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Bord Bia’s
Brexit Barometer 2018
Gwladys HallStrategic Insight Director, Kantar Worldpanel
All Change?
Fluid Times for UK Grocery
Gwladys Hall
Bord Bia
21 June 2018
4
ALTRUISM
Sugar & Plastic
The Triple-A of the UK Grocery Market
5
ACQUISITION
Retailer Landscape
ADAPTATION
Brand Growth
Gwladys Hall
ACQUISITION
Retailer Landscape
6
Acquisition?
7
As a profitability drive, Tesco UK CEO, Charles Wilson (ex Booker CEO) is closing Tesco Direct
8
Tesco-Booker mega merger is paying-off, so far
9Worldpanel Plus
Using our new Shoppix App
We’ve asked our panellists what they thought of this announcement
Worldpanel Plus. 21,545 results were collected.
A REAL PLUS
Spend share indexed vs national share
Asda & Sainsbury’s shoppers base are geographically complementary
Till Roll. 12 w/e 22 April 2018 10
Scotland
North
Midlands
East
London
South
Wales
127
61
136
76
118
4380
119
75
159
72
103
94
97
Asda share vs national average
Sainsbury’s share vs national average
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000
91% of Households have shopped in Sainsbury’s or Asda last year
Till Roll – 52 w/e 22nd April 2018 (1 year continuous panel) 11
13mShoppers
of Both
20mJS
Shoppers
20mAsda
Shoppers
Number of shoppers
49%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Asda
Sainsbury's
Share of spend among
shoppers of both stores
UK Grocery growth & like for like inflation
Inflation now running at 2.1%
12
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
J M S J A A D M J N F J O J M A D A J N M J O F M S J A A D M J N M J O J M S J A A D M
Grocery inflation
Grocery growth
% change
20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
RT43 (Grocery). 2018 05. 12 w/e 20 May2017
Pre 2015 average:
Growth 4.2%
Inflation3.5%
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-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
A S O N D J F M M A M J J A S O N D J J F M A M J J A S O N D J J F M A M J J A S O N D D J F M A M
Till roll growth
Grocers up +2.7%
Till Roll. KWP 2018 05. 12 w/e 20 May 18
% spend growthGrocers
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
£+2.1%
Growth
Inflation
+2.7%
+1.1%
Frequency
Basket Size
-1.1%
13
No of Charts
Orientation
Chart Position 1
Chart Position 2
Chart Position 3
Chart Position 4
InsightBox
ChartDetailsBox
OptionalTextBox Deleted
OptionalFootnote
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X-Axis Heading Used
2ndY-Axis Heading
Legend
Data Labels
Highlight
Benchmark
Time Series
Colour Palette
Call Out
Template Used
Background
Source
Source Sheet
Start Cell
IdenticalBlocksAcross
IdenticalBlocksDown
SimilarBlocksAcross
SimilarBlocksDown
PastedViews
Layout
AddYrYrDataLabels
Chevrons
Till roll market share and growth
vs a year ago
Till Roll. KWP 2018 05. 12 w/e 20 May 18
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
% spend share % spend growth
Share
Growth
2.7Grocers100.0
2.2Tesco27.7
1.0Sainsbury's15.7
2.8Asda15.4
2.9Morrisons10.5
6.7Aldi 7.3
1.5Co-Op6.0
0.3Waitrose5.1
10.4Lidl5.4
0.8Iceland2.1
-5.2Indeps & symbols1.8
12.7Ocado1.2
14
Till roll market share & growth
Vs one year ago
Share
Growth
£214m
£462m
Online
Supermarket
Convenience
High
street
Discount
UK Channel switching
Still about online & discounters
RT43 (Grocery). 2018 05. 12 w/e 20 May 17 15
Online share of UK grocery
Share growth slowing to under 0.5%pts per annum
16RST (Grocery). KWP 2017 13. 52w/e 31 Dec17
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
7.3
2016
6.8
2015
6.1
2014
5.1
2013
4.4
2012
Online
% FMCG spend
Projection:
12% by 2025(Kantar Worldpanel global ecommerce report)
7.5
2017
Aldi + Lidl UK market share
Till Roll. KWP 2018 04 12 w/e 22 Apr 2018 17
4.1%May 2008
12.7%May 2018
62% of the population shopping there in 12 weeks. Larger basket sizes too.
