Blueprint for Program Planning Blueprint · 2006. 11. 7. · future college enrollment. These youngest groups are also evolving the fastest. By 2015, close to half of all five-to

Palm Beach Community College has been a leader in education in Palm Beach County since 1933, continuously serving the community's needs for post-secondary and career education. In order to maintain excellence and innovation, the College regularly monitors the surrounding environment and adjusts programs and processes accordingly. To this end, the Office of Institutional Research and Effectiveness of Palm Beach Community College conducted a program needs assessment, with an emphasis on identifying potential program offerings and tracking projected demand for current programs. The Office compiled data from numerous sources and developed planning tools using standard methodology to form the basis of proposed strategies. This report, Blueprint for Program Planning, is designed to provide current data and useful information to assist the College in its decision-making processes. It examines local environmental factors, such as demographics, economics, social changes, legislative issues and educational status. The Blueprint also describes enrollment and educational trends at PBCC, researches student market forecasts, and details occupational projections. The planning section includes a SWOT analysis and offers strategies that PBCC might pursue in response to the projected environmental changes in Palm Beach County. The Office of Institutional Research and Effectiveness will continue to support the College's initiative by researching and analyzing the environment at regular intervals and updating the Blueprint accordingly. Our mission is to systematically provide a foundation of information upon which the College can draw to sustain its role as a community leader. Sincerely, Jennifer D. Campbell, Ph.D. Director, Office of Institutional Research and Effectiveness

i

Table of Contents Table of Contents........................................................................................................................... i

Table of Figures and Tables ........................................................................................................ iii

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... v

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................1

Background Information................................................................................................................2

Palm Beach County Profile........................................................................................................3

Population ..............................................................................................................................3

Age .........................................................................................................................................3

Gender ...................................................................................................................................5

Ethnicity..................................................................................................................................5

Migration/Immigration.............................................................................................................6

Economics..............................................................................................................................6

Education ...............................................................................................................................7

Palm Beach Community College Profile..................................................................................10

Student Body Demographics................................................................................................10

Enrollment ............................................................................................................................11

Degrees/Certificates Awarded..............................................................................................14

Student Market Profile .............................................................................................................15

Credit-Seeking Transfer Students ........................................................................................15

Career Education Students ..................................................................................................17

Competition..............................................................................................................................19

Degree-Granting Institutions ................................................................................................19

Career Education Schools....................................................................................................19

Employment Outlook ...............................................................................................................20

Industry Projections..............................................................................................................20

National .............................................................................................................................20

Florida ...............................................................................................................................20

Palm Beach County ..........................................................................................................21

Occupations Projections.......................................................................................................21

National and State.............................................................................................................21

Palm Beach County ..........................................................................................................22

Health Care .......................................................................................................................22

Business and Management...............................................................................................24

ii

Child Care and Human Services.......................................................................................25

Computer ..........................................................................................................................25

Trade and Industrial ..........................................................................................................25

Public Safety .....................................................................................................................27

Creative Arts and Communication ....................................................................................27

Landscape and Horticulture ..............................................................................................28

Education ..........................................................................................................................28

Planning Tools ............................................................................................................................29

Environmental Scan.................................................................................................................30

Demographic Trends and Forecasts ....................................................................................30

Economic Trends and Forecasts..........................................................................................30

Social and Educational Trends and Forecasts .....................................................................32

Technological Trends and Forecasts ...................................................................................32

Public Policy Trends and Forecasts .....................................................................................33

Competitive Trends and Forecasts.......................................................................................33

SWOT Analysis........................................................................................................................34

Planning Assumptions .............................................................................................................37

Strategies.................................................................................................................................39

Program Opportunities.............................................................................................................45

Health Care ..........................................................................................................................45

Business and Management..................................................................................................45

Child Care and Human Services ..........................................................................................45

Computer..............................................................................................................................45

Trade and Industrial .............................................................................................................46

Education .............................................................................................................................46

References..................................................................................................................................47

Appendix .....................................................................................................................................49

iii

Table of Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Historic and Forecast Population Growth for Palm Beach County, Southeast Florida, and the United States 1970–2030 ............................................................... 3

Figure 2: Age Distribution in Palm Beach County 2000 and Projected 2030........................... 4

Figure 3: Forecast Growth among Age Groups in Palm Beach County and Florida 2000–2030................................................................................................................ 4

Figure 4: Ethnicity in Palm Beach County 2000 and Forecast 2030........................................ 5

Figure 5: Poverty Rates in Palm Beach County, Florida, and the United States 1993–2002................................................................................................................ 6

Figure 6: Unemployment Rate Trends – Palm Beach County, Florida and the United States ............................................................................................... 7

Figure 7: Educational Attainment in Palm Beach County 2004 ............................................... 8

Figure 8: Forecast Education Requirements for New Jobs in 2012 in Palm Beach County .............................................................................................. 8

Figure 9: Palm Beach County High School Graduates Receiving Standard Diplomas Actual and Projected, 1995-1996 through 2010-2011 .............................................. 9

Figure 10: Palm Beach Community College Student Ages – Fall Term 2005 ......................... 10

Figure 11: PBCC Student Body Ethnicity – Fall Term 2003 and Fall Term 2005 .................... 11

Figure 12: PBCC Unduplicated District Headcount 2001–2006............................................... 12

Figure 13: Florida Community College System Unduplicated Headcount 2001–2005 ............ 12

Figure 14: PBCC Enrollment Growth and Palm Beach County Job Growth ............................ 13

Figure 15 Projected Ethnic Changes among Credit-Seeking Transfer Student Age Groups in Palm Beach County 2005–2015 .............................................................................. 16

Figure 16: Ethnicity among 5-to 24-Year-Olds in Palm Beach County 2005 and 2015 ........... 16

Figure 17: Growth among 18-to 49-Year-Olds in Palm Beach County 2005–2015.............................................................................................................. 17

Figure 18: Ethnic Composition of 18-to 49-Year-Olds in Palm Beach County 2005–2015.............................................................................................................. 18

Figure 19: Ethnic Composition of Over-65-Year-Olds in Palm Beach County 2005–2015.............................................................................................................. 18

iv

Table 1: PBCC Total FTE by Term, 2003-2006..................................................................... 14

Table 2: PBCC Credit/Prep FTE by Term, 2003-2006........................................................... 14

Table 3: PBCC Non-Credit FTE by Term, 2003-2006 ........................................................... 14

Table 4: PBCC Degrees and Certificates Awarded 2004–2005 ............................................ 14

Table 5: Degree-Granting Institutions in Palm Beach County ............................................... 19

Table 6: Projected Job Growth by Industry for Palm Beach County 2005–2013................... 21

Table 7: Hot Jobs for Community College Graduates in Florida............................................ 22

Table 8: Projected Annual Job Openings in Health Care in Palm Beach County through 2013............................................................................................................ 23

Table 9: Projected Annual Job Openings in Business and Management in Palm Beach County through 2013 ............................................................................................... 24

Table 10: Projected Annual Job Openings in Child Care and Human Services in Palm Beach County through 2013........................................................................... 25

Table 11: Projected Annual Job Openings in Computers in Palm Beach County through 2013............................................................................................................ 25

Table 12: Projected Annual Job Openings in Trade and Industrial in Palm Beach County through 2013 ............................................................................................... 26

Table 13: Projected Annual Job Openings in Public Safety in Palm Beach County through 2013............................................................................................................ 27

Table 14: Projected Annual Job Openings in Creative Arts and Communication in Palm Beach County through 2013........................................................................... 27

Table 15: Projected Annual Job Openings in Landscape and Horticulture in Palm Beach County through 2013........................................................................... 28

Table 16: Projected Annual Job Openings in Education in Palm Beach County through 2013............................................................................................................ 28

Table 17: Projected Annual Openings through 2013 for Occupations for which PBCC Offers Training ......................................................................................................... 51

Table 18: Projected Annual Openings through 2013 for Occupations for which PBCC Does Not Offer Training ........................................................................................... 53

v

Executive Summary

Palm Beach County will continue to grow and evolve over the next 25 years, adding more people and becoming more racially and culturally diverse. More seniors will retire to the area and comprise an even larger portion of the population than now. Immigrants will continue to make Palm Beach County home, increasing the ranks of young children and further diversifying the county and the school system. By 2030, one out of every five residents is expected to claim Hispanic origin. This trend will be most pronounced in the youngest age groups, those which will produce the greatest impact on future college enrollment. These youngest groups are also evolving the fastest. By 2015, close to half of all five-to nine-year-olds in the county will be Hispanic. While growth of the Hispanic segment decreases as age increases, the rates will still be significant: 57.4 percent among 10-to 14-year-olds, 47.8 percent among 15-to 19-year-olds, and 30.8 percent among 20-to 24-year-olds. Growth among non-Hispanic blacks and all other races will also far outpace the growth among the non-Hispanic white segment. Economically, Palm Beach County will remain dichotomous, holding the distinction of being one of the wealthiest counties in Florida as well as one with a significant number or people living below the poverty level. Over the past decade, the economic structure of the county gradually shifted from manufacturing and retail to professional and business services. Demand for services, especially health care, will be fueled by a growing population and large numbers of Baby Boomers retiring to the area. New industries, such as biotechnology, coupled with a diminishing dependence on seasonal employment will create a more stable and stronger job market, increasing the number of higher paying jobs. Forecasters predict that 60 percent of all jobs in the county will require at least some post-high school education by 2012. The Florida Department of Education predicts the number of Palm Beach County high school graduates receiving standard diplomas will increase dramatically over the next five years and should remain high as the number of children in the county grows. Competition for these students from the post-secondary education private sector will also grow accordingly. Readily available employment in a strong job market may entice many to forgo higher education for immediate earnings. Palm Beach Community College (PBCC) must adapt to the changing environment and develop innovative academic and marketing strategies designed to prevent these factors from eroding student enrollment. Overall, community colleges throughout Florida experienced a significant decline in enrollment between the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 reporting years, a trend that appears directly related to strong job growth in the state. Enrollment at PBCC fell by 2.6 percent during that period and by 4.5 percent the following year. Consequently, the student body at PBCC has become younger as prospective career education students, traditionally somewhat older than credit-seeking transfer students, have chosen employment in lieu of education and training. The student body has also become more diverse, following a county-wide trend that is predicted to continue over the next two decades.

