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Lonmin Plc Ian Farmer Chief Executive Officer 28 February 2012 BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE

BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

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Page 1: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

Lonmin Plc

Ian Farmer

Chief Executive Officer

28 February 2012

BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE

Page 2: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

2

Introduction

2

• Market update – has the cycle turned?

• South Africa – an update on recent events

• Lonmin’s performance and potential

Is the platinum industry a frog in a boiling pot?

Picture source: http://blog.publishingtechnology.com/blogs/burning-platform-boiled-frog-rusting-platform/

Page 3: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

3

Market Drivers

3

Macro Demand Investment Supply

Investor maturity

Net long-term growth

SA supply constraints

Weak European

auto market 2012

European debt

uncertainty

Bumpy 2012

Recovery from 2013

Auto rebound,

PGMs are cheap

More positives than negatives – don’t be caught unawares!

Page 4: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

4

Automotive Demand

Pent up demand will boost sales upturn – ageing car fleets 4

Page 5: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

5

Platinum ETF Investment Demand

5

Source: SFA

Recent ETF volume movements have tracked metal prices

Page 6: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

6

Palladium ETF Investment Demand

6

Source: SFA

Recent ETF volume movements have tracked metal prices

Page 7: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

7

Operational Challenges to PGM Producers

• Safety

• Labour costs and management

• Skills

• Transformation and equity ownership

• Social pressures

• Resource nationalism

• Power

• Zimbabwe

Increasing supply risk

Page 8: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

8

Supply Forecasts – a Regressing Target

Potential for supply to surprise downwards

Source: SFA

Page 9: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

9

PGM Supply-Demand Estimates

Markets heading for deficits

Source: Lonmin, SFA

Palladium Rhodium Platinum

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

08 10 12 14 16

Balance Supply Demand

Forecast

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

08 10 12 14 16

Balance Supply Demand

Forecast

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

08 10 12 14 16

Balance Supply Demand

Forecast

Page 10: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

10 10

Lonmin

View

Opportunities

• Industrial and auto demand recovery

• View changed from balance to deficit in 2012

• Supply incapable of keeping up – growing deficits

in 2013 - 2015 period

• Stronger/earlier demand upswing

• Supply surprising on the downside

• Even tighter market and even higher prices

PGM Market Outlook

Risks

• Euro zone slump/break-up

• China slowdown

• Substitution

Long term fundamentals for PGMs remain attractive

Page 11: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

11

Lonmin of the Future

The pillars to building a healthy PGM business

Growth

• LTP

• Leverage Marikana

• Productivity

• HR Development

• Other assets

• B/Sheet Capacity

SCALE, GROWTH, LOW COST, BALANCE SHEET

PGMs

Global

Economy

SA

Environment

Costs

• Productivity

• Growth

• Systems

Social

• Sustainability

• Safety

• SLP / Transformation

•Employee Relations

• Culture / Values

Macro

• Markets

• Global Risks

• Communications

• Energy & Water

Page 12: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

12

Safety Performance and Journey

Sustained commitment to our journey

2005 6

2006 6

2007 3

2008 3

2009 3

2010 3

2011 6

2012 YTD 1

Industrial Fatalities

Page 13: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

13

Marikana Mining – DMR Safety Stoppages

DMR stoppages remain a feature

84,059 64,849 108,952 37,498 295,357 21,730 47,922 132,030 83,444 285,126 177,074 177,074

4,844 4,710

6,652

2,413

18,619

1,512

3,127

7,962

5,260

17,861

10,695

0 0 0

10,695

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

0

80000

160000

240000

320000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total FY

Saleable Pt Ounces Tonnes hoisted

Actual Production lost due to Sect 54 (Quarterly)

Tonnes Hoisted Lost FY10 Tonnes Hoisted Lost FY11 Tonnes Hoisted Lost FY12

Calc Pt oz's Lost FY10 Calc Pt oz's Lost FY11 Calc Pt oz's Lost FY12

Page 14: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

14

Labour and Productivity

Labour Relations, productivity and costs

• Structural unit cost inflation in mining

• Deteriorating trend in productivity

• Impact of strikes

Labour Relations, productivity and costs

• Initiatives launched over past few years to

improve delivery and productivity

• Regular dialogue with unions and employees

to enable early identification of issues

• Management of interdependence of socio

factors and productivity

Arresting declining productivity

Issues to Manage Lonmin’s Response

Skills

• Holistic HRD strategy developed

• Attract, develop and retain a skilled workforce

• Investing in education and training

programmes

• Availing opportunities to labour pool in

communities

Skills

• Skills shortage

• Impact of the changing social framework

• Addressing historical legacy

Page 15: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

15

Transformation and Equity Ownership

• New targets in the revised Mining Charter

• Differing perceptions of transformation

progress

• Achieving Phase 2 Mining Charter equity

ownership requirements

• 26% BEE equity ownership and credits by

2014

• Transformation sub committee of the Board

• 2014 Social Labour Plan targets aligned

• Accelerated spend and commitment to

community projects, education and health

• HDSA targets remain on track but achieving

WIM and 40% HDSA at all management

levels is challenging

• Roadmap to 26% equity ownership submitted

to DMR

• Broad based equity structure for employees

and communities

• Complete transaction with Shanduka on our

Limpopo Division

• Regular DMR and KPMG audits.