Aldi & Lidl UK growth
Slowing again
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
MMAMJ J A SOND J FMMAMJ J A SOND J FMMAMJ J A SOND J J FMAMJ J A SOND J J FMAMJ J A SOND J J FMAM
Lidl
Aldi
2016201520142013
% spend growth
2017
Till Roll. KWP 2018 05 12 w/e 20 May 2018
2018
UK Discounters vs. Bargain Stores
Smaller basket sizes mean bargain stores are 3 times smaller in sales
19RT43 (Grocery). 2018 05. 12w/e 20 May 18
+9%
£2.9bn
PENETRATION
62%
FREQUENCY
9
TRIP SPEND
VALUE
£19.17
+3%
£1.0bn
PENETRATION
54%
FREQUENCY
10
TRIP SPEND
VALUE
£6.35
ALDI & LIDL BARGAIN STORES
Adaptation
Brand Growth
20
Branded vs. Own label trend in the UK
Own label continues to grow much faster than brands, but gap is closing
21
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
MMJ S ND F A J AON JMM J S ND F AM J S N JMM J AOD F AM J S N JMA J AOD FMM J S N JMA J AOD JMM J S N J F A J AOD JMM
Own label
Brands% spend growth
20142013201220112010200920082007 2015 2016 2017
RT43 (Grocery). 2018 05. 12 w/e 20 May 18
2018
UK Own labels are diversifying and targeting new consumer based
Shopper choices save money, but also potentially trading up or going vegan!
22
Value
own label
Standard
own label
Brands Premium
own label
+3% +4% +8%+2%
RT43 (Grocery). 2018 05. 12 w/e 20 May 18
UK Brand Footprint
5 sector reports
23
Beverages Dairy Food Health and
beautyHomecare
Altruism
Sugar & Plastic
24
Altruism…
Shoppers and consumers want at least some of their health concerns dealt with by brands
Almost two thirds of people think manufacturers should reduce sugar in drinks
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Q3. Which single action would you prefer that drinks companies carried out in response to the sugar tax? Base: 11,991 respondents
I don't know
Other action (please specify):
Make smaller sized bottles
Use different ingredients (e.g.
artificial sweeteners)
Reduce sugar in drinks
Increase the price
26
Shoppers and consumers want at least some of their health concerns dealt with by brands
Almost two thirds of people think manufacturers should reduce sugar in drinks
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Q3. Which single action would you prefer that drinks companies carried out in response to the sugar tax? Base: 11,991 respondents
I don't know
Other action (please specify):
Make smaller sized bottles
Use different ingredients (e.g.
artificial sweeteners)
Reduce sugar in drinks
Increase the price
56 26
10
100
2014
43%
10
100
2018
33%
The sugar dial has moved
For a combination of reasons
Reformulation Innovation Rebalancing Consumers
27
Altruism…
28
Based on 21,545 Shoppix app responses, collected on 11 May 29
Worldpanel Plus. 21,545 results were collected.
A REAL PLUS
Using our new Shoppix App
We’ve asked our panellists how concerned they are
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
If food and drink
manufacturers could do one
thing to reduce plastic
waste, what would you ask
them to prioritise?
0Other (please
specify)
10Reducing the plastic
waste their own
business creates
7.2Funding projects to
find sustainable
packaging solutions
19Only using recycled
materials to make
packaging
42Making all of their
packaging recyclable
21Going plastic-free
with packaging
% respondents
Consumers are asking UK manufacturers to take the lead
Kantar Worldpanel LinkQ survey answered by 5,084 Worldpanel Plus panelists. Feb 2018 30
Sugar & Plastic
In Summary
Gwladys Hall 31
Retailer Landscape Brand Growth
Growth stable but slow
Own label central for retailers
Cheap yes, value even more
Fresh growth prioritised
Adaptation is king
Not going away
Retailers Consolidation
Changing channels
Inflationary pressure building
2018 & beyond challenges
Economic & political issues looming
UK yet to land a Brexit deal
Consumer concerns still to address
ACQUISITION ADAPTATION ALTRUISM
32
33
Thank you
Gwladys Hall
Tel.: +44 (0)7469 371 639
For further information please contact: