Cholera: Next Door?BioQUEST 2012

Case Study Format◦ Learning Objectives◦ Resources

Data Analysis & Visualization◦ Tools◦ Statistics

Assessment

Module Design

In this module, students will:◦ (1) investigate the natural history of Vibrio cholerae, a

pathogenic bacterium of global and historical significance. Use their knowledge of the organism’s biology to predict conditions favorable for epidemics.

◦ (2) compare and contrast cholera outbreaks from multiple locations. Determine whether demographic, environmental, or other variables are associated with an epidemic’s magnitude of impact.

◦ (3) model (or predict or explain) potential modes of disease transmission and/or dynamics of disease spread during an epidemic.

◦ (4) improve foundational skills in: searching and obtaining data available online; evaluating quality of datasets from a variety of sources; and interpreting, analyzing, and visualizing diverse types of data

Learning Objectives:

News & Media http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.p

hp?id=44401&utm_source=catholic.org%2Fhomepage&utm_medium=banner&utm_content=latest%2Bnews - Catholic Online, posted 1/13/12

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/health/haitian-cholera-epidemic-traced-to-first-known-victim.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=cholera%20haiti&st=cse - discovery of first cholera case in Haiti, NYT 1/10/12

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=144929218 - discovery of first cholera case in Haiti

Natural history, symptoms, epidemiology, general information

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs107/en/index.html - WHO

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001348/ - PubMed Health

http://www.cdc.gov/cholera/general/ http://www.cdc.gov/haiticholera/ - CDC

Online Resources:

Accounts, reports of outbreaks http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/cholera/en/index.html -

periodic updates about outbreaks globally Profiles of Countries with Cholera http://www.who.int/cholera/countries/en/index.html - general

information (geographic, economic, environmental) for countries with cholera in their histories

Data http://apps.who.int/ghodata/?vid=2250 - cases, deaths, fatality rates

by country, year http://www.who.int/cholera/statistics/en/index.html - articles compiled

annually with raw data http://www.who.int/gho/epidemic_diseases/cholera/en/index.html -

maps with data for cases, fatalities http://emergency.cdc.gov/situationawareness/haiticholera/data.asp -

stratified by region and demographics

Online Resources:

Maps http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/sea

rchResults.aspx - WHO Cholera Map Library

http://emergency.cdc.gov/situationawareness/haiticholera/staticmaps.asp - multiple static maps (distribution of outbreaks, cumulative attack rates, etc)

http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/cholera/atlas.html - interactive http://new.paho.org/hq/images/Atlas_IHR/CholeraHispaniola/atlas.html - interactive

http://www.bt.cdc.gov/situationawareness/haiticholera/Flash/bt/atlas.html - interactive, multiple filters and resolutions

Online Resources:

http://books.google.com/books?id=LIYaAAAAMAAJ&lpg=PA173&ots=3A_xyGSTMb&dq=Cholera%20epidemic%20map%20of%20Nashville%2C%20Tennessee%2C%201873%20%2F%20Ely%20McClellan.&pg=PP11#v=onepage&q&f=true

Cholera epidemic map of Nashville, Tennessee, 1873 / Ely McClellan.

http://www.nlm.nih.gov/exhibition/cholera/images/a024226.jpg

http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map231_ver5.pdf

www.bit.ly/w6m9YO

Pam American Health OrganizationInteractive map http://new.paho.org/hq/images/Atlas_IHR/Ch

oleraHispaniola/atlas.html

1) Finding the “RIGHT” parameters a) Sanitation b) Population Density c) Environmental Conditions d) Non availability of Clean water e) Limited Access to health care f) General Awareness of disease spread etc……..

Statistical Analysis

Approach 1) Undergraduate Level a) Study the data set b) Descriptive statistics c) Plot the data d) Use Regression Approach e) Find the optimal model f) Run the model diagnostics

Crunching the Data

Approach 2) Graduate Level a) All above b) Non-normal distribution c) Poisson Modeling c) MLE approach d) Bayesian Model e) Find the optimal model f) Run the model diagnostics

Crunching the Data

Pre/Post-Test Assessment◦ Learning & Thinking Skills

Presentations, Activities, Group Work◦ Science Process Skills

Solving problems, critical thinking, testing hypothesis◦ Attitudes Toward Science

Comfort & confidence◦ Module Content

Background info, mode of action & transmission, data analysis tools

Assessment