Boating Trends & the Significance of

Demographic ChangeGary T. Green

University of Georgia Ken Cordell

U.S. Forest Service, Athens, GA& Becky Stephens

University of Tennessee

www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends

WHAT THIS PRESENTATION WHAT THIS PRESENTATION COVERSCOVERS

• The NSRE & its background• An overview of population growth &

demographic diversification• American’s environmental values • Recreation boating participation &

trends• Segmenting the American public &

understanding their differences

HISTORY & CURRENT COVERAGE OF THE

NATIONAL RECREATION SURVEY

• 1st National Recreation Survey (NRS) 1960

• 1965, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1995 & 2000-02• National & Regional Demand

Assessments• Renamed the NSRE• Nation’s On-going, Long-term Outdoor

Recreation & The Environment Survey

MODULES OF QUESTIONS

• Participation in Recreational Activities• Frequency of Participation in Days• Favorite Activities & Constraints• Nature-based Trip Taking/Tourism• Opinions about Recreation Area

Management• Environmental Attitudes & Values• Values & Objectives for Management of

Public Lands

MODULES OF QUESTIONS

• Wilderness Values, Knowledge, Visitation, & Management

• Knowledge, Objectives, Satisfactions with Congressionally Designated Areas

• Ownership, Uses, Motivations & Plans for Private Land

• Wildland-Urban Interface Issues & Attitudes• Lifestyles, Demographics & Disabilities

LIFESTYLES--NEW• Hobbies or other interests• Chores or gardening at home• Involvement with family• Interest in sports• Community or civic activities• Vacationing and travel• Self study and cultural events• Exercise

DETAILED HOUSEHOLD & INDIVIDUAL DATA

(Employs Bureau of Census Protocols)No. of household members by age & sex

Citizenship, where born & country of originRace & ethnicity, Disabilities

Occupation & employment statusCity, rural/urban, ZIP Code

Childhood originIncome & education

NSRENSRE• 80,000 households, Keys to the Artic

Wildlife Refuge• Non-institutionalized individuals 16 & older• Nation’s 8th on-going recreation survey• USFS, NOAA, ERS, EPA, NPS, BLM.• National Scenic Byways, Wilderness, State

Agencies, Bicycle Safety, Pew Wilderness Center, …..

DEMOGRAPHICCHANGE:

Know the Know the Trends & Trends &

Better Better Anticipate Anticipate

Market ShiftsMarket Shifts

Our Changing American Our Changing American SocietySociety 1 million new legal immigrants per

yearMore people: 1990 248 mm

2020 325 mm2050 404 mm2100 571 mm

Getting older:Median age 3538 (2020)Changing ethnicities by 2050:

Anglo Americans 76%50%African Americans12% 15%Hispanic Americans 9%

21%Asian Americans 4% 11%

Demographic Percentages: 1960 & 2000

Family Income (1998$s) (N.B:45 million U.S. families in 1960,almost 75 million families in 2002)Percentiles 1960 2000

20th $14,093$21,600 40th $24,298$37,692 60th $32,215$56,020 80th $44,547 $83,693 95th $68,521 $145,199

Demographic Percentages: 1960 & 2000

Educational Attainment, (Age 25 & Over) PercentEducation level 1960 20008th grade or less 37.5 7.49-11th grade 18.5 9.7High school graduate 27.1 33.8Some college 9.1 24.7College degree or higher 7.7 24.4

WHAT AMERICAN’S WHAT AMERICAN’S VALUE ABOUT OUR VALUE ABOUT OUR

ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT

Too Much 7%

Too Little 49%

About Right 28%

(Don’t Know) (15%)

Humans Were Meant to Rule Over Nature

14%

Strongly Agree

15%

Somewhat Agree

19%

Somewhat Disagree

42%

Strongly Disagree

29%

61%(6% Neutral)

Percentages Indicating Environmental Protectionor Economic Development are Highest Priority

Source: Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll, April 13-14, 1999.

Source: Roper Organization, 1990; Times Mirror, 1994; NEETF, 1998.

Source: Dujack, 1997.

Percentage of AmericansReporting Regulation of Natural Resources is “Just the Right Amount” or has “Not Gone Far Enough.”

LONG-TERMLONG-TERM

TRENDSTRENDS

At PresentAt Present•Over 97.6 percent report activities

•Most are adding to their recreation menu

•Living longer means staying active longer

Shifts in Outdoor Recreation Markets

• Technology innovations are making more areas,

more accessible:- Jet boats- Light-weight

gear- Sub-zero

sports clothing

- Sticky climbing shoes

- Night scopes

• Risk/Adventure pursuits are

gaining in popularity:

- Base jumping- Falls shooting- Mountain

boarding- “Jet skiing”

• Traditional outdoor activities still growing (moderately); consumptive activities declining; viewing/learning activities on the rise.

• Almost 90 percent of Americans participated in Outdoor Recreation• Walking, picnicking, sightseeing, swimming, fishing, & bicycling the most popular activities

• 97 percent participated

• List of pursuits getting longer, more diverse

• Walking, sightseeing, swimming, picnicking, boating most popular

1990’s

1980’s

TRENDS

Fishing Canoeing/Kayaking Sailing Swimming

020406080

100120140160

1960

1965

1982-83

1994-95

1999-2000

Long-Term Trends - Water

43.148.8

64.063.3

2.6 4.3 15.017.5

3.95.7

11.310.6

61.371.8

99.7118.0

33 34 34 32 34 2 3 8 9 11 3 4 6 5 5 47 50 53 59 66 Percent

74.8

24.210.9

145.3

(131 million)

(144 million, 10% more)

(188 million, 44% more)

(216 million, 65% more)

(220 million, 68% more)

(12 or older)

Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or older, 1982-2002

MillionsGrowth No. in 2002

Walking 85.4 179.0Bird watching 50.0 71.2Hiking 48.4 73.1Swimming/river, lake, or ocean 36.4 92.9Sightseeing 32.7 114.0Picnicking 31.8 116.6Bicycling 27.4 83.9Developed camping 22.8 52.8Motor boating 17.8 51.4Off-road driving 17.3 36.7

ActivityMillions of participan

ts1994-95

Millions of participan

ts2000-02

% change 1994-2002

Kayaking 2.58 7.29 182.56Snowboarding 4.43 10.53 137.70Jet skiing 9.26 20.31 119.33View/photo fish

26.82 53.06 97.84

Snowmobiling 6.95 11.81 69.93View wildlife 61.11 95.26 55.88Backpacking 14.80 22.76 53.78Day hiking 46.68 70.62 51.29Canoeing 13.76 20.63 49.93

PARTICIPATION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES

ActivityMillions of participants 1994-

95

Millions of participants 2000-

02

% change 1994-2002

Coldwater fishing

20.27 28.81 42.13

Developed camping 40.53 55.73 37.50Drive off-road 27.26 37.21 36.50Rafting 14.88 20.22 35.89Walk for pleasure 130.66 177.00 35.47Visit nature centers 90.93 122.28 34.48Family gathering 120.97 156.78 29.60View birds 52.83 69.26 31.10

Motor-boating 47.0 51.8 10.2

PARTICIPATION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES

ActivityMillions of

participants(2002) 2003

WhitewaterNo’s

Ocean

No’s

Salt wate

rNo’s

Kayaking (7.3) 13.6 2.6 5.1 2.1

Canoeing (20.6) 26.2 3.8 1.5 2.1

PARTICIPATION BY SETTING

N.B. Preliminary data results for 2003

Type of Activity Millions of Participants National

South North Rocky Mtn./Great Plains

Pacific Coast

Trail/street/road 59.6 82.6 15.7 30.4 188.4

Viewing/learning 44.5 66.2 12.4 23.1 146.1

Camping 18.5 27.4 7.5 12.4 66.5

Hunting 8.8 9.6 2.9 2.1 23.7

Outdoor adventure 35.2 50.5 11.1 19.8 117.0

Boating/floating 23.6 35.3 6.7 10.8 76.5

Fishing 26.8 29.2 6.7 9.1 72.4

Swimming 40.1 57.6 9.2 21.2 127.4

Ski/sledding/snowmobiling

8.9 31.9 5.2 8.3 54.4

Outdoor team sport 14.6 21.3 3.9 7.4 46.9

Social activities 53.3 74.6 14.4 27.6 169.9

Regions Where Participants Reside

KayakingSnowboarding

Jet skiingView or photograph fish

Snow-mobiling

Ice Fishing

Sledding

View wildlife

Backpacking

Day hiking

Bicycling

Horseback riding

Canoeing

Motor-boatingPrimitive camping

Sailing

Visit historic sites

Downhill skiing

Snorkeling/ scuba

Visit beach/waterside

Anadromous fishing

Caving

Small game hunt..

