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Brazilian Agrometerological MonitoringActual tools and the future
Eduardo Delgado AssadEmbrapa CNPTIA - Brazil
CAgM Meeting on AgrometeorologyWMO- Nairobi Kenya 21 to 24 October 2008
Agritempo
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
The Agrometeorological Monitoring System (Agritempo) monitors and divulges,
since 2003, the climatic risk mapping out aiming at reducing possible crop losses.
www.agritempo.gov.br
• stores and manages daily data of 1280 weather stations;
• stores historical data from 4870 meteorological stations;
• manages more than 50,000,000 records;
• stores and uses data from estimates of 1 to 15 days;
• allows the registration of users with different profiles;
• incorporates migration process and validation of data received from institutions;
• provides resources for generation of graphics, research and statistical summary;
• agricultural zoning;
• daily generation (automatic), 27 agroclimatological bulletins
• daily generation (automatic) of 810 thematic maps for all of Brazil
Characteristics
Agritempo
Agritempo
INMETCPTECUDs EmbrapaLamepe/ItepCemigCooxupéSimeparFepagroEpagriDep. Hidrologia ALEBDA+INGÁUnicampUSPInst. FlorestalUnespCDVale
Partners:
Agritempo
• National Meterology• Research Centre of
Weather and Clima• Universities (4)• Privates Companies (4)• Public Companies (4)
• Individual Farmers• Cooperatives• Energy Companies
Partners Characteristics
Obs: All datas are free
devices -gathering
data
Institutionalrepositories
Data integrated
repositories
I2I1
C1
I3b
C2
C3
I3
I3a
Integration of data from various sources
Agritempo
ways of sending and receiving data
Phone
Fax
Station Automatic
Software unloads
in computer
Typi
ng
Typing
WebMGE
OK
WEB
Base de dadosAgritempo
ConverterData
Upl
oad
FTP
Converter
Dow
nload
Agritempo
Agritempo
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
CD
Val
e
CE
MIG
CM
RH
SE
CN
PA
F
CN
PH
CN
PS
O
CO
OX
UP
E
CP
AA
CP
AC
CP
AC
T
CP
TEC
DH
MA
L
EP
AG
RI
FEP
AG
RO
IAC IF
INM
ET
IPG
O
SC
T/P
E
SE
DA
M
SIM
EP
AR
UN
ES
P
UN
ICA
MP
US
P
Num
ber o
f sta
tions
Partners
Distribution of stations by state
AgritempoPartners
Previsão de Safra
Real Network Monitoring
VirtualNetwork
Monitoring
Rain, Temperature
Network Virtual –TRMM
Advantages and Disadvantages ofestimations from virtual network
• Good estimatiom oftemperatura
• Good identification ofno rain day
• High density of data
• Bad estimation of rainquantity
• Problems to correcthumid identificationareas
Agritempo
Virtual Station TRMMVarginha - MG Real Station NatMet
Varginha - MG
T T
P PDryperiod
Dryperiod
01/01/2008 to 20/10/2008
Agritempo
Products
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
IrrigationNeeds-National level-State level-Countie level
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
Water Contents
-National level-State level-Countie level
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
Precipitation
-National level-State level-Countie level
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
PrecipitationsForecast1 day until 5 days(meteorologicalmodels)6 days to 15 days(estocasticalmodels)
-National level-State level-County level
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
Rain andTemperatureData critizesAnd verification
Blue- estimated dataOrange-doubtful data
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
Rain MapsFor All country
Brazilian Agricultural Zoning
Agribusiness GDP in 2006: US$ 180 billions (33% GDP - US$ 500 billion)
Agribusiness Exportations: US$ 35 billions (42%)Grain production in 2007 :133,4 millions tons
Program coordinated by the Department of Agriculture and EMBRAPA (National Institute for Agricultural Research) since 1995
Federal Farm Credit PolicyUS$ 8 billion (US$ 2.5 billion for small farmers
Agritempo
Loss of production: 91/92 e 92/93 (Source: IPEA/UNB)
Product S. PAULO BAHIA Northeast
Rice 30% 34% 47%
Bean 21% 34% 41%
Corn 16% 37% 71%
Soybean 16% 29% -
Soybean-Irrigated
- - 32%
Cotton 22% 22% 81%
Castor Oil - - 87%
