Boeotian Population History

8/11/2019 Boeotian Population History

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approached again from the end of the 20th century AD

4

, but even as recent as

1981,

wi th a

census total of125,849, not achieved. The intervening Medieval era, according to

f ragmen ta ry

sources and the localized detailed record from our own in t ens ive surveys in several

d i f fe ren t

dis t rict s of north , cent ral and east Boeot ia, m ust have been characterized by levels way below

those even of Late Ant iqui ty.

5

As for the four hundred years of Ot tom an Turk i sh ru l e (15th to

early 19th century), we a re fortunate now topossess reasonably full statistics fo r individual

vi l lages and the two towns of Thebes and Lebadeia between 1466 and 1687 - thanks to the

9999pioneering research of Machiel Kiel in the Ot tom an Im perial tax

arch ives .

6

According to

m y

local izat ion of nam ed vi l lages w ithin the ancient borders of Boeot ia, the peak of Ot tom an-era

population

in the

16th century

ADachieveda

m a x im u m

of

around 40,000population (the

two

regional towns

included),

m erely one quarter o f the C lass ical G reek peak . I shal l return later to

these com parat ive f igu res , to ask how w e should interpret such regional den s i ties .

In conclus ion, the C lass ical G reek peak seems to surpass all other periods , with the Late

Rom an on purely archaeological evidence not far below, and the rem aining prehis toric and

historic

phases

being considerablybeneath

these two

high density occupations

of the

region

(on

the

evidence

of

intensive survey).

Do

Site Numbers

and

Sizes Translate Directly into

Population

Numbers?

My

m ore tricky question relates to the absolute validity of usin g archaeological s ite

numbers fo r

inferring

relative or

even

absolute

populations

- an issue which affects mos t

pressingly

th e

prehistoric

periods when no meaningful overall population

records exist from

texts, and as noted above, LateAntiquity, where

also

oursources are inadequate in this

respect.

Regard ing

prehistory,

the Palaeolithic and

Mesolithic

m i ll enn ia surv ive on ly as t he m eres t

pal im pses ts of archaeological evidence, and i t i s cus tom ary to deploy ethnographic an alogies to

m odel likely hum an

densities

from com parable environm ents - but this wil l resul t in levels below

anyth ing known or in fe r red from all subsequent historic phases.

7

If

we now turn our at tent ion to later prehis tory - the Neol i thic and Bronze Ages , where

archaeological data and research at tent ion are both r ich, an un dou bted lyfalse sense of conf idence

has been engendered by the seemingly dense d i s t r ibu t ion maps one can make

from

regional

catalogues such as that produced by John Fossey for Boeot ia, or Aegean-w ide catalogues such

as theHope Simpson & Dickinson Gazetteer.

8

As I have discussed in a previous paper -also

in

relat ion to JohnFossey's and our ow n work in Boeotia

9

, Neol i thic and Bronze Age s i te m aps

fo r most parts of Greece - even those w i th intens ive survey resul t s - can in our present s tate of

know ledge usua l ly on ly ind ica te a reas o f t he l andscape wh ere hum an

activi ty

was intense in each

4

Sauerwein

1991.

5

C f. Bintl iff

2000a.

6

Kiel 1997,

cf.

Bintliff

1995.

7

Cf. the

t hough t fu l

discussion inPerls 2001.

8

Fossey 1988, Hope Sim pson & Dickinson 1979.

9

Bintliff2000b.

T h e A n c i e n t W o r l d

36.1(2005)


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J O HNBINTLIFF

ancient occupation sites, whichwe have termed 'sitehaloes', and

which

appear

to have

been

created by natural weathering,

plough

disturbance, and

rubbish

disposal or garden-cultivation

by

the

past inhabitants

of

these sites.

