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U.S. Commercial Service

Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

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Page 1: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

U.S. Commercial Service

Page 2: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

President Luis Inácio “Lula” da Silva

Took office on January 1st, 2003 Labor Party- PT First mandate - with 61.27% in 2002 Second mandate - with 60,83% in 2006 Elections October 2010

Page 3: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Top Exports from Brazil

Orange

Soy

Corn

Sugar cane

Airplanes

Coffee

Oil

Iron ore

Ethanol

Meat

Page 4: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

BRAZIL– USA

Page 5: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

1. Crisis and Recuperation

2. Economic Development

3. Trading Partners and Best Prospects

Doing Business in Brazil

Page 6: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Industrial Production During the Crisis

IBGE indicated growth of 0.7% in March

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Jan-08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-09 Feb Mar

By category, in 1st trimester 2009 compared to same period of 2008, in % :

General industry: - 14.7 Consumer goods: -8.0Capital goods: - 20.8 Durables: - 22.5Intermediate goods: - 18.1 Semi and non-durable: -3.0

Page 7: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Car SalesDuring the Crisis

Car production increased 34.2% between February and March.

08 09

Page 8: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Invest Confidence

• The main São Paulo Stock Exchange Index, the Bovespa, has risen more than 75% from its low point last October.

• Since January, R$ 5.7 billion has been invested in the Bovespa from overseas

• Bovespa (Blue) vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (Red).

Page 9: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Brazil’s Reaction to the Crisis

Government measures:

• Tax cuts such as IPI, the federal tax on domestic and imported manufactured products.

• Interest rate reduction – 9.25% per year.

• Incentives for civil construction.

• Infrastructure development.

Page 10: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

GDP growing projection for 2010The world recovering

Source: Agencia Estado

Page 11: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Brazilian GDP

Source: IBGE

6.1% 6.2%6.8%

1.3%

-1.8% -1.6%

0.5%

5.0%

6.5%

1º Qtr 08 2º Qtr 08 3º Qtr 08 4º Qtr 08 3º Qtr 09 4º Qtr 09 1º Qtr 10

1º Qtr 09 2º Qtr 09

Page 12: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

• GDP: US$ 1.58 Trillion (IMF)

• Growth Rate: 4.83 %

• Inflation Rate: 4.60 % year

• Foreign Direct Investment : US$ 35 Billion

• Interest rates, SELIC at 8.75 % year

• Foreign Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1.75 Reais

• Unemployment Rate: 7.42 %

• 190 Million Consumers with Increased Purchasing Power

Economic Indicators2010 Estimates

Source: Central Bank Brazil

Page 13: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Brazil Compared - GDP(US$ Billion)

Source: International Monetary Fund

Page 14: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Inflation Rate

Source: Agência Estado

4.50%

1.80%

8.50%

6.00%5.50%

3.50%

7.75%

4.82%4.35% 4.60%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BCB est.

2,477%

1993

Page 15: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Source: Central Bank Brazil

32.8

22.5

16.6

10.1

18.115.1

18.8

34.6

41.7

25.0

35.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 est.

Foreign Direct Investment(US$ Billion)

Page 16: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

R$ 3.50

R$ 2.75 R$ 2.60

R$ 2.25 R$ 2.14 R$ 1.95

R$ 2.30

R$ 1.74 R$ 1.75

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 est.

Foreign Exchange Rate

Source: BCB

Page 17: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Southeast – 55,09

South – 19,03

Northeast – 13,68

Center-West – 7,28

North – 4,92

Regional DisparitiesGDP share - % of total GDP - 2008

Source: International Monetary Fund

Page 18: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

2004 2008 2009

3,710,477,153

20,041,091,354

15,911,145,829

11,530,564,312

25,625,203,865

20,182,730,487

15,990,157,812

36,187,476,416

29,216,602,946

China United States (including Puerto Rico) European Union

Brazilian Imports by Economic Blocks

Page 19: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

11.21

13.9015.37

19.23

24.63

32.91

21.0017.91

21.16

24.4426.37 25.64

30.46

16.00

USA Exports USA Imports

Bilateral Trade(US$ Thousands)

Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTTI), U.S. Department of Commerce

Page 20: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2007 2008 2009

U$ Th

ousa

nd

Mexico Brazil Venezuela Colombia Chile Argentina Peru Ecuador

Brazil Compared: U.S. Exports to Latin America

Source: Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census Bureau

Page 21: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

1. Agricultural Sector2. Aerospace (Aircraft and Parts / Airports)3. Electrical Power Systems 4. Environmental 5. Franchising6. ICT - Information & Communication

Technologies7. Insurance8. Medical Equipment9. Mining10. Oil and Gas 11. Pharmaceuticals12. Safety & Security13. Transportation (Ports / Railways) 14. Travel and Tourism

Best Prospects for Sales to Brazil

Page 22: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

• Rio de Janeiro will host the first-ever Olympic

Games in South America August- September

2016, as well as some of the games for the

2014 World Cup. These two events will

generate numerous trade and investment

opportunities in several areas, for both games

and the city.