Migratory bird hunting

Picnicking

Warm-water fishing

Saltwater fishing

Swimming

FASTEST GROWING SLOWEST GROWING

Mountain climbing

Coldwater fishingDeveloped camping

Drive off-road

RaftingWalk for pleasure

SurfingVisit nature centers

Visit arch. sites

View birds

Family gathering

Projected Demand to 2020Millions Indexed % ChangeParticipating (Base year

is 1995)Activities (1995) People Days Trips

Water-BasedGoing to the Beach 124 1.24 1.17 1.17Motor Boating 47 1.21 1.14 1.16Swimming 78 1.21 1.12 1.09Fishing 58 1.17 1.17 1.10Canoeing 14 1.15 1.28 1.14Rafting/Floating 15 1.07 1.17 1.10

Winter-BasedCross-Country Skiing 6 1.26 0.961.12Downhill Skiing 17 1.22 1.31 1.36Snowmobiling 7 1.09 1.32 1.35

DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINTS OF FOOTPRINTS OF

BOATERSBOATERS

CANOERS

•43% female, 57% male•87% non-Hispanic white•33% under 25, 77% under 45•Incomes $25K to $75K•Under 80% urban•Favored by Northeasterners & Midwesterners

KAYAKERS

•44% female, 56% male•85% non-Hispanic white•60% under 35, 40% under 25•Over 1/3 earn under $25K•85% urban•Heavier participation in New England & Pacific Coast States

SAILERSSAILERS

•48% female, 52% male48% female, 52% male•84% Non-Hispanic white84% Non-Hispanic white•44% under 3544% under 35•Middle to high income Middle to high income earnersearners•87% urban87% urban•Favored in the North-eastFavored in the North-east

WINDSURFERS

•67% male, 33% female•50% under 25, 56% under 35•1/3 between $25-$50K, 1/3 over $100K•Northeast & Pacific Coast

MOTOR MOTOR BOATERSBOATERS

•57% male, 43% female•52% between $25K & $75K•77% urban•Favored in the Lake, Midwest & South Atlantic states•58 % between 25 & 55

•57% male, 43% female•52% between $25K & $75K•77% urban•Favored in the Lake, Midwest & South Atlantic states•58 % between 25 & 55

WATER SKIERS

•60% male, 40% female

•86% white, 8% Hispanic

•86% under 45

•Favored by Prairie &Favored by Prairie & Mountain states Mountain states residents residents

PERSONAL WATER CRAFT

•54% male, 46% female

•79% white, 11% Hispanic

•66% under 35

•Favored in the Midwest & South

Group Walking

Swimming Outdoors

Hiking

MotorBoating

Downhill Skiing

Big Game Hunting

Percent of Total Population

83.8 43.8 33.4 24.4 8.3 8.2

Race/Ethnicity

White 1.02 1.15 1.03 1.25 1.20 1.28

Black 1.00 0.49 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.27

American Indian

1.00 1.00 1.14 1.14 1.57 2.00

Asian/ PI 1.08 0.92 0.96 0.54 1.46 0.23

Hispanic 0.88 0.75 1.42 0.50 0.55 0.43

Place of Birth

United States

1.02 1.04 0.93 1.06 1.05 1.07

Another Country

0.81 0.56 1.67 0.37 0.44 0.30

Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor

activities by race & country.

Group Walking Swimming Outdoors

Hiking

Motor Boating

Downhill Skiing

Big Game Hunting

Percent of Total Population

83.8 43.8 33.4 24.4 8.3 8.2

Age16-24 1.02 1.37 1.11 1.24 1.89 1.1725-34 1.01 1.21 1.20 1.16 1.32 1.2535-44 1.03 1.19 1.21 1.15 1.14 1.1345-54 1.01 0.99 1.04 1.00 0.78 0.9955-64 0.98 0.68 0.78 0.81 0.32 0.8265+ 0.94 0.37 0.55 0.51 0.12 0.54Income<$15,000 0.91 0.62 0.88 0.57 0.48 0.38$15,000-$24,999

0.98 0.79 0.98 0.63 0.41 0.81

$25,000-$49,000

1.02 1.10 1.04 1.07 0.75 1.31

$50,000-$74,999

1.08 1.28 1.11 1.36 1.17 1.38

$75,000-$99,999

1.09 1.39 1.20 1.59 1.86 1.21

$100,000+ 1.09 1.43 1.29 1.67 2.76 1.09

Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by

age & income.

