B&K Distributors Exhibits
Copyright
These spreadsheet exhibits relate to the case B&K
Distributors: ROI for a Web-Based Customer Portal, Case
#KEL149.
2006 by the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern
University. This case was prepared by Tim Riitters 02, in
collaboration with Jim Anfield, VP of business development for a
leading Chicago-based Internet consulting firm, under the
supervision of Professor Mark Jeffery. To order copies or request
permission to reproduce materials, call 800-545-7685 (or
617-783-7600 outside the United States or Canada) or e-mail
[email protected]. No part of this publication may be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or
transmitted in any form or by any meanselectronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording, or otherwisewithout the permission of the
Kellogg School of Management.
Exhibit 5Exhibit 5:Franchise Penetration Over TimeYear 0Year
1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Penetration Rate:50%60%65%68%70%70%
Exhibit 6Exhibit 6:Projected Tier Migration Over TimeYear 0Year
1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5A Tier25%28%30%32%33%33%B
Tier55%58%60%60%60%60%C
Tier20%14%10%8%7%7%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Exhibit 8Exhibit 8:Cost Per Order By ChannelPhoneFax/MailWebCost
Per Order$32.50$25.00$3.00Inflation Rate3.0%3.0%1.0%
Exhibit 9Exhibit 9:Order Channel Migration Over TimePercentage
of Orders by Channel:Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year
5Phone60%60%57%55%52%48%Fax /
Mail40%35%33%30%33%32%Web0%5%10%15%15%20%Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
Exhibit 10Exhibit 10:Implementation CostsFull Time Equivalent
(FTE) Percentage Per MonthRate/HrMonth 1Month 2Month 3Month
4Project manager$20025%75%75%50%Marketing
strategist$30075%20%5%5%Graphic designer$15015%75%25%10%Information
architect$20050%75%25%7%Software developer$15010%50%50%50%Software
engineer$15010%50%50%50%Technical
architect$17510%100%25%5%TotalProject
manager8,00024,00024,00016,00072,000Marketing
strategist36,0009,6002,4002,40050,400Graphic
designer3,60018,0006,0002,40030,000Information
architect16,00024,0008,0002,24050,240Software
developer2,40012,00012,00012,00038,400Software
engineer2,40012,00012,00012,00038,400Technical
architect2,80028,0007,0001,40039,200Total consulting
costs$71,200$127,600$71,400$48,440$318,640Outside
specialistsRate/Hr# of Hours$20040$8,000Web hosting integration
costsCost/YrPercentage(as a percentage of first-year hosting
costs)$120,00050%$60,000Grand total$386,640
Exhibit 13Exhibit 13:Annual Support CostsMonthly# of MonthsWeb
hosting$10,00012$120,000Direct marketing costs$100,000Consulting
costsRate / Hr# of HoursCampaign strategist$30030$9,000Project
manager$20060$12,000Other consulting$175240$42,000Total$283,000
Exhibit 14AExhibit 14AB&K DistributorsROI ModelSummary
PageVariablesYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5(Cifras en
Miles)12345Penetracin50%60%65%68%70%70%Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year
4Year 5IngresosMigracin ClienteYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year
5Proyeccin3,4004,6435,6196,4877,2937,886A
Tier25%28%30%32%33%33%Lnea base3,4003,6083,8284,0624,3104,574B
Tier55%58%60%60%60%60%Incremento0.01,0351,7912,4252,9833,312C
Tier20%14%10%8%7%7%Valor Actual del incremento
$9241,4281,7261,8961,879=7,853,087.07100%100%100%100%100%100%Ingresos/Utilidad
NetosMejora en el tamao de los
pedidos6%Proyeccin4115837348781,0031,121Lnea
base411436463491521553Migracin canal de ventasYear 0Year 1Year
2Year 3Year 4Year
5Incremento0.0147272387482568Phone60%60%57%55%52%48%Valor Actual
del incremento $131216275306322=1,252,011.33Fax /
Mail40%35%33%30%33%32%Web0%5%10%15%15%20%Programa de inversin
incremental (despus de
impuestos)Total100%100%100%100%100%100%Costos iniciales(387)Costo
de
operacin/soporte(283)(291)(300)(309)(319)Total(387)(283)(291)(300)(309)(319)Total
(despues de impuesto)(240)(175)(181)(186)(192)(197)Incremento del
Flujo de caja(240)(28)91201290371TIR (tasa interna de
retorno)40.61%VAN ao 1VAN ao 2VAN ao 3VAN ao 4VAN ao 5Valor Actual
Neto345(265)(193)(50)135345A partir del ao 4, el VAN es positivo,
por lo tanto lo apropiado para el proyecto es que se evalue a
partir de este periodo en adelante, es decir, se puede asumir que
mientras mas largo el horizonte de evaluacion mayores
ganancias.COK12%Tasa de Impuesto38%Tasa de inflacin de los costos
de soporte3%
&R&"Arial,Bold Italic"&8Kellogg School of
Management
Exhibit 14BExhibit 14BB&K DistributorsROI ModelUpside
Projection(Numbers in thousands)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year
5Nmero de
sucursales3,4003,4683,5373,6083,6803,754Incremento2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Porcentaje