Cause: Cause: WaterWater deficiencydeficiency in in criticalcritical phasesphases: 60% : 60%
Agritempo
Main ObjectiveDecrease the climate risks
dry spells during flowering and grain-filling (60%)excessive rain during the harvest period (30%)
ProductPlanting Calendars
Crops: Corn, Soybean, Beans, Rice (Wheat, Sorghum,
Fruits, Coffee and biofuel crops)
Periods: Dekad (10 days), Oct to Dec (Jan to Dec)
Counties / Municipal districts
Macro-regions: Central, Southeast ,South and Northeast
Risk: less than or equal to 20%
Agritempo
General Methodology
Simulation of cumulative water balance for differentsoil types, planting dates, cycle lengths, groundstations (different models (DSSAT, BIPZONSarrazon, CLIPS etc)
Decision criteria / Risk Analysis:a) WRSI during reproductive stage ≥ Threshold Value(80% of all simulated years) WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction IndexWRSI = actual / maximum evapotranspiration
b) Excessive rain during harvest
Agritempo
Data Base
Length of four growth stages (Initial, Vegetative, Reproductive and Maturity) for earlyand normal cultivarsLength of total growing period
Crop coefficient (Kc)
Soil water holding capacity
Rainfall
Evapotranspiration
Agritempo
CLIMATIC risks zoning Rain stations distribution
Agritempo
0
“criterion”
33ªª phenologicalphenological phasephase
0 1 2 3 4 5 33 34 35• • •days
WRS
I
f wrsi(x)
1
WRSI= value
P
•••••••
•
••
••
•
•
•
••
Risk probability models
Actually Zoning Crops• Rice• Beans• Corn• Wheat• Soybeans• Sorghun• Coffee• Cotton• Castor Bean
• Apple• Vigna beans• Banana• Cashew nuts• Barley• Maninhot• Oil Palm (2007)• Sunflower (2007)• Peanuts (2007)• Rape seed(2007)
Agritempo
Oil Palm possible area production with low risk– Bahia State
OilOil PalmPalm PotentialPotentialOil yield 3000 Kg/ha/year
Oil 22%
Sunflower possible area production with low risk
South region
Sunflower possible area production with low risk
Others regions
SunflowerSunflowerProductionProduction(2005)(2005)[[OilOil] ] -- 44% 44%
OilOil YieldYield 430 430 kg/ha/kg/ha/yearyear
Peanuts possible area production with low risk
Oil Yield – 600 kg/ha/year
YieldYield 600kg/ha/600kg/ha/yearyear
Castor Bean possible surface production with low risk
Oil Yield ~ 1000 Kg/ha/year
Soybean possible surface production with low risk
Oil Yield 500 Kg/ha/year
Benefits after zoning
~41002564Corn
30001808soybean
After1996-2006Kg/ha
Before1990-1995Kg/ha
ProductsYield
Agritempo
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
Green-OptimalData plantingFrom climaticRiskszoning
Forecast system of soybean crop yieldfor Brazil
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
Quantify losses caused by water deficiency
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
Accumulation of Biomass = f(Rad.Solar, Temp., Rain)
Production of grains
Estimation of maximum productivity in each agroecological area
Pp (k
g/ha
)
Time
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
Results for Soybeans – BrasilHarvests: 2000/2001 to 2005/2006
Comparison with data from CONAB*
CONAB is the national company responsible to make the forecast of harvest
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
Prod
uctio
n (m
illio
n to
ns)
AgritempoCONAB
AgritempoAgrometeorological Monitoring System
WebAgritecAgrometeorological Monitoring System – Municipal Scale
•15 day weather forecast for all Brazilian cities;
•Monitoring the date of planting (based on agricultural zoning);
•Crop Monitoring (based on agricultural zoning);
•Virtual diagnosis of disease;
•Recommendation of cultivars;
•Recommendation for fertilization;
•Videos of farming practices;
•News.
WebAgritecAgrometeorological Monitoring System Agrometeorological Monitoring System – Municipal Scale
Grey are the optimal data planting from climatic risks zoning,and green are the optimal rain planting during the actual saison
WebAgritecAgrometeorological Monitoring System Agrometeorological Monitoring System – Municipal Scale
Green are de optimal planting date from climatic risks zoning, and the blue graphic is water balance in each date