BEING MORE EFFECTIVE IN OUTREACH,

LISTENING, AND INFORMING

YoungNew EnglandWind Surfers

(0.9%)

NatureLovers(27.2%)

The Inactives(22.0%)

The UrbanBeach Boys

(3.8%)

The NoreasterMusclers (6.2%)

The ThrillSeekers (8.3%)

Hunt-n-FishMen’s Motor Club

(6.3%)

The Take it Easies(25.3%)

Segmenting for more effective

communication and education

Hunt-n-Fish Men’s Motor Club (6.3%) Hunt, fish, motorized, camp, motorboat (53%),

canoe

Don’t participate in beach activities or much in viewing/learning

88% male, 90% white, under 45, U.S. born, much more rural, Prairie & Southern

Belong to wildlife conservation group, read nature magazines, woodworking, own a business, garden, have pets & do home improvements

Humans were meant to rule over the earth & environmental crisis is exaggerated

The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%) Diving, Surfing, Snorkeling, Kayaking, Sailing,

Backpacking, Snowboarding, Saltwater Fishing, Water Skiing, Jet Skiing. more active than most people in most activities, except hunting

Two-thirds white, Asian/Pacific Islanders well represented, majority under 35, U.S. born, & urban

South Atlantic & Pacific Coast

Regularly go to movies, use internet at home, participate in environmental groups, invest, & attend classes, involved as a youth volunteer, into the arts

Feel humans are abusing the earth, we’re on a course for ecological catastrophe & the balance of nature is delicate

Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%)

Windsurfing (71%),surfing,kayaking (48%),

sailing (68%), non-motorized winter activities,

diving, snorkeling, rowing (28%) & canoeing (55%)

More active than most Americans in all activities, including water & jet skiing

>85% white; 2/3’s male; ½ under 25; urban, U.S. born

New England & Pacific Coast strongly represented

Into movies, lifelong learning classes, participate with environmental groups, regularly attend movies, belong to country club, use internet & into the stock market

Strongly believe environmental crisis is greatly exaggerated, though we are nearing the earth’s limits

The Noreaster Musclers (6.2%)o Cross-country skiing, rowing (31%), kayaking (28%),

canoeing (53%), downhill skiing, sailing (25%), hiking, visiting a wilderness, backpacking, snowboarding, bicycling & fishing

o They don’t hunt, but are active in most other activities

o Somewhat more male than female, white & Asian/Pacific Islander, young to middle aged, urban, from New England, Prairie, Mountain & Pacific states

o Members of conservation groups, use internet at home, attend concerts, have vacation property, invest, belong to country club

o More belief that we are abusing the earth, the balance of nature is delicate & may be heading for disaster

The Thrill Seekers The Thrill Seekers (8.3%)

Waterskiing (62%), jet skiing (68%), rafting (46%), snowmobiling, snowboarding, motorboating (83%), downhill skiing, driving off-road, rowing & canoeing

Very active across a large number of activities

Equally male/female, white & American Indians well represented, two thirds under 35, almost all born in the U.S., from Plains states

Youth volunteers, belong to a country club, use the internet, attend movies, watch sports on TV, gather with friends & neighbors

Balance of nature is delicate, humans are abusing the earth, & a disaster is looming

SUMMARY POINTS

•Society has changed dramatically in the last few decades, & it shows up in our outdoor recreation

•Outdoor recreation is growing & diversifying as a part of Americans’ lifestyles, almost everyone is involved at some level

•Walking, birding, hiking, swimming are at the top of the activity growth list, not far behind is motor boating

SUMMARY CONTINUED•Population will continue its rapid growth with some groups literally exploding in numbers

•Increasingly women, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, older &urban people participating. OR is still very much a white male pursuit

•Indicators point to rise of outdoor recreation & more demands on water resources

•People are showing strong concern for the environment & its water resources

•Need to be smart about outreach & education strategies

NSRE 2005

• Sponsors, Partners, Working group, etc

• Sponsoring surveys, modules, questions

• Individual reports, by State, activity, demographics

• Contact ggreen@fs.fed.us

www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends