The eye of #Maysak typhoon / NASA

INFLUENCE OF WEATHER ON THE ECONOMY

We all know how the weather affects people’s mood. When it is sunny and warm, similar feeling stir in people and they start to feel happy and are in a good mood. On the other hand, people are often cranky and in a bad mood when it is gloomy and rainy outside.

This is a result of hormones affecting the human body. Melatonin levels, the hormone that causes sleepiness, rise when cloudy skies darken and this sends signals to the brain stimulating the need for sleep. The hormone serotonin has a completely opposite effect.It increases activity, gives stamina and maintains a good mood. Its levels rise according to the amount of sunlight available.

People are usually aware of this meteorological influence, but sometimes we forget that the weather can also influence the economy.Extremely bad weather may entice people to behave in an interesting way - to stockpile - which increases consumer demand, the opposite of what would be expected of bad weather. Because of this impulse for stockpiling people gather supplies and means

of protection in the event such products become unavailable in the time to come, meaning shops, hardware stores and similar businesses see a rise in business.

INTRODUCTION

AGRICULTURE TOURISM

The most direct influence of weather on the economy can be observed in agriculture.

Agriculture’s contribution to the world’s GDP, according to 2013 estimates, amounts to

around 6%, that is, around USD 4,500,000,000,000.

6% 9,5%

Tourism contributed around 9.5% to the world’s GDP in

2013, that is, around USD 7,000,000,000,000.

254 x Croatia’s state budget

(HRK 124 billion)

HRK 31,500,000,000,000

0,1% =Croatia’s share in world tourism

Croatia’s tourism income = HRK 7 billion

SECTORS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEATHER

=

=

According to 2012 data, natural disasters had the greatest relative share in the total number of damages. The influence of natural disasters becomes even more apparent when observing the share in total losses, as 92% of financial losses are

caused by natural disasters. This would suggest they are by far more destructive than those caused by man.

DAMAGE FREQUENCY AND LOSSES COMPARISON ACCORDING TO CAUSE

SHARE IN TOTAL NUMBER OF DAMAGES SHARE IN TOTAL LOSSES

47%8%

53%

92%

natural disasters

natural disasters

manman

Due to snow, rain and wind, roads and airports are frequently closed and ferry lines stop operating. It is interesting to note that around 70% of delays in the US

National Airspace System are caused by bad weather. According to the same system, weather is the cause of between 10 and 40

thousand hours of delays a month, the equivalent of $249,500 to $998,000 monthly.

70%

mlrd $

According to 2012 data. The overview of individual events that caused the greatest insurance losses shows that the greatest damages were caused by bad weather. Hurricane Katrina, which hit the USA’s south coast in 2005, was the event

that caused the most insurance payouts for damages in history.

THE PRICE OF A HURRICANE

Hurricane Katrina

80,425,7

Earthquake/tsunami Japan

Earthquake in New Zelan

Earthquake in Chile

Winter storm Daria

Croatia’s GDP (2013)

Winter storm Lothar

Major storm in Alabama

Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane AndrewTerror attack on WTC

Nortridge earthquake

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ivan

Hurricane Wilma

Hurricane Charley

Hurricane Hugo

Typhoon Mireille

Hurricane Rita

Drought in the Corn Belt/U.S.

Floods in Thailand

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

37,727,6

22,9

22,8

17,2

16,5

16,1

11,6

10,3

10,0

8,9

8,7

8,4

7,7

8,9

15,6

12,5

39,4

36,9

The systematic naming of hurricanes began during WW2. Until 1970, hurricanes were only given female names. From that point on, they are given both male and female names.Female named hurricanes caused around three times more deaths than male named ones.

Natural disasters positively influence innovation development. A research into the correlation between natural disasters and the number of registered patents done in 2013 showed that in the last 5 years, for every additional USD billion of damages to crops due to drought, the number of registered patents related to increasing crop resistance to drought increased by around 20%.

