Risk and Vulnerability Analysis – Applied in Crisis Management

Kurt PetersenProfessorLUCRAM

Contents

Situation in SwedenInternational crisesRisk and Vulnerability AnalysisFRIVA – Research ProgrammeFindings

Kurt Petersen

Lund University – Professor, Risk Analysis and ManagementPresident of LUCRAM, Lund University Centre for Risk Analysisand Management

Lund University

Founded 1666

41 000 students

2 500 ph.d. students

5 500 employees

581 professors

8 faculties

5 160 MSEK turnover

Lund Technical University13 Civ ing programs

7000 students

19 Institutions

75 thematic areas

Master programmes• Copenhagen University – Master of Disaster Management (2008)• Civil Aviation School, LTH – Making Progess in Systems Safety

Master in societal aspects of crisis management

Fire Safety Engineering (since 1986)

Civil engineer in Risk Management (since 2001)

External courses (Räddningsverket, Luftfartsstyrelsen, Kammarkollegiet)

Ph.D. courses (examples):– Complex Adaptive Systems och Crisis Management– Accident management and crisis response

Education in Risk Management

LUCRAM

Lund University Centre for Risk Analysis and Management Network at Lunds UniversityCoordination of research on risk managementContact point for external activities

Situation in Sweden

New legislation on extreme eventsSwedish Emergency Management AgencyImplementation national, regional and localResearch

New legislation

Risk and Vulnerability analysisCapability/Ability AssessmentTraining and Exercises

International disasters

Terrorism, New York, London, MadridFlooding, Central Europe, Asia, SwedenEarthquakes, South Europe, AsiaForest fires, South EuropeWind storms, Europe, Sweden

International disasters

Accidents at sea, Estonia, Herold of Free EnterpriseAccidents at land, Bhopal, SevesoDiseases, pandemi, bird flu, SARS, MCD

Risk Approach

Risk = f (E, F, Q)E = events, hazardsF = frequency, likelihoodQ = consequence

Vulnerability Approach

Risk given a specific event, situation or conditionsCapability/Ability

FRIVA – a research programme

Risk and Vulnerability AnalysisMarch 2004 until March 2010Financed by the Swedish Emergency Management AgencyResearch Capacity Establishment8 doctoral projects

FRIVA Subprojects

DP2: Risk and vulnerability assessmentmethods for analyses of criticalinterdependent infrastructuresDP3: Crisis management: preparedness, response and recoveryDP4: Crisis management and social vulnerabilityDP5: Proactive crisis management and safety culture

FRIVA Subprojects

DP6: Regional vulnerability analysisDP7: Risk and vulnerability analysis of large scale infrastructures – electricpower and drinking water supplyDP8: Risk and vulnerability analysis of large scale infrastructures – tele and IT systemsDP9: Statistical analysis and simulation of extreme events

FRIVA II

Risk and vulnerability analysis of complex socio-technical systemsCrisis management from the perspective of the user or the victimCritical infrastructures in crises

Some Findings

MethodsPractical exercises at communitylevelProcess rather than plan

Findings

Scenario based methodsSystem modelling based analyticalmethods

Findings

Broad scopeBroad participationImplementation processes

Emergency Response System

Risk and vulnerabilityERS plan Function for dissemination of ERS within organisationFunction for dissemination of ERS between organisationsFunction for continuous learning

Emergency Response Systems

Utilise emergent behaviourUtilise adaptability