vi

Job growth in Palm Beach County will continue to expand for at least the next seven years. Registered nurses will top the help-wanted postings both nationally and locally, with close to 700 annual openings expected in Palm Beach County. Other fast-growing occupations for which training is provided at the community college level include licensed practical nurses, nursing aides, home health aides, general office workers, customer service representatives, sales representatives, real estate and insurance sales persons, child care workers, computer support specialists, auto mechanics, and skilled construction workers. Projections also forecast strong local demand for clinical laboratory technicians, pharmacy technicians, physical therapy assistants, physician assistants, real estate and community association managers, electrical engineer technicians, civil engineer technicians, recreation workers, fitness/aerobic trainers, and photographers. The need for teachers will remain high as the Palm Beach County School District is expected to hire over 750 new teachers annually. The Appendix contains tables of occupations and estimated annual job openings for those jobs for which PBCC currently offers training and for those for which PBCC currently does not offer programs. PBCC will face both challenges and opportunities as the county grows over the next 20 years. PBCC can develop program strategies to meet the challenges of a more diverse community, reverse a trend of declining enrollment, assist a large number of students entering the College unprepared for college-level work, and thrive despite persistently low levels of state funding for college education. The College can also capitalize on projected growth in occupations requiring a community college education, population growth that will increase the pool of potential students, potential relationships with new businesses entering Palm Beach County, and emerging technology that will not only improve the quality of education, but expand the possibilities of innovative systems of delivery.

1

Introduction Community colleges must continually monitor the dynamic environments in which they exist. Demographic, economic, social, political, and technological influences constantly impact communities’ needs and alter demand for programs and services. The successful institution stays abreast and modifies its offerings accordingly. This report examines the environmental factors most likely to affect the College and describes trends and projections for Palm Beach County, the student markets, and the College. The analysis also includes local industry and occupation projections. Future challenges and opportunities facing the College are identified and suggested strategies noted. The report is divided into two main sections that contain the following: Background Information

Palm Beach County Overview

Palm Beach County Community College Information

Student Market Profile

Employment Outlook

Planning Tools

Environmental Scan

S.W. O. T. Analysis

Planning Assumptions

Strategies

Program Opportunities

2

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Palm Beach County Profile

Population Since 1970, Palm Beach County has experienced population growth far exceeding that of the state and the nation. The county is recognized as one of the fastest growing in the country, a trend that is expected to continue through 2030, when the county is projected to house just over 1.9 million people, a 50.8 percent increase from 2005 estimates (EDRI, 2006). Figure 1: Historic and Forecast Population Growth for Palm Beach County, Florida, and the United States 1970-2030

3

Source: Economic Development Research Institute, 2006. The Palm Beach County Navigator.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

United States Florida Palm Beach County

Population Grow th Index, 1970 = 1

Most of Palm Beach County's population growth (two-thirds) between 2000 and 2004 was due to net domestic migration as compared to natural increase (the difference between births and deaths), which accounted for only 2.2 percent (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). Age Palm Beach County has been a popular destination for retirees, a trend expected to continue through 2030 when the 65+ age group is projected to have grown by 123.7 percent and comprise an even larger proportion of the population than in 2000 (BEBR, 2005).

Figure 2: Age Distribution in Palm Beach County 2000 and Projected 2030

Palm Beach County 2000

18-64 yrs55.6%

65+ yrs23.2%

0-17 yrs21.2%


18-64 yrs50.6%

0-17 yrs18.8%

65+ yrs30.6%

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, 2005 Growth through 2030 in Palm Beach County among the younger age groups is expected to be significant as well (Figure 3), with projections for the 0-to 17-year-old group increasing by 49.9 percent and the 18-64 age group by 54.2 percent. Statewide, seniors 65 and older are expected to increase by 142.0 percent, children under 18 by 40.5 percent, and adults aged 18-64 by 46.8 percent (BEBR, 2005). Figure 3: Forecast Growth among Age Groups in Palm Beach County and Florida 2000-2030

49.9%

54.2%

123.7%

40.5%

46.8%

142.0%

0% 40% 80% 120% 160%

0-17 Years

18-64 Years

65+ Years

Palm Beach County Florida

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, 2005

4

Gender Countywide, females (51.7%) comprised a larger share of the population than males (48.3%) in 2000. This proportion is projected to remain stable through 2030. Females outnumber males significantly in the 65 and over age groups: 56.4 percent to 43.6 percent in 2000 and 55.2 percent to 44.7 percent expected in 2030. Within the younger age groups, gender is more evenly divided. Among those under age 18, females accounted for 48.6 percent of the population and males represented 51.4 percent in 2000. By 2030 the proportions are expected to be 49.1 percent female and 50.9 percent male. The 18-64 age cohort is more evenly divided: 50.9 percent female and 49.1 percent male in 2000 and 50.5 percent female and 49.5 percent male expected in 2030 (BEBR, 2005). Ethnicity Palm Beach County is expected to become more diversified by 2030, with a significant decline in the proportion of white non-Hispanic persons and a significant increase in the percentage of Hispanic residents, as shown in Figure 4 (BEBR, 2005). Figure 4: Ethnicity in Palm Beach County 2000 and Forecast 2030

5

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, 2005


White71.3%

Other1.9%

Black12.4%

Hispanic14.4%


White58.6%

Other2.9%

Black17.1%

Hispanic21.4%

While the white non-Hispanic cohort is expected to grow in numbers by 39.1 percent between 2000 and 2030, increases in the other ethnic groups are more dramatic: 101.4 percent among black non-Hispanics, 191.7 percent among Hispanics, and 154.1 percent among all other races. The result will produce an overall decline of 12.7 percent in the white non-Hispanic proportion of the county and increases of 7.0 percent and 4.7 percent among Hispanics and blacks, respectively.

Migration/Immigration Net domestic migration accounted for the largest portion (two-thirds) of Palm Beach County’s population growth between 2000 and 2004. In 2004, the Census Bureau estimated that seven percent of current residents over the age of one year (86,119) had lived in a different county one year prior (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). According to the U.S. Department of Justice (1999), Florida is the third largest immigrant-receiving state in the nation. The U.S. Census Bureau (2005) projects that Florida will gain 1.9 million additional immigrants between 1995 and 2025. Palm Beach County, which accounts for approximately four percent of Florida’s total immigration, can expect to see a sizable share of this influx, which is the second largest component of population change in the county. (BEBR, 2005). Between 1990 and 2000, the Palm Beach County’s foreign-born population increased by 87.6 percent and comprised 17.4 percent its total population in 2000. Between 2000 and 2003 immigration was responsible for more than one-quarter (28.7%) of the county area’s population increase (EDRI, 2006). In 2004, the Census Bureau (2004) estimated that one in five (19.9%) of the county’s total population was foreign-born, with more than two out of three having come from Latin America. Nearly one in four persons over the age of five (24.2%) spoke a language other than English at home, up from 21.7 percent in 2000. Nationally, 18.7 percent of people over age five spoke a foreign language at home in 2004, as did 24.3 percent in Florida. Economics Palm Beach County was the wealthiest county in Florida in 2003, with a per capita income of $44,050 and 3.8 percent of all households reporting annual income in excess of $200,000. Conversely, 10.3 percent of the total population was living below the poverty level in 2004, with 27.4 percent of all households earning less than $25,000 per year. After several years of decline, poverty rates in Palm Beach County, Florida, and the nation, as depicted in Figure 5, have been slowly rising since 2001 (EDRI, 2006). Figure 5: Poverty Rates in Palm Beach County, Florida and the United States 1993–2002

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Palm Beach County United States Florida

Source: Economic Development and Research Institute. The Palm Beach County Navigator. 2006.

6

Since 1990, Palm Beach County has added 160,000 jobs and continues to add 20,000 new jobs annually (EDRI, 2006). Palm Beach County's unemployment rate dropped to 2.8 percent in April 2006, a trend which began in 2002, and was only .6 percent higher than the lowest rates posted by metropolitan areas (Florida Agency For Workforce Innovation, 2006). Figure 6: Unemployment Rate Trends For Palm Beach County, Florida and the United States

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Per

cent

Palm Beach County Florida United States

Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, 2006 Professional and business services, education and health services, and construction led jobs growth in Palm Beach County between 1994 and 2004, and are forecast to continue leading growth in the county through 2015 (EDRI, 2006). Although most available jobs are still found in the lower paying service industries, higher-paying industry clusters have been strengthening due to population growth and a diminishing dependence on seasonal employment. Education According to the Census Bureau’s 2004 American Community Survey, close to six in ten (58%) residents of Palm Beach County over the age of 25 had completed at least some college. Figure 7 illustrates that more than one in four (28.4%) had completed high school, and only 13.5 percent had less than a high school education. A total of 86.4 percent of persons over age 25 in Palm Beach County had completed a minimum of high school, as compared to 84.5 percent in Florida, and 83.9 percent in the United States (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004).

Between 2000 and 2004, the percent of persons over 25 in Palm Beach County holding an associate's degree rose from 6.2 percent to 7.2 percent. Nationally, in 2004, 7.1 percent of the over 25 year age group held that degree, while in Florida the overall rate was 7.9 percent (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004).

7

Figure 7: Educational Attainment in Palm Beach County 2004

High School28.4%

Some College19.8%

Associate Degree7.2%

Bachelor's Degree8%

Graduate or Professional Degree

12.2%Less Than High

School13.5%

18.