Communications vital

Fundamental element of our licence to operate...the right thing to do

Issues to Manage Lonmin’s Response

Page 16: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

16

Social Pressures and Resource Nationalism

Social Pressures

• Socio political business disruptions

• Community expectations are on the

increase

• Potential detractor from the running of

operations

• Impact on morale and productivity

Social Pressures

• Fostering conflict resolution strategies with the

communities where we operate

• Committed to unlocking value for the Bapo

community

• Creating employment for youth in the

community

Disruption and morale risk

Issues to Manage Lonmin’s Response

Resource Nationalism

• Impact of policy uncertainty on valuations

and ability to attract capital and cost

thereof

• 2012 a year of political change

• Policy uncertainty and regulatory treacle

• Rumour of tax changes

Resource Nationalism

• Senior management’s presence in SA enables

better understanding of the issues

• Shanduka partnership

• Keysha – remain confident of our position and

will follow judicial process

• To address conflict of directors interests

Page 17: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

17

Marikana Mining Underground production overview

Momentum restored

*

Page 18: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

18

Marikana Mining Development

Immediately available ore reserves

Note: In FY09, we changed our reporting methodology for ore reserve development, in line with industry best practice, to exclude partially

developed ore reserves. We have reported on this more conservative basis since then. FY08 and prior years are not restated.

A reserve level that allows confident planning for the future

Centares Months

Page 19: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

19

Processing – Smelting

Smelter Performance

• No smelting related incident in the past 21 months

• Running well and stable at 14 MW since design

change in December 2010

Number Two Furnace

• Construction on track – commission scheduled for H2

• 10MW circular pyromet furnace using plate cooler

technology will provide back up capacity

• Providing optionality

Improving furnace reliability driven by an experienced team

Page 20: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

20

Processing Division Recoveries

Sustained improvements

70.68%

72.37%

70.40%

79.07%

82.52%

60.00%

65.00%

70.00%

75.00%

80.00%

85.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rec

ove

ry (

%)

Total Recovery

Page 21: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

21

Maintaining Ability to Grow

• Continued focus on maximising the value of Marikana asset

• K4, Saffy and Hossy shafts – new generation shafts already developed

• Enhanced production from K3 our largest shaft

• Balancing capital spend on long lead projects – with working capital requirements

• Building capacity to produce 950,000 Platinum ounces

• Near term, retain production flexibility to respond to prevailing market conditions

• Options beyond Marikana

• Pandora – extension of current underground operations

• Akanani – a palladium play

• Limpopo – working in partnership with Shanduka

• Exploration success in North America

Balancing investing for growth, profitable ounces and balance sheet

prudence

Page 22: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

22

Conclusion

• Industrial demand recovery in combination with voluntary and involuntary SA supply cuts…..metal price reaction could be acute

• Managing and delivering on issues within management’s control will be key – we are making progress - safety initiatives will remain a focus

• We continue to build on a healthy operating platform – Q1 2012 results are a good start

• Investing for future growth whilst delivering profitable ounces and maintaining a strong balance sheet; and

• Growing down the relative cost curve over time

Building for the future

Page 23: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

Lonmin Plc

Questions

Page 24: BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE - The Vault BMO GLOBAL METALS & MINING CONFERENCE . 2 Introduction ... • Global Risks • Communications • Energy & Water . 12 Safety Performance

24

Disclaimer

This presentation, which is personal to the recipient, has been issued by Lonmin. This presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this announcement, including without limitation those regarding Lonmin's plans, objectives and expected performance, are forward-looking statements. Lonmin has based these forward-looking statements on its current expectations and projections about future events, including numerous assumptions regarding its present and future business strategies, operations, and the environment in which it will operate in the future. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as 'ambition', 'may', 'will', 'could', 'would', 'expect', 'intend', 'estimate', 'anticipate', 'believe', 'plan', 'seek' or 'continue', or negative forms or variations of similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors related to Lonmin, including, among other factors: (1) material adverse changes in economic conditions generally or in relevant markets or industries in particular; (2) fluctuations in demand and pricing in the mineral resource industry and fluctuations in exchange rates; (3) future regulatory and legislative actions and conditions affecting Lonmin's operating areas; (4) obtaining and retaining skilled workers and key executives; and (5) acts of war and terrorism. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions and many relate to factors which are beyond Lonmin‘ control, such as future market conditions and the behaviour of other market participants. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. Given these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, you are cautioned not to put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. In addition, the inclusion of such forward-looking statements should under no circumstances be regarded as a representation by Lonmin that Lonmin will achieve any results set out in such statements or that the underlying assumptions used will in fact be the case. Other than as required by applicable law or the applicable rules of any exchange on which Lonmin's securities may be listed, Lonmin has no intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements included in this presentation after the publication of this presentation. This presentation is for information only and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase, any shares in Lonmin or any other securities, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or investment decision related thereto. Information supplied by host presenters may not be used, referenced or published without the prior written consent of the author of the presentations.