Page 23: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

ESTIMATED INVESTMENTS

• The state government of Rio de Janeiro

estimates that investments from 2010-2016

will reach US$50 billion in infrastructure,

construction, transportation, public security,

education and training, among others. Most of

those investments will occur through Public-

Private Partnerships (PPPs) under Brazil’s

Growth Acceleration Program (PAC).

Page 24: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

INVESTMENTS IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION

• There will be a huge demand for

Architecture/Construction/Engineering

(ACE) services to plan and build sport

facilities (arenas, stadiums, etc), hotels,

infrastructure and transportation projects,

as well as port and airport upgrades.

Page 25: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

INVESTMENTS IN SPORT FACILITIES

Although more than half of Rio 2016 venues are ready, since Rio hosted the 2007 Pan American Olympic Games, about 20 new facilities are to be built. They include:

•An aquatic sports stadium with 18,000 seats with an estimated construction cost of US$40 million.•An Olympic Park to host gymnastics, cycling, handball, and other sports competitions with an estimated building cost of US$200 million.•An Olympic village of 32 buildings with 12 floors each and a capacity of over 17,000 beds estimated at US$450 million.•An Olympic Tennis Center with 16 courts (US$45 million).•A renovated rowing stadium at Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon will cost approximately S$2 million.• An arena in Copacabana for beach volley (US$7 million).•The renovation of Maracanã Stadium (where the opening and closing Olympic ceremonies will be held as well as soccer games) will cost approximately US$400 million, and must be completed before 2014 to use in the 2014 Soccer World Cup.

Page 26: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

INVESTMENTS IN HOTEL/HOSPITAL FACILITIES

• In 2010, the number of visitors to the city is expected to grow

in 10% in comparison to 2008, when 1.68 million tourists came

to Rio. By the time of the 2014 Soccer World Cup and the 2016

Olympic Games this number will increase even more.

• Several hotels are being refurbished.

• The municipality of Rio may reduce taxes to attract new

investment in hotels; thereby creating opportunities for U.S.

hotel chains in refurbishment, architectural projects and

building or acquiring existing hotels.

• As for hospitals, a clinic will be built within the Olympic Village.

Page 27: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

INVESTMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE

The estimated investment in infrastructure is about US$15 billion, including US$5 billion in logistics upgrades at seaports and airports. The main projects include:

•The modernization and enlargement of the two International Airport terminals (increasing the airport's capacity from 15 million passengers per year to 25 million),•Highway widening,•Construction of “Olympic lanes”,•The Port of Rio area revitalization to include a new 30,000 square meter leisure area featuring bars, restaurants, an amphitheater, a multi-use space and parking,•Port dredging,•Construction of two new subway lines,•The creation of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system,•Housing projects (including low income housing) and•Water sanitation.

Page 28: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

INFRA-STRUCTURE MATTERS IN BRAZIL

BR US Difference

Soy production costs 187 238 51 dollars cheaper in Brazil Transportation costs 97 26 71 dollars cheaper in U.S. Port costs 7 3 4 dollars cheaper in U.S. Total 291 267 24 dollars in favor of USA

Conclusion:

To produce soy in Brazil is 51 dollars cheaper, but the logistic costs eliminates this advantage. In the end, it is 24 dollars cheaper to get the product to market in the US.

Source: Veja Magazine

Page 29: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010
Page 30: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Hypothetical Cost Buildup for an Imported Machine in US Dollars

FOB price of Product 100,000Freight 2,400Insurance (1%) 1,000

CIF Price of Product 103,400Import Duty Rate: 19% -- applied to CIF 19,646IPI: 5% -- applied to CIF + import duty 6,152ICMS: 18% -- applied to CIF + import duty + IPI 23,256Merchant Marine Tax: 25% of ocean freight cost 600Warehouse: 0.65% of CIF; or min. US$ 170, max US$ 235 235Terminal Handling Charges: average US$ 100 per container 100Contribution to Custom Broker's union 2.2% CIF; or min of US$ 71, max US$ 160 160Custom Brokerage Fee: average 0.65% of CIF or min US$ 170, max US$ 450

450SISCOMEX Fee 30Typical Cargo Transportation charge 35Typical Bank Costs: 2% of FOB 2,000

FINAL COST 156,064

Page 31: Brazil igly serafim ppt combined 09 01 2010

Points of Contact:

São Paulo : Igly Serafim, Senior Commercial [email protected]@trade.govPhone: 55-11 5186-7187

[email protected]: 55-61 3312-7481 / Fax: 55 –61 3312-7656

Belo [email protected]: 55-31 3213-1583 / Fax: 55-31 3213-1575

Recife :[email protected]: 81-3416-3075 / Fax: 81-3231-1906

Rio de [email protected]: 55-21 3823-2417 / Fax 55-21 3823-2424

THANK YOU !!