Source: US Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2004 Going forward, there will be an even greater need for better educated workers. As shown in Figure 8, by 2012 forecasters predict that 60.3 percent of jobs in Palm Beach County will require post-high school education (FRED, 2004). Figure 8: Forecast Education Requirements for New Jobs in 2012 in Palm Beach County

Less Than High School19.6%

Post-Secondary Degree or Certificate

33.2%

High School20.1%

College or Higher27.1%

Source: Florida Research and Economic Database, 2004

8

Figure 9 illustrates how, between the 1995-1996 and 2005-2006 school years, the number of students receiving standard high school diplomas in Palm Beach County has steadily grown. The Florida Department of Education (2006) predicts an even more significant increase in those numbers through the 2010-2011 school years. Figure 9: Palm Beach County High School Graduates Receiving Standard Diplomas, Actual and Projected From 1995-1996 through 2010-2011

5.4 5.4 5.76.2 6.4

6.87.4

8.1 8.1 8.2 8.4

10.1

12.2

11.2

10.2 9.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11

Thou

sand

s

Source: Florida Department of Education, 2006. Projected High School Graduates 2005-06 to 2020-01.

9

Palm Beach Community College Profile

As Palm Beach County becomes more diverse, PBCC can expect to see similar changes among its student body. Additionally, as job growth in the county continues, the College will be challenged to devise creative enticements to attract students who might otherwise opt to accept employment in lieu of furthering their education. Student Body Demographics Palm Beach Community College’s student body has remained consistently female over the last three years, with the average proportion being 56.6 percent female and 43.4 percent male (PBCC, 2006). Statewide, females comprise approximately 61.0 percent of all community college students, a trend that is expected to continue (FDOE, 2006). Typical age proportions for PBCC are shown in Figure 10. At the beginning of Fall Term 2005, more than half (52.9%) of the student body was between the age of 18 and 24. The average student age was 27.2 and the median age was 23.0. Non-credit students tended to be somewhat older; nearly four out of five (79.1%) were 25 years or older. The average age of non-credit students was 36.1 and the median age was 36.0 (PBCC, 2006).

Figure 10: Palm Beach Community College Student Ages – Fall Term 2005

18-24 years52.9%

25-34 years20.0%

under 18 years5.1%

35-49 years16.5%

50+ years5.2%

Unknown0.2%

Source: PBCC Student Download, 2006

10

Overall, the student population has become younger since the beginning of Fall Term 2003, when only 47.0 percent of all students were between the ages of 18 and 24. Students over the age of 30 comprised 35.4 percent of the student body as compared to 29.7 percent in 2005 (PBCC, 2006). The College is also becoming more diverse. At the beginning of Fall Term 2005, as shown in the comparison graphs in Figure 11, white non-Hispanic students accounted for 55.7 percent of the student population, as compared with 58.1 percent at the beginning of Fall Term 2003. The proportion of Hispanic students increased from 14.4 percent to 15.9 percent over the same period. Black student ratios remained fairly constant at 21.6 percent in 2003 and 21.9 percent in 2005. Other races accounted for 3.1 percent of all students in 2003 and 3.2 percent in 2005 (PBCC, 2006). This shift toward a more diverse student body is expected to continue as the overall population of Palm Beach County becomes more diverse over the next 25 years. Figure 11: PBCC Student Body Ethnicity – Fall Term 2003 and Fall Term 2005

Fall Term 2005

White55.7%

Hispanic15.9%

Black21.9%

Other3.2%

Not Reported

3.3%

Fall Term 2003

White58.1%

Other3.1%Not

Reported2.8%

Black21.6%

Hispanic14.4%

Source: PBCC Student Download, 2006 Enrollment Unduplicated headcount at PBCC increased between 2000 and 2003, peaked during the 2003-2004 reporting year, and has been declining since that time (Figure 12). Enrollment during the 2004-2005 reporting year was 2.6 percent lower than the previous year, and enrollment during the 2005-2006 reporting year was 4.5 percent lower than the 2004-2005 reporting year (PBCC, 2006).

11

Figure 12: PBCC Unduplicated District Headcount 2001-2006

834,570

887,835880,064

907,878

878,184

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

920

2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005

hous

ands

T

46,157

48,206

49,492

47,926

46,981

42,734

38

40

42

44

46

48hous

50

2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006

Tan

ds

Source: PBCC Student Download, 2006

The Florida Community College System experienced a similar trend, with enrollment increasing from 2000 through 2003 and then decreasing by 3.3 percent during the 2004-2005 reporting year (Figure 13). Data for the reporting year 2005-2006 are not yet available for the state (FDOE, 2006). Figure 13: Florida Community College System Unduplicated Headcount 2001-2005

Source: Florida Department of Education, The Fact Book 2006

12

Community college enrollment trends appear to share an indirect relationship with local employment growth. Figure 14 depicts job growth trends in Palm Beach County and enrollment trends at PBCC from 2001 to 2006. As the number of available jobs in Palm Beach County grew, enrollment decreased, suggesting potential students opt to enter the workforce rather than further their education when job growth is strong.

Figure 14: PBCC Enrollment Growth and Palm Beach County Job Growth

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006

enrollment job growth

Source: PBCC Student Download, 2006 Florida’s Agency For Workforce Innovation, 2006 Florida’s Agency for Workforce Innovation predicts an average annual growth rate of 2.3 percent for Palm Beach County jobs through 2013 (FRED, 2006). The proportion of credit/preparatory vs. non-credit only students has also shifted over the past three years. The non-credit only student proportion has decreased from 29.2 percent during Fall 2003 to 23.5 percent during Fall 2005 (PBCC, 2006). This finding coincides with the decline of older students, suggesting that the current thriving labor market has attracted some of the older non-credit career students. As shown in Table 1, total FTE for the College remained relatively stable until Spring Term 2006, when FTE dropped by 4.5 percent from Spring Term 2005, decreasing the total FTE count for the 2005-2006 year by 2.7 percent from the 2004-2005 academic year. While FTE for credit/preparatory students (Table 2) fluctuated only slightly between 2003 and 2006, the FTE count for non-credit students (Table 3) dropped by 12.2 percent over the same time period (PBCC, 2006).

13

Table 1: PBCC Total FTE by Term, 2003-2006

Term 2003-2004

2004-2005

Percent Change

2005-2006

Percent Change

Summer 2,957 3,001 1.5% 3,000 0.0%Fall 6,616 6,757 2.1% 6,610 -2.2%Spring 6,440 6,449 0.1% 6,159 -4.5%

Total 16,013 16,207 1.2% 15,769 -2.7%

Source: PBCC Student Download, 2006 Table 2: PBCC Credit/Preparatory FTE by Term, 2003-2006

Term 2003-2004

2004-2005

Percent Change

2005-2006

Percent Change

Summer 2,263 2,321 2.6% 2,318 -0.1%Fall 5,638 5,746 1.9% 5,794 .8%Spring 5,409 5,426 0.3% 5,275 -2.8%

Total 13,310 13,493 1.4% 13,387 -.8%

Source: PBCC Student Download, 2006 Table 3: PBCC Non-Credit FTE by Term, 2003-2006

Term 2003-2004

2004-2005

Percent Change

2005-2006

Percent Change

Summer 694 681 -1.87% 683 0.3%Fall 978 1,011 3.37% 816 -19.3%Spring 1,031 1,022 -0.87% 884 -13.5%

Total 2,703 2,714 0.41% 2,383 -12.2%

Source: PBCC Student Download, 2006 Degrees/Certificates Awarded As of July 6, 2006, PBCC had awarded 3,460 degrees or certificates for the 2005-2006 reporting year. The total number of awards for 2005-2006 represents a 16.2 percent decrease from the level of awards made in 2004-2005. The largest variance exists in the Vocational Certificate (PSAV) category, which decreased by 507 (35.0%) awards (PBCC, 2006). Table 4: PBCC Degrees and Certificates Awarded 2004-2005 and 2005-2006

Award

2004-2005

2005-2006*

Number Difference

Percent Difference

Associate in Arts (AA) 1,794 1,667 (127) -7.1%Associate in Applied Science (AAS) 227 207 (20) -8.8%Associate in Science (AS) 274 256 (18) -6.6%Applied Technology Diploma 222 235 13 5.9%College Credit Certificate 134 155 21 15.7%Vocational Certificate (PSAV) 1,447 940 (507) -35.0%

Total 4,128 3,460 (668) -16.2%

Source: PBCC Student Download, 2006 *As of July 6, 2006

14

Student Market Profile

Palm Beach Community College serves two main student markets: students pursuing credits that will transfer to four-year institutions and those who are seeking career education. Both markets will be impacted by demographic changes through 2015. Credit-Seeking Transfer Students This market mainly consists of recent high school graduates between the ages of 18-20 and slightly older students between the ages of 21-24 who are starting college somewhat later or who are enrolled full-time at other institutions and taking only fill-in courses. Approximately three out of four of these students (74.8%) fall between the ages of 18 and 24. More than half (53.9%) tend to be white, approximately one out of four (22.3%) is black, and just under one in five (16.9%) is of Hispanic origin (PBCC, 2006). While projections for high school graduates in Palm Beach County predict an increase of approximately 30 percent over the next five years, the ethnic makeup of those graduates will change significantly as the county becomes more diverse. These changes will be most profound in the youngest age groups and less remarkable as age increases. The 20-24 age group is expected to experience the least noticeable change in ethnicity between 2005 and 2015. As depicted in Figure 15, the white non-Hispanic segment is forecast to comprise 51.6 percent of the cohort in 2015, representing an increase from 50.3 percent in 2005. The Hispanic segment, while projected to grow by 17.1 percent, will represent the same proportion of the age group in 2015 as it does in 2005 (CCBenefits, Inc., 2006). The black portion is expected to represent a slightly smaller portion, while other races will remain stable. The 15-19 age cohort will produce many of those high school graduates. By 2015 the white non-Hispanic segment is expected to have declined from 54.3 percent in 2005 to 52.5. The Hispanic group will have increased from 18.1 percent to 21.7 percent. The back proportion is expected to decrease from 24.2 percent to 22.1 percent, and all other races will represent 3.7 percent of the age group, up from 3.4 percent in 2005 (CCBenefits, Inc., 2006). Looking ahead at students of the future, the 10- to 14-year-olds are expected to experience a more significant ethnic shift. The white non-Hispanic portion is projected to decrease by 5.4 percent between 2005 and 2015, from 53.0 percent to 47.6 percent. The Hispanic segment of this age group will experience a growth rate of 44.0 percent and grow from 19.6 percent to 25.4 percent. The black portion will remain fairly stable, 23.8 percent in 2005 and 22.9 percent in 2015, and all other races will grow from 3.7 percent to 4.1 percent (CCBenefits, Inc., 2006). The diversity trend is even more pronounced in the five-to-nine age group. The Hispanic component of this group will have increased by 63.1 percent and will comprise more than half (55.9%) of the children that are added between 2005 and 2015. The number of blacks between ages five and nine is expected to have increased by 38.5 percent and whites by only 2.2 percent. All other races are expected to have grown by 27.3 percent (CCBenefits, Inc., 2006).

