat starchMilo starchBarley starchCheese wheyPotato wasteBrewery wasteWood waste*Sugar Cane Bagasse*
* Two demo facilities are currently producing up to 3 mgy of cellulosic ethanol
Total capacity is 11,051 million gallons per year (mgy) at 180 refineries
Source: Renewable Fuels Association: www.ethanolrfa.org
Commercial Demonstration
Pil0t
Completed none 3 7Under Construction
1 2 2
Plans Announced
14 13 6
Total 15 18 1548 cellulosic projects total;29 projects are currently receiving US or Canadian federal and state support as of December 2008
Both US and Canada have recently announced new programs to assist advanced biofuels commercialization. Source: Lynn Wright survey of biomass information sources in 2008
BioEnergy Science Center: Oak Ridge National Laboratory and partners:
•cell-wall deconstruction
•consolidated bioprocessing microbes
• poplar and switchgrass engineering
Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center: Univ. of Wisconsin / Michigan State University and partners:
• new crops (e.g. Miscanthus)
• increasing plant production of starches and oils
• sustainable systems
Joint BioEnergy Institute: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and partners:
• rice and Arabodopsis plant models
• microbal-based synthesis of Biofuels
DuPont Danisco Cellulosic Ethanol, LLC and the University of Tennessee broke ground on October 14, 2008 for an innovative pilot scale biorefinery.
The feedstocks will be corn cobs, corn fiber and switchgrass grown by Tennessee farmers
Ethanol production is anticipated by end of 2009
Technology Product (s)
Commercial projects
Demo & pilot projects
Thermochemical (Gasification/catalysis)
FT liquids 4 4
Thermochemical(Gasification/fermentation)
Ethanol, other chemicals
3 5
Biochemical (enzymatic hydrolysis – yeasts, various pretreatments)
Ethanol & electricity from lignin
4 7
Biochemical (ICB and other)
Ethanol 3 8
Fractionation & separation
Sugars +fiber + lignin
1 2
Fermentation of Citrus peels
ethanol 1
Combined thermo + bio processes and other
Ethanol & chemicals
6
Based on reports Aug 2008 conference, both biochemical and thermochemical processes show similar estimated costs in $1.50 to $2.50/gallon range
Graph from US National Biofuels Action Plan published October 2008: available from www.brdisolutions.com
Some companies are already claiming new technologies with potential ethanol production price of < $1.00 per gallon
Biochemical biofuels costs and 2012 targets
Ponderosa Mill – Base Case Biochemical Ethanol Process Substituted
Source: Phillips, Jameel & Clark (NC State University), Aug 2008, TAPPI International Bioenergy and Bioproducts Conference Presentation “Technical and Economic Analysis of Repurposing a Kraft Pulp and Paper Mill to the Production of Ethanol”
Source: Phillips, Jameel & Clark (NC State University), Aug 2008, TAPPI International Bioenergy and Bioproducts Conference
All cases assume $0.30 enzyme cost
Source: Koch et al (Georgia Institute of Technology), August 2008, TAPPI International Biomass and Bioenergy Conference.
Effect on Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP)
= MESP $2.21= MESP $1.89
= MESP $1.57
Feedstock cost significantly affects ethanol cost
Key assumptions: total alcohol yield/dry ton ~92.5 gal (ethanol ~ 78 gal; higher alcohols ~ 14.5 gal); feedstock is bark and residue of southern pine; steam from gasifier used for pulping processes.
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 3 results in adequate feedstocks to meet 2022 mandate, at lowest price ~ $45 per dry ton.
Inclusion of 4 Billion Gallons per year of biofuel imports reduces residue use more than energy crop production.
Most wood residue captured at < $30/dry ton (roadside)
All types of forestland wood, is captured at < $50/dry ton (roadside)
Source: Report by Biomass Research and Development Board entitled: “Increasing Feedstock Production for Biofuels”. Released Dec 2008.
www.brdisolutions.com
Region Farm Cost$/dry ton
Harvest Cost$/dry ton
Total Cost$/dry ton
Pacific Northwest
31 32 63
North Central
30 30 60
Mississippi Valley
24 28 52
Source; Report by Jake Eaton of GreenWood Resources at Aug 2008 Short Rotation Crops Meeting
Poplar Biomass Production Costs1
1 Growing costs reported as NPV (6.5% discount rate) per dry ton, inclusive of the cost of land rent, site preparation, planting stock, planting, and crop care through the rotation
Energy Performance Systems patented technologywww.energyperformancesystems.com
•Cuts, accumulates & loads trailer•Cuts 1 tree/second w/o stopping•Field transports up to 90 tons •Travels up to 12 MPH empty•Handles large size range of trees•Size: 50 ft long, 16 ft wide, 28 ft tall
Whole Tree Harvester for Planted Trees
Status: prototype harvester fabrication nearly complete
GPS guided, 6 row, high-speed tree planter
•Tree injection operates by hydraulics•6 trees injected in ground every 1.5 seconds•Optimum rate at 5ft x 5 ft spacing = 8.3 ac/hr•No. injection positions/spacing can vary
Status – tested in 2007Design improvements ongoing.
Source: Yang and Wyman, Aug 2008, TAPPI International Biofuels &Bioenergy Conference
Vehicle Type Biomass Type
Miles/acre
Total VMT
% U.S. VMT2
Ethanol (current technology)
Corn grain 4,640 93 billion
3.5%
All-electric (current technology
Hybrid poplar
34,000 688 billion
26%
Biogasoline (new technology
Hybrid poplar
34,000 660 billion
25%
All-electric (new technology
Hybrid poplar
134,000 2.68 trillion
100%
Source: Draft paper by Ragland, Ostlie and Wright entitled “Electric Vehicles Compared to Ethanol-Fueled Vehicles (paper still in review as of Dec 2008)
Estimated Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) using 20 million acres of land.
1 20 million acres of land is currently used to produce corn grain for ethanol fuels2 Current total vehicle miles traveled in US is 2.69 trillion
* US Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 requires consideration of indirect land-use effects
N.A. cellulosic biofuels market are/will be large. Government support strong.
Many projects started/planned, one near commercial start.
Cost range of $1.00 to $2.50/gal.Feedstocks include plantation grown
woodFeedstock and equipment engineering
will reduce plantation wood costsBiomass electric/ electric vehicle
technology should be considered.
Ask me later about my hybrid poplar project in Minnesota