As

ceramics ,

in

theory

at

least these carpets

are

datable,

but

naturally

th e

condit ion

of

sherds incorporated into rubbish andthen

field

m anure , dum ped d irec tly in toth eplough soiland

subsequently tossed around by cult ivation and the weather to the present day, is very poor

compared

to the

sherds

we f ind at the

rural set tlement sites them selves, wh ere freshly-disturbed

levels offer large andrecent ly broken pot tery in good diagnostic condit ion. On e needs ana rm y

of tireless pottery specialists

or a

single genius

to

date

sufficient

of the

offsite

sherds

to

provide

a

stat istically-reliable sam ple of their age. In our case w e were lucky to have th e genius -

Professor John Hayes - whose knowledge of ancient and m e d i e v a l to postmedieval sherds is

unparalleled

in the

ent i re Mediterranean,

and i t was his

success

in

dat ing mos t

of our

offsite

sherds that opened up one of the

major

surprises of the

Boeotia Survey record.

Whilst rural sites

in the

Boeotia Survey area climaxed

in

num bers

in

later Classical

and

Late Rom antimes,th eoffsite carpets around ancient Thespiae city were almost entirelyClassical

Greek; L ate Antiquity played no greater role than Early Rom an or Medieval in their cre ation,

and

that w as very sl ight . I f we follow th e pioneer studies of Near eas tern manuring carpets by

Tony

Wilkinson

15

, then dominant per iods of m anuring should ref lect population pressure on

agricultural product ion. I t now appears that the L ate Rom an period was not such an era. On the

other hand, in the Thespiae c h o r a th e total occupational surface area of Late Roman rural s ites

w as larger than

in

Classical Greek t imes.

Our first explanation for this paradox has been kn own to us since themid-1980s,an d that

w as th e fate of urban s i tes , which went in the opposite direction to rural s ites: if L a t e R o m a n

rural sett lem ent w asdenserandlarger than Class ical Greek t im es ,incont rast La te Rom an towns

an d

vil lages were generally smaller

- or

even abandoned

-

compared

to

their flourishing size

an d

n u m b e r

in

Classical Greek

t imes .

16

This might suggest that

t o t a l

urban plus rural population

w asconsiderably lower for Late Antiquity , hence there was no need for intensive agricultural

m a n u r i n g . Our later ref inementsto population calculat ions, however, for therural hinterlandof

ancient

Thespiae

17

,

extrapolating th e Late Roman s i te area and densit ies to the ent i re c h o r a

come up wi th a c o m b i n e d urban and rural s ite area total - and by implication - a total set t led

population,

at

Classical Greek levels.

Atthispoint

a

second refinement

in

intensive survey

can be

deployed

to

help resolve

th e

paradox.This reveals a further important anomaly in the Boeotian rural siterecord: there is a

curious disparity in the assem blages typical fo r Classical Greek an d Late Roman rural s i tes . If

th e

f o r m e r

h as

every th ing

y ou

expect

of

domest ic agricul tural life,

th e

latter class contrasts

a

m u c h

larger site

area witha highly-im poverished range of pottery types: roof t i les , s torage and

transport amphorae form the vast bulk of Late Antique rural s ite finds, with a notable poverty

15

Wilkinson

1989.

16

Bin t l i f f

&

Snodgrass

1988.

17

Bin t l i f f,

Howard

&Snodgrass

inpress.

8


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EX PLO R A TIO NS

IN

BO EO TIA N PO PU LA TIO N HISTOR Y

of evidence

fo r

food preparat ion

and

consumpt ion

and

other varied farm activit ies

(a n

observation

found

on

other recent intens ive survey s , such

a s

M e t h a n a ,

L .

Foxhal l ,

p e r s . com.).

At least for the one sector of our Boeot ia Survey wh ichw ehavefully analyzedhitherto,

the south

c h o r a

of Thespiae city, w e now believe that the rural estate centers were largely em pty

of resident personnel. A skeleton

force

of estate m anagers and slaves or other full-t im e

main tenance staff oversaw large complexesof roofed storage facil i t ies, but the work force w e

believe was draw n from paid or dependent labor resident in the regional tow ns and vil lages. The

adoption of the 'agro-town' model

from

Early Modern southern Italy

18

would account for the

discrepancy between site extent anddom estic debris atLate Ro m an rural s i tes , and the absence

of

a

Late Ant ique m anur ing phase

-

total population

w as

indeed

lo w

enough

to

suffice

on

extensive

rather than intens ive fa r ming .