$ billion

+3°C = - $1.18 billion

LOSSES DUE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES(FROM 2 TO 6 JULY 2015)

HOW WE CALCULATED EU ECONOMY’S LOSSES

Temperatures in individual EU states are approximated to average temperatures in their capitals. It is necessary to study which EU states recorded a minimal average temperature of 25°C or above in 24 hour period and recorded a rise in temperature by 6 July. Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Malta meet these conditions. They recorded an average temperature rise of 1.5°C, when calculating the arithmetic mean temperature rise. For each 1°C above 25°C, productivity drops by 2%. A 1.5°C temperature rise caused a 3%

productivity drop. Seeing as these four countries create on average a value of $39.25 billion in a five-day period, the 3% productivity drop caused a $1.18 billion loss.

Spain

Italy

MaltaCyprus

The theory that climate conditions affect work productivity dates back to Ancient Greece.Workers are most productive in spring and autumn, when temperatures are moderate.

Temperatures affect political stability as well.Periods of drought increase the likelihood of unrest and conflict - In African countries, a 1ºC rise in temperature increases the chance of a conflict by 4.5%.

Vostok

Barrow

There are optimal weather conditions for each economic activity. However, extreme weather conditions adversely affect the majority of

usual economic activities.

WEATHER EXTREMES

TEMPERATURES

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

-80

-90

-100

+56,7ºC

+42,8ºC

-89,2ºC

-34,6ºC

The record-high temperature

on Earth was recorded on 10

June 1913 at Furnace Creek Ranch in Death

Valley, California.

Furnace Creek

Gračac

HvarPloče

Yuma

Arica

Lowest temperature

ever recorded was on Vostok

station in Antarctica on

21st July 1983

Cherrapunji

When we observe the data for Croatia, we can see that the highest temperature, 42.8°C, was recorded on 4 August 1981 in the town of Ploče.Holding the record for lowest temperature in Croatia is the town of Gračac, where a temperature of -34.6°C was recorded on 13 January 2003.

The longest recorded period of drought lasted from October 1903 to January 1918, when it had not rained for

173 months in the Chilean town of Arica.

The longest period of rainfall was recorded at Kaneohe Ranch on the island of Oahu, State of Hawaii, where it rained for

247consecutive days(from 27 August 1993 to 30 April 1994).

Oahu, Hawaii

SUNNIEST CITY DROUGHT RAIN

4.015 sunshine hours in a yearYuma, Arizona

2.726 sunshine hours in a yearHvar, Croatia

PRECIPITATION

FASTEST WIND GUST

248 km/h Maslenica, Croatia

407 km/h Barrow, Australija

Most precipitation recorded in one yearwas

26,470 l/m2

in 1861 in Cherrapunji,India.

26m3

Earth

Like wind, man also uses the Sun as an energy source. This star, closest to us, produces literally unimaginable amounts of energy.

SOLAR ENERGY

The Sun’s energy output

Although this percentage is immensely small, it

represents an amount of energy the production of

which would require 44 million large power plants

in a single year.

3.7 followed by 26 zeroeswatts in a single second

Such an amount of energy is sufficient to melt a block of ice 2 miles wide and 1 mile thick (3.22x1.61 km) stretching from the Earth to the Sun in one second.

Only a fraction of that vast amount of energy reaches the Earth.

The Sun

0.000000.0000000000000004%

Only India and Japan have over 1000 litres of precipitation annually amongst the largest producers of electricity by wind. Simultaneously, only three countries (of the 20 included

in this analysis) have an annual temperature average above 20 degrees.

