Breaking the Breaking the HydroHydro--illogical illogical

Cycle:Cycle:

Progress or Progress or Status Quo for Status Quo for

Drought Drought Management in the Management in the

U.S.?U.S.?

Donald A. Wilhite, Director

School of Natural Resources

Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle:An Institutional Challenge

Crisis Managemen

t

Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle

• Accepting drought as a normal part of climate.

Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle

• Accepting drought as a normal part of climate.

• Adopting a pro-active (preparedness) vs. reactive (crisis management) approach for drought

management.

• Understanding drought impacts as an indicator of

vulnerability.

– Vulnerability assessment is a crucial element of drought planning.

Drought impacts today are more complex since more economic

sectors are affected, creating more conflicts between water

users.

Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle

• Accepting drought as a normal part of climate.

• Adopting a pro-active (preparedness) vs. reactive (crisis management) approach for drought

management.

• Understanding drought impacts as an indicator of

vulnerability.

– Vulnerability assessment is a crucial element of drought planning.

• Understanding society as dynamic—each drought

event is different and superimposed over existing

societal characteristics.

– Impacts reflect changing vulnerabilities; the need

for adaptation and mitigation.

Population Growth (% change, 1990-2000)

The Cycle of Disaster ManagementThe Cycle of Disaster Management

Adopting a new paradigm for drought management!

Progress Towards Drought Risk Management in the U.S.

• Widespread drought conditions/serious and diverse

impacts—late 1980s to early 1990s.

Progress Towards Drought Risk Management in the U.S.

• Widespread drought conditions/serious and diverse

impacts—late 1980s to early 1990s.

• Formation of the National Drought Mitigation Center

in 1995.

– Catalyst for change

– Program emphasis� Vulnerability ReductionVulnerability Reduction

• Improved monitoring and awareness

• Risk/vulnerability assessment

• Mitigation planning and policy development

• National Drought Policy Act, 1998.

• National Drought Policy Commission Report, 2000.

Progress Towards Drought Risk Management in the U.S.

• National Drought Preparedness Act

– Introduced in U.S. Congress in 2001, 2003, and 2005.

• Concept of National Integrated Drought Information

System (NIDIS) proposed in 2004.

• Passage of the NIDIS bill by Congress, 2006.

• Continued widespread, severe drought to present

has kept drought as a national focus.

• Climatic trends in west (warming, reduced snowpack,

water scarcity).

• IPCC 2007 report—more frequent, severe droughts of longer duration.

Moving towards a more risk-based management approach

• Components of effective drought planning

– Monitoring, comprehensive and integrated early warning systems, and effective/timely delivery systems.

– Risk assessment to identify vulnerable groups, sectors,

and regions

– Mitigation measures identified and implemented.

– Policy development to drive behavioral change at all

levels.

• Elements for success

– Awareness—public and political

– Political will/support

– Stakeholder recognition of the need for change.

Support for RISK-BASED DROUGHT MITIGATION PLANNING . . . .

has been from the BOTTOM UP!

State/Local/Tribal

Regional

Federal

Response Mitigation

Increasing need for timely, reliable climate/water supply assessments

Increasing need for higher resolution analysis for policy/decision support

Increasing need for more reliable seasonal forecasts/outlooks

Progress has been impressive . . . .

more products on the way!

Drought Monitoring at the Continental Scale

Assessing and Archiving Impacts

The progression to drought mitigation planning . . . . .

Demand for mitigation

planning

Development of new

monitoring tools

a synergistic relationship!!

National Integrated Drought Information System

NIDIS

2004 2007

(social factors)

Widely adopted as the new paradigm for drought

management.

Drought Management in the U.S.: Next Steps!

• NIDIS provides an opportunity to improve our drought

early warning system, linking federal, state, and local efforts, it also provides the opportunity to:

– Build greater resilience to drought through improve

planning and adaptation.

• More emphasis on drought mitigation planning.

• Federal government needs to provide leadership/incentives.

– Increase emphasis on risk management to lessen

the need for reactive, costly response measures.

• Mitigation is more cost-effective than emergency response.

– Form a coherent national drought policy that ultimately reduces societal vulnerability.

– Manage for climate variability and change!

©2009 The Board of Regents of the University of Nebraska. All rights reserved.

Thanks!

dwilhite2@unl.eduSchool of Natural Resources

snr.unl.edu