TheComparison ofPopulation Densities inBoeotia

I w ould now l ike to turn to w hatI think is the m ost interes t ing, and potent ially the m ost

significant, set of quest ions con cerning com parative population and land uselevels in a region

such

as

Boeotia, taken

in the

long-term

perspective:

w h a t

do

such densities

tellus

about hum an

ecological relationships,

economic

sustainability,

and

their

roleinsocial

change?

One is im m ediately struck by the historical t im ing of the two highest population levels

fo r Boeotia - ca . 400 BC and then from around 1880 AD onwardstotoday . Broadly-speaking,

all thatw ek n o w a b o u tth erespect ive econom ies of the Classical Greek and Early Modern eras

for Boeotia places the m po les apar t. Classical Boeotia had a neg ligible export o f its prim arily

agricultural products an d a low export of i ts m etal ores, so that i ts econom y was d om inated by

auto-consumption. Early Modern Boeotia

had a

g row ing agricultural

and

indu strial expo rt sector

of con s iderable im portance, s t im ulated l ike m ostof late 19th centuryAD Greece byexpanding

m o d e r n

communica t ion and com m erc ia l iza tion syst em s em anating from Western Europe

19

,

al thougham ajor par tof itsproduction st il l rem ainedinmore tradit ional regional productionand

consumption.

20

A continual trend to the present in Boeotia has been a greater and greater

rel iance

o n

agricultural exports

a nd

related

o r

un relatedfactory em ploym ent boos t ing ever l a rger

regional populations.

21

The

' fa i lu re '

to

reach

or

exceed Classical Greek population levels

in

Early Modern t imes

is due to

waves

of

emigration

out of the

region, whether abroad

or to the

m a j o r

citiesof G reece - primari ly Athens . In cont rast , during An t iqui ty, Boeotian involvem ent

in the founding of

Archaic

and

Classical colonies

is

very sl ight,

nor

were Boeot ians

a

m a j o r

element in the

populat ion diaspora caused

by

Alexander 's colonial act ivi t ies

in the new

Hellenist ic provinces of the Middle East .

If we relate the probable Classical Greek population of Boeotia to the m odern calculat ion

18

Blok 1969;

Ikeguchi 1999-2000.

19

Asch enb renn er 1972.

20

Sauerwein

1991.

21

Slaughter

&Kas imis

1986.


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JO HN

BI N TL I FF

of cult ivable land,

an d

est im ates

of

esta te s ize , crop yie lds

and food

needs

fo r

ancient t im es,

it

becom es apparen t tha t Boeo t ia a round 400 BC m us t have been a t the m ax im um l im i ts o f

agricul tural potent ia l , and for any length of t im e, w ell beyon d the l im i ts of

sustainabil ity.

22

Unti l la te Hellenis t ic t im es we h ave no evidence to suggest that the region w as a regular

impor te r

of food , so w e

have conf idence

in

c la im ing tha t

food

product ion

w as

un der great s t ra in

to feed

resident

regional

population.

It is exactly in keeping with

these

calculations that our

discovery regarding the s ingle peak of in tensive m anu ring in the Thespiae coun tryside, durin g

Classical Greek t im es,

finds i ts

exp lana t ion :

i t was o v e r p o p u l a t i o n

that drove

th e

people

of

Thespiaet o

in tens ive m anur ing

of the

ent i re landscape wi th in

2- 3

k i lom e te rs

of the

urban cen te r.

Following

on

from this scenario,

th e

collapse

of

regional populat ions

in the

fol lowing period

of

Late Hellenis t ic to Early Rom an Im peria l tim es can reasonably be associa ted, to a

m a j or

extent

in ou r v i ew, w i th the b reakdow n o f foodprod uct ion consequent on rapidly-decl in ingfood yields

from exhausted soils.

23

Our firstprovis ional conclusion then, i s that the c losest m atching for the 400 BC regional

population, that dem ographic boom running

from

around 1900 AD to today , is fortu i tousand

no t

the

product

of

s imi la r mode ls

of

land

use and

e c o n o m y

-

indeed

the

opposite:

one - the

Modern - sustainable (a t least in the m e d i u m to longterm), and the other com plete ly not so.

Em igration out of the region can be seen as a sa fe ty-valve on local populat ion grow th in Boeotia

f rom

the late 19th century, and i t continues today on a lesser scale.

In

this context

we

would wish

to

suggest that Roman

to

Late Roman populat ions were

associated w i th ye t ano the r k ind o f l and use and econom y, where ex tens ive f ann ing l i nked to

large estates

w as

prominen t ,

an d

land

fa r from

max ima l ly

in use -

hence also

a

sustainable

economy.W e a re

current ly invest igat ing

th e

balance

of

export versus regional

autoconsumption

fo r

th e

R o m a n -L a te R o m a n ce n t ur ie s ,

but i t is

general ly argued that

th e

villa estates very

common in La te Roman

Greece

would have been significantly oriented towards export of

foods tuffs

for the im peria l ci ties and the Rom an

frontier

a rm ies , a s we l l a s prov id ing

food

fo r

their work forcesandregional towns . We would provisionally postulatea low total population

with a h igh degree of specia l izat ion in export crops.

Our current archaeological su rvey data w ould suggest (a l thoug h the evidence is s t il l

accumulating)thatfol lowing a l ike ly dem ograph ic dec l ine dur ing the t roub led pos t-Rom an 'Dark

Ages ' (7th to 9 th centur ies AD), the recovery of Boeotia and other Mainland Greek regions

dur ingthe 10th-12thcenturies AD (the Middle Byzantine revivalofgreece),saw the population

of tow ns and v i llages g row toge the r . There was p robab ly a dom inance o f reg iona l

au toconsum pt ion , and a minor expor t p roduc tion o f food and other produ cts (s ilk being kno w n

fo r Thebes)

for the

w i d e rEmpire.

A n y

food exports were proba bly associated w i th large pr ivate

o r m onas t ic e s ta te -owners , r a the r than peasan t-p roducers . The Prank i sh -Crusader dom ina t ion

which fol lowed in the13th-15th centuriesAD will probably have been organized in a sim i lar

fash i on . Our s urvey data and l im i ted h is tor ic sources point to populat ions in both town an d

22

Bintliff

1997b.

23

Bintliff &

Snodgrass1985.

10


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EX P L O R A T I O N S IN BOEOTIAN POPULATION HISTORY

country

increasing in the

long-term

f r o m900 to the

1340s

AD,mirroringtherestofEurope.

24

Overall,

however,

the relationship of

these Medieval populations remained

wellbelow

regional

maximum

carrying-capacity,

even if wetooka

more sustainable level

for

that, well

below the

overpopulation of ca. 400 BC discussed

earlier.

The

OttomanFlorescence and its

Contribution

to Boeotian Demographic

History

After the heavy toll in local population resulting

from

the Black Death and almost

perpetual warfare and piracy in the later 14th and 15th centuries AD, Boeotia follows the rest

of Europe once more in wi tnes sing dem ographic growth dur ingth e 16th century, s t imulatedby

th e

tolerant

an d

low-tax regim e

of the

P a x

O t t o m a n i c a

-

th e

mos t f l our i sh ing phase

of the

O t toman Turkish

Empire.

25

Evidence from Boeotia an d

Attica

26

agrees with this n ew growth

phase far exceeding Medieval levels, while st i l l fal l ing well short of Classical Greek densit ies:

a

mere

quarter of the level of ca. 400 BC by the late 16th century

A D .

Yet we now reach the

hub of the

debate:

what do these com parative levels indicate for prosperi ty, peasant wel l -being,

economic sa fe ty?

W e

have reasoned that

th e

Class ical G reek farm ers were increas ingly under

pressure of declining yields and o verpopulat ion by late Class ical t im es , and w ere driv en to

ext rem e m easures such as recurrent and m ass ive agricul tural m anuring program s to s tave off

starvation. These an d other m easures ult im ately failed, and the region fell into dem ographic and

apparently severe social decay

27

, paving the way for the abusive exploitation of the fo r mer

peasantry by the owners ofm edium to large

estates

which seems to characterize Rom an tim es .