TOP 20 COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO WIND POWER PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD

China114.763

United States114.763

Germany39.165

Spain22.987

India22.465

United Kingdom12.440

Canada9.694

France9.285

 Italy8.663

Brazil5.939

Sweden5.425

Portugal4.914

Denmark4.845

Poland3.834

Australia3.806

Turkey3.763

Romania2.954

Netherlands2.805

Japan2.789

Mexico2.551

Temperature

PrecipitationElectricity production (MW)

Wind is most used in cold

countries with little precipitation

Wind industry contribution to the EU’s GDP € 32.43 billion(0.3% share in GDP, 2010), which is an increase by a third since 2007

43 km/h wind speed for maximum electricity production efficiency

There are four countries with a GDP per capita above 30000 dollars and five countries with a GDP per capita below 10000 dollars amongst the top 20 countries in the world according to record earthquake magnitudes. Indonesia has the worst earthquake magnitude to economic

development ratio, seeing as they were hit by the third strongest ever-recorded earthquake while being an economically underdeveloped country.

TOP 20 COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE IN THE WORLD

Earthquakes have affected both rich and poor countries

equally

 Chile

 United States

 Indonesia

 Russia

 Japan

 Ecuador

 Colombia

 Canada

 India

 Peru

 China

 Mexico

 Bangladesh

 Samoa

 Bolivia

 Greece

 Portugal

 Mongolia

 New Zealand

 Philippines

9.5

9.3

9.2

9.0

9.0

8.8

8.8

8.7

8.6

8.6

8.6

8.6

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.2

GDP per capitaMagnitude of strongest earthquake

22,971

54,597

10,641

24,805

37,390

11,244

13,430

44,843

5,855

11,817

12,880

17,881

3,373

5,180

6,221

25,859

26,975

11,882

35,152

6,962

1.0 = 32 kg of TNT2.0 = 1000 kg of TNT (equivalent to the most powerful

conventional bombs used in WW2)3.0 = MOAB (USA’s most powerful conventional weapon, the

so-called “Mother of all Bombs”)4.0 = smaller nuclear weapon5.0 = approximate to the atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki

6.0 = 1,000,000 tons of TNT (one megaton)7.0 = 50 megaton (equivalent to the Soviet Tsar Bomba)

COMPARISON OF RICHTER SCALE MAGNITUDE ANDENERGY RELEASED BY MAN-MADE EXPLOSIONS

CORRELATION BETWEEN WEATHER CONDITIONSAND ECONOMIC STATUS OF WORLD’S COUNTRIES

WARMEST / COLDEST

RAINIEST / DRIEST

RICHEST / POOREST

GDP per capita(total)

Precipitation(total)

Countries Mean temperature in °C(total)

Richer countries are colder and drier

-0.6  Russia

0.2  Mongolia

2.6  Finland

3.4  Iceland

3.6  Canada

4.4  Norway

4.7  Sweden

5.5  Estonia

5.9  Kazakhstan

5.9  Belarus

6.0 Switzerland

6.0  Latvia

6.2  Slovakia

6.2  Lithuania

6.8  Czech Republic

6.9  Poland

7.0  Austria

7.2  Armenia

7.5  Denmark

7.8  Germany

Of the 20 warmest countries in the world, according to annual temperature averages, only 3 of them have an average GDP per capita above $10,000. On the other hand, this indicator is below $2,000 for 7 countries. The analysis of the 20 coldest countries in the world, according to

annual temperature averages, showed that only Armenia has an average GDP per capita below $10,000.

TOP 20 WARMEST vs. COLDEST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD

Djibouti 28.5

Mali 28.2

Burkina Faso 28.2

Gambia 28.0

Sudan 27.9

Maldives 27.7

Mauritania 27.5

Chad 27.5

Niger 27.5

Marshall Islands 27.4

Senegal 27.4

Kiribati 27.4

Tuvalu 27.3

Micronesia 27.3

Palau 27.2

Saint Lucia 27.2

Yemen 26.9

Cambodia 26.9

Benin 26.9

Guinea-Bissau 26.9

WARMEST COUNTRIES COLDEST COUNTRIES

GDP per capitaPrecipitation PrecipitationGDP per capitaTemperature in °C Temperature in °C

