BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

A POLICY TOOL FOR COMMUNITIES TO IMPROVE

EDUCATION SURGES, PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION,

EM. RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY FOR NATURAL DISASTERS

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

BOOK OF

BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE

KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

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On Science, Policy,

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COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

•EDUCATION•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EM RESPONSE•RECOVERY

POLICY TOOLS FOR POLICY TOOLS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

POLICY FOR POLICY FOR DIS. DIS.

RESILIENCERESILIENCE

POLICY FOR POLICY FOR DIS. DIS.

RESILIENCERESILIENCE

RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• EVENTEVENT

POLICY ASSESSMENT

• COSTCOST

• BENEFITBENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

BUILDING A CULTURE FOR NATURAL BUILDING A CULTURE FOR NATURAL DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

NATURAL NATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS

NATURAL NATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

• CLIMATE CHANGE

• DROUGHTS• EARTHQUAKES• FLOODS• SEVERE WINDSTORMS• WILDFIRES• LANDSLIDES• VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS• TSUNAMIS

• NORTH AMERICA

• SOUTH AMERICA• EUROPE• OCEANIA• CARIBBEAN

• ASIA RUSSIA INDIA CHINA SOUTHEAST ASIA

BOOK OF

BOOK OF

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KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

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On Science, Policy,

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•A report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

•June 20, 2008

• A joint effort of more than a dozen government agencies• for the report, go online to www.usgcrp.gov

•"Heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to increase in frequency and intensity.”

• "Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity.”

• “Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase.”

• The strongest winter storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights."

Soil amplification of earthquake ground shaking is likely to be more pervasive.

Landslides triggered in earthquakes are likely to be more extensive.

The impacts of tsunami wave run up will be more extensive.

“By the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years now could be taking place every five years.”

y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years.•Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

• “An increase in frequency can lead to more frequent occurrences of flooding events such as those that occurred worldwide during 2007.“

y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years.•Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

Drought is the result of the interaction of rainfall, which can be highly variable, and human systems, which can be very vulnerable to changes in rainfall.

Drought is related to climatic variability that usually is occurring far from the community or the area being impacted by drought.

PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION

DROUGHTS DROUGHTS

LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE

LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER

LOSS OF VEGETATION

INSECT INFESTATION

PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

• CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY EL NINO OR LA NINA

• LOCATIONS IN SHADOW OF MOUNTAIN RANGE

Earthquakes occur as the result of interactions between and within tectonic plates in the lithosphere, which are slowly converging, diverging, or sliding past each other as a result of stresses created by ongoing heat flow within the Earth.

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

• ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY A SHALLOW FOCAL DEPTH

• ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY BEING IN OR CLOSE TO THE FAULT RUPTURE ZONE

• AMPLIFICATION OF GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY SOFT SOILS

• LONG DURATION ACCELERATION CAUSED BY FLING OF FAULT

• BUILDINGS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND LATERAL GROUND SHAKING

• LIFELINE SYSTEMS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAULT RUPTURE, LANDSLIDES, AND LIQUEFACTION

BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS

INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, DEATH AND

INJURY

LOSS FUNCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE

VULNERABILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

Flooding occurs when the local river channels, floodplains, wetlands, and water tables are not able to contain, store, or transmit local precipitation and runoff.

FLOODS IN NORTH KOREA: AUGUST 7-14, 2007

FLOODING IN CHINA: JULY 2007

FLOODING IN CHINA: JUNE – JULY 2007

FLOODING IN CHINA: JULY 2007 (50,000 kg of dead fish)

FLOODING IN HENLEY ON THAMES, ENGLAND: JULY 2007

FLOODING: TEWKESBURY, ENGLAND: JULY 2007

FLOODING IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE, ENGLAND: JULY 2007

FLOODING AND OIL SPILL IN COFFEYVILLE, KANSAS: JULY 2007

FLOODING IN THE SUDAN: JULY 2007

FLOODING IN IRAN: JUNE 2007

FLOODING IN MARBLE FALLS, TEXAS: JUNE 2007

FLOODING IN LAGOS, NIGERIA: JUNE 2007

FLOODING IN PAKISTAN: JUNE 2007

FLOODING IN KANSAS, USA: MAY 2007

FLOODING IN SALINAS, KANSAS: MAY 2007

FLOODING IN BOLIVIA: FEBRUARY 2007

• COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE LOCATED IN THE FLOODPLAIN

• PROLONGED RAINFALL

• A LARGE DRAINAGE BASIN

• HIGH VELOCITY FLOW

BOOK OF KNOWLEDE SEVERE WINDSTORMS

WIND AND WATER INSIDE BUILDING ENVELOPE

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS

UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS AND STORM SURGE

FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAIN

QUALITY OF WORKMANSHIP

IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

• AN EXTRAORDINARY STORM SURGE

• BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE THAT ARE VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS AND FLOODING

• A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM

• LARGE VOLUME MUDFLOWS

• INADEQUATE EVACUATION

BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES

LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS

SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS

EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING

BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

LANDSLIDES ALTER LAND SURFACES

Once tropical forests (a carbon sink) are cleared for cattle ranching or community development, the cleared land can becomes a major source of methane, a greenhouse gas.

• SLOPES COVERED WITH LOOSELY CONSOLIDATED SOIL AND ROCK

• REDUCTION IN SLOPE STABILITY CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING

BOOK OF KNOWLEDGEWILDFIRES

LIGHTNING

WILDFIRESWILDFIRES

MANMADE FIRES

PROXIMITY OF URBAN-WILDLANDS INTERFACE

WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION

CUTTING FORESTS

DENUDED SLOPES

HOT, DRY WEATHER

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

BOOK OF KNOWLEDGEVOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA)

IN PATH OF VOLCANIC PLUME AND ASH (AVIATION)

IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS

IN PATH OF LAHARS

INADEQUATE WARNING ANO EVACUATION

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

BOOK OF KNOWLEDGETSUNAMIS

HIGH VELOCITY OF INCOMING WAVES

TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS

DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP AND RUNOFF

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS

FLOODING

INADEQUATE WARNING SYSTEMS

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGEBOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

•PREVENTION & MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICIES FOR RISK POLICIES FOR RISK MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

BOOK OF

BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE

KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

On Science, Policy,

And EM HI-ED

And EM HI-ED