de penetracin50.0%60.0%65.0%68.0%70.0%70.0%Nmero de
clientes1,7002,0812,2992,4542,5762,628Estructura de los
NivelesPorcentaje25%28%30%32%33%33%A# de
sucursales425583690785850867Nmero de
pedidos121212121212Porcentaje55%58%60%60%60%60%B# de
sucursales9351,2071,3801,4721,5461,577Nmero de
pedidos888888Porcentaje20%14%10%8%7%7%C# de
sucursales340291230196180184Nmero de pedidos333333Tamao promedio
por
pedido$250.00$265.00$280.90$297.75$315.62$334.56Incremento6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%Total
de pedidosnivel A5,1006,9918,2779,42110,20210,406nivel
B7,4809,65511,03711,77712,36612,613nivel
C1,020874690589541552Total13,60017,52020,00421,78723,10823,571Ingresos
$nivel A1,2751,8532,3252,8053,2203,481nivel
B1,8702,5593,1003,5073,9034,220nivel C255232194175171185Total
$3,4004,6435,6196,4877,2937,886Margen por unidadCOGS
%68.70%68.70%68.70%68.70%68.70%68.70%Ingreso bruto por
pedido78.2582.9587.9293.2098.79104.72Costo de procesamiento por
pedido29.5029.2528.7128.1928.7727.99Ingreso Neto por
pedido495459657077Account
contributionOperaciones13,60017,52020,00421,78723,10823,571Ingreso
Neto por pedido495459657077Utilidad
Neta6639411,1841,4161,6181,808ImpuestoTasa38%38%38%38%38%38%Impuesto252357450538615687Utilidad
Neta despues de impuesto4115837348781,0031,121
&R&"Arial,Bold Italic"&8Kellogg School of
Management
Exhibit 14CExhibit 14CB&K DistributorsROI ModelBase Case
Projection(Numbers in thousands)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year
5Number of franchise
locations3,4003,4683,5373,6083,6803,754Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Penetration50.0%50.5%51.0%51.5%52.0%52.6%Number
of customers1,7001,7511,8041,8591,9151,973Tier
structurePercent25%25%25%25%25%25%A# of
locations425438451465479493Order
frequency121212121212Percent55%55%55%55%55%55%B# of
locations9359639921,0221,0531,085Order
frequency888888Percent20%20%20%20%20%20%C# of
locations340350361372383395Order frequency333333Average order
size$250.00$257.50$265.23$273.18$281.38$289.82Growth3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Total
transactionsA accounts5,1005,2545,4135,5765,7455,918B
accounts7,4807,7067,9398,1788,4258,680C
accounts1,0201,0511,0831,1151,1491,184Total13,60014,01114,43414,87015,31915,781RevenueA
accounts1,2751,3531,4361,5231,6161,715B
accounts1,8701,9842,1062,2342,3712,516C
accounts255271287305323343Total3,4003,6083,8284,0624,3104,574Unit
marginCOGS %68.70%68.70%68.70%68.70%68.70%68.70%Gross margin per
order78.2580.6083.0285.5188.0790.71Processing cost per
order29.5030.3931.3032.2433.2034.20Net contribution per
order495052535557Account
contributionTransactions13,60014,01114,43414,87015,31915,781Net
margin per order495052535557Operating
income663704747792841892TaxTax
rate38%38%38%38%38%38%Tax252267284301319339Net contribution after
tax411436463491521553
&R&"Arial,Bold Italic"&8Kellogg School of
Management
Exhibit 14DExhibit 14DB&K DistributorsROI ModelAverage
Transaction Cost Matrix12345Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year
5Percentage of orders by
channel:Phone60%60%57%55%52%48%Fax/mail40%35%33%30%33%32%Web0%5%10%15%15%20%Total100%100%100%100%100%100%Cost
per
order:Phone$32.50$33.48$34.48$35.51$36.58$37.68Fax/mail$25.00$25.75$26.52$27.32$28.14$28.98Web$3.00$3.03$3.06$3.09$3.12$3.15Weighted
average cost$29.50$29.25$28.71$28.19$28.77$27.99WAC without
Web$29.50$30.39$31.30$32.24$33.20$34.20Difference0.0$1.14$2.58$4.04$4.43$6.21Inflation
increases:Phone3.00%Fax/mail3.00%Web1.00%
&R&"Arial,Bold Italic"&8Kellogg School of
Management
ANALISIS TIRResumen del escenarioValores
actuales:ESPERADOPESIMISTAOPTIMISTACreado por Carlos Javier Lopez
Carrera el 10/07/2015Modificado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Creado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Modificado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Creado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Celdas
cambiantes:pen_150%50%50%50%pen_260%60%55%60%pen_365%65%55%70%pen_468%68%60%75%pen_570%70%60%78%pen_670%70%65%80%migra_a_025%25%25%25%migra_a128%28%28%28%migra_a230%30%30%30%migra_a332%32%32%32%migra_a433%33%33%33%migra_a533%33%33%33%tam_pedido6%6%4%6%web00%0%0%0%web15%5%5%5%web210%10%10%10%web315%15%15%15%web415%15%15%15%web520%20%20%20%migra_b_055%55%55%55%migra_b158%58%58%58%migra_b260%60%60%60%migra_b360%60%60%60%migra_b460%60%60%60%migra_b560%60%60%60%phone060%60%60%60%phone160%60%60%60%phone257%57%57%57%phone355%55%55%55%phone452%52%52%52%phone548%48%48%48%Celdas
de resultado:TIR40.61%40.61%-10.07%56.92%Notas: La columna de
valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantesen
el momento en que se cre el Informe resumen de escenario. Las
celdas cambiantes decada escenario se muestran en gris.