25

20

15

10

5

High temperatures

are followed by high levels of

poverty

Coldest countries have high quality

of life

21.7  Egypt

26.9  Yemen

25.5  Bahrain

26.8  Qatar

26.4  Oman

24.7  Kuwait

26.8 UAE

25.2  Saudi Arabia

15.4  Turkmenistan

28.5  Djibouti

22.6  Cape Verde

20.1  Libya

27.5  Mauritania

18.5  Jordan

22.4  Iraq

0.2  Mongolia

5.9  Kazakhstan

14.0  Uzbekistan

20.1  Namibia

27.9  Sudan

Amongst the countries with highest rainfall, Brunei stands out as the fourth richest country in the world according to GDP per capita. Amongst the poor rainy countries, Liberia is in last place with a GDP per capita below $1,000. Qatar, the wealthiest country in the world, is amongst the 20 driest

countries. On the other hand, however, there are also six countries with a GDP per capita below $10,000 amongst countries with least rainfall.

TOP 20 RAINIEST vs. DRIEST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD

RAINIEST COUNTRIES DRIEST COUNTRIES

Palau 27.2

Micronesia 27.3

Tuvalu 27.3

Solomon Islands 26.1

Samoa 25.7

Papua New Guinea 24.6

Brunei 26.5

Liberia 25.1

Sierra Leone 26.1

Malaysia 26.1

Nicaragua 25.9

Fiji 24.7

Marshall Islands 27.4

Vanuatu 24.2

Equatorial Guinea 24.4

Myanmar 25.6

Philippines 26.4

Guyana 26.2

Indonesia 26.3

Bangladesh 25.3

25

20

15

10

5

GDP per capitaPrecipitation PrecipitationGDP per capitaTemperature in °C Temperature in °C

Poorest countries dominate amongst

countries with highest rainfall

There are great differences

amongst countries thirsting for rain

24.9  Cent. African Rep.

23.5  Congo, Dem. Rep.

21.4  Malawi

25.1  Liberia

20.0  Burundi

27.5  Niger

23.6  Mozambique

23.3  Eritrea

25.5  Guinea

26.9  Guinea-Bissau

21.8  Madagascar

26.4  Togo

23.7  Comoros

19.3  Ethiopia

28.0  Gambia, The

28.2  Burkina Faso

19.0  Rwanda

27.4  Kiribati

28.2  Mali

24.8  Haiti

Six of the 20 wealthiest countries in the world, according to GDP per capita, have an average temperature average 25°C. Five of the wealthiest countries have less than 500 l of precipitation per m2 annually. All of the 20 poorest countries in the world have an average temperature above 19°C. There are great differences amongst the poorest countries concerning precipitation. Eritrea has less than 500 litres of rain per m2, while Liberia’s average is above 2,500 l.

TOP 20 RICHEST vs. POOREST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD

Qatar 26.8

Luxembourg 8.0

Singapore 26.5

Brunei 26.5

Kuwait 24.7

Norway 4.4

UAE 26.8

San Marino 12.8

Switzerland 6.0

United States 11.6

Saudi Arabia 25.2

Bahrain 25.5

Ireland 9.6

Netherlands 9.3

Australia 17.3

Austria 7.0

Sweden 4.7

Germany 7.8

Taiwan 21.6

Canada 3.6

RICHEST COUNTRIES POOREST COUNTRIES

25

20

15

10

5

GDP per capitaPrecipitation PrecipitationGDP per capitaTemperature in °C Temperature in °C

The richest countries are

either extremely hot or extremely

cold

Poorest countries are characterised

by great heat

Time elf Branimir KovačićThe elf in charge is 185 cm tall and likes long, sunny days the most. When taking a break from making analyses, he

likes to eat ice cream, blue and pink one the most.

Time elf Ivan DomšićAs he was born during winter, he prefers cold, snowy days. He is 190 cm tall, weighing 105 kg and loves

chocolate ice cream. With chocolate sauce, of course. :)