15

Figure 15: Projected Ethnic Changes among Credit-Seeking Transfer Student Age Groups in Palm Beach County 2005-2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

5-9 yrs2005

5-9 yrs2015

10-14 yrs2005

10-14 yrs2015

15-19 yrs2005

15-19 yrs2015

20-24 yrs2005

20-24 yrs2015

White Hispanic Black Other

Source: CCBenefits, Inc. Community College Strategic Planner, 2006 Figure 16: Ethnicity among 5-to 24-Year-Olds in Palm Beach County 2005 and 2015

2015

White48.4%

Black22.9%

Other4%

Hispanic25%

2005

White52.5%

Black23.3%

Hispanic20.6%

Other3.6%

Source: CCBenefits, Inc. Community College Strategic Planner, 2006 Overall, the 5-to 24-year age group is expected to grow by 13.9 percent between 2005 and 2015, adding more than 41,000 young people to the county. The increasing numbers of potential students should translate into increased applications for Palm Beach Community College over the next 10 to 20 years. The ethnic shifts will also result in a more diverse student body.

16

Career Education Students Career education students tend to be somewhat older and are either seeking specific skills training or general adult education. Most students seeking PSAV certificates are between the ages of 18-49, with an average age of 29.4 and a median age of 26. Approximately 10 percent are over the age of 50. Ethnically, the vocational students mirror the group seeking college credit, with approximately half tending to be white, just over one in four are black, and less than one in five is of Hispanic origin (PBCC, 2006). Forecasters predict the overall 18-49 age group will increase by 7.0 percent between 2005 and 2015, as illustrated in Figure 17 (CCBenefits, Inc., 2006). Growth is predicted to be highest among 20-29 year olds (25.0%) and lowest among the 40-49 year segment (-4.2%). The 30-39 group is expected to increase by 7.0 percent and the 18-19 cohort by only 2.2 percent. Figure 17: Growth among 18-to 49-Year-Olds in Palm Beach County 2005-2015

530

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

Thou

sand

s

Age 18-49 553,978 572,569 592,841

2005 2010 2015

Source: CC Benefits, Inc. Community College Strategic Planner, 2006 The 18-49 age cohort, like the younger age groups, is also expected to become more diverse over the next 10 years. By 2015, forecasters predict this age group will have experienced a 27.6 percent increase in number of persons of Hispanic origin, as compared to a 2.5 percent decrease in number of persons who are white non-Hispanic. Black non-Hispanics are projected to increase by 10.7 percent in number and all other races combined by 19.5 percent. Figure 18 illustrates the anticipated change in ethnic composition of this age group between 2005 and 2015 (CCBenefits, Inc., 2006).

17

Figure 18: Ethnic Composition of 18-to 49-Year-Olds in Palm Beach County 2005-2015

2005

White56.9%

Hispanic20.8%

Black18.7%

Other3.7%

2015

White51.8%

Hispanic24.8%

Black19.3%

Other4.1%

Source: CC Benefits, Inc. Community College Strategic Planner, 2006 Some vocational students are seniors aged 65 plus who are taking noncredit courses for recreational purposes. Opportunities exist to expand this market as the over 65 age group is expected to grow by more than 81,000 (30.0%) between 2005 and 2015 when seniors will represent more than one out of every five persons in the county (CCBenefits, Inc., 2006). Baby Boomers have indicated that they intend to remain active after their initial retirement, either finding new careers or becoming involved in other ventures. Figure 19 shows that the seniors group is the only age cohort whose ethnic makeup is not expected to change dramatically by 2015, when it is estimated to remain predominately white non-Hispanic at 83.7 percent (CCBenefits, Inc., 2006). Figure 19: Ethnic Composition of Over-65-Year-Olds in Palm Beach County 2005-2015

2005

White88.6%

Hispanic5.4%

Black4.8%

Other1.1%

2015

White83.7%

Hispanic7.7%

Black6.7%

Other1.9%

Source: CC Benefits, Inc. Community College Strategic Planner, 2006

18

Competition

Degree-Granting Institutions A number of degree-granting institutions maintain a physical presence in Palm Beach County (Table 5). Some offer associate degrees, while others offer bachelors and graduate programs. Most are accredited by the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools (SACS). Table 5: Degree-Granting Institutions in Palm Beach County

Institution SACS

Accredited Associate Degrees

Bachelor's Degrees

Graduate Degrees

Palm Beach Community College Yes Yes No No Barry University Yes No Yes Yes Florida Atlantic University Yes No Yes Yes Keiser College Yes Yes Yes No Lynn University Yes Yes Yes Yes Lincoln College of Technology No Yes No No Northwood University No No Yes Yes Palm Beach Atlantic University Yes Yes Yes Yes South University No Yes Yes No

Numerous other schools advertise in Palm Beach County and offer complete online degree programs. Career Education Schools More than 40 schools in Palm Beach County offer career education programs similar to those offered at PBCC. At least 20 train health care workers and over 15 offer programs in cosmetology and related fields. Others offer training for paralegals, industrial careers, truck driving and computers.

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Employment Outlook Industry Projections National America’s departure from its roots as an agricultural and manufacturing nation will continue as the nation accommodates a steadily growing population with an expansion of service-related industries. Foremost is the growth of the education and health services supersector, expected to expand by 30.6 percent through 2014. Demand for health care services will be fueled by an aging population and longer life expectancies. The health care and social assistance sector is anticipated to grow by 30.3 percent and privately owned educational enterprises should increase by 32.5 percent as more women enter the workplace, creating a greater demand for child care (BLS, 2006). The professional and business services supersector is expected to grow by 27.8 percent nationally, with the categories of administrative and support and waste management and remediation services increasing by 31.0 percent. The fastest growing industry in this sector will be employment services, which at a 45.4 percent growth rate ranks among the fastest growing industries in the nation and is expected to be among those that provide the most new jobs. These businesses supply labor, both temporary and permanent, and most new jobs are expected to arise in the largest occupational groups in this industry—office and administrative support, production, and transportation and material moving (BLS, 2006). Employment in the information supersector is expected to increase by 11.6 percent by 2014. Within this category, software publishers, Internet publishing and broadcasting, and Web search portals and data processing services are expected to grow by 67.6 percent, 43.5 percent, and 27.8 percent, respectively (BLS, 2004).

Florida Based on the latest nationwide data collected during May 2006, Florida had the fastest job growth rate and the lowest unemployment rate of the ten most populous states and added the highest number of new jobs of all states in the nation. Florida's unemployment rate continued to be below the national average (BLS, 2006). Projections for the Florida jobs market closely follow those for the nation. Of the fastest-growing occupations in the highest growth industries in Florida, almost half are from within the education and health services supersector and five are found in the information industry. Almost all require some type of education or training beyond high school, with almost half requiring a postsecondary vocational certificate (FRED, 2006).

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Palm Beach County Between 1994 and 2004, Palm Beach County added 160,000 new jobs, a 41 percent increase. During that period, the economic structure of the county shifted from manufacturing and retail to professional and business services: professional, technical, managerial, and administrative services. According to Florida’s Agency for Workforce Innovation, this trend is expected to continue. Table 6 depicts the Agency’s projections for job growth by industry through 2013 (FRED, 2006). Table 6: Projected Job Growth by Industry for Palm Beach County 2005-2013

Industry

2005 Jobs

2013 Jobs

Total

Job Growth

Annual Percent

Job Growth Professional and Business Services 113,969 145,606 3,955 3.47 Education and Health Services 76,561 96,156 2,449 3.20 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 102,865 117,248 1,798 1.75 Government 65,709 78,274 1,571 2.39 Leisure and Hospitality 66,851 77,588 1,342 2.01 Financial Activities 39,447 46,750 913 2.31 Construction 38,554 44,958 800 2.08 Other Services (Except Government) 23,744 27,901 520 2.19 Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers 46,773 49,280 313 0.67 Manufacturing 20,591 22,260 209 1.01 Information 11,061 12,461 175 1.58 Mining 39 54 2 4.81 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 7,893 6,994 -112 -1.42

Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, 2006 Occupational Projection Data 2005-2013. In May 2006, The Scripps Research Institute finalized an agreement with Palm Beach County to build a Florida headquarters in the county and maintain 409 jobs locally for at least 15 years. This endeavor is expected to attract other biotech companies to Palm Beach County and propel the biotech employment sector into the top 10 locally. Occupations Projections National and State Among the top 10 occupations expected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce the most jobs through 2014 nationally, three require training at the community college level: registered nurses, customer service representatives, and nursing aides. At the state level, The Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation listed the following 15 Hot Jobs For Community College Graduates in Florida (Table 7).

