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International Reserves and Production
BERR Energy Markets Outlook Natural Gas Event16th
April 2008
Paul ApplebyBP Group Economics
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
World Gas Reserves
0
100
200
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
North America S. & Cent. America Europe Africa Asia Pacific Former Soviet Union Middle East
Trillion cubic metres
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
Distribution of Gas Reserves 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Trillion cubic metres
Russia
Qatar
Iran
•
Top 3 = 56% of global reserves•
Top 10 = 75%
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
Distribution of Gas Reserves 2006 (cont’d)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Trillion cubic metres
USANigeria
Algeria
Norway
Netherlands
UK
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
A note on Reserves and Resources
Reserves
are “indentified
accumulations that can be extracted profitably with existing technology under present economic conditions”. (McCabe, p. 2113)
−
estimates depend on views about existing technology and current
economic conditions
−
most additions to reserves come from existing fields –
investing in extensions, enhanced recovery
Resources
are reserves plus all the accumulations of a fossil fuel that may eventually become available –
inherently vague definition
−
Judgments about which resources are potentially economic are very subjective
−
the warehouse concept applies to resources as well as reserves
“Historically perceptions of the amount of fossil fuel resources have had a profound impact on many political and investment decisions. In retrospect many of these perceptions have been ill founded.”
(McCabe, p.2119)
McCabe P (1998)
Energy Resources -
Cornucopia or Empty Barrel? American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin Vol
82 No 11 November
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
Estimate of World Gas Resources
Source: IEA (2005) Resources to Reserves
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
World Gas Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
North America S. & Cent. America Europe Africa Asia Pacific Former Soviet Union Middle East
Billion cubic metres
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
Distribution of Gas Production 2006
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Billion cubic metres
Russia
Canada
USA•
Top 3 = 46% of global production•
Top 10 = 66%
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
Distribution of Gas Production 2006
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Billion cubic metres
Norway
UKAlgeria
Netherlands
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
N America Europe S & CAmerica
FSU Africa Middle East Asia Pacific
Regional Growth of Gas Production
Billion cubic metres
5 year cumulative changes in natural gas production by region
1991-
1996
2001-
2006
1996-
2001
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
0 30 60
Russia
Iran
Norway
China
Egypt
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Trinidad
Turkmenistan
Nigeria
Malaysia
Kazakhstan
Oman
Growth of Gas Production
Billion cubic metres
2001-06 cumulative growth in natural gas production by country
Pipeline
LNG
Predominant transport mode:
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
Growth of Gas Trade
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Pipeline LNGBcm
Excludes intra-CIS trade
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 © BP 2007
Global Gas Supply Issues
Increasing cost of supply
−
extraction (e.g. drilling deeper, further offshore)
−
transportation (more remote sources)
−
capital cost inflation
Developing non-conventional sources
−
technology challenges
Willingness of producers to export
Geo-politics of long distance transportation