The

16th century

AD

Ottom an cl im ax population

of

around

40,000

people

is the

product

of a rapid

demographic

growth

from

a severe lowpoint in the late 14th century. Had the series

of linked crises w hich aff l icted the Ot tom an Em pire from the late 16th through the 17th

century

28

not had the effect in m any , but by no m eans al l of it s

provinces,

of creating economic

an d population decline

an d

radical settlem ent re structurin g, could

w e

have expected

a further

growth which m ight have ended in a s im ilar Mal thus ian overpopulat ion to that of 400 BC?

This might seem

to o

speculative

a

question

to

address, since

th e

highest Ottoman level

is only in total a quarter of that suggested for late Classical t ime s. This in itself rules out

population pressure and land exhaustion as significan t factors in the o v e r a l l 17th century

Ottoman decline (and calculated population densit ies inother provinces , fo r example

Anatolia

29

or

Palestine

30

, are in

agreement with

fa r

from m axim al leve ls ). Actua l ly , how ever ,

th e

details

24

B int l i f f 2 0 0 0 a -b .

25

Kiel 1997.

26

Kiel 1987.

27

Bintl iff & Snodgrass 1985.

28

Inalcik

1972.

29

Faroqhi

1990.

30

Htteroth1975.

11


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JOHN

BINTLIFF

of

th e

Boeotian Ottom an vi l lage populat ions reveal

a

fascinat ing var iabi l i ty

and one

w i th

a

very

clear

historical explanation.

In

1466,

our

f i r s t -known dfier

or

tax-register

fo r

Boeot ia groups vi l lages in to Greek

Christian an d newly-created Albanian im m igrant ( f ig . 1). The latter are n um erous , ub iqu itous

but al l

sma l l

in

size,

an d

this probably reflects

th e

extended

kin

social units

f u n d a m e n t al

in

this

sem i-pastora l society , whose m em bers

had

been invited

to

recolonize large areas

of

Southern

Mainland Greece abandoned

in the

14th

to

early 15th centuries

due to the

Black Death

and

cont inual w ar fare

an d

piracy.

31

Th e

other group,

th e

Chris t ian Greek vi l lages,

are

f e w ,

focussed in their d is t r ibut ion, and m ost ly m uch larger . They are old foundat ions, on or near

settlem ents in existence since Byzantine and

Prankish

t im es. They su rvived the la te Medieval

crisis because they

are

usual ly upland refuges wh e r e

th e

Greek populat ion nucleated

for

protection. When, however, the settled conditions of the P a x O t t o m a n i c a inaugurated over a

century of demograph ic g rowth , and al l the Boeotian villages rose in size, these large refuge

villages - even if growing at the same rate as the small Albanian - kept their size differential and

became very large .

How

large

w as

that?

Let us focus on the

mos t p rominen t members

of

this group (f ig .

2).

P

AN AY

A (west-central Boeotia, see figs . 1-2)

This

village

is the

natural successor

to the anc ien t

large village

or 'comopolis' of

Ascra ,

v ia

possible

cont inuity through the post-Rom an Dark A ges and a Byzant ine and Prankish v i l lage of

only moderate

size.

I t fo rm ed , how ever , a refuge village for regional Greek populations in the

14th century

an d

took

off

dur ing

th e first

part

of the

Ottom an period.

Th e

ear ly Ottom an

settlem ent w as deserted in the 17th century and its size at its late 16th century peak has

been

calculated through

o ur

gr idded surface

survey

32

, to

have been a lmo st exactly that

of theancient

village - some 11hectares. Our theoretical estimate for such a settled area in Antiquity would

suggest

a

population

of

around 1200-1300people ,

an d

rather satisfyingly

th e

Ottom an regis ter

fo r

Pan aya 's peak in 1570 is reason ably close to that (som e 1075 residents). It m ust be added,

how ever , that there are m any m ore rura l sa te ll ite s i tes around Ascra inGreek an dRo m a n t im e s

than in the Medieval and Post-Medieval per iod, so that the to ta l Val ley populat ion was

signi f icant ly m ore e levated

in

Ant iqu i ty than d ur ing

th e

16th century

AD.

Nonetheless ,

for our

purposes th e rem arkable d iscovery is that in the Valley of the Muses local populat ion densi ty

is

wel l

on the way to

achieving

our

a n ci en t m a x i m u m , i m p l y in g v e ry full land

use and a

str ik ing

contrast

to the

ma jo r i ty

o f

Boeot ia , where densi t ies were less than

on e

quarter

of

Classical

dens i ty .

So far we h a v e no t analyzed our data for the 'offsite ' pottery

from

th e Valley of the

Muses to tes t i f there are m anur in g phases a t o thertunes than the single period around 400 BC

evidenced

in the

south h inter land

of

Thespiae . Signif icant ly , a l though there

is

also

a

Medieva l

31

Bintliff 1995.

32

C f. Bintliff 2000a.

12


9/13

EXPLORATIONS IN

BOEOTIAN POPULATION HISTORY

and late Turkish replacem ent v i llageon and near theancient ci tyofThespiae- Erimikastro, its

populat ion was always a m ere

fract ion

of that for the giant 100 hectare tow n of Class ical Greek

times.

Up to 400

residents

are

registered

in the

census

in the

17th century

AD,

al though sur face

survey suggests thePrankish 13th century AD vi l lage was m aybe twice as large. C lassical Greek

Thespiae, however , should have contained something l ike

12,000

people, and no repeat of i t s

associated m axim um intens i ty land use was requi red in Medieval-Postm edieval t im es .

VRASTAMITIS

(ModernIpsilanti, west-central Boeotia)

This i s another large Ea r ly Ottom an per iod vi l lage w hich develops from a precedingPrankish

village,

which in turn isassociated with the largest andm ost imposing Crusader feudal tower

in

Boeotia.

It may occupy the

niche

of an ancient dependent

village

of nearby Haliartus city

although our surface survey at modern Haliartus also found there a Byzant ine, Prankishand

ear ly Ottom an set tlemen t(Harmena).Fromthe com parativesizes,how ever , one can seethatby

the 16th centurytheancient roles h avebeen reversed, withVrastamitesas the domi nantdistrict

center for the ancient ter r i tory of Hal iar tus and the sett lem ent by the ancient ci ty m uch less

f lour i shing. At i t s peak Vrastam i tes has alm ost 900 res idents (1540 AD ), wh i ls t the vi l lage by

ancient Hal iar tus only reaches a contem porary m axim um of 280 people. Ancien t Hal iartus m ay

have r eached some4500 res idents around 400 BC .

33

Even com bi ned , Vras tam i tes -Harm ena is

stilla population

focus

on ly a third to a quar ter of the ancient Hal iartus n ucleat ion, and thus not

much elevated over the general rat io of Boeot ian 16thcen tury AD population levels to those of

Classical Greek tim es. Locally, atleast, Vrastam i tes is a settlement of unusual s ize.

KAPRENA (western Boeotia)

On the ancient

acropolis

of the

Classical

city of Chaeronea lies extensive surface potteryof a

large Medieval and Ottoman set t lement . In the 16th century defters this

village

of Kaprenais

another very large G reek Chr i st ian com m uni ty surviving from aPrankish settlem ent. Herethe

larges t 16th century Boeot ian vi l lage (peak 16th century census of some 1445 residents) has

replaced a m oderate-s ized Class ical city on i t s own s i te . The area ofancient Chaeronea is far

f rom ce r tain, b ut a recent es tim ate suggests som e

2000-3000

people for Classical Greek

times.

34

Once again, al thou gh m aybe on ly a half of the ca. 400 BC peak, Kaprena in the

Ot toman f lo rescence i s a m a j o r regional nucleat ion considerably above the typical s ize of

contem porary set t lem ents elsewhere in Boeot ia.

W h a t we see then wi th these three refuge villages is that the prosperi ty of the early

Ot toman

era has

encouraged them

to

grow wi thin thei r geographical niches

to a far

higher level

than the res t o f Boeotian rural set t lem ent; not reaching the stressful Class ical Greek peak, but

perhaps i nd i cat ing a t r a jec tory tha t m i ght have t aken them there i n the longer - te rm . A scra a t

33

Bintliff 1997b.

34

Bintli ff 1997b.

13


10/13

J O H NBINTLIFF

least was within reach of expanding to Classical Greek levels within the immediate

f u tu r e ,

by

1570.

Two dif fe ren t Medieval to early Post-medieval village trajectories have been identified:

1) Medieval villages which were abandoned in the 14th-15th century crisis and were

resettled by small Albanian clans, then grew steadily to the late 16th century.

2) Medieval villages which acted as refuge nucleations during the

14th-15th

century

crisis, and which grew in the 16thcenturyat the same rate as smaller villages but from a far

higher starting population.

Type

1

villages stop developing around 1570 having only reached

a

quarter

or

less

of

potential human carryingcapacity,type 2 by that date are higher density and seem to be growing

towards

a future

maximization

of

land-use

not far f rom

Classical levels. Panaya/Ascra

and

Erimokastro/Thespiaeillustrate the two types well: the f o r m e ris a large r e f uge village through

the

late

Medieval crisis, whilst the latter is abandoned then and only reappears in the

later

Turkish 17th century. Only

Panaya

is moving towards recovering its Classical population level.

Are

there

any

additional hints that these

'Super'

villages have enhanced activities

to

suit

their status in their 16th century climax? Machiel Kiel has commented on two unusual features

fo r two of the group.

35

Panaya not only constructed ten water-mills (of which we have

rediscovered

threeduring our archaeological surveyof theValleyof the

Muses),

but wasalso

prosperous enough to

found

two small monasteries. Signs that Vrastamites was developing into

a

place

ofprosperity andimportance arethat it

possessed

two

monasteries

and was the

site

of

a

fair.

According to the view I have put forward earlier in this paper, were the whole settlement

system

of early Ottoman Boeotia to have continued to expand to the same population density as

the

handful

of

super-villages, then

the

region would have reached unsustainable overpopulation

and

within

the

following century

or so

should have succumbed

to a

Malthusian

demographic

crash, due to regional crop shortages. This is the scenario sketched by Le Roy Ladurie for

population cycles

in pre-Industrial

Europe.

36

Pre-Industrial populations were fundamentally

supported by agricultural productivity, but before modern agricultural

technology,

fertilizers,

pesticides and advanced animal and crop breeding, intensive mixed f a r m i n g could not be

sustainedin the

long-term, creating characteristicboom-bust cycles

of

demographic

riseand

fall

with wavelengths

of

some300-500years.

Are there

possible

first symptoms of economic stress in the

economic

records of the

super-villages?

Kiel's

discussion of the evidence from the Ottoman tax records suggests that the

pressure felt b yBoeotian villages from th elate 16th centurywas no t ye t

f rom

internal shortages

but fromincreasingtaxlevels,whose imposition seems to mark the point beyond which f ur t h e r

expansion was not possible within the existing socio-economic and technical circumstances .

37

Our

comparative

discussion

would seem

to indicate

that apart from Panaya, which

was

already

35

1997,pers.c om m .

36

Ladurie & Goy1982,cf .

i n t l i f f

1997a.

37

Kiel1997' 327; note that h ispopulat ion f igures are rather

di f fe rent ly

calculated frommine.

14


11/13

EXPLORATIONS INBOEOTIAN POPULATION HISTORY

heading towards local production decline by this time, the other large and especially the

dominant small villages

of

Ottoman Boeotia still

had

considerable growth potential before

sustainability-problemswould have become apparent. External developments within

the

Ottoman

imperial infrastructure, however, intervened before this trajectory could unfold.

L e i d e n University

T h e N e t h e r l a n d s

John

Bintliff

15


12/13

JOHNBINTLIFF

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Boeotian Population History