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Table 7: Hot Jobs for Community College Graduates in Florida 2005-2013

Salary Occupation Entry Mean Registered Nurses $19.65 $26.11 Computer Support Specialists $11.76 $18.11 Paralegals and Legal Assistants $13.92 $20.33 Medical Records and Health Information Technicians $9.67 $13.79 Dental Hygienists $16.68 $24.72 Radiologic Technologists and Technicians $16.79 $21.91 Respiratory Therapists $16.81 $20.34 Veterinary Technologists and Technicians $9.28 $11.88 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians $10.66 $16.20 Physical Therapist Assistants $14.78 $20.19 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians $10.87 $17.91 Environmental Science Technicians, Including Health $11.73 $16.52 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers $18.62 $24.33 Biological Technicians $10.91 $14.92 Environmental Engineering Technicians $11.72 $17.63

Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation. Labor Market Statistics, 2006 Note. Hot Jobs are occupations expected to grow faster than the state average growth rate and have the most projected openings Palm Beach County Forecasts for Palm Beach County job openings in this report are based on a calculated average of occupation projections from 2005 through 2013 made by the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation’s Florida Research and Economic Database (FRED) and CCBenefits, Inc.’s Community College Strategic Planner. The Community College Strategic Planner is a proprietary database of economic and demographic projections based on algorithms derived from 25 major data sources, such as the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of Commerce, and various state and local data. Projected annual openings include new jobs created plus replacement jobs. Shaded areas in the occupations charts indicate occupations for which Palm Beach Community College offers programs. The Appendix contains an aggregated table of all occupations and projections for which the College offers training and a table for those jobs with forecast high growth for which the College does not currently offer programs. Health Care Predictions for the local market are similar to national and state forecasts, with health care occupations offering the greatest opportunities for job-seekers. Table 8 lists the projected number of annual openings through 2013 among health care-related occupations for which training is available at the community college level. As with national and state predictions, the greatest demand will be for registered nurses, with an estimated 681 positions available annually. Licensed practical nurses and other medical assistants along with nursing and home health aides will create an additional 750 job openings annually.

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Table 8: Projected Annual Job Openings in Health Care in Palm Beach County through 2013

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings bAverage

Salary Registered Nurses 681 $23.75 Nursing Aides/Orderlies 310 $10.07 Home Health Aides 250 $9.74 Licensed Practical Nurses 203 $17.38 Medical Assistants 197 $12.92 Dental Assistants 87 $16.70 Pharmacy Technicians 65 $11.12 Medical Records and Healthcare Technicians 58 $14.46 Radiologic Technologists 55 $21.55 Dental Hygienists 54 $25.54 Lab Technicians 50 $14.80 Respiratory Therapists/Technicians 40 $17.99 Massage Therapists 27 $13.88 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 24 $23.33 Physical Therapist Assistants 17 $19.81 Surgical Technologists 16 $16.01 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 15 $19.99 Medical Transcriptionists 10 $15.24 Physician Assistants 9 $46.93 Veterinary Technologists 9 $9.30 aBiological Technicians 5 $14.13 Dietetic Technicians 4 $19.91

aProjections were made prior to the finalization of the Scripps contract with the county. Actual openings should be greater. b2005 Average salary in Palm Beach County. From the Community College Strategic Planner, CCBenefits, Inc., 2006 Note. Shaded rows indicate occupations for which PBCC currently offers programs.

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Business Management According to the Florida Agency For Workforce Innovation, the professional and business services supersector is forecast to grow by 3.5 percent annually and add close to 4,000 new jobs in Palm Beach County through 2013 (FRED, 2006). The College currently offers a wide variety of classes designed to prepare students to fill most of these roles. The county’s growing number of subdivisions governed by homeowner associations has generated a strong demand for community association managers. Through 2013, CCBenefits, Inc. and FRED predict an estimated 304 annual openings for real estate and community association managers. Florida requires an 18-hour course and examination for licensure and 20 hours of continuing education annually for these professions. Demand is also predicted to be strong for insurance salespersons and adjusters, fueled by an active real estate market, hurricane damage, and population growth. Table 9: Projected Annual Job Openings in Business and Management in Palm Beach County through 2013

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings aAverage

Salary General Office - Receptionist, Clerk 676 $11.51 Customer Service Representatives 505 $14.19 Sales Representatives - Wholesale, Mfg 458 $26.55 Executive Secretary/Administrative Assistant 365 $16.84 Bookkeeping, Accounting and Auditing Clerks 343 $14.87 Community Association Managers 304 $12.12 Real Estate Sales Agents 275 $11.99 General Secretaries 215 $12.70 Insurance Sales Agents 136 $20.12 Real Estate Appraisers 83 $10.54 Paralegals 83 $23.18 Medical Secretaries 80 $12.90 Public Relations Specialists 78 $20.44 Legal Secretaries 67 $19.52 Food Service Managers 66 $23.29 Claims Adjusters Home/Auto 30 $21.21 Lodging Managers 10 $37.25

a2005 Average salary in Palm Beach County. From the Community College Strategic Planner, CCBenefits, Inc., 2006 Note. Shaded rows indicate occupations for which PBCC currently offers programs.

24

Child Care and Human Services Demand for child care workers will increase as the number of young children in the county grows and more women enter the workforce. PBCC currently offers a variety of programs in this field. A greater number of teacher assistants and pre-school teachers will also be needed. Social services needs will also expand with the expected increases in immigration and number of older residents. Close to 100 new openings annually are expected for social service assistants and specialists. Table 10: Projected Annual Job Openings in Child Care and Human Services in Palm Beach County through 2013

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings aEstimated

Salary Child Care Workers 341 $6.59 Teacher Assistants 153 $8.59 Pre-School Teachers 75 $10.54 Social and Human Service Assistants 60 $12.63 Community and Social Service Specialists 36 $15.67

a2005 Average salary in Palm Beach County. From the Community College Strategic Planner, CCBenefits, Inc., 2006 Note. Shaded rows indicate occupations for which PBCC currently offers programs. Computer The computer sector is expected to remain strong, with close to 500 annual job openings forecast in areas in which the College offers programs. Table 11: Projected Annual Job Openings in Computers in Palm Beach County through 2013

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings aEstimated

Salary Computer Support Specialists 126 $19.43 Computer Systems Analysts 116 $30.52 Network Systems Analysts 94 $26.45 Computer Programmers 81 $32.02 Network Administrators 78 $26.12

a2005 Average salary in Palm Beach County. From the Community College Strategic Planner, CCBenefits, Inc., 2006 Note. Shaded rows indicate occupations for which PBCC currently offers programs. Trade and Industrial The College’s trade and industrial program group spans three categories: trade, apprentice programs, and personal care. Truck drivers (heavy equipment) and auto service technicians and mechanics will account for close to 300 job openings annually, keeping demand for skilled workers high. Other College offerings in heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC); welding; diesel technology; drafting; architectural drafting; and auto body repair should be popular as the number of annual job openings is expected to remain strong.

25

Cosmetology will continue to be strong, with 178 openings expected annually. Fitness and recreation are two areas that are expected to show strong gains, with 20 percent and 25 percent growth in new jobs respectively through 2013. Aging Baby Boomers, more active than their predecessors, retiring to Palm Beach County will fuel demand in these categories. Apprenticeship programs are expected to grow, fueled by growth in new construction and repairs from hurricane damage. Carpenters will continue to be in high demand, with nearly 300 needed annually. Table 12: Projected Annual Job Openings in Trade and Industrial in Palm Beach County through 2013

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings aEstimated

Salary Trade Truck Drivers - Heavy 148 $15.42 Auto Service Techs and Mechanics 130 $14.48 HVAC 61 $16.31 Welding Technology 33 $16.89 Diesel Technology 31 $16.33 Architectural Drafting 23 $21.22 Electrical Engineer Technician 23 $22.13 Machining Technology 29 $20.77 Auto Body Repair 26 $13.16 Aircraft Mechanics 25 $21.28 Civil Engineering Technicians 15 $18.31 Surveyors 14 $14.90 Professional Pilot 2 $36.65 Apprentice Programs Carpenters 280 $26.02 Painters 116 $16.50 Plumbers/Pipefitters 91 $16.36 Electricians 91 $18.31 Tilesetter 45 $14.94 Sheet Metal 28 $17.94 Structural Steel 22 $17.00 Plasterers 11 $18.88 Personal Care Cosmetologists 178 $9.60 Recreation Workers 64 $11.63 Fitness Trainers/Aerobics Instructors 57 $15.67 Nails Technician 33 $8.95 Skin Care Specialists 10 $13.25


26

Public Safety The number of new law enforcement officers added between 2005 and 2013 is predicted to increase the ranks by approximately 22 percent. When added to replacement positions, an expected 148 new officers will be needed annually. Firefighters will be looking for over 90 new recruits annually, and the county will be seeking 60 new corrections officers each year. The ranks of EMT/paramedics are expected to grow about 20 percent by 2013, with approximately 13 openings available annually. Projections forecast openings for three emergency management specialists annually; however, local response to the 2004-2005 hurricanes may significantly increase demand for this specialty. Table 13: Projected Annual Job Openings in Public Safety in Palm Beach County through 2013

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings aEstimated

Salary Law Enforcement Officers 148 $22.65 Fire Fighters 92 $21.17 Corrections Officer 61 $17.41 Public Safety Communications Dispatcher 18 $17.40 EMTs/Paramedics 13 $15.60 Fire Science Technology 6 $23.14 Criminal Scene Technology (Forensic Technician) 5 $20.14 Emergency Management Specialist 3 $31.40


Creative Arts and Communication Graphic designers will continue to be popular, with an expected 54 job openings annually. Interior design is expected to grow by approximately 20 percent, with openings for an estimated 20 new designers each year. Photography is expected to offer 27 employment opportunities annually.

Table 14: Projected Annual Job Openings in Creative Arts and Communication in Palm Beach County through 2013

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings aEstimated

Salary Graphic Designers 54 $19.07 Photographers 27 $16.02 Interior Designers 20 $28.62 Broadcast, Sound, Motion Picture Operators/Editors 17 $15.67 TV, Video, Motion Picture Camera Operators 6 $18.75


27

Landscape and Horticulture Palm Beach County will continue to offer managerial opportunities in horticulture, from numerous golf courses to the formal landscapes on Palm Beach. Environmental science is a fast-growing field that is expected to offer 23 openings annually. Table 15: Projected Annual Job Openings in Landscape and Horticulture in Palm Beach County through 2013

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings aEstimated

Salary Landscape Architect 5 $31.34 Supervisors/Managers Landscaping 78 $14.24 Environmental Science Technicians 23 $18.03

a2005 Average salary in Palm Beach County. From the Community College Strategic Planner, CCBenefits, Inc., 2006 Note. Shaded rows indicate occupations for which PBCC currently offers programs. Education

Requirements for teaching beyond the preschool level include a minimum of four years postsecondary education and a bachelor’s degree. While PBCC does not offer the required four-year program, the College offers a Pre-Major Elementary Education Associate in Arts Degree (A.A.) program designed to seamlessly transfer the student to the university system. The College’s general A.A. degree can be used as an entry tool for any level of education at a four-year university. PBCC also offers the Transition to Teaching Program, designed for non-teaching degreed professionals who have decided to enter the field. Population growth combined with the state constitutional amendment mandating lower class sizes has created a teacher shortage in Palm Beach County. Forecasters predict an average need of close to 750 new teachers a year through 2013. The Palm Beach County School District added 1,000 new teachers for the 2006-2007 school year (DeNardo, 2006). Table 16: Projected Annual Job Openings in Education in Palm Beach County through 2013

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings aEstimated

Salary Kindergarten Teacher 44 $20.58 Elementary School Teacher 307 $20.17 Middle School Teacher 123 $20.25 Secondary School Teacher 189 $20.89 Special Education Teacher 80 $20.46

a2005 Average salary in Palm Beach County. From the Community College Strateg c Planner, CCBenefits, Inc., 2006 iNote. Shaded rows indicate occupations for which PBCC currently offers programs.

28

PLANNING TOOLS

29

Environmental Scan Organizations exist within the context of dynamic environments. Changes in demographics, economic indicators, social behaviors, political attitudes, and technology present many of the challenges and opportunities facing educational institutions today. How these institutions react to and incorporate these ever-changing environmental factors into their operating and planning processes is a major determinant of their future successes. Some of the challenges Palm Beach Community College will face include a steadily growing senior population, albeit one with different social values and behaviors from its predecessors, shifting demographics that will further diversify the county, intense competition fueled by advances in technology, and funding shortages precipitated by state legislative decisions. Demographic Trends and Forecasts The population of Palm Beach County will continue to grow steadily through the next decade. Palm Beach County has been and will continue to be a popular destination for senior citizens. Palm Beach County is currently home to more than 243,000 foreign-born persons, many of whom speak a language other than English in their homes. Over the next two decades, forecasters predict that immigrants will continue to migrate to Palm Beach County (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). The younger age groups, five to nine years and ten to fourteen years, will continue to increase significantly and exhibit the greatest diversity. Economic Trends and Forecasts • Palm Beach County is and will continue to be a diverse county economically, holding the

distinction of being the wealthiest county in Florida at the same time as being home to a population where more than 10 percent of the residents are living below the poverty rate (EDRI, 2006).

• After several years of decline, poverty rates in Palm Beach County, Florida, and the nation

have been slowly rising since 2001 (EDRI, 2006) . • Minority households, except for Asians, experience lower median household incomes than

do white non-Hispanic households. National Census data for 2003 indicate median income for black households was 62 percent of median income for white non-Hispanic households, while median income in Hispanic households was 69 percent of that in white non-Hispanic households (U.S. Census Bureau, 2003).

• Job growth will follow population growth, remaining strong and keeping unemployment low

in Palm Beach County. • Professional and business services, education and health services, and construction will

continue to be the largest growth sectors in Palm Beach County (EDRI, 2006).

30

• Scripps Research Institute will create local jobs in the bioscience industry as well as attract other bioscience-related employers to the region.

• Higher-paying jobs will increase the middle class and narrow the gap in household income.

• Local forecasts closely mirror national projections. The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts

the following for the nation (BLS, 2006):

During the next decade, the greatest need for higher-skilled workers nationally will be in health care, education, accounting and computer services.

The numbers of men and women in the labor force will grow over the next decade, but

the number of women will grow at a faster rate than the number of men. The male labor force is projected to grow by 9.1 percent from 2004 to 2014, compared with 10.9 percent for women. As more women enter the labor force, demand for child care services is expected to increase.

Health care and social assistance—including private hospitals, nursing and residential

care facilities, and individual and family services—will grow by 30.3 percent between 2004 and 2014 and add 4.3 million new jobs, driven by increasing demand due to an aging population and longer life expectancies.

The professional and business services supersector, which includes some of the fastest

growing industries in the U.S. economy, will grow by 27.8 percent nationally by 2014 and add more than 4.5 million new jobs.

Employment in the segments of administrative and support and waste management

and remediation services will grow by 31.0 percent. Employment services ranks among the fastest growing industries in the nation and is expected to be among those that provide the most new jobs.

Between 2000 and 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts a 33.0 percent

increase in the number of people ages 65 to 74 in the work force.

• Housing costs in Palm Beach County have increased seven times as much as wages since 2003, and forecasters project a shortage of 31,000 affordable homes by 2010 (Koons, 2006).

31

Social and Educational Trends and Forecasts • According to The New Retirement Survey commissioned by Merrill Lynch (2006), while 76

percent of baby boomers intend to keep working and earning in retirement, on average they expect to "retire" from their current job/career at around age 64, and then launch into an entirely new job or career.

• Baby Boomers will be more active in retirement, seeking employment or educational

opportunities. • There will be an increased need for better educated workers (FRED, 2006). • A recent study estimates overall national high school graduation rates at 82 percent, with

rates for black and Hispanic students of about 75 percent. However, substantial race/ethnic gaps remain in graduation rates with regular diplomas, about a 15 percentage black-white gap and a Hispanic-white gap of 23 points, excluding GEDs (Economic Policy Institute, 2006).

• Men and women are equally likely to graduate from high school, but women are more

inclined to go to college. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, 37.2 percent of women between the ages of 18 and 24 were in college in 2002, versus 30.7 percent of men (Francese, 2002).

• The number of public high school graduates in Palm Beach County receiving standard

diplomas will continue to increase over the next five years (FDOE, 2006). • A study released by the Manhattan Institute found that two-thirds of students leave high

school unprepared for college (Green and Forster, 2003). • Enrollment at community colleges, which are more flexible and less expensive, is

expected to increase as tuition and fees for four-year institutions climb. • The peak of the largest generation since the Baby Boomers, known as the Baby

Boomlets or Millennials, is poised to graduate high school and seek higher education. Born between 1982 and 2002, they are characterized by their team spirit, strong values, technological savvy, and diversity.

• Community colleges will experience enrollment increases as this large wave of the

Millennials generation seeks post-secondary education in response to employers demand for more specialized skills and training.

Technological Trends and Forecasts • The number of home computers continues to grow; however, access to this technology is

not evenly distributed across all income and ethnic groups. • Distance learning is increasing in scope and popularity. • Distance learning will dissolve geographic boundaries and will result in both opportunities for

expanding enrollment and threats from increased competition.

32

New classroom technology tools will enhance the learning experience. • The upcoming generation of students, Baby Boomlets or Millennials, is a computer-savvy •

group and will expect the latest in technology and instructional aides. Public Policy Trends and Forecasts Florida’s Bright Futures Scholarships will now pay 100 percent tuition and fees for •

community college students who maintain a 3.0 G.P.A., up from the previous level of 75 percent (Miller, 2006).

General Revenue funding per college student in Florida decreased from $3026 in FY 01 to •

$2993 in FY 06 (FACC, 2006). State funding per college student in Florida remains 18 percent below the 15-state Southern •

Region average (FACC, 2006). increasing share of the cost of their education, currently College students in Florida bear an•

34 percent compared with 27 percent just five years ago (FACC, 2006). ell Grant Florida's investment in need-based aid equates to 13.5 percent of the Federal P•

Awards compared to 35.8 percent in Texas (FACC, 2006). ) Certificate workforce programs Florida students in Postsecondary Adult Vocational (PSAV•

are not eligible for state aid. e lobby will continue to campaign for state-sponsored financial The powerful for-profit colleg•

aid for their students. to seek external funding sources, such as federal, state and privateColleges will continue•

grants.

Competitive Trends and Forecasts The number of private for-profit competitor schools in the county will grow with the •

population. al advances will increase competition from virtual schools.

ls aggressively seek

Technologic• • Competition for students will become fierce as private for-profit schoo

students.

33

SWOT Analysis SWOT Analysis is a technique for understanding an organization’s strengths and weaknesses, and for assessing the opportunities and threats it faces. Strengths and weaknesses are organizational factors that originate internally. Opportunities and threats are identified in the environmental scan and are factors derived from external sources, such as demographics, economics, and political and social issues. The SWOT Matrix is a planning tool used to formulate strategies based on an organization's strengths and weaknesses in relation to surrounding environmental opportunities and threats. Strategies are developed by quadrant. Quadrant I and III strategies exploit the organization’s strengths, while quadrant II and IV strategies seek to overcome and/or strengthen weaknesses. SWOT Matrix

Strengths Weaknesses

Opportunities

I Strategies based on

institutional strengths in order to capitalize on opportunities

II Strategies designed to

overcome weaknesses in order to pursue opportunities

Threats

III Strategies based on

institutional strengths to avoid external threats

IV Defensive strategies to

minimize weaknesses in order to avoid external threats

Strengths • Long tenure in the community

• Wide variety of programs

• Well-known brand name

• Long-standing strong associations with the business community

• Business Partnership Councils that foster strong relationships with the business community and garner advice for better program planning

• Large alumni base

• Small class sizes

• Community college education is excellent value for the money

• Campuses located throughout the community

• Strong emphasis on data-based decision making

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• Good relationship with local funders

• Responsive to community needs

• Superior distance learning program

• Dedicated focus on diversity

• Promotes cutting-edge technology for teaching and administration

• Uses cutting-edge techniques for teaching and technology

• Diverse faculty and staff

Weaknesses • Shortage of facilities in western communities where population growth is highest

• Connection with alumni base is not strong

• Lack of strong relationship with local private schools

• Relationships between PBCC and individual public schools not strong

• Lack of long-range strategy to replace retiring personnel

Class schedules not planned in response to student needs •

Focused customer (student) service orientation not fully developed •

• Community perceptions not focused on quality of institution or education received

• Lack of strategy to compete with sophisticated for-profit competitor schools that use sales model

• Lack of an effective advising model

• s suggest an absence of well-defined community perceptions about PBCC Survey

Opportunities • Strong local growth in occupations requiring community college education

Population growth in various age groups, such as school-aged children, that will eventually • increase the pool of potential students

• New businesses moving to Palm Beach County that are potential partners, such as Scripps and other biotechnology companies

• Expanding technology that can be used to enhance education and increase access, such as innovative ways to offer distance learning

• A large number of Baby Boomers who will retire to the area and become students and/or instructors

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Threats • Changing demographics in Palm Beach County, specifically with respect to population

growth and changing ethnicity. Current programs may not meet the requirements of the future population.

• Declining enrollment as a result of increased competition for students, especially by private for-profit schools

• Declining enrollment as a result of continued countywide job growth which tends to lure students away from education

• Shortage of local affordable housing could slow population growth and cause a decline in enrollment

• A large number of students entering PBCC unprepared for college-level work and, consequently, performing poorly and withdrawing.

• Persistently low levels of state funding for college education.

• More hurricanes could have a negative impact on population and industry growth.

• Perception by some that a community college education lacks the quality of that of a four-year institution.

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Planning Assumptions Planning assumptions assimilate the factors in the Environmental Scan and SWOT analysis to form guidelines for responding to changes in the College's environment and developing strategies. Assumptions are categorized as opportunities or threats. Opportunities • A growing senior population of Baby Boomers, who are more active and likely to continue

working or change careers in retirement, will present an opportunity for programs designed for retraining or life enrichment. These students will prefer a traditional classroom setting.

• A large wave of the Millennials generation, set to graduate high school, will demand the

latest innovations in technology. They will also demand choice and convenience, such as distance learning.

• Countywide population growth among diverse groups will increase the ranks of potential

students.

• The combined effects of population growth and the need for more highly trained workers in high-growth industries will result in an increased number of students seeking a post-high school education.

• Opportunities, such as sharing facilities and equipment and developing new programs, will

exist by partnering with the business community to offer retraining or continuing education to their workers, thus creating new revenue opportunities.

• Technology, such as distance learning, will allow the College to expand geographically and

to increase course offerings through 24/7 learning opportunities. • The increase in coverage for the Bright Futures Scholarships from 75 percent to 100 percent

of tuition and fees for community college students with a 3.0 GPA is likely to trigger an increase in enrollment.

• New businesses in the community will provide opportunities to add and expand programs in

both traditional and innovative ways. • Strong growth in the younger age categories will increase the future student market. • A large existing alumni base will provide opportunities for fundraising and attracting future

students.

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Threats

• Changing demographics will produce a more diverse student body with more diverse needs than currently exist, such as extensive language requirements, preparatory courses, and cultural issues.

• Increasing diversity in the population over the next decade may stimulate demand for more

bilingual workers than are available.

• Students will continue to enter college needing developmental education, increasing the demand for preparatory classes.

• Increasing costs and competition for spots at traditional four-year universities will result in an

overflow at the community colleges. Resources at the community college level will be strained and institutions will be challenged to become more creative to meet growing needs.

• Competition for state funding will be fierce and limited as more students will come from

lower income households. Institutions will need to seek new revenue streams to meet demand and survive.

• The next generation of students was raised in a customer-friendly environment and will

expect institutions of higher learning to embody a strong customer-service philosophy. Meeting and exceeding student needs and expectations will be paramount to survival.

• More students will be employed, thereby demanding more flexible schedules.

• Competition from for-profit schools and other state institutions will increase, especially as a

result of distance learning. • Continued job growth may entice under-performing students to withdraw from college. • Potential students may opt to go elsewhere due to a perception that a community college

education lacks the quality of a four-year institution.

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Strategies Palm Beach Community College will face both opportunities and challenges as the County grows and changes over the next twenty years. Strategies developed now will enable the College to capitalize on the opportunities and meet those challenges. Program planning is a process best accomplished with a comprehensive view of the environment and a clear vision of the future. The SWOT Matrix was used to develop strategies based on PBCC's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. SWOT Matrix

Strengths Weaknesses

Opportunities

I

Strategies based on institutional strengths in order to capitalize on

opportunities

II

Strategies designed to overcome weaknesses in order to pursue

opportunities

Threats

III

Strategies based on institutional strengths to avoid external threats

IV

Defensive strategies to minimize weaknesses in order to avoid

external threats

I. Strategies Based On Institutional Strengths In Order To Capitalize On

Opportunities 1. In order to take advantage of the growing senior population, PBCC can:

Target and design more programs for seniors. Retiring Baby Boomers will be more active than their predecessors. They have indicated a desire to continue working longer or develop entirely new retirement careers. They can be attracted by the wide variety of career programs and the value offered by a community college.

Other seniors will be interested in classes for recreational purposes. These program

offerings can be expanded to accommodate the growing number of seniors in the area. Outreach programs, designed to be taught at condominiums and active adult communities, can expand the programs without need for bricks and mortar.

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2. In order to capitalize on opportunities offered through the businesses community, PBCC can:

Continue to utilize and expand the Business Partnership Councils to incorporate business’ needs into the curriculum, wherever possible.

Use its experience and expertise with the business community to design an operational

program for fostering collaboration with potential partners.

Designate someone to be the point person responsible for establishing a relationship with businesses prior to their arrival in the county or very shortly thereafter.

Develop a public relations kit that can be customized for individual industries.

Design a tour of the college, scripted and laid out to showcase the college’s specialization in that industry.

Develop proposed partnership agreements—what the College can provide and

what the College would need in return—prior to meeting with the organizations.

Use technology to offer innovative methodologies for retraining or continuing education, such as online or teleconference classes.

3. In order to capitalize on the need for more highly trained workers in high-growth industries that will result in an increased number of students seeking a post-high school education, PBCC can:

Introduce new programs in growth occupations, such as laboratory technician and recreation workers.

Partner with organizations in the high-growth industries and develop agreements to

supply trained employees. Design programs that incorporate those partners’ requirements.

Continually monitor industry and occupation projections and adjust program design

accordingly.

Add programs in high growth occupations and revisit the status of current programs in areas where job growth is forecast to stagnate or decline. The appendix contains tables with complete listings.

4. In order to capitalize on population growth that will increase the pool of potential students,

PBCC can:

Explore new avenues to meet student day care needs on campuses.

Work with organizations and individuals to raise money to create scholarships for our students.

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II. Strategies Designed To Overcome Weaknesses In Order To Pursue Opportunities

1. In order to compensate for geographical limitations, PBCC can:

Continue plans to build a campus in the western communities area.

Use technology to expand geographically through online classes.

Seek non-traditional locations for classes, such as public schools for evening classes.

2. In order to strengthen the relationship with public schools and capitalize on a growing

student market, PBCC can:

Begin reaching out to students in middle school by partnering with the business education department of the Palm Beach School District and incorporating lessons on community college-trained occupations in the careers/marketing classes.

Develop relationships with parents of public school children by interacting with PTAs,

distributing literature, and holding campus open houses.

Expand programs that reach out to students in middle school by partnering with the counseling office in the school district to strengthen the interinstitutional articulation agreement.

3. In order to strengthen the relationship with its large alumni base and capitalize on the

opportunities to fundraise and attract more students, PBCC can:

Develop campaigns and collateral materials for alumni, such as newsletters and special mailings.

Create an alumni club with special events.

Create a Panther Cubs Club for children of alumni with special events and features for children.

Create a scholarship fund for children of alumni, funded by donations by alumni.

III. Strategies Based On Institutional Strengths to Avoid External Threats 1. PBCC can capitalize on its strong focus on diversity to reduce the possibility of being

unprepared to accommodate rapidly expanding diversity in the community by:

Designing programs that are ethnically sensitive.

Including more Spanish and Creole language classes in the curriculum so that graduates will be better trained to work in the community.

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Including more cultural variety and sensitivity in both academic and vocational offerings

so that students will feel more “culturally comfortable” in the academic setting.

Expanding outreach programs by partnering with local ethnic and minority organizations. These organizations can act as liaisons to their communities and are more knowledgeable about and better positioned to reach community members, as they are already trusted, respected and accepted.

Designing supplemental marketing strategies and materials that target minority groups. Collateral materials can be printed in various languages. Advertising should be “culturally sensitive” in content and relevant in location.

Increasing efforts to recruit an even more diverse faculty. A diverse faculty will attract a more diverse student body. Faculty members can act as ambassadors in ethnic communities.

In order to prevent declining enrollment as a result of increased competition, PBCC can:

Create a competitive advantage by collaborating with partners in the Business Partnership Councils to create a seamless transition from classroom to employment for students.

Strengthen relationships with career academies regarding course articulation.

Create new partnerships and strengthen existing relationships with other institutions in

the state university system (SUS) in order to create special scholarships and a seamless transition from community college to four-year university.

3. In order to prevent declining enrollment as a result of countywide job growth, PBCC can:

Partner with area businesses to create programs designed to offer initial and continuing education to employees in order to increase skills and enhance careers. Business partners can promote the need for further education as well as create the opportunities for their employees to participate while still employed.

Partner with businesses to create work-study programs, allowing students to earn while

they learn.

Provide a full range of programs for the most sought after occupations.

Use promotional strategies that emphasize the benefits of a higher education when seeking employment and pay scale differences for those with and without post-high school training.

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4. In order to assist students entering PBCC unprepared for college-level work, PBCC can:

Continue to research best practices techniques for teaching preparatory classes and incorporate them into the Professional Teaching and Learning Centers.

Continue to use cutting-edge technology to enhance preparatory learning.

5. In order to thrive despite persistently low levels of state funding for college education, PBCC can:

Invest more resources into grant-seeking activities.

Work with local businesses to create scholarship opportunities for students who will, upon graduation, work for those businesses. For example, hospitals would pay tuition for nurses, who would, in turn, sign contracts promising to work at those hospitals for a pre-determined amount of time.

Increase development efforts by strengthening relationships with the large alumni base and local philanthropists.

IV. Defensive Strategies To Minimize Weaknesses In Order To Avoid External Threats

1. In order to avoid a shortage of instructors, PBCC can:

Target qualified retired workers to become adjunct instructors in critical areas, such as nursing. Capitalize on a strong relationship with local funders for financial support of the program.

