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Part of the BRE Trust
BRE National Solar Centre and Market Assessment Jonny Williams
NSC Project Manager
March 2013
Solar can no longer be ignored
Weekly Installs
Solar can no longer be ignored
We need a steady
market of
20MW/week (6,000
installs) to be
800MW/year
6.98MW / 1,849 installs last
week
Weekly Installs
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
ber
Dec
em
ber
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
ber
Dec
em
ber
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ob
er
2010 2011 2012
Inst
alle
d c
apac
ity
(kW
)
Anaerobic digestion MicroCHP pilot
Hydro Wind
PhotovoltaicsFIT figures only
Solar is the technology people want (or wanted)
What have we achieved recently?
• We have FIT’s set out to 2015 (8% to 12% returns)
• RO support now fixed to 2017 (8% to 10% returns)
• No cap – target 20GW by 2020
• So why are Sales slow?
• Have we confused the market – No FIT anymore? missed
the boat? the returns not worth doing?
• Installed price reductions match tariff reductions
• Energy prices continue to rise (+8%/year)
• Customers can forward buy electricity (well 50%)
• Messages need to be clear
5
Is the market confused?
What have we achieved recently?
6
Impact Assessment
Size IA Installed
Price / kWp
Today’s
Price/kWp
< 4kW £2493
4 – 10kW £2207
10 – 50kW £1956
50 – 150kW £1834
150 – 250kW £1659
250 – 5000kW £1265
Standalone £1265
Aggregators
< 4kW
£2231
Aggregators
> 4kW
£1893
What have we achieved recently?
7
Size IA Installed
Price / kWp
Today’s
Price/kWp
< 4kW £2493 £1750
4 – 10kW £2207 £1700
10 – 50kW £1956 £1400
50 – 150kW £1834 £1300
150 – 250kW £1659 £1200
250 – 5000kW £1265 £1100
Standalone £1265 £1000
Aggregators
< 4kW
£2231 £1500
Aggregators
> 4kW
£1893 £1500
Impact Assessment
8
PV 4kWp | 3400kWh/year |
25y FIT | 25y usage|
14p electricity
April 2011 – 41p FIT
PV 4kWp |3400kWh/year
|20y FIT |25y usage
15p electricity
November 2012 – 15.44p FIT
-£14,000 Installation -£7,000 Installation
-£2,800 Inverter/maint -£1,400 Inverter/maint
£34,850 FIT £10,880 FIT
£1,318 Export (50%) £1,530 Export (50%)
£8,450 Own usage (50%) £9,053 Own usage (50%)
£27,817 Net benefit £13,063 Net benefit
10.8% IRR 11.1% IRR
April 2011 v Nov 2012
Smaller outlay for same returns
Customers can now afford larger systems
Solar works – New MCS Guide MCS Design Zone
kWh/kWp
Zone 1 985 kWh/kWp Zone 2 1132 Zone 3 1023 Zone 4 1093 Zone 5W 950 Zone 5E 972 Zone 6 937 Zone 7W 933 Zone 7E 866 Zone 8S 868 Zone 8E 880 Zone 9S 906 Zone 9E 907 Zone 10 918 Zone 11 893 Zone 12 963 Zone 13 922 Zone 14 835 Zone 15 944 Zone 16 877 Zone 17 837 Zone 18 768 Zone 19 735 Zone 20 714 Zone 21 847 9
Higher generation figures
Comparison – new MCS with Actual on a poor year
for weather
10
SAP = 820kWh/kWp
Evidence from installs
Comparison – new MCS with Actual on a poor year
for weather
11
Evidence from installs
SAP = 820kWh/kWp
New MCS= 890kWh/kWp
12
SAP = 820kWh/kWp
New MCS= 890kWh/kWp
Actual performance in
2012
= 960kWh/kWp
Comparison – new MCS with Actual on a poor year
for weather
Evidence from installs
13
SAP = 820kWh/kWp
New MCS= 890kWh/kWp
Actual performance in
2012
= 960kWh/kWp
House in Durham – wettest Summer on
record!!!!
Comparison – new MCS with Actual on a poor year
for weather
Evidence from installs
What have we achieved recently?
14
Technology improving
Cell Type 2012 2013 2014 2015
Multi 16.8% - 17.0% 17.5% - 18.0% 18.2% - 18.6% 19.0% - 21.0%
Mono 18.5% - 19.0% 19.5% - 20.0% 20.5% - 21.8% 21.0% - 23.0%
•Improved quality of silicon
•Improved coatings (Nano AR)
•Busbar less technology
•Reduced thickness of wafers (190 to 140microns)
•Back contact technology
Module Type 2012 2013 2014 2015
Multi 245Wp – 250Wp 250Wp – 260Wp 260Wp – 265Wp 270Wp – 290Wp
Mono 265Wp – 270Wp 275Wp – 280Wp 290Wp – 295Wp 300Wp – 320Wp
•Based on 60 cell modules
•Prices unlikely to change in 2013, but 5-8% reduction in 2014 & 2015
•High voltage Glass Glass modules for Ground Mounts from late 2013
15
Solar Module
All modules look the same
BUT ARE THEY THE SAME?
16
EL Camera Image
Good Mono Good
Multi
17
Poor Quality
Micro cracks not visible to the eye
18
Poor Quality
Be careful as this is not
picked up by MCS
Not all modules are the
same, but prices are
similar
Is it worth the risk?
Close up showing more cracks
19
Markets
Domestic Social Housing
Ground Mounts Commercial
20
Do not be tempted to do silly things!
21
Go for quality!
22
Be SMART and provide quality
SMART - Solar
sell - SMART
design - SMART
look - SMART
work - SMART
What we need to do?
– The BRE National Solar Centre launched providing an
“independent voice of Solar” and developing the needs of a
Sustainable Industry including:
– “Solar Technical Code of Practice”
– “Best Practice Solar Guide for Planners”
– “Best Practice Solar Guide for Grid Connections”
– “Solar Industry Guide for Funders”
– “Industry guide for customers”
– “Records of installed system performance”
– “Industry working with DECC on developing the Solar Strategy to
2020 and beyond”
23
We are moving forward
BRE National Solar Centre
1. Objectives and purpose
2. Market Overview
3. NSC Overview
4. Areas of focus
5. Core functions
6. Opportunities
7. How to get involved
BRE National Solar Centre
1. Objectives
– To deliver independent research led knowledge and guidance for the
solar industry in the UK
– Support the UK solar PV industry – innovate, grow, thrive
– Independent guidance for building owners and occupiers to make
informed choices
– Integrate solar PV and construction industries
– Realise opportunities in building integrated PV (BIPV)
– Support ground mounted solar and large roofs market
– Provide information for investors, banks and construction industry
BRE National Solar Centre
2. Market Overview
Solar Parks
– Currently 180 solar parks at pre-tender, tender or construction stage.
– Represents £840m investment; approximately 0.8GW
BIPV
– Market for BIPV set to rise 5 fold globally by 2017 (Pike Research, Q3 2012)
– Approximately 100 products available in the UK at present
Domestic Commercial
- Inclusion in Green Deal Many major contracts
- Needs some positive PR E.g. retailers
- Installation rates creeping up
Solar Farms with planning consent
15th January 2013
3. Overview and Update
Centre to be based in St Austell, mid Cornwall
Initially 5 full time staff – technical expertise & well networked
3 part time staff + admin
BREEAM Excellent new build offices at St Austell Business Park
Open for business in April 2013
3. Overview and Update, continued
Why Cornwall?
– Pioneering “Eco-communities Partnership”
– Strong vision for the “green economy”
– Leading on renewables – skills and technologies
– Solar developments focused in the South West
– Cornwall Council extremely supportive and helpful
– Many solar companies keen to develop their businesses
– Eden Project only minutes from St Austell
4. Areas of Focus
i) Development of large solar – commercial roofs and ground mounted
solarcentury.co.uk
4. Areas of Focus
ii) Development of building integrated PV and related approaches
4. Areas of Focus
iii) Support domestic solar PV and solar thermal markets
solarcentury.co.uk
5. Core Functions
– A recognised evidence base for UK knowledge and expertise in PV
For example publications on:
– Technical Code of Practice
– Grid connection guidance for DNOs and developers
– Planning guidance
– Guide for commercial roofs
– Guide for ground mount installations
Open Collaboration - Developed in partnership with relevant regulatory
authorities, industry associations, companies and government
5. Core Functions, continued….
– Data analysis of national PV generation figures
5. Core Functions, continued (2)
Due diligence technical services for funders of large installations
In line with Best Practice Guide for Ground Mount Installations
Development to focus on low grade or mixed use land
5. Core Functions, continued (3)
– Provide direct support to Cornish companies
-By directing research and best practice to innovative Cornish SMEs
-Drive further costs reductions to drive uptake
– Promote the solar PV industry accurately and positively
-Promote development in the appropriate locations
– Training: complex design, network operators, local authorities
-Added value training courses
– Product development e.g. support Building Integrated PV
-Bringing BREs network and influence to develop this market
6. Opportunities:
– Grid level storage opportunities to
accommodate solar production
– Smart grids / electric vehicles / future cities
– Domestic storage
Leading to load balancing and supply/demand
matching & greater supply from solar
- Quantification of embodied
environmental and social impacts
of solar production
6. Opportunities, continued:
– University linkages – Exeter, Sheffield, Northumbria, Heriot-Watt
– BRE Chair Sustainable Engineering Informatics at Cardiff University
– The integration of Building Information Modelling (BIM) with renewable
energy simulation - RenewBIM
– Better integration with modern construction practices
6. Opportunities, continued (2)
– International opportunities
– E.g. Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan
– Joint research projects and certification opportunities
– UK can export its solar expertise worldwide
7. How to get involved
– Cornish businesses eligible for direct support
– National vision and ambition to support UK solar
– Research opportunities
– Product development
– Independently produced information
Thank you
For more information contact:
Jonny Williams
NSC Project Manager
01792 630107