ANALSIS TIR2Resumen del escenarioValores
actuales:ESPERADOPESIMISTAOPTIMISTACreado por Carlos Javier Lopez
Carrera el 10/07/2015Modificado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Creado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Modificado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Creado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Celdas
cambiantes:pen_150%50%50%50%pen_260%60%55%60%pen_365%65%55%70%pen_468%68%60%75%pen_570%70%60%78%pen_670%70%65%80%migra_a_025%25%25%25%migra_a128%28%28%28%migra_a230%30%30%30%migra_a332%32%32%32%migra_a433%33%33%33%migra_a533%33%33%33%tam_pedido6%6%6%6%web00%0%0%0%web15%5%5%5%web210%10%10%10%web315%15%15%15%web415%15%15%15%web520%20%20%20%migra_b_055%55%55%55%migra_b158%58%58%58%migra_b260%60%60%60%migra_b360%60%60%60%migra_b460%60%60%60%migra_b560%60%60%60%phone060%60%60%60%phone160%60%60%60%phone257%57%57%57%phone355%55%55%55%phone452%52%52%52%phone548%48%48%48%Celdas
de resultado:$E$2740.61%40.61%12.14%56.92%Notas: La columna de
valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantesen
el momento en que se cre el Informe resumen de escenario. Las
celdas cambiantes decada escenario se muestran en gris.
ANALISIS VANResumen del escenarioValores
actuales:ESPERADOPESIMISTAOPTIMISTACreado por Carlos Javier Lopez
Carrera el 10/07/2015Modificado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Creado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Modificado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Creado por Carlos Javier Lopez Carrera el
10/07/2015Celdas
cambiantes:pen_150%50%50%50%pen_260%60%55%60%pen_365%65%55%70%pen_468%68%60%75%pen_570%70%60%78%pen_670%70%65%80%migra_a_025%25%25%25%migra_a128%28%28%28%migra_a230%30%30%30%migra_a332%32%32%32%migra_a433%33%33%33%migra_a533%33%33%33%tam_pedido6%6%4%6%web00%0%0%0%web15%5%5%5%web210%10%10%10%web315%15%15%15%web415%15%15%15%web520%20%20%20%migra_b_055%55%55%55%migra_b158%58%58%58%migra_b260%60%60%60%migra_b360%60%60%60%migra_b460%60%60%60%migra_b560%60%60%60%phone060%60%60%60%phone160%60%60%60%phone257%57%57%57%phone355%55%55%55%phone452%52%52%52%phone548%48%48%48%Celdas
de resultado:VAN345345(213)618Notas: La columna de valores actuales
representa los valores de las celdas cambiantesen el momento en que
se cre el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes
decada escenario se muestran en gris.
no...012345Costos por procesamientoAo 0Ao 1Ao 2Ao 3Ao 4Ao
5Proyeccincosto por pedido $29.5029.2528.7128.1928.7727.99numero de
pedidos13,60017,52020,00421,78723,10823,571Costo
total401,200512,452574,341614,216664,940659,728Linea basecosto por
pedido $29.5030.3931.3032.2433.2034.20numero de
pedidos13,60014,01114,43414,87015,31915,781Costo
total401,200425,716451,730479,333508,623539,703Diferencia086,737122,611134,883156,317120,025Valor
actual de la diferencia77,443122,611134,883156,317120,025Ahorro al
da de hoy $611,280