2. In order to remove the perception that a community college education lacks the quality of a four-year institution and project a more crafted image, PBCC can:

Create a campaign that focuses on PBCC benefits, such as smaller classes, good value, personalized attention, etc.

Use successful PBCC alumni in testimonial campaigns.

Use business partners in testimonial campaigns.

Develop advertising designed to “position” PBCC as the premier educator in its class.

Propose a partnership to the other community colleges in Florida whereby all commit funds to creating a unified professional advertising campaign that enumerates the benefits of community colleges.

Market program areas as Institutes of Excellence. For example, all technical and industrial programs would be part of and promoted as the PBCC Institute of Industry and Technology. This strategy creates an image of concentration in a field of study, which naturally leads to an enhanced perception of a higher level of expertise.

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3. In order to attract more future students and prevent declining enrollment due to increased competition, PBCC can:

Become an even more student-focused, customer-oriented organization By designing

programs and processes to accommodate student needs and desires, the College can set itself apart from other institutions that are administration-focused. Today’s students have been raised in a customer-oriented society and have become accustomed to having it “their way.”

Design class schedules conducive to students who are employed.

Offer schedules that will allow students to complete a program and be prepared to enter the workforce in the least amount of time possible.

4. In order to assist students who enter PBCC unprepared for college-level work and prevent their withdrawing early, PBCC can:

Measure and define learning gaps between student knowledge and entry-level expectations. Partner with the Palm Beach County School District to develop methods to close those gaps.

Measure preparatory students’ progress at regular intervals and counsel accordingly,

before students become discouraged and withdraw.

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Program Opportunities The economic forecast for Palm Beach County is positive, with job growth continuing and demand for various occupations increasing. PBCC can capitalize on these opportunities by introducing new programs and expanding others where growth is projected. Health Care All health care occupations are expected to experience high demand as the population ages and life expectancies increase. Opportunities for PBCC to add programs in high-volume occupations exist in the fields of pharmacy technician and laboratory technician. Demand is also expected to be high for physical therapist assistants. Business and Management Demand is strong for community association managers. Through 2013, forecasters expect 304 annual openings for real estate and community association managers. Responsibilities often include managing large budgets, interacting with residents and board members, and performing various clerical skills. Students would benefit from a full program emphasizing these skills and also gain an advantage in the job market by holding a vocational certificate in real estate management. Insurance salespersons and property adjusters will also be in demand due to population growth, an active real estate market and hurricane damage. Both occupations require licensure and continuing education. An opportunity exists to bundle the insurance courses into an insurance institute specializing in insurance industry training. A similar strategy could also be employed with real estate courses by creating a real estate institute for training salespersons, brokers, mortgage brokers, and appraisers. Child Care and Human Services More child care workers will be needed as the ranks of young children grow and more women enter the workforce. Population growth, especially among immigrants and minorities, will increase demand for social workers. Opportunities exist to expand the child care programs and introduce a program for community and social service specialists. Computer Growth is expected to remain strong in this sector. Expansion of these programs through distance learning might be explored as a strategy to increase enrollment in this area.

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Trade and Industrial Opportunities exist to add programs to train electrical engineering technicians and civil engineering technicians. Surveyors will also be in demand if projections for a strong real estate market are accurate. Recreation workers will be needed to accommodate the Baby Boomer retirees expected to relocate to this area. This program has small operating costs and should attract new students. An opportunity exists to expand apprenticeship programs as demand for construction workers is projected to continue, fueled by new construction and repairs due to hurricane damage. Education The county will continue to experience a shortage of teachers as more children enter the school system and current teachers retire. The Transition-To-Teaching program holds opportunities for both the school district and PBCC. An influx of older adults will be relocating to Palm Beach County and seeking new "retirement" careers. Many of these newcomers will be qualified to teach. PBCC can capitalize on this opportunity by specifically targeting this market and attracting new students.

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References

Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). (2005). Florida Statistical Abstract 2005.

University of Florida.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (2006). Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment

Survey. US Department of Labor.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (2006). Occupational Outlook Handbook. US Department of

Labor.

CCBenefits, Inc. (2006). Community College Strategic Planner.

DeNardo, Christina. (2006, August 17). Rookies Step Lively In The Classroom. Palm Beach

Post. pp. 1B

Economic Development Research Institute (EDRI). (2006). The Palm Beach County Navigator.

Economic Policy Institute. (2006). Rethinking High School Graduation Rates. Retrieved

May 30, 2006 from http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/book grad_rates.

Florida Agency For Workforce Innovation. (2006, May) Florida Labor Market Trends.

Florida Association of Community Colleges (FACC). (2006). 2006 Legislative Budget Request.

Retrieved May 31, 2006 from http://www.facc.org/2006_Budget_Request.pdf.

Florida Department of Education (FDOE). (2006). Projected Florida High School Graduates

2005-06 to 2020-21.

Florida Department of Education (FDOE). (2006). The Fact Book June 2006. Florida Community

College System.

Florida Research and Economic Database (FRED). (2004). 2004-2012 Forecast. Florida Agency

for Workforce Innovation.

Florida Research and Economic Database (FRED). (2006). Occupational Projection Data 2005-2013.

Florida’s Agency for Workforce Innovation.

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http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/book%20grad_rates

Francese, Peter. (2002, December 1). Top Trends For 2003. American Demographics. Retrieved

May 30, 2006 from: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/ mi_m4021/is_11_24/ ai_95309969/ pg_1

Greene, Jay P. and Forster, Greg (2003). Public High School Graduation and College Readiness

Rates in the United States. Retrieved May 30, 2006 from Manhattan Institute For Policy

Research web site: http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/ewp_03.htm.

Koons, Jeff. (2006). Getting A Handle on Affordable Housing. Retrieved September 13, 2006 from

the Palm Beach County Government website: http://www.co.palm-beach.fl.us/newsroom/

0706/07-26-06_d2nl.htm

Merrill Lynch and Co., Inc. (2005). The New Retirement Survey From Merrill Lynch Reveals

How Baby Boomers Will Transform Retirement. Retrieved May 31, 2006 from

http://www.ml.com/index.asp?id=7695 7696 8149 46028 6503 46635.

Miller, Kimberly. (2006, June 28). B Students to Get 100% Grants For Community College.

Palm Beach Post. pp. 1a.

Palm Beach Community College. (PBCC). (2006). Student Download.

U.S. Census Bureau (2003). American Fact Finder. 2003 American Community Survey.

U.S. Census Bureau. (2004). American Fact Finder. 2004 American Community Survey.

U.S. Census Bureau. (2005). Florida’s Population Projections: 1995 to 2025.

U.S. Department of Justice, Immigration and Naturalization Service. (1999). Legal Immigration,

Fiscal Year 1998, Annual Report.

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http://findarticles.com/p/articles/

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http://www.co.palm-beach.fl.us/newsroom/

http://www.ml.com/index.asp?id=7695%207696%208149%2046028%20%206503%2046635

Appendix

49

Table 17: Projected Annual Openings through 2013 for Occupations for which PBCC Offers Training

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings Registered Nurses 681 General Office - Receptionist, Clerk 676 Customer Service Representatives 505 Executive Secretary/Administrative Assistant 365 Bookkeeping, Accounting and Auditing Clerks 343 Child Care Workers 341 Nursing Aides/Orderlies 310 Carpenters 280 Real Estate Sales Agents 275 Home Health Aides 250 General Secretaries 215 Licensed Practical Nurses 203 Medical Assistants 197 Cosmetologists 178 Teacher Assistants 153 Truck Drivers - Heavy 148 Sheriff's Officers 148 Insurance Sales Agents 136 Auto Service Techs and Mechanics 130 Computer Support Specialists 126 Computer Systems Analysts 116 Painters 116 Network Systems Analysts 94 Fire Fighters 92 Plumbers/Pipefitters 91 Electricians 91 Dental Assistants 87 Real Estate Appraisers 83 Paralegals 83 Computer Programmers 81 Supervisors/Managers Landscaping 78 Network Administrators 78 Pre-school teachers 75 Legal Secretaries 67 Food Service Managers 66 Corrections Officer 61 HVAC 61 Social and Human Service Assistants 60 Medical Records and Health Care Technicians 58 Fitness Trainers/Aerobic Instructors 57 Radiologic Technologists 55 Dental Hygienists 54 Graphic Designers 54

50

Table 17: Projected Annual Openings through 2013 for Occupations for which PBCC Offers Training (continued)

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings Tilesetter 45 Nails Technician 33 Welding Technology 33 Diesel Technology 31 Claims Adjusters Home/Auto 30 Machining Technology 29 Sheet Metal 28 Massage Therapists 27 Photographers 27 Auto Body Repair 26 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 24 Environmental Science Technicians 23 Architectural Drafting 23 Structural Steel 22 Interior Designers 20 Public Safety Communications Dispatcher 18 Broadcast, Sound, Motion Picture Operators/Editors 17 Surgical Technologists 16 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 15 EMTs/Paramedics 13 Plasterers 11 Lodging Managers 10 Facials 10 Medical Transcription 10 Physician Assistants 9 TV, Video, Motion Picture Camera Operators 6 Fire Science Technology 6 Criminal Scene Technology (Forensic Technician) 5 Landscape Architect 5 Dietetic Technician 4 Professional Pilot 2

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Table 18: Projected Annual Openings through 2013 for Programs for which PBCC Does Not Currently Offer Training

Occupation

Projected Annual

Openings Sales Representatives—Wholesale, Manufacturing 458 Medical Secretaries 80 Public Relations Specialists 78 Pharmacy Technicians 65 Recreation Workers 64 Laboratory Technicians 50 Community and Social Service Specialists 36 Aircraft Mechanics 25 Electrical Engineering Technicians 23 Physical Therapist Assistants 17 Civil Engineering Technicians 15 Surveyors 14 Veterinary Technologists 9

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Documents

Blueprint for Program Planning Blueprint · 2006. 11. 7. · future college enrollment. These youngest groups are also evolving the fastest. By 2015, close to half of all five-to